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Notes by Futurist Jim Carroll | export

 Two things seem true.

1. There will never be a trial, of any sort.

2. There won't be a legal system after it consumes itself preparing for trials that will never happen, because it's failed efforts to try to lead to trial will lead to its very destruction in January 2025. 
 Things that haven't happened.

1. Flickr didn't join the Fediverse - whatever happened to them

2. Threads hasn't done like it promised either

What's with that? 
 Daily Inspiration: "Problems can't be solved if nobody has discovered that they exist!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Everything is beta, it seems.

If you use popular software programs, no doubt you've heard of the phrase, and have often sought access to the newest version in order to try the latest, greatest features. You might have friends who are using a beta or 'developer' version of an iPhone software update. Others might be using a 'beta' version of a software program in order to try out the latest features. Anyone who uses Tesla's (so-called) Full Self-Driving software knows that has never been anything but a 'beta' version.  'Beta' software makes the world go round. 

The concept of 'beta' versions goes beyond software to the very idea of trying to do new things - the essence of innovation. Organizations that are working hard to align to a new and different future, are in 'beta mode' all the time. They are trying new ideas, implementing new concepts, and chasing new methodologies. Inevitably, things will go wrong - and accepting this fact, AND learning from them, is what will provide for real success.

In effect, the idea of communicating about flaws, problems, and mistakes is critical to future success, and so there are valuable lessons here for corporate efforts and innovation. When you are chasing new ideas, developing new products, and implementing new ways of doing things, you are operating out on the 'bleeding edge.' You are doing a 'beta.' You must be prepared for things to go wrong, for ideas to go off the rails, and for concepts to be malleable and risky. it's the only way to get ahead. but at the same time, you need to ensure that you have an honest and open culture of sharing, in which people are willing to communicate what they've discovered that isn't quite right - and with the opportunity to suggest how to fix the wrongs.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/10/daily-inspiration-innovation-communications-problems-cant-be-solved-if-nobody-has-discovered-that-they-exist/

https://media.futurist.info/media_attachments/files/111/187/644/063/848/151/original/1cb8d7bd1da2d120.jpg 
 Daily Inspiration: "It's now how the circumstance of surprise impacts you. It's the fact that you were surprised in the first place!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

"I didn't see that coming!" "Wow, that came right out of left field!" "That caught me off guard!" "I wasn't prepared for that!" "I was taken aback by what happened!" "I was blindsided by it!"

When aligning to tomorrow, phrases such as these are indicative of perhaps the worst kind of failure, and yet often, can be the most prevalent.

Why are people blindsided by what to so many of us are obvious future trends? A few years back, I ran into my good friend Jim Harris at an airport; he's the author of a book by that very name. We operate in small circles in this weird industry of innovation-oriented keynote speakers, and between Jim and I, we now share 60 years of on-stage keynotes! That's a LOT of stage time. 

The book's blurb features the wonderful key line: "Solve problems before they happen." It then notes that it will "present a series of breakthrough techniques to help business leaders identify trends earlier and more accurately predict their impact."  Published 21 years ago, the many examples used are likely out of date, but the guidance is timeless.

Blindsided. Isn't avoiding that issue the whole goal of all innovation and future-oriented experts everywhere? We are always busy trying to tell you what comes next, and what to do about it, We share with you the obvious trends that are shaping and changing our world - note the use of the word 'obvious.' We give you practical insight into the trends that matter and battle-tested action plans that will guide you through. And yet, we continue to watch countless executives and countless numbers of organizations continue to sleepwalk their way into the future. 

"Whoah! I didn't see that coming!" doesn't just indicate a lack of insight; it's indicative of the worst type of leadership failure.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/10/daily-inspiration-insight-the-future-its-now-how-the-circumstance-of-surprise-impacts-you-its-the-fact-that-you-were-surprised-in-the-first-place/

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 Daily inspiration: "Are you ready for the inconceivable to become conceivable?" - Futurist Jim Carroll

It's difficult to comprehend the speed of change when things are exponentiating; it's a challenge to grasp the impact of the era of acceleration when we are accelerating.

Exponential change is all around us. We are at the edge of the era of being able to grow human body parts for replacement in our bodies. Genomic medicine and pharmacogenetics take us to a world in which we can treat many forms of disease and illness before they occur. Molecular cancer diagnostics will help us identify many cancers at an early stage before they have a chance to progress. Batteries are the future of everything as carbon becomes a sunset industry. Autonomy is taking hold with self-driving trucks, tractors and combines. Robotics is accelerating leading to massive rates of change in factories. Digital twin technology is letting us create entire virtual replicas that can guide us through surgeries, construction, and logistics. AI is leading to an absolute explosion in new knowledge, discoveries, and skills. New materials science is leading to the absolute possibility of new materials that are lighter than air. Old industries are disappearing and new ones are emerging.

All of this is happening because of the speed of exponential change. 

What's your plan to realign to speed?

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/10/daily-inspiration-innovation-discovery-never-give-up-just-give-more/

https://media.futurist.info/media_attachments/files/111/176/152/531/018/984/original/72e54c924894da45.jpg 
 Daily Inspiration: "Never give up. Just give more." - Futurist Jim Carroll

It's easy to give up.

It's harder to commit.

But it's the only way to get ahead.

I really like to take the time to wrap my head around an industry in which I will be delivering a talk. With that in mind, I've been reading the book The Alchemy of Air: A Jewish Genius, a Doomed Tycoon, and the Scientific Discovery That Fed the World but Fueled the Rise of Hitler, by Thomas Hager. It's over on Amazon.

It's the fascinating story of the discovery of the process for the manufacturing of ammonia - and while it seems like it might be a kind of dull topic, it's the type of scientific historical tome that I absolutely love to read. Books like these tell the story of innovation, creativity, and determination that no traditional business leadership book can. Rather than a series of parables, you've got a realistic overview of just what it takes to invent a new business - in this case, a scientific process that is excruciatingly complex and extremely difficult to master.

Reading the book won't feed directly into the content of my talk, but it will feed into the narrative I deliver when I meet with the leadership team of a multi-billion chemicals company in this industry in just a few weeks. Their industry came about as the result of a big, bold bet, but also the dogged determination that comes with the complex task of the process of scientific discovery. 

In essence, it's the story of two individuals, who in pursuit of their goal, never gave up. They just gave more.

That's a valuable lesson in and of itself right there. 

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/10/daily-inspiration-innovation-discovery-never-give-up-just-give-more/

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 Daily Inspiration: "With a little bit of courage and a whole lot of imagination, anything is possible." - Timidus the Mouse

I did a little AI-generated movie short, narrated by SNOOP DOGG

Everyone has always told me I should write a kid's book. So I decided to try to learn if I could do a kid's movie using an AI.

I learned I can - it's the story of Timidus, the Mouse.

How did I do it? I took a blog post I wrote sometime back, used an AI to turn it into a kid's story, and then turned it into an animated short, using an AI. I added a voiceover by Snoop Dog, using an AI tool, and added a somewhat hip-hoppy music track created by an AI.

My little movie is but 45 seconds long. I could make it longer and do the entire story, but I won't pursue it further than I did, because I learned what I needed to know. I'll move on with my journey of continuous exploration.

What did I learn through the process? A lot of new skills - and, as Timidus discovered in the story as written by an AI, with a little bit of courage and a whole lot of imagination, anything is possible. 

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/10/daily-inspiration-ai-creativity-with-a-little-bit-of-courage-and-a-whole-lot-of-imagination-anything-is-possible/

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 The QTS podcast.

And yes, I was a roadie for KISS for two concerts.

----

"Jim explains that the future isn’t easy. In manufacturing today a machinist has to be able to do trigonometry in their head. farming requires new skills in future tech, and the need to decouple our supply chain has never been greater to limit geopolitical risk. Jim is an international speaker, prolific writer, and a man of ideas and experience. You won’t want to miss our conversation, on our future. 

16:35 What is techno skepticism 

22:17 The two angles of Skepticism 
24:37 10% of the audience hates my message 

25:54 Does different demographics respond differently to your message? 

28:12 Europe likes the status quo except in the case of … 

33:54 Transformation has to come from the top 

37:34 Precision farming without the Sun 

50:00 There are two types of future farmer 

54:32 The right to repair trend 

59:05 “ friendsharing” – decoupling geo political risk 

1:04:52 Future of sophisticated manufacturing 

1:07:55 The future isn’t easy – understand the trends 

1:12:07 Roadie for KISS 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn7SkA0hsIc 
 Daily Inspiration: "Certain trends are inevitable.  Your inability to accept them should not be." - Futurist Jim Carroll

The automotive industry strike and the role that electric vehicles are playing within is puzzling, but not surprising.

This much is true - as I often characterize on stage, the industry is in the midst of a massive transformation as cars become 'big batteries with wheels.' And workers are scrambling to ensure they have a role, which is certainly fair.

What is interesting, though, is how politicized the issue has quickly become, with some suggesting that all that has to happen is to scrap the move to EVs altogether - as if that were an actual possibility. (It's not. Horse buggy makers would like to have a word.) With that, it's no surprise the auto companies push back on this mindset.

The idea of 'stopping' the move to electric vehicles might play well for politics, but as with all things, politics is not reality.

When it comes to the future and trends, certain things are certain. Oil and carbon are over as we transition energy to a world of batteries, renewables, electric vehicles, and smart grids. Insurance is moving from looking back for risk analysis to underwriting risk in real time. A huge portion of the skilled workforce will never return to the office. Construction is moving to a world in which more of the assembly is done off-site. Healthcare is moving to a model in which we no longer just fix people after they are sick, but one that through preventative genomic and diagnostic medicine, we have a good sense of what they might become sick with - and act in advance.

And most automobiles in the future will be ... big batteries on wheels, with computers inside. It's inevitable. Certain things are certain.

https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-the-future-and-change-certain-trends-are-inevitable-your-inability-to-accept-them-should-not-be/

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 Daily Inspiration: "Move fast and fix things" - Futurist Jim Carroll

(Unity apologizes)

Steve Ballmer, the VP of Microsoft who was the driving force next to Bill Gates in the early rapid rise of the organization, understood the critical importance of "developers." Most modern-day software and tech company CEOs do not - in particular, folks like Elon Musk.

The president of gaming engine Unity Create, Marc Whitten, certainly does. His recent sincere apology and response to a self-imposed developer crisis give a textbook example of how to deal with an egregious mistake once your customers let you know - in no harsh terms - that you were completely wrong with your actions.

It offers an example that when you break things, you've got to move fast to fix things because we live in a world in which egregious mistakes can suddenly spiral out of control. We now live in a future in which you no longer fully own your future - your customers or external business partners do.

Developers matter. So does respect.

https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-customer-support-and-crisis-management-move-fast-and-fix-things/

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 I could have been headlining a major conference in Abu Dhabi today.

But I turned down the opportunity - even though it would have involved a *substantial* fee.

And in fact, I've turned down about 15 speaking opportunities through these next two weeks.

Why? My 30-year-old son gets married in 10 days. It seems like he was just a baby. We are here helping where we can with any last-minute preparation; doing the things that need to be done, and ensuring we are fully engaged in all the joy the next two weeks will bring.

Success is not always what you think it is. It is not defined by reaching the pinnacle opportunities of your career. It is defined in making the *right choices* at the *right time.*

Throughout my career, I've turned down many big opportunities for even bigger - and more important opportunities - all involving my family.  I am a richer person for doing so.

Success is doing the things that are the most important - not the things that you think are the most successful.

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 nostr:npub1wcucqa0yyyqts24dakwhh73psrnf6hegjtdh2g4ysn4g3w0lsz6s6svgyk this is amazing 
 Daily Inspiration: "Never stop chasing creativity!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

I'm a bit of a weather nerd.

And so when my son and his bride-to-be sent out their wedding invitation some time ago, they told everyone that I would make available a short series of long-range weather forecasts. People could choose to sign up for my updates, and about half the guests have done so. 

I've been busy studying the long-range weather maps, watching the insight of Henry and others, and basically, weather-geeking out. The day of the wedding, October 7, is just about the time when the weather gets 'interesting' in the Muskokas, Canada, where the wedding will be held in just about 10 days' time, as the clash of the seasons begins in full force.

I dove right into the project, and so for my second weather update, I decided to use the full effect of my green screen broadcast studio. 

My mindset? Never stop learning! Always keep exploring!

https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-innovation-and-learning-never-stop-chasing-creativity/

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 My 30 year old son gets married in 12 days.

The wedding invitation told everyone I would share weather updates leading up to the event. As a futurist, I'm a bit of a weather nerd.

And on the weekend, I became an actual weather man. Watch what I put together!

Complete. Weather. Nerd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E65DF0TZCvU&feature=youtu.be

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 Any tech people please!! I’m on deadline 😅🙏🏻 
 @a1aa26bb Taylor, it's all in this image.

The post that goes with it. https://hubris.jimcarroll.com

These traits are common to most tech CEOs; we can go back in time and identify all the common reasons for failure to these traits. He did all these things at Twitter.

(I've been online since 1982, wrote 34 books about the Internet in the 90's, have consulted widely to all kinds of tech companies etc etc; been around the block a few times)

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 What do people use for #bittorrent on #Mac? I am currently using Vuze, but it's so super spammy. ... 
 @726b5433

What do you recommend for a password manager these days in light of the LastPass continued debacle? Asking for a charitable group I'm involved with that just got a hack.... 
 Daily Inspiration: "Stop trying to be everything to everyone. Just be the best thing to those who matter." - Futurist Jim Carroll

No one likes a trailblazer. Except, perhaps, other trailblazers.

Did you catch Apple's Mother Nature video, which was tucked away in the middle of its new iPhone broadcast the other day? It was an attempt by the organization to lay out, in a new and different way, its success - or lack thereof - in meeting its sustainability objectives. As an organization that actually chases sustainability rather than chasing lip service, it sought to try to tell its story in a unique and different fashion. After all, in this world of collapsed attention spans and shock journalism, it's pretty likely that few people would actually read a long report about sustainability - so why not try something different?

The result? People either loved it - or loathed it.

There is a lot to learn from the reactions that people had - and what Apple has learned as a result. It's an innovation story.

Read on.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-innovation-risk-stop-trying-to-be-everything-to-everyone-just-be-the-best-thing-to-those-who-matter/

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 The future goes to 11!

"**Fresh from playing Glastonbury in 2009, the courgette-crotch-stuffing bass player and botanist is back! With the sequel to the classic rockumentary in the works and a Barbie-hating single. Ask him anything in the comments"**

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 Daily Inspiration: "A strategy based on hype isn't a strategy. It's a tombstone for cash"' - Futurist Jim Carroll

You have a decision to make.

Today is the day you should draw a line in the sand. Yesterday - September 13, 2023 - should be the day that you stopped the madness.

Because at this very moment, you are making the decision that yesterday was the last day in which you will tolerate an AI strategy based on hype; on chasing technology for the purpose of chasing technology; of trying to mold and shape your business to fit the AI juggernaut rather than twisting and forming AI to solve problems in your business.

Because we are clearly at the peak of overinflated expectations when it comes to AI.

Hear me out. 

Read my post.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-ai-and-the-hypecycle-a-strategy-based-on-hype-isnt-a-strategy-its-a-tombstone-for-cash/

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 Daily Inspiration: "If you think you are having a bad day, try being a horse introduced into a new herd!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Meet Dawn, and my daughter-in-law, Kim.

Dawn has been having a hard time, to say the least.
And I am pleased to know that things might finally be settling down.

The backstory? I spend a lot of my time on stage and in my leadership events speaking to the issues of change and change management. Talking about such things as how individuals should work harder to align themselves to a faster-moving future, adapt to rapidly changing circumstances, and be more accepting of the whirling world of change around them. Stuff like that.

As humans, we have it pretty easy when compared to what a horse has to go through.

I have learned far more about animal herd behavior than I thought I ever would! The things we don't know about in our lives and then discover become an overall part of our fascinating voyage of knowledge!

And through the process, I learned a little bit more about change management over and above what I preached about from the stage. Bringing a new horse into a herd is, perhaps, akin to introducing a teenager to a new high school. 

Read the whole post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-change-management-if-you-think-you-are-having-a-bad-day-try-being-a-horse-introduced-into-a-new-herd/

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 "Before you are good at something, you're bad at it. That's OK. That's how it's supposed to work!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Stop chasing perfection. Chase action.

My 10 Great Words Web page and the related document were the subject of a lot of visits yesterday; for some reason, it has met the search engine gods! That's always fine, because you see a traffic spike and wonder - what brought this on? https://10greatwords.jimcarroll.com

Every time this happens, I go back and re-read what I wrote, which was around 20 years ago. My mindset has stood the test of time - it's actually a great document to get into an innovative and future-oriented state of mind.  Take a look!

One of the words I use is Try, as in:

--

Try. How many of your people have lost their ability to adapt to changing circumstances because they’ve lost their confidence?
Developing new skills and career capabilities is critical, given the rapid change occurring in every profession.
And yet, too many people have managed to convince themselves that they can’t adapt; they can’t change; they can’t master the new realities that surround them.
They’ve lost their self-confidence, and they desperately need it back.
Solve this problem fast.

---

I really like the word Try, because it implies action, moving forward, chasing goals, pursuing knowledge, and finding solutions. 

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-the-misinformation-age-have-you-ever-noticed-how-some-people-can-easily-explain-why-an-outcome-that-they-did-not-expect-was-inevitable-all-along/

https://media.futurist.info/media_attachments/files/111/029/060/760/104/020/original/271005b564c0fcdd.jpg 
 Daily Inspiration: "Have you ever noticed how some people can easily explain why an outcome that they did not expect was inevitable all along?" - Futurist Jim Carroll

After things happen, everyone's an expert, because they express their knowledge of the inevitability of it all! And yet, in fact, people seem to be experts at everything with actual expertise in nothing.

We can probably blame this state of affairs on the media, and in particular, today's modern-day talk show format. In the rush to get ratings, they've engineered an online style that involves bombast, aggression, and anger. I guess to survive in this world, you have to be prepared to toss your principles out the door. I withdrew from participating in media interviews, particularly of the talk show format, after a bizarre appearance on CNBC with Maria Baritoromo in 2006. In a show about innovation, the producers behind the scenes seemed to be eager to get everyone active in yelling at each other. I mean, the show was about innovation! Bizarre.

And yet, this mindset has also become very common in the corporate setting. Many organizations suffer from 'hindsight bias' - that is the tendency for people to suggest, after some major event or market shift has occurred, that they knew all along that it would happen. The problem with this is that it leads to a culture where people are unwilling to learn from mistakes.

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2023/09/daily-inspiration-the-misinformation-age-have-you-ever-noticed-how-some-people-can-easily-explain-why-an-outcome-that-they-did-not-expect-was-inevitable-all-along/

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Event not found
 This is weird. It seems to be running - I can access it through Elk and Ivory after moving to 4.2.0. 

But trying to get through via the Web interface gives me the pissed-off elephant.

I might need to roll back to my server level backup and try again.

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 @0b0d360a What the *heck* is he aiming at? I mean, tall concrete poles? But the screen shot is hilarious!