@8f56b62c
Had a very good day after 10am. Desk was down huge on the number (short a lot of volatility), but even without the rally volatility began getting destroyed. Around 10:30 CST I bought 2k upside SPX calls in a risk reversal (sell put, bot call) hedged up, gamma scalped the deltas all the way up in the afternoon.
Was a good day, event days are always winners for market makers
Wild day for markets, rally nearly unexplainable
This morning 1hr before the open, NFP (job) data released: showed far more than expected jobs added this past month with the unemployment rate more or less remaining unchanged. Jobs added means strong labor market, which means the Fed has room to keep rates higher for longer.
Market nukes on the data, then completely reverses throughout the trading session and then some, finishing some +100pts off the morning lows.
Fun Friday
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/190/271/255/995/817/original/f0bf2941062d57c8.png
@3aa33ca7
Highly recommend Simple & Sinister, book is $22 on Amazon.
Found this guy from Joe Rogan, and I did the routine for a few months daily with good results. I still do the routine, but only a couple of times a week now.
Best part: the 'routine' is basically two exercises: kettlebell swings and the Turkish Get-Up. It's a short book, very instructional, and contains good warm-ups for the routine as well. Routine takes ~20 minutes once you memorize the steps
https://www.amazon.com/Kettlebell-Simple-Sinister-Revised-Updated/dp/0989892433/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=8-3
@3aa33ca7
Highly recommend Simple & Sinister, book is $22 on Amazon.
Found this guy from Joe Rogan, and I did the routine for a few months daily with good results. I still do the routine, but only a couple of times a week now.
Best part: the 'routine' is basically two exercises: kettlebell swings and the Turkish Get-Up. It's a short book, very instructional, and contains good warm-ups for the routine as well. Routine takes ~20 minutes once you memorize the steps
https://www.amazon.com/Kettlebell-Simple-Sinister-Revised-Updated/dp/0989892433/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=8-3
Long end of the Treasury curve continues to pressure equities and nearly all other large markets. 30yr bond yield at highs, fast approaching 5%
S&P feels like it wants to hit 4250, just continued pressure on the upside even after quarterly expiration and rebalance.
Too many folks are talking about 4200 for it to actually come to fruition IMO, barring any truly pessimistic news or economic data in the short term
Stay safe out there, have fun today
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/171/285/364/866/711/original/ba8b3b8836019420.jpeg
On the one hand I like to follow the Latin saying, “De mortuis nil nisi bonum.” Loosely translates to: “Never speak ill of the dead.”
On the other hand, these corrupt politicians, on BOTH sides, like Feinstein have stolen taxpayer dollars for decades through various funding and taxation mechanisms to better themselves. Feinstein recently sold two of her vacation homes and her estate is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. On a salary of a few hundred thousand a year.
Fuck these people.
Genuinely curious about @394b5c0e ‘s take here, would love some feedback. Maybe I’m an asshole, but I don’t mourn these politician’s passing. Thieves of the taxpayer, in my mind.
So the company had onsite flu shots yesterday, and it seems like many signed up to take it.
So far this morning I’ve run into 4 people who look like shit and say they aren’t feeling well, and 3 other people have called in sick and aren’t coming in.
Although it is Friday, so it could be that some are faking sick, but it’s rare that people call in sick given we can’t make money at home.
Either way… I thought the flu shot prevented the flu!
@efa2e20e
I DO believe that Adam is spot-on with his info from the Former New York Banker:
Economies don’t care about WHO is in the population, they care about the population size itself. More laborers equates to more economic output. More economic output (GDP) improves outlook and thereby sentiment (equity and bond market prices go up)
Bankers and 401k holders alike are bettered by this system, though it comes at great costs (cost not bear by the bankers)
So population maximizing is the goal
@d46cf433
2s/10s has been inverted now since July 3rd 2022, so the 'recession' indicator has been on for quite some time.
This isn't to say a recession isn't here or oncoming, but that it's ample time to fade this signal. Markets are very forward-looking, so the recession signal 2s/10s (which is 18 months leading on average), is old news at this point. The imminent reversion though has been quite delayed, longest we've ever been inverted was ~2yrs, so it's due to correct.
Long and strong, finally some relief on this bag
2yr vs 10yr yield steepened some 8bps, floating away from deeply negative territory. This inversion occurs most often from the front end yields getting jacked, which typically leads a recession as money becomes expensive in the short terms (as many corps operate with leverage in short-dated borrowing).
It’s been decades since this spread has been this negative for this long, but it’s a crowded trade. Still like it, still holding the bag
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/133/992/118/097/547/original/441d84ad98410df4.jpeg
Treasury market getting smoked today, specifically the longer durations
For context 10yr now reaching 2007 highs (in yield) as the bond market rout continues. This isn't to suggest an equity market crash will follow, but rather to highlight how large this bond selloff has become
The moves in yield these past few weeks has been driving real yield higher, that is the stated yield minus inflation
I've been expecting the curve to steepen, but certainly not driven by the long end rates climbing...
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/127/428/567/290/417/original/b0bffc7e00c81ba8.png
Nothing like portfolio building/research on a Saturday afternoon. Red is the S&P, green is this portfolio.
The purpose of this portfolio is to dampen draw-downs in extreme market conditions while still benefiting from highly correlated broad US equity market exposure. This effect can be seen in 2008 - 2009.
Components:
XLV (Health Care): 25%
XLP (Consumer Staples): 16.67%
XLK (Technology): 25%
TLT (20yr Treasury): 16.67%
GLD (Gold): 16.66%
This isn't investment advice.
Continued...
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@0af78396@f43a2aa2
RTX is traded on the NYSE, but yeah it's gotten crushed. Unsure why, probably some news. I used to have a nice allocation to some defensive names back in 2022, but haven't touched them since late 2022. Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon mainly.
@0af78396@f43a2aa2
Given this is the retirement account, I'm thinking more along the 10+ yr horizon.
When I say Asia I mainly mean South Korea, Indonesia, India, and Japan. Currently own ETF exposure to these specifically, but I will likely shift it to a more broad ETF as INDA and EWJ have been solid performers in the past year.
@f43a2aa2
I'd imagine that's a good allocation. I've been pretty poorly allocated abroad, ~5% currently, but I'm going to adjust to about 10% - 15% or so. Mostly Asia though, I think they're the most worthwhile economies outside of the US.
@93fabaf1@e7cebe76
Agree with Mark. B&M Gates Foundation buying wouldn't move the needle, like you said.
BUD's market cap is far larger than the Foundation's investment so that won't move the needle, but sometimes big-name investors can help turn a company around (either by minority share or just public image). In this case, they don't have a minority share, and I doubt anyone is celebrating their foundation buying BUD.
More on that strategy here though: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/activist-investor.asp
Just recently organized my timeline into a few different lists based on content type. Memes, news, analysis, misc, etc., and it really helps me digest content on NAS.
I follow a lot of people, and I noticed I was missing some content from certain accounts.
How am I just now noticing the list functionality? This is great.
@d46cf433
>It's only "problematic" when you start CAUSING those events to support your* investments.
Totally agree, which unfortunately was all too common in the emerging market credit space for a long time (probably still is)
@ee76a5c1@882313ff
More or less correct yeah, and I have no idea what Operation Sandman is. It sounds like bologna.
Foreign nations have zero incentive to dump Treasury holdings, particularly as most other sovereign credit looks like shit in comparison. Higher inflation elsewhere, more credit/default risk, etc.
Treasuries owned by anyone are sold in the open market, so natural buyers would also emerge. The likelihood they all dump? Zero. No evidence for it
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