I think George means well and obviously attracts a certain personality type.
Thanks to @Jeff Booth and @LynAlden, he is slowly coming around to #Bitcoin.
Just finished my quarterly (4Q 2024) memo for clients of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund.
Note that I am limited by the regulators as to what I can share publicly (especially regarding unaudited results/returns), so I am sharing what I can in this edited copy for you.
It's a little confusing, as many numbers are XX'd for privacy.
Hopefully you will still find it useful.
Cheers!
https://conta.cc/4eRZbTS
A brief update on...
- US Net Liquidity (top blue line): Still chopping sideways since April 2022.
OPINION #1: US based assets (think micro/small/mid-cap stocks) are likely to continue to chop sideways until US net liquidity momentum moves decidedly higher.
- Global M2 monetary supply (approximate, lower blue line): This has decisively broken higher over the past several months and is unlikely to contract meaningfully in the coming 12 months or so.
OPINION #2: This upside breakout of global M2 bodes well for the price action of global assets like #bitcoin, #gold, and US megacap technology stocks.
Just my opinions, of course.
https://m.primal.net/LLKv.png
I don't know who needs to hear this today, but most Economists--especially the famous ones--have mid-to-terrible investment track records.
Choose carefully to whom you listen.
Engineers, definitely.
Having an emotion-free, iterative, systematic investment process is a huge advantage over the vast majority of emotional market participants.
September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior)
September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k)
The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again.
#macro
Onwards.
🐂
Yup.
Inflationary money is abominable and leads to two classes of Americans: the Owner class and the Renter class.
The Renter class has experienced a slowly and steadily worsening of their quality of life over the past 50 years or so.
Meanwhile, the Owner (stocks, real estate, bitcoin, etc.) class have enjoyed a stable or steadily improving quality of life over the same time period.
#Bitcoin will eventually fix this.
Fellow physicians and providers:
Over time, the only way for you and your practice to provide higher quality services at ever-cheaper prices for your patients is to put your practice on a #Bitcoin standard.
The longer you wait to do this, the further you and your practice/business will fall behind.
The best part about living on a #Bitcoin standard is the eventual realization that you’re not steadily growing poorer year after year.
Finally.
Your hard work actually matters and your efforts are multiplied over time.
This is the new way to grow.
#Bitcoin is Better Money for a Better World.
These Mastermind discussions with @preston, @joecarlasare, and @HODL are some of my favorite conversations of the year.
Just four dudes sitting around, talking about life, the economy, #Bitcoin, Blackrock, scams, price targets... and whatever else Preston brings up.
Strong recommend that you pour yourself a beverage, put the discussion on, and enjoy the conversation with us.
Also, tune in to find out why I think @HODL will lose his #bitcoin bet and have to eat a pumpkin pie this Thanksgiving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kgpeH9MOg0
I must say that this conversation with @ShaneHazel and @mikehobart of Bitcoin Veterans was even more fun and wide-ranging than I had expected!
I even told my famous (infamous?) "Digging for Gold" story from my Nursing Assistant days while living in Jerusalem... Apologies to those with a weak stomach. 🤢 😂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR3Cf56dwys
For any degens who insist on trading cyclical assets, here is a quick primer to help improve your longer-term performance:
- In cyclical BULL markets, Buy The Dips (only).
- In cyclical BEAR markets, Short (Sell) The Rips (only).
- In cyclical CRAB markets, Buy The Dips and Sell The Rips.
The challenging part for many noobs is determining what phase of the cycle (BULL, BEAR, or CRAB) we are in, and how your asset of choice historically performs in such a phase.
The majority of traders go broke because they don't understand such things and/or have little or no risk management system in place.
--------
** A much better option for 99% of the people reading this is to simply stack sats and chill. 😎 You will do better over the long-run than 99% of the people (including fellow Bitcoiners) who actively trade and/or attempt to time the markets. **
Regarding the US dollar:
I continue to believe it will be *generally* weaker over the coming 12 months or so... with the $DXY heading sub-100.
However, the recent surge lower has moved the dollar to OVERSOLD levels, and an impressive POSITIVE DIVERGENCE has occurred (see chart below... straight red line and straight green line).
This suggests, to me, that we will see a multi-day or multi-week bounce higher in the US dollar--the strength of which may impede any short-term rallies in risk assets or even #bitcoin.
After the expected bounce higher, hopefully before the end of October 2024, I think that the next #bitcoin bull market (in fiat terms) will begin in earnest.
Just my two sats. Feel free to disregard.
#macro
https://m.primal.net/LHVw.png
Absolutely.
Almost every major system is broken, as the underlying (fiat) money is broken.
#Bitcoin changes incentives and will fix #healthcare... and the #military... and the #education system... etc.
Happy October!!
About a year ago, on another social media app, and after many hours of research, I posted the following:
October 2024
October 2025
October 2026
Someone write these down.
-------
It is now October 2024, and nothing in my mind (or the data I observe) has changed.
Onwards. 🐂
#Bitcoin
MARK YOUR CALENDARS!!
As a simple pleb and civilian, I am greatly honored by the invitation to join the @Bitcoin Veterans team as a guest for their YouTube livestream on Tuesday, October 1st, at 7pm ET!
Livestreams are way more fun when the live chat is busy… So plan on hopping on and adding your questions and comments. 🎉
🍻
#Nostr-only is simple: I want to quit spending my time, energy, and purchasing power on the centrally-controlled fiat system and focus on building the decentralized and secure future... currently via the #nostr and #Bitcoin networks.
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