Oddbean new post about login | logout September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior) September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k) The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again. #macro Onwards. 🐂
You still trust government reports? Wow, now that takes faith.
Haha all skewed numbers
No. But they are still directionally helpful and--importantly--the majority of market participants believe the "official" data.
That’s a good point, doesn’t matter if it’s fake data if the market believes it…but only if you’re measuring economic health through the lens of stock markets which is folly.
Working class people have seen 25-30% inflation in the last four years and have not experienced similar salary increases, life has become more difficult. If the economy is doing so well shouldn't people be more financially well of, because they certainly aren't. The truth of how the economy is doing is often hidden by macro statistics.
Yup. Inflationary money is abominable and leads to two classes of Americans: the Owner class and the Renter class. The Renter class has experienced a slowly and steadily worsening of their quality of life over the past 50 years or so. Meanwhile, the Owner (stocks, real estate, bitcoin, etc.) class have enjoyed a stable or steadily improving quality of life over the same time period. #Bitcoin will eventually fix this.
I absolutely agree with your statement but disagree with you saying there is no recession. What is considered a recession to you? For me, if most people are doing worse off financially then I consider that a recession, even if a small percentage are having huge gains, skewing aggregate data.
What happens if we haven’t cured inflation? Employment is high, real inflation is 7%+ and central banks are cutting rates to make debt more affordable in order to protect asset prices (cascading concerns). That scenario doesn’t sound good but seems like it is playing out. Might not be a “recession” but isn’t that what is happening?
There will be no inflation. We've (China mostly but globally) over invested in manufacturing and hr is becoming more productive with AI. Asset prices might moon if fed prints (for whatever reason) but I think energy will go lower once tensions cool. Especially if Trump. I'm happy to wait till after election to start gambling in stonx again.
“A woman who seeks to remain fashionable despite financial resources” are wrong again. LMFAO 😂 That’s hilarious. 😆 Now tell them how eating the rich works.
How can you take the government’s unemployment rate numbers seriously? Their recent track record is terrible and they have a clear incentive to doctor the stats.
same thoughts with many of the Bitcoin macro guys discussions. Using govt's provably cooked metrics to say anything just seems pointless. Don't even mention CPI. how do you reconcile these ideas? genuinely asking @Dr. Jeff
Do you think the new round of money printing will trigger a recession? ETA?
As a fellow 🐻 I thought they would be worse, but I think this delays fed action which is maybe worse. I will review Beige Book but I suspect there could be demand pulled forward due to strike and Christmas. Real test will be earnings and guidance, but I had said that for last set of earnings. Q2 earnings had a lot of bearish guidance. Is Nike and Apple the problem or is the market weaker? And what's the craic with 1/3 of national debt maturing Q1 2025? Does it matter or has Janet Yallen done something good for once? Personally I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin whatever happens, but idk about stocks.
It is telling that fed spokespeople are badmouthing the labor market after these figures. They want and probably have to continue to inflate!
these are always BS and get revised
Biggest monthly increase of government workers on record. https://m.primal.net/LLdZ.jpg
In three months these numbers will be downgraded by a LOT. No-one with any sense takes these numbers seriously. That's not to say a recession is coming, I'm not a doomer, but they keep changing these numbers & it's always negatively months after the fact when people don't care.
