Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by TheGuySwann | export

 I love Parker but this argument makes no sense at all. Thats like saying you can censor individual miners, and thus Wyoming is better than Bitcoin because they are actively trying to make a reliable, freedom focused legal system. 
 Man I don’t get that freaked out by spiders most of the time, and I do have a fascination with critters, but these things just freak me out. I used to be an internet technician and I’d run into them all the time, especially when I was working out on the beach. 

I remember a beach house that had tons of little palm trees and similar plants on this like 4-5 foot “side yard” all the way down their house. And there were AT LEAST like 20 of these fucking things splayed across it all. And of course, their main line was connected in the middle of it all.

I had to squat and press myself up against the wall to slide underneath one huge web with one of these things the size of my fucking hand about 6 inches away from my face. I also know that when you startle them they start aggressively shaking/bouncing their web, which would’ve easily had this thing hit me in the face… it was a very delicate situation.😅 
 Hello everyone! This is my first post! So excited to be here!! 


#introductions 
 Welcome Johnny Solo 🫡 
 When everyone is like, “THE PRICE IS LITERALLY 58K FoREVER!”

OH REALLY!? HAVE YOU EVEN LOOKED AT THE PRICE LATELY?

Checkmate 58K gang 😎🖕🏻 https://i.nostr.build/38Yy6jNZcVVuaVKG.jpg  
 WTF happened to simple shit that just works? 
 I wasn't even meaning applications or software, I was meaning truly simple fucking tools and devices that used to be common like washing machines, dryers, cars, etc. A dryer is the dumbest machine in the world, and they've made it into the most pointlessly complicated bullshit that could even be conceptualized. And a basic option literally *doesn't even exist anymore.* 

Its like they outlawed common sense. 
 Yeah i wasn't talking about software, I meant like washing machines and shit. Normal stuff that used to just do the job and shut up about it. 
 Half of the comments think I'm talking about apps, and the other half understand what I'm really talking about because they've had to buy a washing machine post 2015. 

That said, I do also despise the "subscription everything" bullshit. Ran into that today. I'm just about sick of paying for ridiculous subscriptions just to use an app one fucking time. Or having to sign up and remember to cancel when I'm done, which inevitably means they take two months of pay from me before it registers that i forgot to go back and cancel it.

The pirate bay is coming back

nostr:note17p5z83x8ypp3uaup4jdlykphchj780venf4uppeu5vnpq66jmves0ulg09  
 THAT's what I'm talking about. 
 A fucking dryer is LITERALLY just a heating element and a fan, in a bucket that tumbles clothes. Like holy shit how in god's name did they manage to fuck that up? 

Literally have you ever taken the back off of an old dryer? Couldn't be simpler. It's like 4 pieces. 
 Combined with a 20% unrealized gain tax and 70% inflation! 🥳 nostr:note17tkjc5kag0xgcncea48c0cuyq8gac4w03faw9fk2f4fzymgvmhvq8sv0qd 
 Just an idea that hit me while jogging. Am I insane or is any amount of inflation bullshit and un... 
 You aren't insane, and yes, inflation is bullshit and unacceptable. Money should naturally grow in value over time. If it doesn't either society is literally dying, or your money sucks. 
 I use Notion for basically my entire my life (work, docs, calendars, etc). I don’t like the new... 
 There is a Nostr plugin for Obsidian.

I don’t know of a client specifically that would let you organize things like Notion though. I got really annoyed with Notion because I was trapped in their system with how they do their notes specifically. I switched to the .md ecosystem with Logseq, Obsidian, Roam, and a number of other apps and haven’t looked back. I can open all of my notes in any or all of these apps and just copy folders to save or backup things. No complicated exporting or formatting changes, etc. 

That said, integrating that with Nostr is tricky if you don’t want to share literally all of your notes and/or you want to organize your Nostr notes in a file system like way. 

My basic thinking on this would be to just have a note taking app with Nostr integration automatically save and download every note from your Nostr pubkey by default, then you can organize them from there. 

Lots you can do with this idea though. If I wasn’t focused on other things this would be a great one to tackle 
 GM,

When people say "Ai will be more intelligent than humans," this doesn't mean that they will be able to predict what humans like, or know what will be highly valuable or worthless, which memes will go viral, or what the future will actually look like. 

Those problems aren't "intelligence" problems.

It may very well be a complete waste of capital to make "vastly smarter than human" Ai, for the simple reason is that people won't care and won't even be able to judge how good it even is. Think about it, when ChatGPT 5-8 and Claude 5 and Llama 6.2 all get so good that you can't tell the difference, and where you can't tell which output is better than the other, why would you pay 3x as much for the "super intelligence" model than the "gets me the results I want" model?

I increasingly think model intelligence will act more like computer graphics in video games. For about 15 years "better graphics" was literally everything. If you had better graphics you had the better gaming console.  But then one day it just stopped mattering becuase graphics got good enough where the cost to make it better outweighed the fact that people just wanted good games. It simply looked "good enough." 

What if this same thing happens to the "smarter models" in LLMs? 🧐

https://fountain.fm/episode/98UjiXJsa1b2VusbQQur 
 Yes and no, actually. It's less about getting "more intelligent source material," and more about extracting greater amounts of intelligence/knowledge from what it is given. Right now if you feed a math book into an LLM, it wont be able to do math after you fine tune it. It's actually horrifically stupid in the sense of extracting specific knowledge. It will be many layers of algorithmic improvements that begin to enable what some are calling "deep thinking" on a single pieve of material, such that you can train it on a math book and it will actually extract and self-evaluate all of the lessons in the book until it legit actually can DO math because you gave it a math book. And I don't think that's a stretch either, its just a few layers up from what we are doing now.

I actually cover it on the show in a few episodes because I thought this was a fundamental limitation too, but it actually isn't as serious of a limitation as it seems, simply because of how LLMs scale with *compute*. 

In other words, a good LLM can, in fact, train a better one. (there's more to it than that but too long for a nostr note) 

However, you are correct in the sense that there is only so much knowledge (or even correct information) to draw from any particular piece of information or material. And it begs the question of understanding whether the information is correct or not. If its "super intelligent" about shit that's simply wrong, then it is meaningless. 

 
 That's correct, but that's not what I'm referencing with the size or capability of LLMs. 
 This is true 
 That’s good in theory, but doesn’t really apply here. Because the amount of knowledge we have, bs the amount that any one person can understand or take into account has a delta of orders of magnitude.

So in this case the “source” isn’t what an intelligent human can produce, it’s the collection of everything that all intelligent humans have produced.

So LLMs at a large enough scale can account for much more than the average human, and even display “logic” far better than most humans, merely by consequence of accounting for greater pools of knowledge/information.

But you are correct in theory, just not in practice with what I think you are implying.

My evidence is just that state of the art LLMs are already more intellectually reliable and have stronger logic than the avg person. The average person is real dumb honestly. 
 GM

[SYN flag. GM sent] 
 THEY UNDERESTIMATE HOW MUCH WE WANT FREEDOM. 
 They think they are gonna make it hard, and then we are just gonna roll over and give up. 
 They were never part of the fight to begin with 
 Do you know what low-time preference means? 

Like this note for YES. 
Like the comment below for... 
 I feel like this is a trick 😂 
 Last year, I coded many hole punch designs to test P2P DMs on Amethyst. Many somewhat worked but ... 
 Orbit is Tor based which would be good for DMs, I don’t know Citrine. 
 PSA

This place will likely be overwhelmed with trolls, morons, and angry and bitter people one day soon like all the rest. Muting will be a very necessary tool in your toolbox (and it even helps other with your web of trust), don’t forget to use it before getting angry and fighting with people trying to trigger you. 

This is also how you can keep the vibe up indefinitely, curate your graph deliberately. Use the network, don’t let the network use you.

GM 😁 
 Web of trust.

You could auto-mute anyone who is completely outside your web of trust without any one step connection to accounts you know. And the ability to see it in the list so you can expand, versus completely hiding it could also be based on degrees of separation. ie. More than 6 degrees? Hide completely. 5 degrees or less, leave a “show post” option for muted comments.

Leveraging the web of trust is a massively underappreciated tool, imo. 
 For the clients that show web of trust statistics. I think it was on coracle that it has a little circle with a number next to names. I got a message from @LynAlden but noticed the circle had a -3 in it and in less than a second I knew it was an impersonator.

(Negative 3 means no one I know is following this person, and 3 people I know have muted this person)

I’m honestly shocked this isn’t a standard for every client. It’s one of the simplest and lowest barrier ways to deal with spam that I know of, that’s uniquely available in #nostr 
 I think coracle and satlantis are the only clients/tools I know explicitly utilizing this so far. Spam isn’t bad enough for it to be a necessity, but it will be soon, for better or worse. 
 I believe Coracle is the only one I’ve used that has it right next to the username (kinda like the verified check), which I think is the natural place, imo.

I’m sure others use it as well but I don’t know which ones off the top of my head or in what ways they utilize it exactly.

I know Satlantis intends to use this extensively 
 Not that I know of, but I’m hoping it catches on. I’m too busy with other things to fight with making my own Nostr client, but it’ll end up on my list of things to fund if others don’t do it first. 
 It might depend on the client but there is a public mute metric. I don’t know of any that give the option to decide between doing it locally (private) or broadcasting it for your npub so it’s synced on all clients (public) 
 Peter says:

“Unlike OP_CAT, CTV doesn’t appear to raise much risk of unintended consequences... 
 Thanks for the article link. I don’t agree with the concept that we should have some goal to “never add any risk to bitcoin” because there’s no such thing. 

Not having critical primitives for scaling sovereignty is absolutely a risk. Not enabling ways to create more expressive layers is a risk. Adding additional locking types and designs is a risk. Adding introspection is a risk. Everything has risk. 

There are no solutions, there are only trade offs. The day we forget that, we lose our ability to make an honest assessment of anything. Bitcoin is not perfect, it’s simply the best we have. 
 “If there is potential risk, then we need to find a different way.”

There is such thing. 

Again I agree with the sentiment of extreme conservatism, but not to the point of losing touch with reality. Just the very nature of a soft fork, even with the most mundane and neutered change we could muster, is a serious risk. 
 “critical primitives for scaling sovereignty”

Basically anything that allows non-interactive (and private) splitting up of UTXO ownership.

Basically it’s inevitable in the future that every single UTXO is not a single address with a single owner, but that every single UTXO is its own network with many hundreds or thousands of owners.

If we are thinking about design with that in mind, I think we are making a mistake. 
 If we *arent* thinking about design… I suspect that was obvious but autocorrect has been killing me recently, so just in case. 😅 
 We already have the proof of use-case, imo. It’s custodial Lightning. Wallet of Satoshi could offer the exact same service with just a CTV pool in the most naive sense. And then if WOS ever vanished, literally everyone could redeem their coins still.

All we need to prove this viable is demand for people to use custodial wallets and assume they don’t want to be rug pulled.

Also, I’m not trying to make a sense of urgency here, just to explain. I don’t even think there is a rush, I just think CTV is basically just waiting for there to be a clear line in the sand for people to decide about. 
 Yeah for sure, I think we’ve also barely scratched the surface with what we can do regarding the tools we already have and there is certainly a focus on “with this next thing we can do X” instead of working with what we have. It’s easy to get caught up in the “next thing.” 
 But that’s actually one of the reasons I think CTV would be so valuable. I think I could feel like the trade off to ossification after CTV isn’t that bad. Right now the risk of ossification is a net negative, imo. And plenty of people think we need far more than just CTV, while some argue we should ossify now.

I fall in the middle. I don’t hate the idea of ossification because of what I just mentioned, however I know that CTV opens up a lot of possibilities and we could still be figuring out really awesome constructions for things even a decade down the line if we had that primitive. 

In other words, I’d feel like we have a much easier path to the future we want even if we ONLY got CTV before it ossified, and it would be low risk enough that I wouldn’t have to worry about having gone too far either. 
 • never said there was an existential scaling crisis
• my goal isn’t to fix future problems, but current ones. Most bitcoiners are using custodial lightning for #nostr not because they don’t care, but because you can’t do non-interactive push payments over lightning. With CTV you could. That solves an immediate problem for the very people who DO want to be on a bitcoin standard… to be blunt, I honestly don’t care about normies who want centralized services.
• ossification isnt about whether there is c++ code or not. It’s just a point we get to where the barrier to consensus is too great. (example IPv6) We may have literally already reached it if merely judging by the conversations around these things.
• devs aren’t trying to force anything from what I’ve seen. To the contrary they are afraid to make any moves at all. Which is why I felt a specific CTV client for noderunners would be the reasonable path. 
 “Do you really believe that bitcoiners are using custodial nostr apps only because the interactive push payments?”

Yes, absolutely. When we started out over here, lots of people were using non-custodial but trying to explain to people how to receive payments was frustrating, and you couldn’t just post an address and have it work. Even most of the people who were using non-custodial ended up switching over to get a Lightning address, myself included. 

I watched it migrate in real time. The inability to post an “address” and receive a zap was THE reason the overwhelming majority went custodial. 
 Mutiny had other problems mostly because it was a browser based wallet and was always on the struggle bus, Phoenix and Breez (and those I’ve used with Breez SDK) have worked fantastically. Phoenix was better than basically any of the custodial options I used. Would have never switched away or even used anything different had Lightning address not been an issue, and then of course them leaving the US App Store so I can’t recommend them anymore. 
 “That doesn’t make sense to me because it seems custodial lightning was preferred by plebs even *before* nostr existed and even *now* when there is no need for offline receipt. Like in El Salvador or Costa Rica, for everyday retail payments. Last I saw, WOS and Bitcoin Beach / Blink, were preferred before nostr, and probably still are. For your argument to be correct, I would expect to see widespread and growing self-custodial lightning usage in those communities.”

You aren’t listening or I’m not explaining precisely enough:

I didn’t say non-custodial was generally more popular, then it suddenly wasn’t. I said **bitcoiners who wanted to use non-custodial** and *who even tried* for some time, couldn’t do it because of the inability to receive while offline and the inability to have a compatible static address without a web server.

And yes, that was a real thing. Like I said, even I am using custodial for zap receives because of this. 
 WHAT IF... when Github or Google or App Store or whatever public index was hosting a developer's or author's content/files/code/etc decided to remove it due to "regulations" or "reasons"... what if you could still follow the key of the creator and get it directly from them, or from any other host who insisted on keeping it available?

This future is much, much closer than you think
#nostr #pear #bitcoin #lightning

nostr:note1f534vzpzsmzk9mmut3y8rlh64p62av6l48v76qcd3rrg427q8qmqzpmf6a  
 tons of web clients that can be saved to your home screen as a web app. I've done that with a few that I like

ditto.pub is my recent most favorite exploration. 
 All the pieces still haven't been put together into a cohesive experience, but we are very close to it. I don't think people appreciate how fucking fast the world can change when all the right tools fall into place at exactly the right time. 
 Can you give me the TL;DR on Ditto and why its such a good/fast implmentation and how it works? 
 It appears that DeepFakeLabs and its dozens of forks and other projects have all been removed from Github... which ruins a meme I am working on because there are shockingly few alternatives to this.

Does anyone know how to get ahold of the linux installer still? The torrent only has the EXE. 
 WHAT IF... when Github or Google or App Store or whatever public index was hosting a developer's or author's content/files/code/etc decided to remove it due to "regulations" or "reasons"... what if you could still follow the key of the creator and get it directly from them, or from any other host who insisted on keeping it available?

This future is much, much closer than you think
#nostr #pear #bitcoin #lightning

nostr:note1f534vzpzsmzk9mmut3y8rlh64p62av6l48v76qcd3rrg427q8qmqzpmf6a  
 BeCAuSE iT ViOlAtEs PoLiCiES oF AbuSe aNd UnAuThoRiZeD DePiCTiOn oF OtHErs 
 I know, very irresponsible of me 
 I generally disagree but how on earth are you going to control someone else making a meme anyway. If it’s impossible to even police without the person even being involved or knowing that it has even happened, then it’s pretty hard to defend the fact that it’s “a right.” 

Now maybe it’s something we would want to have general ethics to not do. Maybe we would want to hold people to a social standard and idsincentivize this and ridicule or socially punish people for it. That’s fine and I can understand that position even, but that’s not “a right.” Thats very different. 
 I've been overeating lately, and my breasts and buttocks have gotten much bigger. Do you have any... 
 You'd be surprised how quickly your taste/conditioning for it fades if you just cut it out. And you1000% CAN cut sugar. The only reason you "cant" is because you say and believe that you can't, but literally anyone can. I bet you've done vastly more difficult things in life. If you legit want to be healthy and cut sugar there's literally nothing at all stopping you. It's just a choice.

If you don't want to then that's fine too. But don't gaslight yourself and say you "can't," because you can. Just choose to do so, or don't. Then accept whatever that decision is. 

(I probably brought way too much seriousness to this simple and lighthearted post 😆, but I think it's an important issue and all of us lie to ourselves a lot and we dismiss how powerful it is to be genuinely honest with ourselves, and just accept that we are in control and be ok with whatever our decisions are rather than hiding behind "I can't" -- there's a lot of power in that, imo) 
 I think it was in Vhina that there was a skyscraper that they built to look like this stupid shit on the left, with tons of plants and vegetation areas all over it, and people HATED it, it was HORRIBLY infested with mosquitos and tons of other bugs that reproduced on the stagnant water all over the building and it was completely uncontrollable. Tons of people who paid ridiculous sums for the condos were then trying to get rid of them for fractions of the price. Not sure what happened to it afterward but I thought it was really funny how unrealistic our views of “utopia” really are. Theres a reason we don’t live in the woods. 
 I can understand people not abandoning traditional social networks where they’ve made big investments of time & energy to build an audience…

BUT I cannot understand refusing to invest ANY time and energy into a protocol that can’t be shut down. 

It’s like buying a huge, expensive house, filling it with your favorite things, then putting candles in every room, but refusing to add a smoke detector or buy insurance. You’re just begging to lose everything.

Any investment made into a centralized service, ESPECIALLY one that is known for censoring people and shutting down accounts for no reason, should at MINIMUM require an equal investment into a decentralized alternative. 

If everyone who was aware of the problem did this, #Nostr wins. 
 There’s definitely something to that I suspect. I think way too many people put more value than is really there onto the frivolous “follows” on traditional social. As someone with quite a few followers on X myself, I can feel the urge to want to protect it, but in the end I realize how empty 99% of that is, and that the real network is the group of people I can just contact because I know them, or we’ve done a show together, hung out at conferences, or they listen to my work. With or without X, that’s all still there, X merely becomes a glorified “DM directory” in that context.

Whereas I know others who completely judge themselves by the shallowest metric and want to simply be a part of the group (we all do obviously to varying degrees), and their “embracing the values” is less about about actually living them individually, than it is being in a group that talks about them all the time.
I don’t dislike or despise people who do that, mind you, I just think it’s backwards. For most people though, it’s just a lot easier.

If none of that makes sense, here’s an analogy (someone reminded me of this recently):

You know those people who start a hobby and go out and buy every top-of-the-line piece of equipment for it before they even start? 
- Thats the people who want to be in the group on Twitter. 
Then there’s the people who just pick up whatever shit they have lying around the house to start their hobby. - That’s the people on #nostr. 

In my thinking, at least. 
 “Sure I built my house in a really bad hurricane zone, but I’m also building one in a really bad earthquake zone just in case!”

https://media3.giphy.com/media/8x8XzoP8qQa4w/giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91667x120lfoyfroxebt1ohp72o64wgjr6tzbu231t&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g 
 Have you ever read the original Wired magazine from 1993 that revealed the Cypherpunks to the world?

Well now you can listen to it:

https://fountain.fm/episode/FExVWCrHTGsH3WfTasSt 
 This sounds like a perfectly reasonable approach honestly. I think you should be able to commit armed recovery of your assets. An even slightly sane society would support and defend it. nostr:note1rnpm3vm422mzg95yxvha9hllxrr3r8mz4ras25d0g3vwsk2wf2ksw9j8v5 
 Imagine if you had all your savings in this bank and this just happened to you. nostr:note1mnlree7lwltzppt5mh5pqcv93xuzyr8ran4dntdnualzxwfp5x4s3u2h7q 
 Funny how people are sying: «Do you really think you know more about money than the experts? The... 
 “To live by expert opinion is to abandon living altogether.”

– Wendell Barry 
 Gm,

I wonder how many terrorists we've stopped by taking our laptops out of the bag and putting ... 
 Tens of thousands at the very least 
 I’m old enough to remember when a few prominent nostr users were pushing for people to dox them... 
 I have 57 anon accounts and they are all my biggest fans 😂 
 Listen I’m having a hard time getting it setup but I’m working on it. 
 Interesting takes by levels.io on lex fridman in the context of being a diginal nomad:

“Freedo... 
 This is also something that many dont understand about art. But I remember there was a day in film school with one of my favorite professors and we spent the entire class talking about it.

Freedom in creativity leads to indecision and feeling overwhelmed. When you leave yourself too many options, you don't have direction. Which is why its often best to be given a very restrictive prompt, or to just start writing **something,** because as soon as you put down any idea, you've constrained your world, you introduce a problem and an environment, and now you have to find your way out of it.

In other words., restriction and limitation are actually the mother of creativity. 
 I’m sorry, but how does this relate to stockholm syndrome? 
 I don’t think you understand the concept, that’s not what the limitation/creativity dichotomy is about. It’s about direction and focus. If I stub my toe and that inspires me to create a chair leg that you can’t stub your toe on, it isn’t because I got stockholm syndrome with the chair. 
 BOOM 🔥🫡

INTRODUCING the first episode of Guy’s Roundtable 🟠

Join me, Bitcoin Mechanic, @0fda8191, and @Jeff Swann breaking down all of the latest news and events to recap the month in #Bitcoin. 

We’ve seen more bear markets panic and more bull market insanity than any other roundtable you know.😎

What do you get when you mix knowledge, intuition, experience, sarcasm, and the most humble of the humblest? 

Guy’s Roundtable 

YouTube: [https://youtu.be/Wdh2ryDGKW0%5D(https://youtu.be/Wdh2ryDGKW0)

Fountain: [https://fountain.fm/episode/ZPN0IjyENUODoDx585ak%5D(https://fountain.fm/episode/ZPN0IjyENUODoDx585ak) nostr:note10x56n08vh6sfmwx300gylep4lw2luw3nk5h23ayylfyxum9g0mtswe9hh2 
 Did you type this in Fountain? Because I am seeing this in Damus and am responding in my normal notifications. 
Event not found
 The only problem is the ability to export/migrate is entirely in the hands of the third party platform. Rate limits, controlled APIs, bot restrictions and all the rest is why this process is so difficult. But for sure it would be awesome if we could do that. Although you have a hosting problem there as well, but I think there are solutions to that and I know many people (myself included) who are trying to solve that one. 
 I hope to have something very exciting to share soon. Although it may remain to a smaller private group for a while for testing. But I’ve made a hefty investment in hopefully solving some of the most important problems toward this. 🫡✊🏻