Moving on.


Not necessarily.


That’s not how I invest.


What I'm watching... 👀

A strong negative divergence is forming on the $DXY daily chart.

After it's recent (impressive) surge, a US dollar breakdown is IMMINENT... and likely to be triggered by the (dovish) words of Jerome Powell and the (dovish) actions of the FOMC later today.

Why it matters:

A breakdown of the US dollar is NET POSITIVE for risk assets, emerging markets and--you guessed it--#bitcoin.

I wouldn't be surprised if #bitcoin pushes towards $100k by the end of 2024, given the current macroeconomic setup.

Not a bold prediction, just a guess. Let's watch. 🍿

https://m.primal.net/Lvfr.png


Much.


Boing indeed. ⚡

nostr:note1wuuc2mzxfhsaxd8dt7q78r2j2ev8zpuuxs5ajfegf44phpycxp5snrgtmj


What I'm watching... 👀

Boing?

A healthy retest around $68k then onwards and (generally) upwards for the rest of 4Q 2024?

This would be my highest probability guess.

I would not want to be short the king of assets at this point in time.

#bitcoin

https://m.primal.net/LqYK.png


I was honored to receive the following email announcement from BarclayHedge:

"Dear Jeff Ross,

Congratulations!

We are pleased to announce that Vailshire Capital Management LLC has been featured in BarclayHedge's Monthly performance rankings. Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked number 1 in the Multi-Strategy category for September 2024."

Amazingly, this is the fourth time so far in 2024 that Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund has achieved this award:

- March 2024: #1
- May 2024: #1
- July 2024: #1
- September 2024: #1

Shout-out to #Bitcoin for being the primary driver of this performance. ⚡

Just an encouraging message to share with your #tradfi and #macro friends... Not a solicitation to invest.

https://m.primal.net/LpLK.png


Thanks!


Thanks! 🙏


It's live! https://youtu.be/iMyDdRbXhME


Agreed.
Wasn’t my decision to delay >1 month.


This was a wide-ranging and really fun conversation with nostr:npub1gfxgylgst4lcemkjth6xdvcvq7le8rtlrym7wayml63qrjggngaqkqescl!

Enjoy!! 🔥

**Originally recorded on September 24, 2024.

nostr:note158mxsu2rglusujptc0kwga8pplfpsjuf7d4at4rsg4c2dnrczyzsahcaz8


Thanks. 🍻


Just for a bit. But thanks. 🍻


'#Bitcoin for Millennials' 095 with  nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l drops tomorrow!⚡

A SUPER DENSE conversation covering macro, finance, ETF influence, price cycles, why Bitcoin is not risky, and prepping for a major rally🚀

Get notified🔔
📺 http://youtube.com/@bramk
🎧 http://bitcoinformillennials.com

https://m.primal.net/LnFl.mp4


Fiat monetary debasement is gaining traction, as reflected in the fiat price of the world’s only neutral energy money: #Bitcoin.

I expect this trend to continue—and actually accelerate—in the coming 12-14 months.


My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site:

"Buying eggs with bitcoins."

OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS...

From September 2019 through September 2024, the price of a dozen eggs:

- In US dollars: Up +177%, from $1.38 to $3.82.

https://m.primal.net/LSkU.png

- In #bitcoin: Down -55%, from 14,119 sats to 6,310 sats.

https://m.primal.net/LSkZ.png

CONCLUSION: Life gets constantly more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.

Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money...

The choice is yours.

Source:
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/


It’s always sad when stink bids don’t get filled. 😢


Remember early September? When the #bitcoin price was just chillin at $53k?

Buckle up for the coming 12-13 months.

nostr:note1xwpwmmup8supe66556jpmrtwexrrtdfung0r8804j5k4rf8th0esyev08w


Auto-DCA. If you have to think about it you're doing it wrong.


Yes. ⚡


#CrypticPosts

200 to 1000


What he said.


UPDATE: Bullish. 🐂


Three things that are real:
1. Conference burnout
2. Podcast burnout
3. Social media burnout


Recession + inflation… a return of the 1970s.


I think it will be about the same as past cycles.

Human behavior is cyclical and often predictable.


I know that I’m not supposed to care, but I pity the fool who is selling his #bitcoin today based on short term FUD.


#58kforever 🧡

nostr:note1n8agz3gaqg8cjrushazxuc0qm856wh9r8j8fxtgpx6ptfm9tclqqs57pnh


everyone asking who is satoshi? no one asking how is satoshi?


Patience.
Things don’t happen on a daily basis. These are multi-quarter trends.


58k gang is back motherfrumpers  https://image.nostr.build/83c9de5a0afc276d2bfbdde9c0ca88905c14e9dfb635fb8383df5981baac0128.jpg


lol… I welcome lower prices, actually, given my bullish outlook.


Before the month ends, I would guess.


There is great satisfaction and joy in becoming less.


Thanks. 🍻


Nothing has changed for me from a macro standpoint.

I expect economic growth, inflation, and global M2 to all mildly accelerate from here, which is generally good for risk assets and should be fantastic for bitcoin.


I thought it might surprise to the downside, but it didn’t.

Regardless, nothing has changed for me from a macro standpoint.

I expect economic growth, inflation, and global M2 to all mildly accelerate from here, which is generally good for risk assets and should be fantastic for bitcoin.


No change to this guess, which will be wrong.


STATUS UPDATE: Bullish. 🐂


We will only see mild inflation acceleration from here. Very unlikely to repeat the 1970s.


Agreed.
It’s why they have pivoted attention to the unemployment rate.


I still remain exceedingly bullish about bitcoin price action over the coming 12-13 months.


The September CPI of 2.4% is likely to be this cycle’s low.

It will almost certainly creep higher over the coming months.


It feels good to be wrong (again). 😂


lol... my CPI guess was... wrong!

Core Inflation Rate MoM: 0.3% vs 0.2% (forecast) and 0.3% (prior)

Core Inflation Rate YoY: 3.3% vs 3.2% (forecast) and 3.3% (prior)

Inflation Rate MoM: 0.2% vs 0.1% (forecast) and 0.2% (prior)

Inflation Rate YoY: 2.4% vs 2.3% (forecast) and 2.5% (prior)

#macro

That's what I get for making (another) public prediction. 😂

Ironically, my expectations for the USD, interest rates, risk assets, and #bitcoin may actually work out over the coming days/weeks because of another important data point...

Initial Jobless Claims: 258k vs 230k (forecast) and 225k (prior)

This gives the Fed the ongoing excuse to lower the Fed Funds rate as they turn their attention from inflation to employment.

Regardless, that was fun.

Onwards. ⚡

nostr:note1thhtvw0k3w7gyvu3g3xg7qu04mv8d0fec83cf42uaq8xunw0v4ksdd664v


T minus 60 minutes for the US CPI report (September data) 🍿

nostr:note1k6zyu98tl4fp7twthfrkpjjjkex3zx2kugjrk7pg6mzr0ygu6f3qh2pnyg


The irony.


Who Satoshi is doesn't matter. They gave the world a gift. So thank you and that is all we have to say.


Will it be in Colorado Springs?


UPDATE: The dollar has been up bigly seven out the past eight trading days.

NO ONE COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING... 👀

#macro

nostr:note1pfnrev46vqq2kz2xsr2gqp83teytz4ua7634xdqf0tc99jv5a2yqzwhx89


#CrypticPosts

Oct 2024

<83 B
<63 SB
<43 BWL


#CrypticPosts

2024: From 3 to 2.
2025: From 2 to 1?


My stupid worthless non-investable short-term predictions which are not any sort of individual advice:

- The Oct. 10 US CPI will "surprise" many to the downside... "lower than expected!!"

Soon thereafter:
- The US dollar (which has recently been surging) will rollover and head lower
- Interest rates (which have recently been surging) will rollover and head lower
- VIX (which has recently spiked) will turn lower
- Risk assets will resume their uptrend
- #bitcoin will make bold moves higher... since the next leg of the bull market has officially begun (slowly at first, then exponential in 2H 2025)
- Ironically, #inflation has likely already bottomed (as partially reflected in the coming low September CPI print) and should trend slowly higher over the coming couple of quarters


nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z starts this with the btc options topic which helped my limited understanding and nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l is bullish and why…which is always exciting!

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6MYe7EDXHlaNQ5UOgjlvkm?si=0zTLSi8_SQKuHyklgZ7l8g&t=4099


That is cool.
Few know how to drive stick these days


All proof of stake #crypto arguments boil down to this... Even from otherwise intelligent people:

"It's relevant because I own some and the price is going up. Also, the price is going up, proving that it is relevant."


Only 36.

Some I hope not to experience.

Onwards. ⚡

nostr:note1u9u8tzl92l060etkjy56gnjytlla56ykhuuce0q4u8p6ufmulmhsgvy50a


Exactly


The excitement is palpable


Lots of reasons.
But a primary one is that Canadian free markets have been almost completely co-opted by the central authorities.
Centrally-controlled markets are dysfunctional, by definition.


That’s unfortunate, but at least you can still get something for them. 😂


I’d say #1, since Bitcoin is antithetical to the existence of the IMF.


#Bitcoin is the bane of the IMF’s existence.

Prediction: The IMF will rail against the growing Bitcoin network until the IMF ceases to exist.


It's crazy (to me) that you can exchange only 64 US government debasement units (dollars) for 100,000 purchasing power units (sats).

#Bitcoin


Just checking in…

How is the #58kforever gang holding up?

nostr:note1f39a599tvh5ckgeav6lquzpf9c0z6uge0pksk3rzn75ugc6enpksn482k0


People who complain about waiting 30 minutes or so for a #Bitcoin base layer transaction to go through...

Have you ever waited for a new bank ACH or wire transfer to process?

https://m.primal.net/Kfkc.png


No. I generally despise debates, as they often devolve into angry displays of arrogance.

I enjoy having conversations with people who are genuinely interested and truly love to learn.


Joe and I have fairly similar views and outlooks. George is too much of a Doom and Gloomer for my taste… but certain people love it.


I think George means well and obviously attracts a certain personality type.

Thanks to nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe and nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a, he is slowly coming around to #Bitcoin.


ELON TOOK THE AMERICA HANDLE TO PROMOTE TRUMP.

HE CAN TWEET FROM BIDEN'S ACCOUNT OR THE WHITE HOUSE'S. AT WILL.

FUCK IT. HE COULD TWEET FROM MULTIPLE MAJOR HANDLES AT THE SAME TIME.

EVERYONE WOULD BELIEVE THEY ARE REAL. IMPOSSIBLE TO VERIFY THEY ARE NOT.

HE COULD MAKE A MOCKERY OF ANY PERSON. ANY COMPANY. ANY COUNTRY.

HE COULD CRASH GLOBAL MARKETS OR START A WAR IF HE WANTED.

NOSTR IS NEEDED. NOSTR FIXES THIS.

https://cdn.satellite.earth/c326632cdc89166399ff92a55c4e59f5834a2c8deb534201769ea4eec1abf9d8.png


GM.

Confidence is attractive. Arrogance is ugly.


🇬🇧 Brilliant conversation guys... and well worth an hour of anyone's time who wants to get into the weeds! 🔥🔥🔥
#Bitcoin
 nostr:npub1s9z7pwy96thwt7zvmrlpfnddstezxxphx9rx3m0660sgkwld9eescjnszc  nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z  nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs  nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l
https://youtu.be/3kgpeH9MOg0


It’s amazing how different the present and future world looks and feels when viewed with an accurate measurement tool.

#Bitcoin


Yes.


Everyone and their grandmother is talking about “liquidity” now.

My work here is finished…


Just finished my quarterly (4Q 2024) memo for clients of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund.

Note that I am limited by the regulators as to what I can share publicly (especially regarding unaudited results/returns), so I am sharing what I can in this edited copy for you.

It's a little confusing, as many numbers are XX'd for privacy.

Hopefully you will still find it useful.

Cheers!

https://conta.cc/4eRZbTS


Bitcoin follows global M2 more closely than US net liquidity.


A brief update on...

- US Net Liquidity (top blue line): Still chopping sideways since April 2022.

OPINION #1: US based assets (think micro/small/mid-cap stocks) are likely to continue to chop sideways until US net liquidity momentum moves decidedly  higher.

- Global M2 monetary supply (approximate, lower blue line): This has decisively broken higher over the past several months and is unlikely to contract meaningfully in the coming 12 months or so.

OPINION #2: This upside breakout of global M2 bodes well for the price action of global assets like #bitcoin, #gold, and US megacap technology stocks.

Just my opinions, of course.

https://m.primal.net/LLKv.png


The Fed vs The Fed Up

Copypasta from #Hedgeye and Bob Rich (artist).

https://m.primal.net/LLGd.png


In my experience, based on training, the best investors are…

nostr:note1wekktwx3rnyq2ef3lcn7lu7l965vw5j20xma9njhjjz9rvzd5wwsn6xzj2


Engineers, definitely.
Having an emotion-free, iterative, systematic investment process is a huge advantage over the vast majority of emotional market participants.


I don't know who needs to hear this today, but most Economists--especially the famous ones--have mid-to-terrible investment track records.

Choose carefully to whom you listen.


No. But they are still directionally helpful and--importantly--the majority of market participants believe the "official" data.


Yup.
Inflationary money is abominable and leads to two classes of Americans: the Owner class and the Renter class.

The Renter class has experienced a slowly and steadily worsening of their quality of life over the past 50 years or so.

Meanwhile, the Owner (stocks, real estate, bitcoin, etc.) class have enjoyed a stable or steadily improving quality of life over the same time period.

#Bitcoin will eventually fix this.


September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior)

September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k)

The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again.

#macro

Onwards.

🐂


I’m in a quandary, please help me decide something:

The US federal government is:
A. Mostly worthless.
B. Totally worthless.

🇺🇸


It’s a loooong drive to RINO.

That said, I’d love to see the space and y’all someday.


I would like it to be closer to Colorado Springs. 🍻


Someday, all will do this.


Fellow physicians and providers:

Over time, the only way for you and your practice to provide higher quality services at ever-cheaper prices for your patients is to put your practice on a #Bitcoin standard.

The longer you wait to do this, the further you and your practice/business will fall behind.


No.
But I am often wrong.


What do you get when the #58kforever gang meets Dr. Bull?


The best part about living on a #Bitcoin standard is the eventual realization that you’re not steadily growing poorer year after year.

Finally.

Your hard work actually matters and your efforts are multiplied over time.

This is the new way to grow.

#Bitcoin is Better Money for a Better World.


Break a leg, Lyn!


Received.
Ty.


BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin (DIB)
Block: 863,635
DTG/ICOD: 1200Z 01Oct24
Precedence: Routine (RR)
Controls: Public Release
QQQQ
__________________________
BLUF: IDF Sends Troops Into Lebanon / New PM in Japan / Freedom Party Wins in Austria / US Dockworkers Begin Strike on East Coast / Chemical Plant Fire Still Affecting GA Counties / US Sending Thousands More Troops to Mideast / VP Debate Tonight / Ohio May Accept BTC for Taxes / UBS Warns Against US Dollar / Apple, Starlink Step up in Disaster Zone / Square Receives Payment Patent

Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $63,779, 24.07 oz Gold, .15 Median US House
24hr Hi: $64,778 / Lo: $62,873
Vol: $32B (Up 20%)
Mkt Cap: $1.26T (Even)
HashRate: 627 EH/s
Avg Fee Rate: 2 sats/vBtye (Down 87%)
Nodes: 18,930

---Reports---
-International Events-
1. Israel launches ground war in southern Lebanon: The Israeli military informed United Nations peacekeeping forces on Monday of its intention to “undertake limited ground incursions into Lebanon,” “Any crossing into Lebanon is in violation of Lebanese sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a violation of resolution 1701. We urge all actors to step back from such escalatory acts, which will only lead to more violence and more bloodshed,” the UN said. Israel’s stated war goal is to “ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Thursday, and its military has also said it is striking Hezbollah targets, particularly across southern Lebanon and Beirut. (CNN)

2. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s newly elected prime minister, forms Cabinet with emphasis on defense: Ishiba entered the Prime Minister’s Office and formed his Cabinet, which includes several security and defense experts, as he has called for a stronger regional military alliance and a more equal Japan-U.S. security partnership. (AP)

3. Austrian far-right party pushes to form government after election win: Austria's Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickl hailed a "new era" after preliminary results showed Sunday that the FPÖ had become the first far-right party to win in the country's parliamentary election since World War II. (Axios)

-US Events-
1. Dockworkers Launch Strike at Ports From Maine to Texas: The ILA is seeking a 77% wage increase over six years as a condition to sit down to talks with maritime employers. The walkout shuts down some of the country’s main gateways for imports of food, vehicles, heavy machinery, construction materials, chemicals, furniture, clothes and toys. Executives say a walkout lasting a week or longer would push up shipping costs and might trigger product shortages. (WSJ)

2. BioLab fire: Rockdale County shelter-in-place warning issued after weather change: Rockdale County has resumed its shelter-in-place and evacuation orders after a chemical fire at the BioLab facility in Conyers, Georgia. The effects of the fire were felt beyond Rockdale County. Residents across Gwinnett, DeKalb, Fulton, and other nearby counties reported seeing a haze and experiencing symptoms related to chemical irritants. (Fox5ATL)

3. Pentagon sending thousands of more troops to the Middle East: The Pentagon announced Monday that the US is sending thousands of more troops to the Middle East as Israel initiates “ground raids” into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah terrorists.  The “few thousand” additional forces will up the total number of US troops stationed at bases in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries to some 43,000. (NYPost)

4. Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance are set to meet Tuesday night in the only vice presidential debate of the 2024 election – and in what might be the last time the two campaigns square off onstage. Officials say the weather overnight has led the plume of chemicals to bank down and move through the county.

-Regulatory and Legal-
1. Ohio Senator Introduces Bill to Allow Bitcoin, Crypto Payments for State Taxes: The proposed legislation requires all political subdivisions in Ohio to accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for payments, with the specific digital assets yet to be determined. The bill also seeks to permit state universities and pension funds to invest in the asset class. (Decrypt)

-Central Bank Digital Currencies/World Currencies-
1. UBS Warns of Further US Dollar Decline, Advises Investors to Reduce USD holdings: Financial giant UBS expects the U.S. dollar to continue to depreciate, advising investors to reevaluate their portfolios. The bank predicts a medium-term decline due to shrinking interest rate advantages and a growing fiscal deficit. With the dollar down 5% since June, UBS recommends strategies like currency hedging and diversifying into other currencies and assets like gold to reduce risk. (BitcoinCom)

-Institutional Concerns-
1. Bitcoin ETFs see over $500 million inflows in past 2 days (CryptoSlate)

-Economic Indicators-
1. S&P 500 Closes at Record after Powell’s Remarks: US stocks finished in the green on Monday, as investors digested Powell’s comments. The S&P 500 closed at record high adding 0.4% and the Nasdaq also gained 0.4%, while the Dow Jones closed marginally higher. (TradingEconomics)

-Security Incidents and Concerns-
NSTR

-Technology and Science-
1. Apple and Starlink 'Literally Saving Lives' During Hurricane Helene Crisis: Apple iPhone users with later models can use satellite technology to send messages while cellular and WiFi services are down thanks to a new feature in iOS 18 that's "literally saving lives" in flood-ravaged North Carolina, residents say. The new feature “kinda just popped up for me and was like ‘connect to satellite,’" Matt Van Swol, an Asheville resident, told Decrypt via Twitter. “I’ve never been more thankful to be an iPhone user.” Another satellite technology being brought to bear in Asheville and across the South is Elon Musk’s Starlink, whose terminals are being deployed across the impacted areas. (Decrypt)

-Bitcoin Community-
1. Bitcoin miner CleanSpark restores 200MW in the wake of Hurricane Helene: CleanSpark shuts down 365 MW at Georgia sites and begins phased restoration after Hurrican Helene, and has restored 200 MW at Georgia sites, with full restoration by Oct. 4. CleanSpark expects bitcoin hashrate to reach 28 EH/s once fully operational. (TheBlock)

2. Square’s Patent For Crypto Payment Network Approved: Other payment processors like BitPay have allowed automatic conversion of cryptocurrencies into local currency before. The main difference is the high level of market penetration that Square has across the globe. Dorsey also says that Square’s interest in Bitcoin goes beyond just buying and selling it. The Square Cash app already features bitcoin trading, adding a cryptocurrency payment system to the app is a good move if Square really wants to promote bitcoin usage. (CoinTrust)

-Bitcoin Sentiment-
1. Fear(0)/Greed(100) Index: 50/100 (Down 11 pts)

Analyst Comments (AC): NSTR

Follow us on NOSTR:  npub1qktts9naunvjdwsktq5xjdhwh539xt4x0mqj4yxq0q9dvm03ljvs6sms0r
____________________
Analyst: BV2A
END REPORT
NNNN
*NSTR-Nothing Significant To Report
https://m.primal.net/IxVg.jpg


These Mastermind discussions with  nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z,  nostr:npub1s9z7pwy96thwt7zvmrlpfnddstezxxphx9rx3m0660sgkwld9eescjnszc, and  nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs are some of my favorite conversations of the year.

Just four dudes sitting around, talking about life, the economy, #Bitcoin, Blackrock, scams, price targets... and whatever else Preston brings up.

Strong recommend that you pour yourself a beverage, put the discussion on, and enjoy the conversation with us.

Also, tune in to find out why I think  nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs will lose his #bitcoin bet and have to eat a pumpkin pie this Thanksgiving.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kgpeH9MOg0


Pro tip: Never confuse venture capital backing with long-term value.


Yep.
Decentralized, secure, NEUTRAL, energy money.


Yes. I’ve always been a blue collar guy working in a white collar world.


Same.


US Private Sector Job Growth Surges in September

Private employers in the United States added 143,000 jobs in September, significantly outpacing expectations and the previous month's figures. The latest ADP National Employment Report revealed a robust labor market, with hiring exceeding the estimated 125,000 jobs. This marks a substantial increase from August's 99,000 job additions, signaling continued economic resilience. The Biden credit-pump seems to work... at least until election day!?

#US #LaborMarket #EconomicGrowth #EmploymentData


I must say that this conversation with  nostr:npub1zx5cqhywhwxwdx5atdp6tku5k0vahzhy8uny7rwfj47477uvcvyqzcwmqm and  nostr:npub15cpx3ras8rerwlsz43wncgpd85lrxvy4rp5p0zsp2ytgaywqhues8y6nda of Bitcoin Veterans was even more fun and wide-ranging than I had expected!

I even told my famous (infamous?) "Digging for Gold" story from my Nursing Assistant days while living in Jerusalem... Apologies to those with a weak stomach. 🤢 😂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR3Cf56dwys


https://m.primal.net/LIXV.png

When the #bitcoin omega candle finally comes...

 nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l


Join us now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR3Cf56dwys


Anyone going to Plan B Forum in Lugano this month?


lol…


Epic. 😂


Happiness is an empty weight room. 🧡💪
https://m.primal.net/LHnV.jpg


The older (and less trusting) you get, the more all of these wars feel contrived.

Seems more like drumming up political votes and business for the Military Industrial Complex.

nostr:note17z2marvfwzgpq45mcsr5kfwp8d7jp588fjwfpda67f02pjmk3lustfje0q


Good observations.

Dx: (spoiler alert) Metastatic neuroendocrine neoplasm of the rectum.


STATUS: While y'all are fretting over daily fiat price action, I'm stacking #radiology CME. 👀

https://m.primal.net/LHjd.png


For any degens who insist on trading cyclical assets, here is a quick primer to help improve your longer-term performance:

- In cyclical BULL markets, Buy The Dips (only).

- In cyclical BEAR markets, Short (Sell) The Rips (only).

- In cyclical CRAB markets, Buy The Dips and Sell The Rips.

The challenging part for many noobs is determining what phase of the cycle (BULL, BEAR, or CRAB) we are in, and how your asset of choice historically performs in such a phase.

The majority of traders go broke because they don't understand such things and/or have little or no risk management system in place.

--------

** A much better option for 99% of the people reading this is to simply stack sats and chill. 😎 You will do better over the long-run than 99% of the people (including fellow Bitcoiners) who actively trade and/or attempt to time the markets. **


I also like this calculator.
Thanks for sharing it!


Absolutely.
Almost every major system is broken, as the underlying (fiat) money is broken.
#Bitcoin changes incentives and will fix #healthcare... and the #military... and the #education system... etc.


GM #nostr.

(Purchasing) Power to the People.

#Bitcoin
#FreedomTech
https://m.primal.net/LHZg.jpg


Regarding the US dollar:

I continue to believe it will be *generally* weaker over the coming 12 months or so... with the $DXY heading sub-100.

However, the recent surge lower has moved the dollar to OVERSOLD levels, and an impressive POSITIVE DIVERGENCE has occurred (see chart below... straight red line and straight green line).

This suggests, to me, that we will see a multi-day or multi-week bounce higher in the US dollar--the strength of which may impede any short-term rallies in risk assets or even #bitcoin.

After the expected bounce higher, hopefully before the end of October 2024, I think that the next #bitcoin bull market (in fiat terms) will begin in earnest.

Just my two sats. Feel free to disregard.

#macro

https://m.primal.net/LHVw.png


A YouTube Short (by OptoThemes) on how #Bitcoin fixes your health...

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ZohM46i2smE


Happy October!!

About a year ago, on another social media app, and after many hours of research, I posted the following:

October 2024
October 2025
October 2026

Someone write these down.

-------

It is now October 2024, and nothing in my mind (or the data I observe) has changed.

Onwards. 🐂

#Bitcoin


🍻
#Nostr-only is simple: I want to quit spending my time, energy, and purchasing power on the centrally-controlled fiat system and focus on building the decentralized and secure future... currently via the #nostr and #Bitcoin networks.


After a long and choppy bull-crab market, Dr. Ross notes that the bull market is here!

 nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l founder, Vailshire Capital Management, joins me to discuss the ongoing sentiment in the markets, global liquidity, pitfalls and opportunities of this bull cycle, holistic living and more!

https://stephanlivera.com/episode/606/


I grew up fairly poor with 3 siblings.

Have had to work hard for everything and will continue to do so.

So I’ve always had a look after yourself first mentality.

#Bitcoin Is changing this.

I’ve set up a lightning wallet that’s sole intention is altruism. Every time the price goes up a certain amount I’m going to do some good with 50% of the gains.

My hope is that this becomes an infinite altruism machine.

I’m 45 and have never done anything like this before.

Fix the money, fix the world.


There are givers and there are takers and you know who you are.


Must be something in the air today.


Getting no fries is inconceivable to the fiat brained.


Complain less. Contribute more.


MARK YOUR CALENDARS!!

As a simple pleb and civilian, I am greatly honored by the invitation to join the nostr:npub1qktts9naunvjdwsktq5xjdhwh539xt4x0mqj4yxq0q9dvm03ljvs6sms0r team as a guest for their YouTube livestream on Tuesday, October 1st, at 7pm ET!

Livestreams are way more fun when the live chat is busy… So plan on hopping on and adding your questions and comments. 🎉


Option B.


BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin (DIB)
Block: 863,492
DTG/ICOD: 1200Z 30Sep24
Precedence: Routine (RR)
Controls: Public Release
QQQQ
__________________________
BLUF: US Southeast is Disaster Area / Israel Strikes all Iranian Proxies / Russia and Ukraine Ramp it Up / Chemical Fire Near Atlanta / Longshoremen Strike Set to Begin Tomorrow / EL Salvador, Argentina Eschew Globalist Ideas / Fake Wallet App on Android Steals / Meta Stored Your Passwords in Plaintext / Truck With EV Batteries on Fire Shuts Down LA Port / SpaceX Rescue Mission to ISS

Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $63,817, 24.18 oz Gold, .15 Median US House
24hr Hi: $66,806 / Lo: $63,273
Vol: $27B (Up 93%)
Mkt Cap: $1.26T (Down 3%)
HashRate: 602 EH/s
Avg Fee Rate: 14 sats/vBtye (Up 700%)
Nodes: 18,933

---Reports---
-International Events-
1. Rollup of Israel Conflict:
(Target Hezbollah): More than 100 people were killed across Lebanon by Israeli strikes on Sunday, according to the country’s health ministry. Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Possible Ground Incursion. A strike was carried out near the Kola intersection in central Beirut in the early hours of Monday morning, the first time Beirut has been hit outside the southern suburbs since 2006. (Guardian, WSJ)
(Target Hamas): The Israel Air Force struck a Hamas command and control center late on Sunday night, which was located in a former school within the northern Gaza Strip, Israel's military said shortly after the strike.(JPost)
(Target Houthis): Israeli Air Force strikes Houthi targets in Yemen with 'extensive' operation. The IDF said targets included power plants and a seaport used to import oil, "which were used by the Houthi terrorist regime to transfer Iranian weapons to the region, in addition to military supplies and oil." (Fox)

2. Russia downs over 100 Ukrainian drones: Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that it had shot down 125 drones overnight across seven regions. The southwestern region of Volgograd came under particularly heavy fire, with 67 Ukrainian drones reportedly downed by Russian air defenses. Elsewhere, 16 civilians were injured in an overnight barrage on the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia after Ukrainian military leaders warned that Moscow could be preparing for a new military offensive in the country’s south. (AP)

-US Events-
1. One storm, 95 dead and a 500-mile path of destruction. Now comes the hard work of recovering from Helene: At least 95 people have died across six states and officials believe there could be more. So far, state and county officials said 36 people died in North Carolina, 25 in South Carolina, 17 in Georgia, 11 in Florida, four in Tennessee and two in Virginia. Many more remain missing, perhaps unable to leave their location or unable to contact family where communications infrastructure is in shreds. Hundreds of roads remain closed, especially in the Carolinas, hampering the delivery of badly-needed supplies. And more than 2 million customers remain without power. (CNN)

2. A fire at a Georgia chemical plant forces evacuations and road closures: The fire broke out on the roof of BioLab in Conyers, Georgia, around 5 a.m. Water from what officials earlier described as a malfunctioned sprinkler head “came in contact with a water reactive chemical and produced a plume,” county officials explained on their website. Conyers is about 30 miles east of Atlanta. The fire was put out around 4 p.m., Rockdale County Fire and Rescue Chief Marian McDaniel said, but the plume from the chemical reaction can still be seen for miles and is causing problems for area residents. The smoke may be visible for several days, she added. Air quality surveys conducted by state and federal agencies “revealed the harmful irritant chlorine” emitting from the facility, county officials said in a news release Monday morning. (CNN)

3. US East and Gulf Coast Ports Face Imminent Shutdown as Union Announces Intent to Strike: The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) on Sunday announced plans for a widespread strike at all Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports, scheduled to begin at 12:01 am on Tuesday, October 1, 2024. he strike would involve 85,000 ILA members and impact ports from Maine to Texas, the ILA said. Despite the high stakes, the Biden administration has indicated that the president does not plan to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act, a federal law that allows presidential intervention in labor disputes that create a national emergency. (QCaptian) (AC-The fact that the USG is not set to intervene indicates there is a political, and probable electoral, dimension to this strike.)

-Regulatory and Legal-
1. Argentina and El Salvador Fight Against the International Agenda: Argentina has parted ways with the United Nations Pact of the Future, commonly called the 2045 Agenda. The resolution, which was approved by 193 countries by the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday, includes 56 different actions engineered to face the “greatest challenges of our time,” including social media censorship, artificial intelligence (AI) regulation, climate change, and the strengthening of global governance structures. Meanwhile, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele issued a warning about the path that the Western world is taking, highlighting that El Salvador could become a shelter for the upcoming “new dark age.” (BitcoinCom)

-Central Bank Digital Currencies-
1. Is BRICS’ new gold-backed currency imminent?: While the gold-backed BRICS currency is still speculative, the idea comes from official statements and hints by members. For example, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has spoken openly about the potential to use a gold-backed stablecoin to challenge U.S. dollar dominance. So, while there has been no official announcement yet, there have been hints from some BRICS big-wigs. The upcoming summit in Kazan is expected to shed light on the matter. (CoinGeek)

-Institutional Concerns-
1. BlackRock Bitcoin Holdings Grow to Nearly $24 Billion: BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings have surged to nearly $23.7 billion after recent acquisitions of $35 million in Bitcoin and $6.4 million in Ethereum. The asset manager's Ethereum reserves now total 350,000 ETH, valued at around $989 million. (Decrypt)

-Economic Indicators-
1. Week Ahead - Oct 1st: It will be a very busy week in the United States, with the labor market report and appearances by several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, taking center stage. Other key data to watch includes JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, and factory orders. (TradingEconomics)

-Security Incidents and Concerns-
1. Fake Wallet App on Android Steals Over $70K From Users: A fake WalletConnect app on Google Play Store stole over $70,000 in a phishing attack before being removed. The malware tricked users into authorizing transactions, accessing their funds, and was downloaded 10,000 times. (Decrypt)

2. Meta Fined €91 Million for Storing Millions of Facebook and Instagram Passwords in Plaintext: In a statement shared with Associated Press, Meta said it took "immediate action" to fix the error, and that it "proactively flagged this issue" to the DPC. (HackerNews)

3. Truck With EV Batteries Caught Fire, Closing Down Port of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Bridges: A truck hauling a load of electric vehicle batteries rolled over in Los Angeles and it saw an explosion following the accident, which led to the batteries catching fire and burning for an extended period. It took a long time for the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) marshals to extinguish the EV batteries that caught on fire, with some still burning until now, according to reports. The LAFD also claimed that it was expected that the fire would run for as much as 24 to 48 hours, and has since led to authorities closing off the Port of Los Angeles and the nearby Port of Long Beach. (TechTimes)

-Technology and Science-
1. SpaceX Launches Rescue Mission For Two Stranded Boeing Starliner Astronauts On ISS: Elon Musk's space company launched a Falcon rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Saturday to rescue the stranded Boeing Starliner astronauts on the International Space Station. NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexander Gorbunov are aboard the Dragon capsule and will reach the ISS on Sunday afternoon. (ZeroHedge)

-Bitcoin Community-
1. Bitcoin maximalist paradox: BTC adoption threatening founding principles: Bitcoin was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis as the people’s currency to bypass the manipulation and mismanagement of the financial systems by governments, financial institutions and special interest groups. Bitcoin has become increasingly concentrated among governments, exchange-traded funds dominated by financial institutions, corporations and whales . Today, 6.5% of total wallets hold 98% of Bitcoins.  Somewhere along the way, an inherent paradox emerged within the Bitcoin maximalist community: Believing in the ideals and purpose of Bitcoin, yet celebrating and depending upon the very institutions Bitcoin was built to circumvent. (CoinTelegraph)

-Bitcoin Sentiment-
1. Fear(0)/Greed(100) Index: 61/100 (Even)

Analyst Comments (AC): The hurricane in the southeast is having surprising extended effects of the population. After the initial shock of the devastation, the response has been outnumbered by those in need and in bad situations. Roads into western NC are all down and power and water are still out in much of FL, GA, SC, NC, TN and VA. Government  responses are simply inadequate and neighbors are stepping in to do the work. Volunteers and social media are simply saving lives. While this is occurring, the longshoremen strike is set to stop shipments into eastern ports and even a chemical fire near Atlanta is forcing a whole region to stay indoors, without AC, in 90 degree weather and many without power. The situation in not good in the southeast. If you are reading this, be proactive now and stock up food, water, medicines and supplies before thing get worse. Become one of those volunteers today and check in on others or help out where you can.

Follow us on NOSTR:  npub1qktts9naunvjdwsktq5xjdhwh539xt4x0mqj4yxq0q9dvm03ljvs6sms0r
____________________
Analyst: BV2A
END REPORT
NNNN
*NSTR-Nothing Significant To Report
https://m.primal.net/IEtb.jpg


Confession: I like real people. 🧡


Yup.
Month-end and quarter-end rebalancing is real.


Peak fantasy world before reality hits hard.

History is cyclical.


GM.

Orange is the new green.


Sometimes it is appropriate to disrupt the status quo.


FYI: Month-end and quarter-end rebalancing is real.


Ugh * its

I hate typos. 💩


Free markets are more productive because more ideas compete to provide value to you.

A global free market equals faster deflation with every person in the world becoming wealthier as the productivity gains flow to them in the form of lower prices.

But, that comes at a direct cost to those extracting value from the world through a control system that gains its power…..by stealing ours.

Our world and each of us in it makes perfect sense.
Just a mirror reflection of two different operating systems with the system you give your energy to, reinforcing your reality.

The one based on coercion, control, and scarcity! An extractive model, preying on fear while the majority make it stronger (in their minds) by their actions within it.

Or

The one based on truth, hope, and abundance. A cooperative model - where we see that we are all connected.

#Bitcoin and freedom tech.

Choose wisely!


#NukeX and it’s “toxic nonsense.” 🔥

Welcome to #nostr, Tara!

nostr:note1aqxexr6m46akxd78n23d932hmpjtmfmq7az07n505wu6t59tq72sd8dtl3


Easiest in brokerage accounts and with bitcoin (or especially, “crypto”) proxies.
1.  Short sell.
2. Buy puts.
3. Increase cash position.


Welcome to #nostr-only, Tara!


Thanks to nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe, every day I spend a little time contemplating:

- How can I further extract myself from the fiat system, of which I am deeply entrenched?

- How can I transfer more of my time, energy, and purchasing power into the #Bitcoin network?


It really comes down to this simple decision matrix:

OPTION #1: If you would rather have life get continually more expensive while quality gets worse, then choose to save in dollars.

OPTION #2: If you would rather have life get continually more affordable while quality improves, then choose to save in #Bitcoin.


You don’t actually need to zap me, but it should be set up with the address: fuchsiabadger8@primal.net


Great advice.


I used multiple models, TA, and liquidity metrics to come up with it.

It’s still no more than a guess. I know it will be wrong. I just hope to be generally correct in vector terms.


You’re too kind, Stephan.
You also do a great job with your interviews.

Thanks again for inviting me onto your show!


nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l bringing the signal with nostr:npub1r8l06leee9kjlam0slmky7h8j9zme9ca32erypgqtyu6t2gnhshs3jx5dk.

Prices of stuff about to crash measured with #Bitcoin.

https://youtu.be/AoaFbRKiAQM


Thanks Chuck! 🍻


I think it’s interesting.
But I generally don’t make fund management decisions based upon on chain data.


Maybe. But that’s not how I make my investment decisions.

Also, I know of several intelligent, very well known people who believe that we are in or headed into a recession, and that stocks and bitcoin are going to crash hard in the near future.


Buy puts. Initiate a short position. Increase relative cash position.


Regarding purchasing power…

Don’t miss out on the upside of #bitcoin because you are fearful of the occasional downside volatility.

It’s amazing to me how many otherwise intelligent people pay this opportunity cost while using volatility as an excuse.

They are falling further and further behind.

Three practical tips if you find bitcoin’s volatility intolerable:
1. Small position size.
2. Don’t use leverage.
3. Hedge. It’s not that hard to do.


Thanks for the listen and for the kind words. 🍻


Thanks for watching!


I’m still guessing $475k before the end of 2025.


Yes. Buckle up. 😂


This was a great conversation.

Thanks for having me on your show, nostr:npub1r8l06leee9kjlam0slmky7h8j9zme9ca32erypgqtyu6t2gnhshs3jx5dk! ⚡

nostr:note1kjfju0ac34efgt3wsqu7zjxd0zvkq5v3ynzj9d8a3y5jufgptkcq3mgu5a


A sly, roundabout way to devalue centralized social media.

#nostr


Dr. Bullcrab died in late August.


Essentially, yes.


Accurate. 😂


I would eat these.


Haha… awesome! 🍻


Don’t underestimate the importance of resurgent Chinese liquidity. 🇨🇳

Also, recall that #Bitcoin is The Great Absorber of Liquidity.

Cheers.


What if, thanks to the Federal Reserve, credit events have essentially been replaced by debasement events?

Can major, traditional credit events even occur in the age of central bank manipulation?

(H/t to Jordi Visser and Raoul Pal)


Yes.


Glad my posts occasionally help! 🍻


I’m obviously just guessing, but yes.


Have mercy.


Cheer up.

This time it’s for real.


Haha... you're right. I just had to look up the differences again.

Thanks for the education. 🍻


Actually, I mislabeled it as a #MuleDeerstr.
Instead, it’s a #WhiteTailstr

I used to only see mule deer in Colorado, but there has been an influx of whitetails over the recent years.


GM from Vailshire World Headquarters.

#Buckstr
#MuleDeerstr
#Rackstr
https://m.primal.net/LCoV.jpg


nostr is hope

but hope demands courage

and there's a lot of weak men out there

in any case, you get freedom at the price you deserve


Sounds good.


Forget the Fed… Don’t fight the flows.


UPDATE: Remember this post from Sept 17th? Back when #bitcoin was still chillin at $58k. 👀

Liquidity volume and flows matter.

Ignore this correlation at your own peril.

Just saying. 🐂

#Bitcoin

nostr:note1tjv5ql39shwwg8sl93rr5vt9d4z8qt8w74nnjjjrpsjl288vffcqsg8xjz


You still bearish, bruv?

Where my Doom and Gloomers at today?


Agreed.


Always be learning.


That’s great news.


This might be your best interview yet. Thanks for setting it up with George. 🍻


I just finished—and thoroughly enjoyed—listening to the conversation.

I learned a ton about eCash and Cashu.

Thanks nostr:npub12rv5lskctqxxs2c8rf2zlzc7xx3qpvzs3w4etgemauy9thegr43sf485vg and nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z!

nostr:note1qvcnv4yysyrt6ul9cn87vnzjamue50cn0lg8dvjtrg4r9hlgsz6sz79q5u


I hear you.

Jeff does a great job with this discussion and George is starting to come around.


I hear you.

Remember that it takes time to build out a new decentralized, secure, permissionless monetary and financial network for the world.

Patient hodlers and builders will be rewarded in due time.


A mandatory listen for my #nostr peeps.

Another banger by  nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe with George Gammon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwSj0qpT3jw


We are early.

Don’t lose hope and, importantly, keep building and supporting #Bitcoin circular economies.


Love this. 🧡

#Argentina 🇦🇷

nostr:note1yw8t36e6qhttqgdu6xmk2nxh83nkhg4xupt790rp2750msv9da0sgfwp6z


Good analogy.


If #Bitcoin is decentralized, secure, permissionless energy money…

then what is a share of a spot Bitcoin ETF?


Perpetual Accrual of Purchasing Power

#PAPP

#Bitcoin

Get some.

🐂


Nice research, Lyn and Sam. It's a great contribution to the space!

nostr:note1qtlqqs5qgcjw4rsykhcyne5j0fh5fne6vvtwxa036pwnr8ktgvnqdlrtr3


FWIW (not much), I think $CLSK below $10 is a killer buy for the next 13-15 months.


Global M2 monetary supply is already starting to increase again.

Three examples of how:

- Lower interest rates literally translate immediately into lower variable/short term debt payments (e.g., HELOCs, credit card loans, small business loans), meaning higher cash savings for individuals and businesses... that is, higher M2.

- A weaker US dollar means better foreign currency exchange rates, and easier (US denominated) debt repayments around the world... increasing M2.

- Economic growth means more bank lending and growth of M2.


Higher.


If there is any risk for investors in the markets today, it's the risk of sitting on the sidelines--waiting for the terrible and *inevitable* #recession, constantly heralded by Doom and Gloomers--while risk assets and, especially, #bitcoin melt faces in 2025.

With a 12-14 month outlook, I continue to think that this is a terrible time to be overly bearish or conservative.

#macro
#investing
🐂


The #bitcoin carry trade (aka, “speculative arbitrage”) remains the trade of the decade.

It’s hiding in plain sight from the majority of Wall Street traders and investors.


Ty.
It’s been a minute.


Warning:

Vehemently stacking sats may greatly reduce the time needed for you to reach financial independence and optionality.

#Bitcoin and chill at your own risk.


Less hyperbole, please.

Internetization, not hyperinternetization.

Bitcoinization, not hyperbitcoinization.


#bitcoin #nostr #meme #zap

https://m.primal.net/KzJs.jpg


Life of Bitcoiner.

#bitcoin #nostr #memes

https://m.primal.net/KyIU.jpg


Sorry. Can’t help you.


Yes sir.


Accurate.


After a much-needed multi-month sabbatical from doing any podcast interviews, I'm looking forward to getting back into the action this week!

Upcoming interviews include an always lively, quarterly Mastermind discussion with  nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z,  nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs, and  nostr:npub1s9z7pwy96thwt7zvmrlpfnddstezxxphx9rx3m0660sgkwld9eescjnszc; as well as one-on-one conversations with  nostr:npub1r8l06leee9kjlam0slmky7h8j9zme9ca32erypgqtyu6t2gnhshs3jx5dk and  nostr:npub1gfxgylgst4lcemkjth6xdvcvq7le8rtlrym7wayml63qrjggngaqkqescl.

The transition from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull is complete. 🐂  It's time to get the party started...

#macro
#Bitcoin
#investing


Wen Strike Big Mallers Mode?
 nostr:nprofile1qqsvf646uxlreajhhsv9tms9u6w7nuzeedaqty38z69cpwyhv89ufcqpzemhxue69uhkummnw3ex2mrfw3jhxtn0wfnj7z8y9jp

Direct deposit 100% to BTC
Strike credit for monthly fiat expenses
Auto monthly sell btc to pay


I like it.


Solid nutrition advice. ⚡

nostr:note1p2eazy0shyxnejhmcd0luhfpgs059du9l7j0uwffwtq29vnsyf8suuj5d5


GM https://image.nostr.build/f8e736100a24def205361e28b66849e5f5dc2311ba6d443f67072bd453479d22.jpg


Great pic.


Today some neighbouring villages celebrated Alpabzug to welcome autumn.
https://v.nostr.build/lT0JtkHuuBUZrOcV.mp4


Love this.


#Bitcoin and chill.
https://m.primal.net/Kwru.jpg


Dr. Jeff

Random pleb, physician, and fund manager.

I generally don’t respond to DMs.


The good life. 🤝


That’s unfortunate. I hope you recover quickly and completely.


More #bitcoin circular economies, please.


"Scarcity powers innovation."
-  nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe


My progression of old home ownership:
1. Love.
2. Love-hate.
3. Resent.
4. Moved to a new home, then remodeled it for maximum newness. 😂


No


For what it's worth (very little), I am having a good experience so far using  nostr:npub12vkcxr0luzwp8e673v29eqjhrr7p9vqq8asav85swaepclllj09sylpugg on my phone.

Will recommend.

Onwards. #nostr


25 mg of diphenhydramine might be helpful if you're still itchy and swollen.


GOOD NEWS: I CHOOSE YOU TO BE MY YIELD.


STATUS: Bored with seemingly every topic.


Here’s a link:

https://www.clubhouse.com/room/p7pfN2aE8XiZ3RG92:9dUkU66dxiELDsddRK800s3_M_Vv3Xo8oTTGpc1ISM4?utm_medium=ch_instant_invite&utm_campaign=unZByzbmnk1eu2XLlIveCA-1430381


It's been a minute...

So I'm thinking of opening a new (and probably short) Doom and Gloom Room today over on Clubhouse, for anyone interested in:
- macro
- Bitcoin
- bonds
- stonks
- living well
- investing wisely

As usual, I am not selling anything and the room probably won't be very interesting.

Any interest?


Slowly at first.
Then all at once (with leverage).

🐂


lol… accurate


1.9.1 (4)


As anticipated, the 50 bps drop of the federal funds rate yesterday has resulted in a drop of the Prime Rate from 8.5% to 8.0%.

Short-term borrowers (those with HELOCs, credit card debt, etc.) should soon see some much-needed relief via lower rates in the coming days/weeks.

https://m.primal.net/KvAJ.png


My Damus client is unresponsive, so I can't zap anyone at the moment.

Primal desktop works well for most things, but I can't currently zap while using it.


Thanks for the recs.

I already tried logging out of Damus, with no change when I logged back in.

If  nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s or someone else from  nostr:npub18m76awca3y37hkvuneavuw6pjj4525fw90necxmadrvjg0sdy6qsngq955 isn't able to help, I'll probably try Nostur.

Cheers.


One of the reasons I came to #nostr was to escape Twitter Creed enthusiasts.


Using  nostr:npub12vkcxr0luzwp8e673v29eqjhrr7p9vqq8asav85swaepclllj09sylpugg, I swapped out my old "recommended" relays for the following relays, and have already noticed a better experience.

Thanks  nostr:npub1utx00neqgqln72j22kej3ux7803c2k986henvvha4thuwfkper4s7r50e8!

However, my phone's  nostr:npub18m76awca3y37hkvuneavuw6pjj4525fw90necxmadrvjg0sdy6qsngq955 client is now unresponsive. The new clients are not shown on Damus, and when I try to add them, it won't allow me to do so.

Any thoughts  nostr:npub1xtscya34g58tk0z605fvr788k263gsu6cy9x0mhnm87echrgufzsevkk5s?

Without my Damus client, I have lost the ability to zap as well.

nostr:note1qpykj8mljjgy7sy7eunufjtveegnczx78jyn898n2wpv48uq4dkqyrpds6


Doom and gloomers still calling for an imminent major #recession in the US this morning.

Doom and gloomers still wrong.

#Normalization, not #recession.


Great post, Jeff! ⚡


I’m writing this because I keep getting asked to comment on Saylor/Saif video even though my position hasn’t changed.

The natural state of the free market is deflation which means all prices fall forever in Bitcoin (assuming it stays decentralized and secure)

Free market economies are more productive meaning faster deflation (or real wealth gains by falling prices)

That system is incompatible with an inflationary monetary system meaning one of those systems must fail.

Either:

1) A system based on truth, hope, and abundance for all 8 billion people on the planet driven by a free market economy and all prices fall relative to bitcoin forever. This means Bitcoin is used as a medium of exchange and freedom tech spreads to the world through lightning, Liquid, Fedimint, Cashu, etc.

OR

2) A control system. An extractive rent seeking system that is NOT the free market (similar to the one we have had for 5000 years that resets every 100 or so years through war) continues to centralize by having you believe price of bitcoin is going up in fiat which makes the surveillance state stronger. This eventually centralizes Bitcoin - custodians, media, regulation (funded from the same manipulation of money) where it is attacked from layer 2. (Similar to gold)

While these ideas may “seem” compatible in the short term because you want Bitcoin to go up in fiat. What it really means is that you are giving your energy and strength to the system centralizing the world by converting Bitcoin to Fiat….to then measure prices.

Quite simply - If Bitcoin is only a store of value, it fails as a store of value.

Ps - It won’t fail. #1 is inevitable in time because too many (and more each day) have seen behind the curtain and are determined to build path #1.

Many of you here - the people that inspire me every day.  You make a difference with every word, thought and action.
Almost did that in all caps per nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx because it’s so important.

Referring to # 1 above…..There is no second best.


Great chart! 🤝


https://m.primal.net/Kuim.png

This is a great chart. BTC price (black) and global M2 (blue). The two are highly correlated, as is often pointed our by  nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l.

Historically, #bitcoin bull markets have coincided with increases in global M2... which has just begun to increase again now. Hold on to your hats!

#bullish

Source: bgeometrics


The Fed just cut rates with entrenched inflation above 2.5%, the government is running multi-trillion dollar non-recessionary deficits, and a President just bought cheeseburgers using #Bitcoin. Welcome to the future.


Please do.


I hope so.


Lol... probably.


I hate to be that guy... but I feel compelled to post that we are at (or very near) the point of saying goodbye to #58kforever forever.


Yes. #Normalization, not #recession.


Incoming: Standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations offering rate of 4.8%.

Down from 5.3%, previously. Which has been the standing rate since August 2023.

Short term (~1-3 months) T-bill yields will quickly reflect this new rate.

nostr:note19th0qqm4v2vumpc8vsh2e4k5t8yj648puyufk9626tnmgt7frgps74pzpz


Prime rate is derived from the federal funds rate, which was lowered today from 5.25-5.5% to 4.75-5.0%.

HELOCs and other short term lending rates are based, in part, off of the prime rate.

Hopefully, many Americans who are getting beaten down by such high interest rates will feel some relief in the coming months... in the form of lower interest rate payments.


No.
50 bps is a pretty typical first move and it's as the markets *expected*


BREAKING: 50 bps it is.

"In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."

nostr:note1hd9m492hw65utrl645zhfq8nfz5j2qz9rf69r4l909zxf2a7jzjsa4ly3y


Yes.


Anyone who tells you that Red Meat is not part of a proper human diet is either ignorant, dishonest or trying to sell you something.


I like the TA of $MSTR here... and like $CLSK even better for the short-to-mid term.


As for me, I like the stock.

But, as always, it's better to own the real thing... That is, bitcoin in cold storage.


FYI.

Regarding the federal funds effective rate (FFER), overnight reverse repurchase (ORR) agreements, Treasury bills, and US net liquidity.

https://m.primal.net/Ktuh.png


Generally speaking, if the FFER is higher than the one month (and similar) T-bill yield, then money market funds will park their cash in the ORR facility to earn a higher short-term risk free rate. This results in a contraction of US net liquidity.

Conversely, if the FFER is lower than the one month (and similar) T-bill yield, then money market funds will remove their cash from the ORR facility and buy T-bills. This results in expansion of US net liquidity.


Since almost everyone is stupid about compounding even me.

Here’s the math.

Using nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m's base case (13MM a coin by 2045) as the example…

Saving $20 a week = $1,200,000 in 2045

Saving $50 a week = $3,000,000 in 2045

Saving $100 a week = $6,000,000 in 2045

Saving $500 a week = $30,000,000 in 2045

Saving $1,000 a week = $60,000,000 in 2045

Now let’s get properly bullish and use Saylors bull case 🐂 of $49 million per coin by 2045.

Saving $20 a week = $3,600,000 in 2045

Saving $50 a week = $9,000,000 in 2045

Saving $100 a week = $18,200,000 in 2045

Saving $500 a week = $90,000,000 in 2045

Saving $1,000 a week = $181,500,000 in 2045

If you save $20-$50 a week over the next 21 years you will end up with somewhere between 1.2 and 9 million dollars.

I mean bro for Americans that’s like me asking you not to go out to lunch once or twice a week.

That’s nothing. https://image.nostr.build/624b110fc7c9489badb805e3d715e5993543b37370086a45dc184e91c2dc3757.jpg


GM #nostr. ☕ https://image.nostr.build/048d74de3ae1ffae4bc9b83b6160a28d586752a56e4658c0845035436fd2903d.jpg


They probably won't announce the start of QE (purchasing Treasuries and/or MBS) today. Instead, they are likely to focus on the federal funds rate and their future intentions (with the FFR).

US net liquidity is separate from global M2 monetary supply... but they generally ebb and flow in relation to each other.


I'm sure I'll have some opinions after Powell's press conference this afternoon.


What I'm watching... 👀

The Federal Funds Effective Rate (FFER) has been set at 5.33% since August 2023.

It will almost certainly be lower by the end of the day.

The FFER heavily influences short-term T-bill rates, as well as the amount and flow of money utilizing Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements... which is a significant component of US Net Liquidity.

#macro

https://m.primal.net/Ktpd.png


Agreed. 🤝


On the morning of (an unusually pivotal) #FOMC meeting, the CME futures market is predicting a 65% chance of a 50 bps cut of the federal funds rate, and a 35% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.

MORE IMPORTANT TO ME as a fund manager is what the FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell have to say (definitively) about the Fed's balance sheet going forward.

Will #QE begin in earnest? Or will the Fed wait for turmoil in the bond markets before ending "not-QT"?

In other words, will a new wave of liquidity begin to flow from the US government into the private sector? If so, at what rate?

Because we have non-free, centrally-manipulated markets, I will be watching today's events with great interest.

🍿 #macro

https://m.primal.net/KtoA.png


Looks delicious.
GM.


Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up.

So, for like the zillionth time...

The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that:

1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k.

2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action.

3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action.

Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin.

Cheers. 🍻


#bitcoin #nostr #bank #meme

https://m.primal.net/Krck.jpg


Global M2, yes.


For context:

Global M2 (bottom blue line) is finally rising materially again.

Gold has been responding nicely... up +33% in the past year!

#bitcoin is up an eye-watering +126%... which is an impressive 12-month performance. But it will likely be dwarfed by the coming 13-15 month performance, if history is any guide. 👀

https://m.primal.net/KtJk.png

nostr:note1m0yq0nfxzzs4nmsa3g4tx380yy0aawq7u92ue7056yr40w3tkp4s3f4ru7


Everything that's good for #gold is 10x-100x good for #bitcoin.


Bitcoin Magazine (via UTXO) is an investor.

But it is Dylan LeClair, specifically, who is the head of Bitcoin Strategy and speculative arbitrage for Metaplanet. Though he is still young, I have much confidence in Dylan and his abilities.


It's possible.


It's always a game of probabilities.


There's a strong possibility that the next bull market will begin, in earnest, at 2pm ET on Sept 18, 2024.... Although it may start slowly at first while market participants wrap their heads around the FOMC statement over the ensuing days/weeks.

Late 1990s style.

Could be a humdinger for #bitcoin.


Nostr is good for people who have trust issues. I don’t trust corporate social media. I don’t care who the owner or CEO is. I don’t trust governments to care about free speech and freedom of expression. They broke that trust long ago.

I love nostr because I don’t have to trust any of you to use it.


UPDATE: Atlanta Fed GDPNow

3.0% (actual) vs 2.5% (expected) vs 2.5% (prior)

#Normalization, not #recession.


3350 is a ticker on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.


No.


"The only way to beat bitcoin is more bitcoin."
-  nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m

I concur.

Wise speculative arbitrage is essentially the only way to outperform #bitcoin over the long-term.

$MSTR and $3350 seem to be doing a good job of it so far...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7XhzXMSAPo


Just nuked my #X, felt good. Am I doing this right?? nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l


Nice work. Welcome!


Finally, brothers, whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is commendable, if there is any excellence, if there is anything worthy of praise, think about these things.

Philippians 4:8 ESV
https://image.nostr.build/e335dbe5f1b96f7c8e004bb90f030fa03a311b04bc1603da825b5a5c6210ac72.jpg

#church #faith #Christ #Jesus #God #bible #wordofGod #humble #gospel #scripture #scriptures #biblestudy #study #salvation #grace #sermon #sermons #sermonnotes


https://m.primal.net/KqAf.png Got to a1500 rating on chess.com


Correct.
I like to say, "Risk only equals volatility in academia."


My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site:

"Buying eggs with bitcoins."

Since they started keeping track in January 2015 through August 2024, the price of a dozen eggs:

- In US dollars: Up +51.7%, from $2.11 to $3.20.

https://m.primal.net/KpFe.png

- In #bitcoin: Down -99.4%, from 925,406 sats to 5,348 sats.

https://m.primal.net/KpFd.png

CONCLUSION: Life gets ever more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.

Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money...

The choice is yours.

Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/


No


I am here for it. $MSTR

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149410-microstrategy-buys-183k-bitcoins-for-111b


Same. 😢


Back above $60k.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMzdpMDc4dGNiZjNxdG0wNXF1aWI3eWtycjZwYXNqcXVvdTFiNTluNCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/l0MYH8Q83CXvKzXyM/giphy.gif


A fantastic discussion about Risk... by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, one of the great investors of our age.

Strong recommend.

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/education/how-to-think-about-risk-with-howard-marks


These four examples are what we mean when we say:

#Bitcoin is repricing the world. 🌎

nostr:note1cze88qz6pvcha3wm4v27e5ycxqju6r8xdr7hh6q4papxtvtdpwkspgdc7c


It seems to depend on the day. Some days Primal (desktop) and Damus (phone) work great, while other days... not so much.

That said, they have drastically improved UI/UX over the past 12 months.


Nice.
And no, we transitioned in August from bullcrab to full-on bull. Sats won't be this cheap much longer, imho.


The Times They Are A-Changin' 😂

You love to see it.

X is now dead to me.

#nostr for the win. 🧡 ⚡

nostr:note1pcnj6tr8s55d3du0h8kgm6pg7n7naqez8cpcfer09nam2uf49gmq7tt0tp


What I'm watching... 👀

A five-year chart of popular global assets priced (appropriately) in neutral energy money (#bitcoin).

STATUS:
- $QQQ: Down -63%
- #Gold: Down -76%
- $DXY: Down -86%
- $TLT: Down -89%

OPINION: Choose your reserve asset(s) wisely.

https://m.primal.net/KopC.png


Absolute legend. 🫂🧡
https://i.nostr.build/YMDYpVaiEnEBP9Ek.jpg


I love seeing fellow Bitcoiners teaching economics to the next generation. 🤝


Debasing fiat currency + Time = Increasing income inequality

It's wild (to me) that almost no Economics professors or anyone in mainstream media seem to understand this.

#Bitcoin, of course, is the solution to this terrible problem.


You hate to see it.


GM.

(Purchasing) Power to the People.

#Bitcoin


Dropped nostr:npub1593cfkv5cyx8srdp8exuz524uvkdk0p4y2tek6mwa22j6v4plv0smyn7nm off at college recently. It was pretty lit. 🎉🎉 https://image.nostr.build/e8f8f533af426bc98d98ba30b2ef0ed7dd193cb2b7eabcca57659f9b00e03b73.jpg


Might start playing again… https://image.nostr.build/6471685120b324f864a755f30e31159cfae23f36ab68d3bf6d4df26e875716f0.jpg


Brilliant. 😂


Saylor getting ready for another podcast 🔊
https://v.nostr.build/NHRZCv7BChVilyaJ.mp4


ALL of the things measured from within a system that steals from you are designed to keep you in it.  Feeding on your energy and getting more chaotic and dangerous.

Prisoners dilemma of the highest order that most people as prisoners can’t see.

My sobering thoughts this morning after reading Nuclear War by Annie Jacobson.

Choose your time wisely!

#Bitcoin
#Nostr
#Fedimint
#Cashu


Most people are liabilities.

Be an asset.


Lyn is one of the best.


Nice.


Yes.


Not a dumb question.
Historically, there has been a lag, but it varies over time. Currently, it's about 10 weeks.


A fantastic chart from Julian Bittel of #RealVision showing Global M2 (with a ten-week lead) and the price of #bitcoin in US dollar terms.

Like me, Julian believes that we are in the final days and weeks of accumulating bitcoin at relatively dirt-cheap prices.

You do you... but I think it is unwise to keep sitting on the sidelines during a global M2 bull market.

As you and I know, #Bitcoin is the Great Absorber of Liquidity.

https://m.primal.net/Kntr.png


Whether she knows it or not, Judy Shelton is hard core Bitcoiner.

She just needs to make the natural transition from #gold to #Bitcoin as the obvious preferred stateless, sound, bearer asset for the Digital Age.

Great interview today on #Hedgeye with Keith McCullough.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/155375-webcast-a-real-conversation-with-judy-shelton?type=macro


Our work is not yet finished.

Unfortunately, many poor souls still have glaring symptoms of Fiat Brain Disease.

Rx: #Bitcoin education. STAT.


I don't take any investment or other financial "expert" seriously who doesn't take #Bitcoin seriously.

Missing this incredibly obvious secular trend continues to be the greatest opportunity cost in the entire history of humankind.

This is not hyperbole.


Legend.


#bitcoin continues to be the #58kforever stablecoin.

That said, our beloved "stablecoin" is actually up 616% over the past five years (see chart below).

To compare, the total return (dividends included) of the S&P 500 ($SPXTR) is up 103% over the same time period.

OPINION: #58kforever won't actually last forever...

Beware the (massive) opportunity cost of not owning #bitcoin over the long-term.

https://m.primal.net/KnFO.png


The US dollar is prices go up (forever) technology.

#Bitcoin is prices go down (forever) technology.

PgD >> PgU


One #bitcoin = 100,000,000 purchasing power units (PPUs), also known as “satoshis” (sats).

These energy-based PPUs will not only increase your optionality over time, they will change the world.

Said another way, Bitcoin is better money for a better world.


Originally posted one week ago… even more true today.

I maintain that this is a fantastic time to stack sats on the cheap. nostr:note1y9lpx58xcf42euuhrzelm7r58vt77sdlf4wqg9cy8lry6y09zjhsngnknu


“Everyone is wrong! I am right!”

“Sign up for my subscription service to find out why.”

- everyone, everywhere

Make it stop. 🤦🏻♂


My Damus notifications have not been properly updating over the past two to three days. This seems to occur intermittently every couple of months.


Indeed.


So… who “won”? nostr:note1ywx3xqz74fk4s5zdwamaua0fgrnw2yqw7h652nfvpehkknmv4weqqr7kne


#CPI year over year:

2.5% (actual) vs 2.6% (expected) and 2.9% (previous)

#Normalization, not #recession.


“Shocking”? 🤔 nostr:note1ednuzqer775kmqycq05zatn3tdrjywtp2gmr304gng3gf9v73uksxedztx


Welcome Ken!


PREDICTIONS for tonight's presidential debate:

- #Democrats will think (strongly) that #Harris won

- #Republicans will think (strongly) that #Trump won

- #Independents will wonder (and complain about) why we have two such terrible options to choose from

- #Bitcoiners will ignore the noise, stack sats, and chill


“The primary way to decouple #Bitcoin from the world's fiat financial system is through education.” -nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l
https://m.primal.net/KdJh.jpg


It feels weird to be proud of a billionaire, but in bitcoin terms I’m a big bro to Michael.

This is a powerfully redemptive moment for him. His Hodl journey has been very public and just as emotive and full of turmoil as the rest of us.

Michael was peers with bezos. He was one of the longest reigning tech ceos from the dot com bubble onwards. Except unlike bezos he was overlooked, his company left to chug along for decades. Neither taking over the world, nor exploding in infamy. Just a solid company that existed in relative obscurity to most of the population. It must have bothered Michael somewhat. Because you can tell that he is just as smart and calculating as his famous peers who’ve gotten all the headlines over the last 25 years. To them he’s like the rest of us Bitcoiner’s. A bit of a misfit. Someone who fell through the cracks.

After years of patience he can now confidently sit in the CNBC studio and declare to the talking heads and the world direct to their faces. “Yes I was right. Yes I am beating all of you”.

That’s the redemptive power of bitcoin. Whether you’re a billionaire or a pleb. You have the ability to reset your world and take your rightful place at the table.

In many ways large and small bitcoin is about renegotiating your place in the world.
https://m.primal.net/KksP.mov


His public journey has been fun to watch (and invest alongside). ⚡


The internet is digitizing the world.

The internet of money is repricing the world.

#Bitcoin


As neutral energy money, #Bitcoin is purchasing power in its purest form.


Welcome!


Yes. ⚡


Less algorithmicy. More authenticity.
https://image.nostr.build/5ff0e3a3b4635e8674ecdb26f678b6f6aa97fa8edd5466128d0bbb0c9023b41f.jpg


#Bitcoin is cool, but I believe we have a much higher (and eternal) calling to lives of faith and trust in God (and His Word).


What a time to be alive!

Easy access to one of the great preachers of our Age.

Digging into God's Word... studying the Bible with Pastor John Piper.

Today's topic from DesiringGod.org:
"Do Ignorance and Unbelief Deserve Mercy?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cr11A0Z2FM


Stressed out?

Here’s what Jesus says to you:

“Come to me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”

- Matthew 11:28-30 (ESV)


Bullish. 🐂 nostr:note13mdhgakvuu5azskhkfwm6hl0e9zr56x3s9mjwdttm875rvdnm5ls39pmfz


Bored with it all.

Just #Bitcoin, chill, and have a great weekend with people IRL.


Not a bad idea, actually.


It's not reasonably possible to have a strong relationship with someone whom you don't know, no?

If you don't spend time reading the gospels and studying the words of Jesus and what he did, how he responded to people and arguments and detractors, etc., you'll never get an accurate picture of him.

Many people base their opinions of Jesus and Christianity based on goofy church experiences or chump "christians," who don't actually follow Jesus as the Christ.

So... if you're serious and not just trolling, I would recommend spending some serious time reading the books of Matthew, Mark, Luke, John, and Acts (to see how his followers responded after Jesus was crucified), and go from there.

Doing this completely altered my life.


I generally respond like this when people (erroneously) interpret my posts as individual investment advice.

For infotainment purposes only. 🍻


I’m often wrong.


Legend.


Not a divergence. Price and RSI are moving in tandem.


I’m pretty much max bullish right now.  Which only happens every few years or so.


For your contemplation... 👀

Green vertical lines marking September 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 (current) on the monthly #bitcoin chart.

This is the point of the cycle where the bears are seemingly victorious and increasingly insufferable.

This is your last chance to bail before upside volatility (likely) begins to take hold in earnest.

It is your last chance to fill the next four years of your financial life with serious regret.

IF YOU DON'T SELL YOUR BITCOIN IN SEPTEMBER 2024, YOU MAY BE FORCED TO RIDE THE ROCKET HIGHER OVER THE COMING 12-15 MONTHS. 🚀

You have been warned.

https://m.primal.net/KhIC.png


*morale


I am old.


Sallys are crying. Chads are buying.


Yes. nostr:note1p2qxfaen4kycvxarfs4jy2q2fqm7r2ujqp5hm7n4qs0ggknz7aps8uqqar


Who’s talking?
What’s the topic?


Please don’t. 🍻


Vindication is coming soon.

Your neighbors will be asking you for bitcoin advice within the next 12 months.


As a #macro investor, it's hard to express how happy this bullish divergence between #bitcoin price and global M2 monetary supply makes me.

It supersedes all other macro data and TA nonsense.

In short, it is the primest of prime stacking opportunities for the coming 4-5 quarters.

Recall that, among other things, the #Bitcoin monetary network is the Great Absorber of Liquidity.

I doubt that these fire sale prices will last much longer... 🔥 🚀

https://m.primal.net/Kgtc.png


#replyguy https://image.nostr.build/cccef3fa39505b14ac236a25c370301b7dac577df35f3a16f60f5e48bd99d050.jpg


glad I don't listen to mainstream FIAT radio news or discussion... overheard a conversation on a neighbour's radio - awful stuff ... preferring myself to listen to content - podcasts from the likes of nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l , nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe nostr:npub1d3f4m9dgvkdjxn26pqzsxn6lpfn78sxwllxyt8mp76q0a9zyyjlswhr4xv, nostr:npub1cj94enk44kn5mvrcma4sp7jnlsgnn4em7rk3dh3jt4fzyqs3m02s560efa and nostr:npub103m96sra82w4agghew9cdxtzs4s8sl7qsjsvw6h653yml0gjrkzqefd3h5 et al ...

thank God for #bitcoin and #nostr and these great visionaries 💯


Possibly in 2026 or late-2025.
Unlikely before then.


Unlikely in 2024-25. It could possibly go sub-2% in 2026-27, but I think that the days of very low interest rates (like we had in the 2010s and early 2020s) are officially over.


Fed funds rate? Or CPI?


It is in a centrally-controlled system, like we have in the US. These are not "free" markets.


The CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices are currently predicting a 56% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the Sept 18 FOMC meeting vs a 44% chance of a 50 bps rate cut.

In my mind, it's a coin flip (50/50).

Regardless, I don't think we are going to see a massive and prolonged series of rate decreases... primarily because we are not heading into a major #recession, as many doom and gloomers suggest.

This is ongoing #normalization after the unprecedented events of 2020-22, not a typical (or major) #recession.

Invest accordingly.

Cheers.

https://m.primal.net/KgmJ.png


US Unemployment Rate

4.2% (actual) vs 4.2% (forecast) and 4.3% (prior)

#Normalization, not #recession

#macro


GM.

Take life by the horns today.

Also, don’t skip leg day. https://image.nostr.build/fa6552f2ae5c05ecc692f0a4180e096c049b94a90bb80fb5fcbc142f407f616c.jpg


This is the way to be.


It may take two or three decades, but #Bitcoin will inevitably defund and rightsize bloated and overbearing governments.

This sly roundabout way is the ultimate, world-changing, peaceful protest.


#GoingGalt
nostr:nevent1qqs92z0ck4q2et6zefp0zynlc697lmh76fpqpqv5j0m9sauqdgpqr6qppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgrqsqqqqqpxn9r2x


Yes.


This is why I finally quit X. nostr:note1sfkhl08acad57wqupylqspr2dv33664enskmz5k50ecupxx8lfwswxdvf9


Zapping individual builders >> traditional angel investing

⚡


Be ungovernable. nostr:note1m566ql8zsztcnfxj8nextcu2x973xnz0t3572s2a4rq673ltyflseyn7j3


Definitely


It’s fun to yell at those poor souls who are actually doing the real work. 😂


Soon.
Just believe.


#58kforever nostr:note17gl5mfqnwgyag4d3sgwdathmvf5pq4tp2czsx8pp6a68wpg9f5psxlry8c


I just like the NOSTR and not being programmed by antihuman algos… is that enough? For me, yes. #vivalanostr


Random movie recommendation: Elvis (2022)

I have always liked his music, but this movie gave me a 10x appreciation for him and his work as a musician.

https://m.primal.net/KfqQ.png


HODLing and using Bitcoin can be a strange path to follow. At first, you want to try and 'save people'.

Then after a while, you realise you can't save them because lots of people don't want to be saved.

Help the people who are willing to listen, and be patient about it.


I appreciate your efforts and openness to suggestions.


But I don’t see it, or nests, or hive, or whatever easily on my feed, or who is in the room, or how many people are in the room, or what they are talking about.
We have to dig deeply to figure out what’s going on. Often times, when I make the effort to go into these rooms, I want nothing to do with the conversations that are happening, and I would’ve loved to have known this before making the effort to do so.


What one thing not currently widely supported do you want to see in as many nostr apps as possible?

Why?

#asknostr


The equivalent ease of visibility, ease of access, and ease of use of Nests (or similar) as X Spaces or Clubhouse.

Regular conversations with fellow Nostriches would be invaluable (to me, at least).


In short, US net liquidity is the amount of Treasuries and (less so) mortgage-backed securities held in the coffers of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury. -- This number tends to directionally correlate with US-based assets, such as micro-, small-, and mid-cap US equities.

M2 is the estimated total amount of money supply, including checking/savings accounts, physical cash, and CDs. -- This number tends to directionally correlate with the movement of global assets, such as bitcoin, gold, and megacap stocks.


People who complain about waiting 30 minutes or so for a #Bitcoin base layer transaction to go through...

Have you ever waited for a new bank ACH or wire transfer to process?

https://m.primal.net/Kfkc.png


I’m not trying to convince you (or anyone) to quit Twitter.

Do what you want. 🍻


Hello.

The US government now pays over $3 billion of interest on its debt per day.

Have a great Thursday.


It’s simple, really.

X is part of the crumbling fiat system.

I am trying to put the majority of my time, efforts, and purchasing power into building things that last, in order to create a better world for myself, my kids, and future generations.

I think that #nostr will play a major role in this better world… so here I am.

From Wall Street to #Bitcoin.

From centralized social media to #nostr. nostr:note12t8sr4exzv74u06852wdtvwj730sjmu7j5ft7t52pfhyex2a5pgq0pcuuf


I had the honor to interview María Corina Machado, the leader of the Venezuelan opposition, about how fiat money was weaponized against the Venezuelan people by the Chávez and Maduro regimes

She says Bitcoin is a "lifeline" and "vital means of resistance" and said that a future democratic Venezuelan government will use Bitcoin to rebuild the national reserves that the Chávistas stole and put Venezuela back on a path to peace and prosperity

I've put out a lot of content in the past few years but I think this is the most important thing I've done -- the implications are vast considering a) Venezuela is one of the world's largest energy exporters with some of the world's largest oil reserves and b) María Corina Machado is not some rogue leader or dictator but a US ally

I hope you can watch 🇻🇪
https://m.primal.net/KfiC.mov


I finally joined because I missed your tweets lol. Glad to be on Nostr


Welcome!


My favorite meal. 😍


On twitter you have mandatory ragebait mode, 100% of the time.

On nostr, we can build zen mode.

What is zen mode to you?

#asknostr


*should be*


I’ve had a couple nephews in college the past few years and this has been my advice to them has more or less been a ripoff of the marshmellow test. Learn to withstand temporary pain for long term gain. 3 podcasts that focus on this, and I often refer to as “the Trinity”

(1) Jocko - constantly harps on short term physical pain for long term gain
(2) Piper - constantly hammers home the message that we just forgo earthly pleasures for a much greater glory
(3) Preston Pysh - really pick the bitcoin podcast of your choice, but teaching financial discipline. “Live like no one else now, so you don’t have to live like everyone else later” (prior to bitcoin, I would recommend Dave Ramsey)
nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l
nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z


The transition has already occurred and the bullish liquidity wave is already underway. Market participants just haven’t realized yet.

Take advantage of this reality.


To balance, suffering sucks for everyone, including Job, David, Paul, and Jesus.

But we are called to trust, worship, and fellowship with God through the suffering… not move away from—or be angry with—Him.


Yes.


AS NOSTR ADOPTION ACCELERATES THOSE WITH LARGE AUDIENCES ON CENTRALIZED PLATFORMS WILL LASH OUT AT US.

THEY WILL ATTEMPT TO PROTECT THEIR PERCEIVED REACH AND INFLUENCE.

THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED. THEY WILL EITHER ADAPT OR BE LEFT BEHIND.


A fantastic Piper sermon. 🤝


“IF BITCOIN IS SUCCESSFUL APPLE WILL BAN THE APPS. WE SHOULD JUST USE APPLE PAY.”

“IF NOSTR IS SUCCESSFUL APPLE WILL BAN THE APPS. WE SHOULD JUST USE X.”

BOTH TAKES SHOW A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF OPEN PROTOCOLS AND OPEN SOURCE CLIENTS.

DO BETTER. BE BETTER. FREE MEN DO NOT ASK PERMISSION.


I appreciate your comments. Thanks Scott!


"Though he slay me, I will hope in him."
- Job 13:15

"The LORD gave, and the LORD has taken away; blessed be the name of the LORD.”
- Job 1:21

SERMON: I would guess that less than 20% of American #Christians agree with (and live out) this #Biblical theology.


There are definitely ongoing pockets of pain.


Yes.
The US services sector continues to do very well, while the (much smaller) manufacturing sector continues to languish.


Accurate.


my college experience in one meme https://image.nostr.build/966d606d3a0828b870efba9a21067b1a0987165757c88f0e068ea2d4623f3c64.jpg


Normalization, not a #recession.

Big difference. https://image.nostr.build/1f70678ce9dc1b3ba75ff83d20424e87e4d96345a4a5895e39f2713ae3257a08.jpg


This is great info. Thanks Daniel.⚡ nostr:note1uq0x5zkcw64mk4sl3mzcqacty5ect6j9fx4ydtkt87jpyp9d3x0q4jqrfv


Clearly, those who prioritize freedom will be early adopters of #Nostr.

Those who don’t will simply come later, en masse.

Very similar to early #Bitcoin adoption.


Normalization, not #recession. nostr:note1xx3zh8slzrvjmlwvwz93n6unk5nkductgheyg8mv0ctjc5wun5zs548r4a


#respect


It depends what you mean by “totally uninformed.”

I still get the info I want to get, and am unencumbered by much nonsense and hype that others consider to be “news.”


They will come.
It’s still (very) early days here on #nostr.


Problems are everywhere.

Be a fixer, not a complainer.


Sell $ Buy ₿

#bitcoin


I think it is just normalization of the yield curve.


Scarcity fuels innovation!!

The increasing totalitarian control structure actually accelerates all
of the building of freedom tech by creating more value for it.

Celebrate that you are just early in the realization.

#Bitcoin
#Nostr


Joe will come when he’s ready.


Delete your platform accounts. No fuss. No spectacle. No grand finale, no great exit. Leave their houses, leave their prisons, leave the golden cages behind. They all benefit from the noise that you make, so do the one thing that they can't censor. Be silent. Leave. And leave the noise behind.
https://image.nostr.build/aa509b35ba1d3223953fc94ef29693d0a35359e6c7b4fd3de9ebf959b040b3f5.jpg


#Bitcoin is "the world's ultimate savings technology.... You don't trade your checking account, right?"

nostr:note1spkyfw5qf35v3djaczvqr4dv6x0jf6m0zhcrl4kmdmdhurkeukdshjtpe7


The most important #macro data... by far.

Global M2 -- the creation and flow of liquidity to the private sector -- is the primary driver of asset prices over time.

And #bitcoin -- as everyone should know by now -- is the Great Absorber of Liquidity.

Understand this and you will do well.

https://m.primal.net/KfQO.png


Yes.


And even more correlated with global M2, which is also increasing again.


Welcome!


Satoshi knew all along… nostr:note1mywa20t00ryz4xva5v49tsge7n2lfl0vtgs3224g96ykz7c077psdlzchr


Meh


Indeed, algorithms are societal mind control.

I feel much less stressed out and angry since shutting down all of my prior social media accounts, other than #nostr.

I don’t miss them at all… not even a little bit.

Although unplugging from them (especially X) felt like breaking off a powerful addiction.

Shout out to nostr:npub1sg6plzptd64u62a878hep2kev88swjh3tw00gjsfl8f237lmu63q0uf63m for the insight while I was still stuck in the matrix.

🧡


Thanks for the solid info!


Wisdom.


I’d buy a well-built bitcoin mining dryer in a heartbeat.


Sadness. 😢


Guy bringing the heat.
#DryerRage 🔥


Old school tech for the win.


Good memories. 🤝


Yup.
And they’re even better the second time through.


Their fear of volatility is your ongoing arbitrage opportunity.

#bitcoin


Yes.
I used to want to leave… now I want to live in it forever.


Crazy!


$58k is the new $10k (circa. 2020).

This too shall pass.

But in the meantime, embrace #58kforever.


I’d love to. But I still haven’t figured out how to work nests. 😂


Welcome!


It definitely helped.


Thanks!


Two.


I used a stapler this morning and it worked great.


Brilliant. 😂

#58kforever nostr:note15dfpae9ex423mtkw4fqkav29v4evmxnwwt5w2uytnwsn762tgpyskurrrr


Embrace #58kforever. nostr:note1de0kvdqpxyr43p8fh85ja396s98pyv3f6zvffvnhl6saahp9d7tqkktpd2


Tragic, if true.


Is this in Hawaii?
They go wild for Spam, which is fascinating.


Very cool. nostr:note1n9seh6530s4x2nzas3z9f6ek4xx9dkrw5d6nn796l5r8ngvvdsxsf2m04d


No worries.
It’s the thought that counts. 🍻


*as planned.


Shout out to Santa Cinquantotto, the patron saint of Bitcoin. 😂 https://image.nostr.build/190d737fed35e985ddd6e40a6963b527e8ea4527e42b157945b582b57c81ad89.jpg


The patron saint of Bitcoin. 😂


$58k forever. Blessed.


Brilliant! 🧡


Eat a steak, pet a puppy, touch some grass, stack sats, and keep it moving 💜🧡💜


Same.
I like to use Audible and have recently restarted listening to The Wheel of Time series by Robert Jordan.

It has become my favorite time of the day.


Big, if true. 🇯🇵 nostr:note15xnm0dmn3ku9rzlukrw9t8k0a49w6yjyqhl48ejjeaevxj293t2styfqnw


Good news!

1. God is real.
2. Good cheese (not processed American cheese) is good for people.

Win-win. 🎉


Great #macro data.

Thanks James! ⚡ nostr:note1paf790m7xs2jc0807hx9jyz505f2t548cq9jcf66uahrvuwrk3vqru5dvy


I’ve learned not to make specific product recommendations. Sorry.


Frankly, dishonest people despise honest money.

#Bitcoin


The credit-based fiat monetary systems can only exist through ongoing expansion and inflation.

They will continue on this trajectory until they ultimately collapse.


Definitely possible.


Monetary speculative arbitrage (especially between government fiat currency and #bitcoin) remains *The Trade* of the decade.


I think he’ll become much more popular with Wall Street once he starts easing again, the details of which I expect him to lay out on Sept 18.


I appreciate the solid #macro info.


BBC's bitcoin coverage exposes a lack of sufficient fact-checking and reveals bias, raising concerns about its accuracy and accountability.

My latest piece in Forbes featuring  BBC nostr:npub1trr5r2nrpsk6xkjk5a7p6pfcryyt6yzsflwjmz6r7uj7lfkjxxtq78hdpu nostr:npub13lkyycj8s3da6fhndtj0wd6s3s2ahmq86s7wrruvzd4tnc66cgfqn4lpsy  #Bitcoin

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/09/04/bbc-bitcoin-coverage-raises-concern-over-its-journalism-and-trust/


Purple pills are flying off the shelves.
nostr:nevent1qqsftuwcg2mkzsglrjq5da93hxa9d4pdwqeqwvw3068rksq22wmkf9qpzdmhxue69uhk7enxvd5xz6tw9ec82c30qgsd0u4v2yw3rhlsflmu8tlxr5022lpk93qdpet5usdav0wytnv762grqsqqqqqpw4gg8p


Hard to say. Depends on the data.


nostr:nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9emkjmn9qyv8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnndehhyapwwdhkx6tpdsnp37zy You were the single reason I finally moved to Nostr. Makes me realize how toxic/distracting Twitter had gotten and how peaceful I am feeling now by focusing only on things that truly matter.
Thank you.


I’m glad to hear it. Welcome!


cc: nostr:npub1kwcatqynqmry9d78a8cpe7d882wu3vmrgcmhvdsayhwqjf7mp25qpqf3xx


Love it. 💪🧡


I will rebuild. 💪


In general, yes.


Similar differences for me.


I was actually just messing around.


Accurate. 😂 nostr:note1my8f5nsd7aqv087fm8ga4hdtyasull9qf8vw9j0v4jh48fdlapeshkmjzk


Y’all are too kind.


Correct, for those who understand it.

But the vast majority of market participants still don’t understand #Bitcoin and still consider it to be a risk asset.


I already did. Now what?


I partly came back to Nostr because of your bold move off X.
Keep sharing. It is much appreciated.


I do what I can. 🤝


Let's try this again...

Current #macro conditions are almost perfect for a non-recessionary dovish Fed pivot in mid-September.

The closest example in recent history is the mid-1990s Fed rate cuts, which didn't lead to--or coincide with--a major US recession.

Rather, the easing conditions helped initiate and support what would later become the famous/infamous dot com bubble of the late-1990s.

A weak (but non-recessionary) economy and central bank #QE is the perfect combination for rising risk assets (and especially, #bitcoin) in the coming quarters.

Just my opinion, of course. Feel free to disagree and side with the Doom and Gloomers... of which there are many... most of whom don't actually manage money... or manage it well. 🙃

Cheers.


Most past examples saw rate cuts being triggered by a major recession.

The current macro conditions are a bit unusual (some weakness and some strength), but are similar in some ways to the mid-1990s, when the Fed also cut rates, but there wasn’t a major market crash. In fact, it helped kick off the late 1990s dot com bubble.


Tragic boating accident.

Lost my bitties. https://image.nostr.build/1aadd20959ef9427d0222b3561f026d5b2df381ef588a9c5848440fa7b2ea1f6.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b363e415aa0ee0471f1009e0206a81e0beb15717bd0e91661d99d8584e6f220a.jpg


I’ve been in this space a long time. The current conditions feel eerily similar to September 2016 and September 2020, for what it’s worth.


I do not believe we are on the cusp of a major recession, as many doom and gloomers believe.


Agreed.


We got the expected verbal policy pivot from Powell in late August at Jackson Hole.

I expect this to be confirmed with an actionable #QE plan at the upcoming FOMC meeting and press conference in mid-September.


Indeed. 🍻😂


I am all in as Dr. Bull since late-August.


People don’t seem to like me or my posts. How do I fix this?


I am of the opinion that macro data and events are coalescing almost perfectly for a beautiful mid-September pivot (back) to #QE.

A new liquidity wave is coming, which is good for risk assets, in general.

And #Bitcoin is the Great Absorber of Liquidity… so you do the math.

Cheers.


Exactly. 🍻


I started buying Bitcoin in 2017.  It didn't DO anything.

I kept buying in 2018, 19, 20 and it still didn't DO anything.

Same in 21, 22 and 23... again, it didn't DO anything.

In 24, largely thanks to Bitcoin, I stepped away from my corporate life and I started to DO (different) things.


An instant classic. 😂


I shouldn’t have made this because now I want bbq 🤣

https://m.primal.net/Kcmp.jpg


Fiat brains: "But Bitcoin has no real utility."

Me: "#Bitcoin is decentralized, secure, neutral, permissionless, energy money."

Fiat brains: "Yeah, but what does it DO?"

Me: "lol"


A gentle reminder that bank "savings" accounts are where your purchasing power goes to die.


Patience, young Padawans.

https://m.primal.net/KCRO.png


Tragically true.


With phones in everyone's pockets, we've eliminated boredom.

But also eliminated contemplation along with it.


New Report: fiat is the preferred tool for 99.67% of cybercrime, measured in annual losses.

What Gary Gensler and others say: "Bitcoin is the preferred tool for ransomware"

What they don't tell you

1. Ransomware ($20 billion losses p.a) is 0.33% of cybercrime ($6 Trillion of losses p.a)
2. The US Treasuries own Money Laundering reports say fiat is by far the preferred vehicle for the online financial crime

Report and data sources 👇

https://batcoinz.com/do-cybercriminals-prefer-fiat-or-bitcoin-the-data-is-clear/


WHICH DEVS ARE BUILDING THIS nostr:note1zew6pdkxv9zcz4xadsgrdaulp4re0xzjknat9v7mg4p0gjtj3wtsymrpqs


Sats are cool and all.

But it would be great if someone could zap me a sandwich.


I just (primarily) watch the liquidity flows.


Sadly, as a child of the eighties, I was a Honey Nut Cheerios kid.

I was almost always shaky and hungry playing sports, but never associated with my diet. 😂


Nostr is about replying. Engaging in conversations. Building your social graph.

There is no algo to spoon feed you. Effort is rewarded.
https://m.primal.net/Kcfz.jpg


You may have to restart the Damus app.


I believe that was the script that fixed my problem with using strike on Damus.


Accurate. 😂


Up only. Except for price. That stays at 58k.

nostr:note1ynj5x36ppjffyer76nsqz7et9rpzxqf786r2zhqwr5hup5etwevqu3yz8y


I believe it was nostr:npub15nrj3vfln4pn04f7m5llhdh6k4vdj3sgfl9mvc0xe8p0lulgup9sumvsd9 who sent me a script with a fix for this problem a few weeks ago.


Stay solvent.


Definitely


Current vibes are quite similar to September 2016 and September 2020.

Just an observation. I don’t make the rules.


Keeps the statist riff raff away.


As always, I think it’s all about liquidity flows. The Powell presser may provide clarity on what’s coming next.


Ty. Followed


Soon.
The September FOMC meeting may provide the dovish catalyst.


PSA: “I generally don’t respond to DMs.”

I’m not trying to be a jerk, I just have way too much on my plate to respond to so many personal requests. https://image.nostr.build/6e2f244175ddda34f75a528634cec1a5a3be1ebf84c957a72a9aef72bf64225a.jpg


Ty. Followed.


It’s hard not to win when you play for #TeamBitcoin. 🏆


Be the content you want to see

nostr:note18zxkkgvtfheph7cfgv3jndzkr6ay6drz93sxgn7vp25pzym0sg0s4qs2lu


Yes.


Thanks Walker.

Shout out to Bitcoin for the Wall Street-crushing returns.


GOOD NEWS!!

I just received another email announcement...

For the third month this year (March, May, and July 2024), my small friends and family hedge fund "has been featured in BarclayHedge's Monthly performance rankings. Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked number 1 in the Multi-Strategy category."

#1 for multi-strategy hedge funds... in the world! (According to BarclayHedge data.)

I can take very little credit for this astonishing accomplishment, of course, as my fund is powered primarily by #bitcoin and bitcoin proxies.

Eventually, Wall Street (like Vailshire) will  embrace a Bitcoin standard... willingly or unwillingly.

https://m.primal.net/KcUI.png


Being an adult means taking responsibility.

Unfortunately, there are very few adults in the United States today.


Good news… As of late-August, Dr. Bullcrab has morphed into Dr. Bull.


Increasingly, yes.


The market is reacting negatively this morning to extremely poor ISM manufacturing data.

Here’s the TLDR:
Demand fell, inventories rose (due to unsold stock), and prices *rose* (due to labor and shipping costs). In essence, this is stagflation (higher prices in a stagnant or slowing economy).

The Fed’s worst nightmare.
https://m.primal.net/KcSH.png


The #NostrOnly movement is growing. We are the signal.
nostr:nevent1qqsdmzmjy8xneukjg0el0xll3yct828kkzrved6kmag8m03umg7e80qpzemhxue69uhhqatjwpkx2un9d3shjtnrdakj7q3qk7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7sxpqqqqqqzmlx775


Love to see it. 🤝


You can. Do it.