Thanks to @Jeff Booth, every day I spend a little time contemplating:
- How can I further extract myself from the fiat system, of which I am deeply entrenched?
- How can I transfer more of my time, energy, and purchasing power into the #Bitcoin network?
It really comes down to this simple decision matrix:
OPTION #1: If you would rather have life get continually more expensive while quality gets worse, then choose to save in dollars.
OPTION #2: If you would rather have life get continually more affordable while quality improves, then choose to save in #Bitcoin.
I used multiple models, TA, and liquidity metrics to come up with it.
It’s still no more than a guess. I know it will be wrong. I just hope to be generally correct in vector terms.
Regarding purchasing power…
Don’t miss out on the upside of #bitcoin because you are fearful of the occasional downside volatility.
It’s amazing to me how many otherwise intelligent people pay this opportunity cost while using volatility as an excuse.
They are falling further and further behind.
Three practical tips if you find bitcoin’s volatility intolerable:
1. Small position size.
2. Don’t use leverage.
3. Hedge. It’s not that hard to do.
Maybe. But that’s not how I make my investment decisions.
Also, I know of several intelligent, very well known people who believe that we are in or headed into a recession, and that stocks and bitcoin are going to crash hard in the near future.
What if, thanks to the Federal Reserve, credit events have essentially been replaced by debasement events?
Can major, traditional credit events even occur in the age of central bank manipulation?
(H/t to Jordi Visser and Raoul Pal)
Actually, I mislabeled it as a #MuleDeerstr.
Instead, it’s a #WhiteTailstr
I used to only see mule deer in Colorado, but there has been an influx of whitetails over the recent years.
I hear you.
Remember that it takes time to build out a new decentralized, secure, permissionless monetary and financial network for the world.
Patient hodlers and builders will be rewarded in due time.
If there is any risk for investors in the markets today, it's the risk of sitting on the sidelines--waiting for the terrible and *inevitable* #recession, constantly heralded by Doom and Gloomers--while risk assets and, especially, #bitcoin melt faces in 2025.
With a 12-14 month outlook, I continue to think that this is a terrible time to be overly bearish or conservative.
#macro
#investing
🐂
Global M2 monetary supply is already starting to increase again.
Three examples of how:
- Lower interest rates literally translate immediately into lower variable/short term debt payments (e.g., HELOCs, credit card loans, small business loans), meaning higher cash savings for individuals and businesses... that is, higher M2.
- A weaker US dollar means better foreign currency exchange rates, and easier (US denominated) debt repayments around the world... increasing M2.
- Economic growth means more bank lending and growth of M2.
The #bitcoin carry trade (aka, “speculative arbitrage”) remains the trade of the decade.
It’s hiding in plain sight from the majority of Wall Street traders and investors.
Warning:
Vehemently stacking sats may greatly reduce the time needed for you to reach financial independence and optionality.
#Bitcoin and chill at your own risk.
After a much-needed multi-month sabbatical from doing any podcast interviews, I'm looking forward to getting back into the action this week!
Upcoming interviews include an always lively, quarterly Mastermind discussion with @preston, @HODL, and @joecarlasare; as well as one-on-one conversations with @stephanlivera and @bram.
The transition from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull is complete. 🐂 It's time to get the party started...
#macro
#Bitcoin
#investing
There's a strong possibility that the next bull market will begin, in earnest, at 2pm ET on Sept 18, 2024.... Although it may start slowly at first while market participants wrap their heads around the FOMC statement over the ensuing days/weeks.
Late 1990s style.
Could be a humdinger for #bitcoin.
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