Oddbean new post about login | logout If there is any risk for investors in the markets today, it's the risk of sitting on the sidelines--waiting for the terrible and *inevitable* #recession, constantly heralded by Doom and Gloomers--while risk assets and, especially, #bitcoin melt faces in 2025. With a 12-14 month outlook, I continue to think that this is a terrible time to be overly bearish or conservative. #macro #investing 🐂
It’s been a long journey stacking sats
Dude, where the fuck have you been. We have been firmly in the Greater Depression for almost 4 years now. Stop believing the news. Weve had hyperinflation that is widely under reported on purpose. Job market is shit, pay is horrible, grocery bills are astronomical, and overall we are going through hell together. Compare it to the previous great depression and you will discover we are way more fucked financially now than then.
Since when does inflation equal depression?
To be honest I was about to teach you a lesson in economics, politics, and how legalized propaganda works. Then I realized it is not my responsibility to educate people. At least not without getting paid first. So if you want an real answer with a short explanation video lesson. That will be 1,000,000 satoshis please. Otherwise take care, good luck, and have a wonderful day.
Let's gooooo
I like nostr:nprofile1qqspnzgrfett3asxcuj0gksje6z2zxzpvgd27uvz58m9vsuqh8zzw6cpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgjwaehxw309ac82unsd3jhqct89ejhxqg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0rjj54p formula: - Create value for others - Spend less than you earn - Save in a money that nobody can create for free (#bitcoin #DCA)
Dr. Jeff, do you believe the Global M2 Supply will increase by a substantial amount even without any crisis like COVID? If yes, what factors would mainly cause the Global M2 Supply to increase without a major crisis?
Global M2 monetary supply is already starting to increase again. Three examples of how: - Lower interest rates literally translate immediately into lower variable/short term debt payments (e.g., HELOCs, credit card loans, small business loans), meaning higher cash savings for individuals and businesses... that is, higher M2. - A weaker US dollar means better foreign currency exchange rates, and easier (US denominated) debt repayments around the world... increasing M2. - Economic growth means more bank lending and growth of M2.
Also watch China & the international stage. Japan too. Next 12 months are going to melt faces.
another way to put this is that it simply HAS to keep increasing for the system to remain stable. If you look at a chart of US M2, it's been increasing exponentially for the past 50+ years. It's the debt based system and rising debt within that system that requires continual expansion of the money supply.
It seems to me that gold and silver are likely to outperform bonds on the defensive side of portfolios. I can’t imagine holding TLT while SPY is at ATH, rates are dropping, and M2 growing. Continue to be constructive BTC and well capitalized BTC miners for the foreseeable future.