Oddbean

That would be beyond life changing. It feels similar to the China ban in 2021 stifling the $100K price point, there will be some unforeseen “action” by Political forces to halt such a parabolic rise to $475K. I like the case you make, next 16 months should be interesting. Cheers

Great conversation. Thanks Jeff and Stefan. nostr:nevent1qqsxjl3r9a3ytx7uluqrz30x8k6n4t6thdn4w2wk35ke5nfwx9pz24qpr4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezucnfw33k76twv4ezuum0vd5kzmp0qgst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgrqsqqqqqp4e6r4l

Maybe. But that’s not how I make my investment decisions. Also, I know of several intelligent, very well known people who believe that we are in or headed into a recession, and that stocks and bitcoin are going to crash hard in the near future.

Great episode! I understand your logic as you explained(thank you!). My only question is, does the unemployment picture play into your thesis given that it now appears that the trend is up? Keep up the great work.

@Dr. Jeff don’t you think since we only really have 2 cycles -2017 and 2021 where a decent percentage of people knew about bitcoin that 2021 cycle is just as likely to be the norm and 2017? Also as an asset grows larger and larger wouldn’t there be smaller returns? We had only a 3x from peak to peak from 2017-2021. Trying to wrap my head around 475k. Want it to be true but I expect with wars, and things getting more chaotic that there will always be someone to blame for bitcoin not reaching the price point we think. Was burned by the 100k fever in 2021 so that doesn’t help.

i think it really depends, mostly on the level of money printing, and the health of the economy it kinda looks like a trend of declining growth into the 2021 but you have to bear in mind that while that was happening half the businesses were shut down, while at the same time the money printer was dialed up to 11 i'm of the opinion that it's going to do a sigma curve because this time around the economy is still fairly strong, businesses are not shut down, we have a few wars but mostly they are only causing a little bit of a problem with some food supply (ukraine and wheat and some other things) and the transit through the Suez is being choked, every other trade route is still functioning and there really hasn't been any major droughts or other big limiters on food markets but this might be the middle of the curve, so it might be relatively flat, i don't think it's going to shrink as much as the last two progressions expanded, and inflation is high while business is not totally tanking... so i'm still betting on a 250-500k this cycle, 250 is flat (same as 2020) 500k is the start of a sigma curve second half people are skeptical about hyperbitcoinization but when you realise that the average life expectancy of a fiat currency is 27 years, the euro is due to die by next cycle and the market cap of bitcoin and its penetration into retail marketplaces continues to progress, and when it is common that you can zap for your coffee or your beer we will see a second phase of the bitcoin valuation that's my opinion anyway, but what that means in terms of real value - probably bitcoin vs bread is gonna stay flat, just that the fiat price of bread is going to moon