I am thrilled to share my new essay

"Stranded: How Bitcoin is Saving Wasted Energy and Expanding Financial Freedom in Africa"

I was profoundly moved by what I saw on a recent trip to Kenya and Malawi.

If this essay can show you even 1% of what inspired me, that's a win… here’s an overview:

We begin in Bondo, a small town in Malawi, a country where only 11% of the population has access to electricity.

The nation suffers 6-8 hours of blackouts a day, but the power in Bondo is consistent because of Bitcoin mining.

The town got its first electricity in 2016, and now is expanding its grid, thanks to Bitcoin, which is buying 100% of the electricity that the micro-hydro stations cannot sell, and giving precious capital to the power company so it can expand operations.

At night, demand dwindles, and in remote places like Bondo, there’s no one else to buy the consistent hydro power.

Enter Bitcoin, powered by internet services like Starlink. A datacenter from Gridless now saves the wasted energy and is powering the community forward.

The big realization: virtually all power generation, especially in rural places, wastes energy.

Bitcoin fixes this.

We are told Bitcoin is a waste of energy but the truth is the opposite.

NOT Bitcoin mining is a waste of energy.

And the kicker: Bitcoin miners create heat.

This heat will be used for productive uses.

General heating in cold climates, and in a place like Bondo? Drying tea, fruit, or cocoa.

Profit from mining won’t just be profit - cost, it will be (profit + profit from externality) - cost.

For context: Malawi is a country that just suffered an IMF-led 44% currency devaluation.

Already one of the poorest nations in the world, where most people save in cash, now citizens can only afford 56% of what they could a few months ago. Per the IMF, more devaluation is on the way.

The kwacha is a disastrous wage technology. Once again, enter Bitcoin, a vastly superior savings mechanism.

The first Bitcoin meetup is happening in the Malawi’s capital this month. We are very early with adoption in this region—2020 in El Salvador terms—but this adoption will turn from a trickle into a torrent.

Up north in Kenya, Gridless has geothermal mines, too. I visited one.

It’s a remarkable site: a humming hut on the site of a lake with a Starlink on top, eating all of the electricity that a water pump does not use: perfectly solarpunk.

Kenya is the world’s largest exporter of cut flowers. There are tons of sites like this, generating power for irrigation, all over the country. All of them waste energy.

Geothermal is beautifully consistent, but the demand is not. Bitcoin fixes this.

Gridless operations like these are generally profitable within the first two years. Now there's biomass, where the company has just launched data centers at sugar and sisal processing factories which before couldn't find buyers for excess electricity.

But now Bitcoin is buying.

This sounds great so far…

But for the hundreds of millions of Africans who don’t have internet access, how are they supposed to benefit?

Enter KG, whose company Machankura provides Bitcoin access to people with no internet.

This is done through USSD — a SMS-type protocol.

The user texts a number, then gets a decision tree, and can send, receive, barter, and purchase a variety of things, all without data.

This is a custodial service for now — but KG and team have plan to make SIM cards signing devices and even Lightning touch points so that people can self-custody and be their own bank without the internet.

A true civilizational leap forward.

Critical: there are 700 million women in Africa, but very very few use Bitcoin.

Marcel Lorraine aims to change that.

A Kenyan entrepreneur who has fearlessly helping schools in Kibera, two years ago she launched Bitcoin Dada, a program to educate women and girls about Bitcoin.

Marcel runs classes every week, with several cohorts per year.

The task is huge but she insists on pushing forward.

She argues Bitcoin can give macro freedom for communities and countries, yes, but also micro freedom at home for women who traditionally take a back seat in finance.

Finally: independence from dependence is a key concept

Femi Longe, director of BTrust Builders, is trying to make that happen.

He’s running a program to train African developers and help them contribute to Bitcoin, to take careers in the industry or become contributors to core.

As Jack Dorsey says, if Bitcoin is going to be used around the world, it has to be made around the world.

Femi refuses to accept a future like today, where cars are made in the West and bought by Africans.

The Bitcoin infrastructure needs to be made in Africa.

The way these pieces could fit together is astonishing.

Unlike in the West, where adoption might mean centralized pools and ETFs, in Africa adoption will mean off-grid mining and potentially millions of self-custodying users, powered by SIM cards.

Africans need Bitcoin, yes.

But Bitcoin needs Africa.

That was blazing clear from my visit last month.

At the end of the day, who is going to help bring electricity and high-quality currency — the building blocks of progress — to hundreds of millions of Africans?

Bill Gates? The UN? The World Bank?

No, they won’t.

But Bitcoin might.

Read the full story at Bitcoin Magazine:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/check-your-financial-privilege/stranded-bitcoin-saving-wasted-energy-in-africa?new https://image.nostr.build/c5da77c09bea43b86a45ce22880dac783a055274b045e5be3b6aa29c41383762.jpg


It could.


BREAKING: #Bitcoin reaches $40,000 for like the millionth time since 2021.


What’s wrong with you?


It was overbought, especially in the setting of decline global M2 since January 1.


Lots of confusion out there. Let’s keep it simple.

#Bitcoin is:
- Decentralized
- Secure
- Scarce
- Stateless
- Permissionless
- Energy Money

It’s not a tech company.

It has no cash flows and it never will.

It uses a lot of energy to maintain its unique properties (see above), and it always will. This is a feature, not a bug. Don’t apologize for it.

GM.


Net Liquidity and Global M2 Update:

US Net Liquidity (upper chart) after a local low in late-December 2023, US net liquidity is trying hard to break out of its sideways channel that it has been trapped in since April 2022.

OPINION #1: Positive in the near-term for US small and mid-cap equities, which have recently experienced sizable drawdowns.

Global M2 (approximate; lower chart) tried and failed to break through resistance of its 33-month channel and turned slightly lower. Still in the upper end of its 33-month range.

OPINION #2: I expect worldwide risk-on assets to continue to chop sideways near local highs or drift lower in the near-term, until trends materially change. These may include: #bitcoin, #gold, FAANG+ stocks, and $QQQ, among others.

(Not individual investment advice! For infotainment purposes only!) https://image.nostr.build/a8d7be678b8619d85433eaad027519572868e4ba86a4f0335cb1101b83add2e6.jpg


$40k-45k 🤝

https://x.com/vailshirecap/status/1714741135523127299?s=46&t=NCyR3qw1z7F5G9_K91ti_w


When people get bored they talk about other people.

Be productive, not bored.

Talk about ideas, not people.


If money is, at its core, simply a ledger of value…

Then it makes sense that governments have generally been in charge of the creation and management of money throughout history.

The problem with this, as it turns out, is that centralized governments are quickly incentivized to create “sub-money,” that is, fiat or other debased currency, in order to steal the purchasing power of its citizens over time in a stealthy manner.

This stealthy theft has a name: Inflation.

What if a money could be conceived that has and maintains a truly decentralized ledger?

If this were possible, would a centralized government or other authority be necessary to maintain the monetary ledger and give it validity?

Many fiat brains have a difficult time comprehending this idea… especially if it’s the first time they have thought about it.

Among other attributes, #Bitcoin is the world’s first and only truly decentralized monetary network.

It is decentralized money of the people, by the people, and for the people.


Why do some people hate #Bitcoin so vehemently?

- Central planners hate what is decentralized.

- Militant people hate what is secure.

- Infinite borrowers and money printers hate scarcity.

- Statists hate what is stateless.

- Authoritarians hate what is permissionless.

- Fiat cucks hate sound money.

#Bitcoin is:
- decentralized
- secure
- scarce
- stateless
- permissionless
- sound money

It is truly better money for a better world (except for those described above).


#Bitcoin is the world’s first decentralized, secure, scarce, permissionless, energy money.

Nikola Tesla and Henry Ford imagined it 100+ years ago.

And guess what?

Energy money, by design, uses energy.

Lots of it.

It’s called proof of work. It’s fundamentally different than proof of stake fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies.

And its energy usage is a protective feature… not a bug.

#Bitcoin consumes lots of energy and is better money for a better world.


Electricity is going to fail.

Also, the internet and personal computers.

Also, Bitcoin.

The Luddites, as usual, are right.


Legend. 🤝


Speaking of paradigm shifts...

It is clear (to me) that government fiat/credit-based currencies incentivize two classes of citizens: Owners and Renters.

Over time, as monetary inflation/debasement continues and increases, the Owner class gets increasingly wealthy, while the Renter class continues to lose purchasing power.

#Bitcoin, as a bearer asset, is available to essentially all who want to participate in the decentralized, secure, scarce, and permissionless monetary network.

This bearer asset is the purest form of ownership (it's no one else's liability) and will--organically, from the bottom-up--help transform the long-suffering Renter class into Owners.

In so doing, the majority of humanity will slowly but surely experience new-found prosperity as the purchasing power of humans increases over time, much to the chagrin of governments and their proof of stake fiat currencies.

Truly, #Bitcoin is better money for a better world.


I highly recommend getting into the habit of measuring your net worth on a monthly or quarterly basis... in both dollar (or your government fiat currency) AND #bitcoin terms.

It is quite enlightening, and will absolutely highlight the major differences between the two stores of value.

For example, over the past five years, the price of my house has increased (gotten more expensive) by 37%.

In bitcoin terms, the price of my house has decreased by a whopping 89% over the past five years. Meaning that it is 89% more affordable.

LESSON: Life gets more expensive the longer you save in dollars, while life gets more affordable the longer you save in bitcoin.

Truly, #Bitcoin is better money for a better world.


Life gets cheaper and quality improves on a #Bitcoin standard.

Imagine that!

GM


Most businesses on a bitcoin standard will eventually transition into bitcoin holding companies.


If you believe the growth of your business can outperform the long-term CAGR of #bitcoin… then, frankly, I don’t believe you.

Consider holding bitcoin as a reserve asset or risk getting left behind and becoming obsolete.


Anyway, good afternoon.

https://m.primal.net/HXBN.png


75-80 on a good day.


We’ll see.


The fiancialization of #Bitcoin by Wall Street has always been inevitable.

I'm not even very bright, but I've been talking about this happening for many years.

So this week will simply mark another milestone in the growth and development of the #Bitcoin monetary and financial network.

What's more interesting (to me) is what will happen over the ensuing years and decades.

As a completely separate monetary and financial network from the US dollar-led fiat/credit based network, I think that #Bitcoin will eventually grow too unwieldy and powerful to be contained by Wall Street, as well as by most corporations and fiat-based governments.

Eventually, possibly as soon as the 2030s, #Bitcoin will actually overpower fiat/credit-based entities, break free from their attempts at control and coercion, sever all remaining ties, and separate government from the production and control of money.

Truly, it will be a brave new world.

And, dare I say, it will be a much better world for the vast majority of humanity.

It's not a speculation, an investment, or a portfolio hedge...

#Bitcoin is better money for a better world.


Soon https://image.nostr.build/7c97d6359c01f900916319669263ed6cc755acb8fa5af1222fa2cb34c4d77200.jpg


Fiat brains: "How low can prices go on a #Bitcoin standard?"

Me: "Lower."

FBs: "Haha... I mean, at some point they have to stop going lower, right?"

Me: "They are going down forever, Laura."

FBs: "My name is not 'Laura.'"

Me: "I know."


#Bitcoin vs #BitcoinETF:

#Bitcoin:
- Decentralized ✅
- Secure ✅
- Permissionless ✅
- Money ✅

#BitcoinETF:
- Decentralized ❌
- Secure ❌
- Permissionless ❌
- Money ❌

Choose wisely.


The US dollar is prices go up (forever) technology.

#Bitcoin is prices go down (forever) technology.

PgD >> PgU


Dear fiat brains,

If you’re not saving in #Bitcoin you’re not actually saving.

🤯


How do you feel?


By design, if you are saving in #bitcoin then you are accruing purchasing power.


If you don’t understand the history of money, it’s doubtful that you will understand the purpose or value of #Bitcoin.


Is anything "hiding in plain sight" more than the current growth of the #Bitcoin monetary and financial network?

In my lifetime, the only two comparable situations were with personal computers and the internet... both of which were derided and dismissed until they became nearly ubiquitous and accepted by all.


Yes.


2024 New Year’s Resolutions:

1. Head down.
2. Work hard.
3. Stack sats.

Who’s with me?


My goal?

Humbly stack sats until I can support myself and my family off of 5% of my #bitcoin stack... at bear market lows (IMPORTANT), not bull market highs.

It's similar to the 4% rule of IRAs, but I expect bitcoin to outperform equities, bonds, and real estate far into the future.

Market peaks are fun to talk about, but the basal growth rate is much more important to consider.

OPINION: For the next 10 years, I think bitcoin will maintain a CAGR of 35%-45%.


Why was the US dollar initially backed by gold?

Because gold provides fiat currency with an honest unit of accounting and a stable store of value.

What do you think has happened since President Nixon removed the US dollar from a gold standard in 1971?

- Unaccountable (literally), ever-expanding growth of the US dollar and dollar-denominated credit... both in the US and around the world (eurodollar)

- Highly inefficient store of value... with ever-decreasing purchasing power (robbing savers) over time

 Fiat brains focus almost solely on medium of exchange as the primary attribute of money.

Prior to 1971--and throughout most of history--it would have been laughable to do so.

Ideal, sound money should provide an honest unit of account and be a stable or increasing store of value over both time and space.

And, it should be an excellent medium of exchange. But this is less relevant than the above-mentioned features... which are critical to the ongoing and increasing prosperity of the human race.

Fiat currency is clown world money.

All fiat currency units trend to zero value over time.

Governments love fiat, because it robs their own citizens of their purchasing power over time in a process call "inflation."

Inflation allows issuing governments to grow ever larger while their citizens grow ever poorer and, often, more reliant upon their governments... which are, ironically, actively robbing them.

Fortunately, there exists a better money for a better world.

Established in 2009.

#Bitcoin


Two Steps to Success:
1. Choose #Bitcoin.
2. Win.

Bonus: This applies to anyone and everyone.


Pricing your assets and net worth in #bitcoin is an eye-opening experience.

You may be gaining in US dollar (or other fiat currency) terms, while losing in #bitcoin terms.

I highly recommend this practice.


Pro tip: In a world of infinite monetary creation, credit expansion, and debasement… flee to verifiable scarcity.


An inconvenient truth for fiat brains:

It is nearly impossible to outperform #bitcoin over time in terms of real purchasing power.


Don’t pout. Opt out.

#Bitcoin


With voting, Warren is very much in power.


There is another way to vote, other than the traditional ballot.

A sly roundabout way, with your purchasing power.


Unpopular opinion for 2024:

Voting (for any party) empowers the current corrupt political system and, ironically, disempowers those who cast the ballot.

There is a better way.

Defund corruption and special interests and hidden currency debasement with #Bitcoin.


Love the work that the HRF is doing. Godspeed.


Take it from a former degen crypto trader:
- Don't schmidtcoin
- Learn why "blockchain not #Bitcoin” is a really stupid thing to say
- Proof of Stake #cypto is just an extension of the current fiat system
- All roads lead (back) to #Bitcoin


Seems like a good day to remind people of three different types of currency/money:

1.  Fiat currency: A depreciating store of value.

2. Gold: A stable store of value.

3. #Bitcoin: An appreciating store of value.


VCs are often the used car salesmen of finance.


The state is constantly trying to defund you via taxes, inflation, and regulation.

Defund it back with #Bitcoin.


We are long past this point. nostr:note18semgelf533xc7x0lvg6h37v8z02jzfc5zjyrvkx7hqua30vptsq4am54c


Defund ongoing and increasing nonsense from the ruling "elite."

#Bitcoin


Current macro highlights:
- Inflation down 🐂
- Interest rates way down 🐂
- US dollar down 🐂
- Dovish Fed pivot 🐂
- Initial jobless claims still low 🐂
- Retail sales recovering 🐂
- Mortgage rates lower 🐂
- Housing market recovering 🐂
- US manufacturing bottoming (?) ❓
- US services still expansionary 🐂
- Global M2 spiking 🐂

Bullish across the board for risk assets and #bitcoin.

OPINION: Until something changes, pity the bears. 🐻


When small forest fires are always immediately extinguished, underbrush overgrows & it becomes hard to even walk in the forest.

“Today, we don’t get the creative destruction necessary for a healthy economy.”
—Dr. Jeff Ross nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

We need to restore signals of market reality. #Bitcoin https://image.nostr.build/931adf34db55a6a5186ef02b4f746c074b918952738376a4755da92d835f16f4.jpg


My fomo is real.


Government fiat currency is the primary cause of poverty.

#Bitcoin is the only viable, long lasting solution.


*sees a big red candle

*smashes the buy button

#Bitcoin


Facts:

#Bitcoin price bulls may be wrong in the short term, but will always be proven right over the long term.

#Bitcoin price bears may be right in the short term, but will always be proven wrong over the long term.


Sobering thought: The world's goods and services will get less expensive in #bitcoin terms long after all of us are dead.

Said another way... You're never too late to #Bitcoin.

Said another way... There will always be enough #Bitcoin scarcity for anyone who wants it.


Legend. 🔥


Thanks for watching 🙏


Accurate. 😂


The internet is digitizing the world.

The internet of money is repricing the world.

#Bitcoin


People often ask me, "How much bitcoin should I hold in my portfolio?"

What I tell them, in short, is that the more you know #Bitcoin, the more bitcoin you will own.


They’ll come around.


Normies have yet to understand that #Bitcoin is repricing the world.

The price of bitcoin in US dollars (or any fiat currency) is simply a short term side show and, frankly, a distraction.


The next time a normie or degen crypto trader asks you when you will take profits on your #bitcoin holdings, ask them when they will take profits on their bank savings account trade.

It's an illogical question once you understand money.


The anonymous, humble, sat stacking pleb. 🧡


I think the large cyclical drawdowns will persist, but will likely get a little smaller with each passing cycle.


#Bitcoin will increase your purchasing power over time and space… and you will like it.


This is one great example of why Bitcoin is changing the world for the better… although it will be a difficult transition for many of the Fiat Brains.


I’m of the strong opinion that not owning #bitcoin is the greatest opportunity cost in the history of money and finance.


The order of understanding #Bitcoin:
1. Skepticism
2. Speculation/Gambling
3. Investment/Portfolio hedge
4. Savings/Superior money


Unpopular opinion: Democracy works well on a local level, but increasingly fails on a nation state level.

When it is impersonal, it becomes nothing more than mob rule.

And the majority will always vote for a better life at the expense of the minority.


Speculators gonna speculate.

Bitcoiners gonna stack sats.

We are not the same.

#Bitcoin


#Bitcoin is slowly and surely changing the world for the better.

Luddites, however, are everywhere… and will be with us for quite some time.

We are very early.

Onwards.


Great show from @bitcoinmatrix  with Dr. Crab himself, nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l, couldn’t agree more about the #microstrategy play, zero fees, cash generation, managed by the gigachad himself nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m….. if one has to own shares, might as well buy the best. https://fountain.fm/clip/IfNcZEwa2NAd6Xd8Qz9T


What would it look like, if an emergent money was being monetized?

Often when I talk with academics or other high-IQ critics of bitcoin, it’s the volatility and seemingly speculative aspect of it that turns them off. It’s almost distasteful to them. They can get behind the idea of global open-source payments and so forth, “but that’s not why people buy it” they’ll say. “They buy it because they’re speculating. It’s too volatile for its own good.” Some aspect of them dislikes it in principle, almost *because* one can make money from it.

But a new decentralized money, including its own unit of account and liquidity, doesn’t just emerge as a multi-trillion dollar-equivalent network out of the box. In order to go from zero to trillions in market capitalization and liquidity, it needs upside volatility. And with upside volatility comes speculation, leverage, and downside volatility. Cycle after cycle, it’s priced like an option. At first it’s like a 0.1% chance that it succeeds in the long run. And then in the next cycle it’s like 1%. And then in the next cycle it’s like 5%, and so forth. So, early capital allocators that have seen a thing or two and know the high failure rate of new ideas will say, “This’ll probably fail, but if it doesn’t, both the investment gains and the macro implications will be enormous.” And then 15 years into it with a few more cycles under its belt, the probability of success looks less like a distant moonshot and more like a real possibility, and then eventually starts to look like the base case. In the beginning the question is, “how will this succeed?” and at later stages the question becomes, “what risks could prevent this from continuing to succeed?”

The process of buying bitcoin is often a speculative process at first, but then as people learn more, they often view it differently. Those that really want speculation will then continue down the pipeline of altcoins- there’s always some shiny new object to try to speculate on. On the other hand, those who begin viewing bitcoin as money, start to view it as a defensive or risk-off act to hold a piece of this liquid and globally decentralized network of value. One would feel too financially exposed not to.


Happy Cyber Monday.
Stack sats, not stuff.

#Bitcoin


I love this timeline. https://image.nostr.build/1da78f04558beff6341f115caa267bfc4125a04db93e2616ec377d3c004822a9.jpg


Bitcoin and Macro Mastermind Q4 2023 w/ nostr:npub1s9z7pwy96thwt7zvmrlpfnddstezxxphx9rx3m0660sgkwld9eescjnszc , nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l , and nostr:npub1nvxnc8egjlhpqtzrxmav3yk8frf3p7y9wujgwrcgwep2xr77xrvsa0paqn

nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z
🤙

https://fountain.fm/episode/ru7ng3ikMYk2DG4mZXeI


Then new issuance will likely shift to longer-dated Treasuries, which the private sector (and foreign governments) must absorb. If they don’t or can’t absorb the new issuance, the Fed will step up and the next round of quantitative easing (debt monetization) will begin.


I’ve tweeted it before and I’ll X it again:

Stacking sats is the ultimate side gig.

Entrepreneurs take note.

#Bitcoin


GM.

Stack hard while the gettin’s good.

(Sats are still cheap.)

#Bitcoin


*will overwhelm…


Check out my subsequent Nostr post.


Why are bonds rallying?

Following today's QRA, the focus is now back on shorter-dated T-bills, instead of longer-dated bonds.

This surprised the market to the upside (a good surprise), as investors are now less worried that the supply of longer-dated bonds won't overwhelm demand.

The Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ORR) market comes back into play... as an absorber to the relatively large T-bill issuance.

This is generally net positive for US net liquidity...

Which is generally net positive for risk assets.

Santa rally in play.


Don’t just flee to a better world… help create it.

#Bitcoin


That’s so weird. Not how it looks from my end. And the app is still just technically-challenging enough that I can’t figure out how to fix my profile… including re-linking my Lightning account for zaps. 😂


I don’t know why. I set it up for my Strike address long ago…


It looks fine from my end. Not sure why it’s not showing up on your end.


You sip on $7 pumpkin spice lattes with whip…

I sip on homemade bone broth…

We are not the same. https://image.nostr.build/41bda3e13b1f6ec88b68195ac23c68a798a89909afb42beff4589edfe34b9606.jpg


UPDATE: From Oct 18 - Oct 25

US net liquidity roughly DECREASED by -$49.6B.

Fed balance sheet: -$25.3B

ORR: -$50.2B

TGA: +$74.5B

OPINION: For the first time in several weeks, the latest weekly results are net negative for risk assets, all things being equal.

Compared to recent weeks, more liquidity has been added to the TGA while less has been withdrawn from the ORR, likely secondary to lesser issuance of short-dated T-bills by the US Treasury.

Net liquidity is still rangebound since April 2022, and is currently sitting near the center of this range.

Still a crab market until something changes... 🔥🦀🔥


I believe that true net worth is only priced in #Bitcoin. It’s the only reliable measure.


I just want to preserve and grow my purchasing power over time… which is the opposite of what government fiat currency does… and is what Bitcoin is designed to do.


For the first time in history, it is actually fun to simply save.

#Bitcoin


In a world of unlimited fiat production and uncertainty, flee to absolute scarcity and certainty.

Flee to #Bitcoin.


To be clear, if it were a truly “free market” then the US absolutely should be in a recession.

But the MASSIVE amount of fiscal (government) spending is *artificially* boosting GDP and preventing an official recession to occur.

Can they keep up the charade throughout 2024 and allow the underlying economy to recover?

Or will their actions only serve to worsen the inevitable outcome?

I give it 50/50 odds.

Let’s see what happens. 🍿


On a fiat currency standard, central planners argue that more fiat must be created in order to fund two or three simultaneous wars.

On a #Bitcoin standard, decentralized users understand that sustained major wars are generally unaffordable, massively wasteful and, therefore, unlikely to occur.

One currency standard generally wastes human life, while the other monetary standard generally preserves it.

Which world do you prefer?

The choice is yours.

#Bitcoin is better money for a better world.


Alternatively, high yield corporate debt is just repricing higher to match the underlying move in Treasury yields.


UPDATE: From Oct 11 - Oct 18

US net liquidity roughly INCREASED by +$19.0B.  👀

Fed balance sheet: -$18.9B

ORR: -$88.6B

TGA: +$50.7B

OPINION: This is mildly net positive for risk assets, all things being equal.   Net liquidity still rangebound since late-April 2022, but it has been trending materially higher since its late-September 2023 lows.

DYOR

🔥🦀🔥


You get what you pay for. 😂


No. I should have added #16. Subsequent new highs for bitcoin after resumption of QE.


My #bitcoin price playbook for the coming two years, based on past performance (which does not guarantee future returns):

- October 2023-March 2024: ↔⬆ (may approach $40-45k)

- April 2024-September 2024: ⬆

- October 2024-March 2025: ⬆⬆ (probable new ATH by 4Q 2024, then rally above $100k)

- April 2025-September 2025: ⬆⬆⬆ (highs in the $100k to $1M range)

(DYOR. Not individual investment advice.)


For those not on Twitter:

Event horizon... my sequence of events (just a guess):
1. Remove US debt ceiling ✅
2. Massive debt issuance ✅
3. Absorb much of debt issuance via T-bill issuance and absorption from the overnight reverse repo (ORR) market ✅
4. ORR is depleted sometime in 1H 2024
5. Treasury market shows increased instability (via high and rising MOVE index)
6. Treasury slows issuance
7. Fed implements mandatory increased bank reserve requirements to help absorb Treasury issuance
8. US Treasury debt issuance speeds up
9. Severe bond market instability as private sector liquidity has been fully tapped dry
10. Financial institutions start to fail in earnest; contagion risks heightened
11. Risk assets crumble with extreme volatility
12. New Fed liquidity patches initiated/revived, but with little effect
13. Bear market recession; proverbial "blood in the streets"
14. Fed declares massive #QE
15. Bottom in risk assets; #bitcoin soars to new highs by late 2024-early 2025


Take a break from the nonsense.

Play some #tennis. https://image.nostr.build/bdd9edb6a4d0653a227be16b86e67d680e8470a233e71883ee371d03b09e2f39.jpg


Dishonest people and corrupt governments naturally hate #Bitcoin because it forces an honest unit of account on whomever or whatever uses it.

Bitcoin forces everyone to stop playing pretend.


It’s as simple as this:

#Bitcoin is superior money simply because it has superior monetary properties.


Nonsensical questions that fiat brains ask:

- What backs gold?

- What backs the sun?

- What backs Bitcoin?


A gentle reminder that proof of stake #crypto and #stocks have nothing relevant to do with proof of work #Bitcoin.

If you're spending any time comparing the former with the latter, then it is time wasted.


Fiat currency is literally designed to rob its users of their purchasing power over time, to the benefit of its issuer; that is, the government.

Being robbed of purchasing power over time creates an ever present, ever increasing desperation amongst the working class.

As desperation and frustration increase, so too does acts of violence and the imminent desire for change.

Geopolitical tensions increase, setting the stage for the next fourth turning.

As these tensions culminate in the coming years, never forget the root cause of the inevitable societal collapse and necessary reorganization: fiat currency.

I implore you to study and understand why #Bitcoin is better money for a better world.

Fiat is currency of the government, by the government, and for the government.

Bitcoin is money of the people, by the people, and for the people.


I’m not into Treasuries. More interested in corporate debt, senior credit, munis, etc.


Fixed income is offering a reasonable alternative to equities for the first time in a very long time.

This is good... and serves to wring-out market excesses and degenerate leveraged longs.

Creative destruction will continue until morale improves... and it will, actually, improve.


UPDATE: From Oct 4 - Oct 11

US net liquidity roughly INCREASED by +$57.7B.

Fed balance sheet: -$3.7B

ORR: -$102.6B

TGA: +$41.2B

OPINION: This is generally net positive for risk assets, all things being equal.

Net liquidity still rangebound since late-April 2022, but it has been trending materially higher since late-September 2023 lows.

DYOR

🔥🦀🔥


It's 2023.

If you still think "Bitcoin is a scam" then, frankly, you're just plain stupid.


Winning.

Great friends and family. Fire pit. Lots of laughs and love. 🧡 https://image.nostr.build/d260864b237f8d26bf5fb1a2289c05b765e3c0a313277b5c285d85a4dd1cf8fa.jpg


UPDATE: From Sep 27th - Oct 4

US net liquidity roughly INCREASED by -$13.8B.

Fed balance sheet: -$46.2B

ORR: -$100.8B

TGA: +$40.8B

Mildly net positive for risk assets, all things being equal.

DYOR

🔥🦀🔥


The fiat currency system exists to methodically extract purchasing power from its participants.

Today is as good of a day as any to start being your own bank.

Preserve and grow your purchasing power over time with #Bitcoin.


I am greatly constrained in what I can say/write by my profession.


Frankly, I’m just sorry that we couldn’t get the government shutdown done.

Maybe next time. 🤝


Over the past (almost) two years, this is the time where I usually tweet:

Beware the Bart.

However, it’s Uptober. And #bitcoin price has a hard time staying down in October—and the 4th quarter of any year.

Macro data still looks bleak, but I’m optimistic the $btc will find a way to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”

Not investment advice, obviously. And I’m usually wrong, so don’t @ me.

Head down. Work harder and smarter. Keep stacking sats.

The next 24 months should be *interesting* at the very least.

🔥🔥


It is on my end…


Truth.


This morning’s sick view during our workout. 😍 https://image.nostr.build/e3e74a6cc58a4bc46485894ab38272dcb8feeb4ddd471453137443aa2d5cc5dc.jpg


I don’t actually remember. Possibly from Bitcoin Magazine’s merch shop?


For the few care about my macro nonsense…

UPDATE: From Sep 20th - Sep 27th

US net liquidity roughly DECREASED by -$19B.

Fed balance sheet: -$22B

ORR: -$44B

TGA: +$41B

Mildly net negative for risk assets, all things being equal.

DYOR

🔥🦀🔥


Watch Chinese liquidity via PBoC actions.

Or, alternatively, watch the price of #bitcoin.

👀


The Bitcoin Halving Cycle.
https://image.nostr.build/ff19cd50307cb8357b846ac4e091d8d99fdf19781d6dc2cdadf84619a06879a7.jpg


I don’t actually remember. Sorry!


On a grocery run… representing #Bitcoin. 🔥🔥 https://image.nostr.build/e54aad20428cee580c2044968b95485ed605458adbb50b004d40e7d3660b53d2.jpg


UPDATE: From Sep 13th - Sep 20th

US net liquidity roughly DECREASED by -$134.3B.

Fed balance sheet: -$74.7B

ORR: -$59.2B

TGA: +$118.8

Definitely no stealth #QE over the past week. Rather liquidity contraction. Net negative for risk assets, all things being equal.

DYOR


Unpopular opinion: The US debt spiral doesn’t matter nearly as much today as many people think it does.

Even at these higher interest rates.

Someday, it will matter very much. But we are YEARS away from that moment.

For now, it is business—nay, borrowing—as usual.

🇺🇸


Look what just arrived! 👀

Can’t wait to dig into “Broken Money” by nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a after nostr:npub1593cfkv5cyx8srdp8exuz524uvkdk0p4y2tek6mwa22j6v4plv0smyn7nm  finishes reading it. 🔥

I have the sneaking suspicion that it will become an instant classic. https://image.nostr.build/36703e9a7b0d6efcf9f65bca14a88a742398bb78ee609549295db741bd4a6e5e.jpg


Layer 1 is the rock solid, decentralized and secure distributed ledger and store of value.

Layer 2 is the medium of exchange infrastructure. This, obviously, still has a long way to go, but it will eventually provide a viable and (I believe) much better alternative to the current Eurodollar standard.

#Bitcoin

Why?

Government fiat is currency of the government, by the government, and for the government.

Bitcoin is sound money of the people, by the people, and for the people.


Definitely possible.

But I think they are unlikely to outperform over the long run.


#Bitcoin is clearly better money for a better world. This is obvious for anyone who spends time studying what money is and what makes some forms of money better than others.

Question:
Are there actual good, sustainable, profitable business models built on and around Bitcoin?

- Exchanges are one model, which have shown minimal success and sustainability to date.

- Lending models don't work nearly as well as they do on a fiat currency base--given the differences between depreciating (fiat) and appreciating (bitcoin) assets.

Other than holding bitcoin as a reserve asset on a corporate balance sheet--which I believe to be extremely wise--what business model exists (or could exist) that may actually outperform the long-term price performance of bitcoin itself?


Accurate. 🤝


Government grows ever larger and more powerful by “legally” stealing your purchasing power via taxes and inflation.

People can slowly defund  and diminish this nefarious scheme by exchanging their fiat currencies for #Bitcoin, which is designed to preserve and grow purchasing power over time in a decentralized and secure manner.


Brilliant! Congrats CK! 🎉🎉


Don’t hate the Bitcoin Crab market.

Take advantage of it. https://image.nostr.build/c450126b34bb0401a803a49a5d7762539374ac164a326384588b5579e87433ee.jpg


It’s counterintuitive to many, but tech stocks typically perform well during periods of stagflation.

They generally perform poorly during periods of combined slowing economic growth and disinflation or deflation.

If/when we get a deflationary bust… watch out. 👀

$QQQ


Same difference. 🤝


BREAKING:
CPI data... crabby for longer. 🦀

Fed: Crabby hawkish for longer. 🦀

Interest rates: Crabby for longer. 🦀

Net liquidity: Crabby for longer. 🦀

Asset prices: Crabby for longer. 🦀

Crab on.

🔥🦀🔥


On investing:

“Understanding the distinction between risk control and risk avoidance is truly essential for investors."

- Howard Marks


Imo, people are too concerned about mining centralization. The physical ownership and operation of mining rigs is pretty decentralized (even the big miners are a small % of the network).

I would like to see a bit more mining outside of North America, and I’m also supportive of efforts like Stratum V2 to provide further decentralization assurances for transactions. So there are opportunities for improvement but the incentives generally make sense.

On the other hand, what I don’t see talked about enough is supply chain centralization. The production of the chips themselves has a lot more centralization to it. This is true for most advanced semiconductors in general (and thus is a geopolitical issue) but is of particular concern for a decentralized protocol.


US net liquidity has been rangebound, chopping sideways since late-April 2022.

There is no reason to have high expectations for US based risk assets until something materially changes.

In short, stay crabby.

🔥🦀🔥


Just realized that my last update mixed up the ORR and TGA values. Here’s the corrected version for anyone who cares:

UPDATE: From Aug 30th - Sep 6th

US net liquidity roughly INCREASED by +$71B.

Fed balance sheet: -$20B

ORR: -$91B

TGA: $0 (no significant change)

Stealth QE since mid-August. Primarily from ORR drainage. 👀

DYOR


Dream of doing great things--banding together against seemingly insurmountable odds--to rebuild a better world for the benefit of all people.


UPDATE: From Aug 30th - Sep 6th

US net liquidity roughly INCREASED by +$71B.

Fed balance sheet: -$20B

ORR: $0 (no significant change)

TGA: -$91B

Stealth QE since mid-August. 👀

DYOR


This a joke?

Since the start of 2H:
DXY: +2%
US 10Y yield: +11%
Oil: +24%


Generally speaking, in 2H 2023...

Dollar up.
Yields up.
Oil up.

What could possibly go wrong?


Love the mute. 🥰


Jesus was a baller

https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_807668a72c23143ed54920849cbc35ffe316ac0b65c829bc3a04957e5bd7eab0.jpg


I’m not very good at this stuff, but I think my profile is connected to my @CashApp account, no? Isn’t there a little lightning icon there?