Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by The Prestige | export

 To #Bitcoin investors:

Ouch. The past few years have been a wild ride in both traditional financial markets and the #Bitcoin space, particularly for Bitcoin holders. As of this moment, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant volatility, with massive drawdowns from its all-time highs. Yet, despite the fluctuations, by many metrics, Bitcoin is stronger and more widely accepted than ever before.

● The number of unique Bitcoin addresses surged to over 140 million in 2024, from 90 million in 2020.

●Bitcoin’s market cap, while volatile, still grew to over $1 Trillion at its peak, and has maintained the trend also in 2024.

●Proportion of transactions on the Bitcoin network related to institutional investors grew from 10% in 2020 to 40% in 2024 as corporate treasuries, hedge funds, and public companies increasingly added Bitcoin to their balance sheets.

●Layer 2 solutions like the Lightning Network saw an 800% growth in usage, helping to reduce congestion and transaction fees during periods of high activity, which historically plagued the network during bull markets.

●Average daily volume for Bitcoin futures and ETFs rose by 300% as institutional interest in hedging and gaining exposure to Bitcoin without holding the asset directly increased.

●International adoption grew to record levels, with developing economies in Africa and Latin America adopting Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and local currency instability, further legitimizing its use as a global store of value.


In the macroeconomic environment:

Central banks across the world embarked on aggressive monetary tightening, reversing ultra-loose monetary policies that fueled speculative bubbles in risky assets, including Bitcoin, post-2020. As interest rates rose, liquidity shrank, and Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation.

Inflation spikes in key economies, combined with the debasement of fiat currencies, fueled Bitcoin's parabolic run between 2020 and 2021, where its price surged over 400%. However, with inflation peaking and tightening policies setting in, Bitcoin faced headwinds from risk-off sentiments. Bitcoin's narrative as “digital gold” strengthened in response to economic uncertainties, with the U.S. dollar losing purchasing power and geopolitical tensions rising across key markets. Gold prices may have stagnated, but Bitcoin was viewed as a hedge against monetary devaluation.

Countries facing economic instability and capital controls (e.g., Argentina, Lebanon) accelerated #Bitcoin adoption to safeguard personal wealth and facilitate cross-border transactions, driving up demand for the currency.

So, if the #Bitcoin network is more robust today than it was four years ago, why the price consolidation so dramatically from its all-time highs? As the famed investor Benjamin Graham said, “In the short term, the market is a voting machine; in the long term, it’s a weighing machine.” Bitcoin’s wild price swings reflected a mixture of speculation, macroeconomic changes, and shifts in liquidity. There was a lot of "voting" going on in the 2020 boom cycle, driven by retail exuberance, loose monetary policy, and FOMO (fear of missing out). Now, Bitcoin is moving towards less speculative, more foundational adoption with long-term utility.

The fundamentals of #Bitcoin remain strong, with adoption growing, layer 2 scaling solutions improving, and macroeconomic conditions still favoring the need for sound money alternatives. We are building a future where #Bitcoin plays a critical role in financial markets, and over time, we believe this will be recognized.

In the meantime, we keep our heads down, running a more resilient, decentralized financial network. 
 Bitcoin OG's look and act like Zionists in the Matrix🫣- especially Adam 
 The government of Zimbabwe has gazetted a new regulation, announced by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) last month, restricting the amount of USD cash travelers can carry out of the country. Under this regulation, travelers are now allowed to carry a maximum of US$2,000, reduced from the previous limit of US$10,000.

🙂‍↕️😂 
 Here’s where I’m at. 

There’s not a doubt in my mind that god is real. 

Still not really ... 
 Hard to be proven but very easy to feel and experience  
 You think $1 Million is Crazy?

Meet Hal, 
A week after #Bitcoin went live in 2009, predicting $10 Million 🤯
@Vivek4real_


As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that #Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with few cents of compute time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal 
 I don't want to hear any excuses once we hit $1M in the next few years. 

#Bitcoin gave you more than enough time to stack appropriately, and the community provided more than enough free education.
@CarlBMenger 
 Olá, Brasil 
 Ola Ola Jita! 
 Sometimes, you don't have to be a capitalist to invade, spill blood, and kill; you can just be a communist and achieve more or less the same. 
 Hie @dave welcome back  
 I am well, what stuff do you find interesting on Nostr? 
 normalize sharing nostr addresses instead of npubs 
 I wonder if people in this thread including me understand 🤔 

https://x.com/LawrenceLepard/status/1828367826484089188?t=-HgHEqszxi_reiHiF_yzaw&s=19 
 The so-called influencers 😂! If only they could spend more time studying finance than rambling on mics 🤣. Too bad they have people who buy their snake oil products.

https://x.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1820304023171592675?t=unonuQ7uIX5BpG5KtGeyog&s=19 
 Grinding/hustling is way overrated when it comes to financial success. 

Real wealth is made via ... 
 🤣 
 Any thoughts on https://roxom.com/ a new bitcoin-based securities market aimed at using Bitcoin as the base currency for trading. #Bitcoin  
 I was just reading about it. Seems like a very interesting initiative.  Things are getting increasingly better day by day. #Bitcoin  
 NGL @breedlove22 cooked 
#thankgodforbitcoin 

How is it different when Fed does it with trillions of dollars 
 Hie. I just checked, hodlers are okay 👍  
 Have you ever considered what it would be like if goods and services were priced in sats? 
You will be mind-blown!

Sats are extremely inexpensive.
#Bitcoin  
 As we approach third month of choppy sideways. Remember words of a legend.

“Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”
— Warren Buffett

#Bitcoin  
 It's not what we don't know that hurts us so badly, it's what we know for sure with certainty that just isn't so 
 My 10 year price target for bitcoin is $8,008,135 
 Such a bear 🐻 
 Learn from Twitch. Copy it. 
nostr:nevent1qqsdwkq575zchz52pg7548vkeff5z9czqtseeha37asc5d3k0jj0wrc... 
 Lol people on X don't know Gigi is chilled here on Nostr😀 
 KoЯn- Chaos Lives In Everything! 
 the US is officially a police state. congrats to the law and order camp. 
 Ask us, we knew. it's only eating it's kids now 
 I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin scaling tech and privacy tech.

Fee spikes are incentives to build m... 
 Yours systematic engineer 
 Coinbase officially integrates #Bitcoin    Lightning Network.

This was supposed to be a headline in 2021 
 Is there another #Bitcoin chart we don't know about😭 
 Happy Halving 2024
02:11 GMT+2
Sat,April 20 
 Leaving Zambia

Couldn't verify my strike account. 

it's until when you try to buy Bitcoin in Zimbabwe when you start to feel the chains of fiat system. 

You can have $5000USD and fail to buy Bitcoin

#Bitcoin @strike @jackmallers 
 Zimbabwe/Population
16.32 million (2022)

Reminder, all these people still can't #Bitcoin, govt banned and closed all exchanges. 

Freedom delayed is freedom denied

#Bitcoin
 
 Hello @jackmallers, I purchased a Zambian SIM card and added money to my mobile account. However, when I open my Strike account and click on "Buy Bitcoin," it prompts me to add cash in order to buy Bitcoin, with no option to use mobile money. What should I do? 
 #ICYMI: Unbelievable!
pains and delusions of #Shitcoining

https://twitter.com/vydamo_/status/1773491625957924883?t=0HdKZjhwH55_lxY2IuEWTg&s=19

It is with a heavy heart I announce the sale of my long term ape, Salazar. Most of my early followers know me as this ape. My kids know me as this ape. I met my wife when I WAS this ape and had my first kid when I was still proudly wore this ape. By extension, it is part of me.

I travelled around the world with this ape in my pocket. We went to the most luxurious hotels, the craziest night clubs and the most serene beaches. We had it all. Unfortunately, what blur is doing to apes is frankly unacceptable. Since the creation of Blur, the ape floor price has tumbled from 85e down to 12e.

Two weeks ago myself and around 15 other high ranking ape members gathered at the recent International Ape Workshop in Miami, and on behalf of the community we wrote and delivered a notarised letter begging Pacman to stop this nonsense at once.

We outlined three key terms the apes were demanding of Pacman:

1.) Effective immediately, blur should be shut down and all NFT collections affected should be refunded a part of their floor price at the time blur was created

2.) A written apology to @yugalabs and the community

3.) Sell all remilia assets held by ANY members of the blur team and publicly denounce @CharlotteFang77 

As of today, March 28, 2024, Pacman has refused to acknowledge our letter. I have no choice but to sell my ape and retrieve some form of financial value before it trends to zero. Thankyou to everyone in the ape family who has been sending me messages over these last few days. I love you all. 

I hope one day we meet on the other side, until then, goodbye.

 
 No you are not buying a fraction of #Bitcoin, you are buying Sats. 

Few  
 #Bitcoin is the true test of all the detrimental traits" and "negative qualities" in an individual. Don't work on them, #Bitcoin will reveal them. 
 Alright, after watching 5+ hours of Dune part one and two, I’m going to need someone to explain... 
 Going to watch it now! 
My last show was "Better call Saul"

🔫Bang 🔫Bang = 🗣️Hooooo 
 Ladies and gentlemen, hodling 💁🏽‍♂️!

The game No Coiners call luck 
 What a birthday present🫣 
 🥳🎺 
 Kindly confirm if the mobile money deposit system is available in Zambia, @Strike? I have noticed that it is not tagged with the word "live" like Kenya.

This is in reference to the picture you shared on X (previously known as Twitter)
 
 So you are planning to trade, sell top and buy bottom for an asset that has a supply shock

😳 
 Someone out there is still talking about:

"#After every 90days, #Bitcoin has a 10+ pull back"

😳 
 Why do people see something that works and think "it can't work forever"? 
 The "disposition effect"
That's how most people in finance leave money on the table. They will rather keep losers than keep the winner.

funny how the brain works😂 
 hi guys 

#introductions 
 Greetings! 
11:45am here 
 looking at every opportunity cost, #Bitcoin is still better? 
 Shhh, he is still obsessing over OPENAI🤫. He will get bored very soon though  
 Never FOMO into anything. 
Never feel left out in any opportunity to grow your money. Be always on guard, be patient, wait for another perfect opportunity like #Bitcoin. 

I

 
 $1,061,823,000

#Bitcoin  
 Shocking, I used a few calculations to arrive at the above number. Mostly based on historical data, I employed extremely conservative numbers and disregarded Spot ETFs and any other unforeseen bullish factors that might come into play.


https://youtu.be/36TODIBYjjI?si=-g_gLivx6KVayXG7 
 retail FOMO is here!!!! 
 Being a Bitcoiner is a form of humanitarian, you are freeing slaves across the globe 🌎 
 Dictators don't allow their citizens to have any sort inflation proof mechanism. Bitcoin fixes that 
 I don't have any knowledge about human trafficking  
 FYI, looks like nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe was hacked ... 
 🙏🏽 
 No matter where you are, #Bitcoin is the taste of free market you can ever come close to. Something your dictator will never let you access 
 Smart money is currently shifting towards the hardest form of money, while other funds are being gambled in "shitcoins." 

The question remains whether the liquidity of money, in relation to the global search for real value and practical use cases, will ultimately favor these Shity coins this time?

This is a gamble that I am not willing to take.

#Bitcoin

 
 In 2008, as Zimbabwean bearer cheques were losing value, I didn't save in USD in order to hedge against it (have more Zim dollars in USD terms, then trade back USD to Zim dollars). At that time, USD was my exit strategy.

#Bitcoin 
 They will always try to explain how the price moved. 

wake up man, finite supply over infinite demand. it's that simple

#Bitcoin 
 Today marks my 4 year journey into #Bitcoin, orange 💊 by @Prestonpysh.
Price was 6K

Those were the days👇🏽

https://youtu.be/hOqEFHHCafI?si=hikSPYoCJg6OQK1- 
 Imagine a world where you exchange $62000 of literal 💩 for $100 Mill of hard money 🫨

insane!!!
#Bitcoin 
 Using Primal is dope! 
 Thanks Jack, Strike has done a lot to give access to Bitcoin for a lot of people in Africa.  
 It would have been at least fun if they even knew what was happening. 😂

Literal Strike logo on dictatorship🥳