Yes. I'm way more concerned about this spiraling than Ukraine. The cultural and religious caché of the Israel-Palestine conflict creates serious destabilizing cleavages. The fact that Iran likely funded, trained and provided weapons for this. The fact Russia is an Iranian ally. The fact Erdogan in Turkey is Hamas-sympathetic. The fact that Israel was about to consummate a deal for normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, which probably is over now. The fact Hezbollah just fired rockets at Israeli settlements from Lebanon. The ways this conflict stressed the global security situation is ... deeply concerning. 

 I think this is has a higher risk of spiraling out of control than Ukraine *now*. When Russia first Ukraine that couldn’t be judged. There was an expectation that Russia would roll over Ukraine. Then there was the very real possibility Russia would have kept moving west into NATO countries and/or China became emboldened to invade Taiwan. While China invading Taiwan is still a possibility, it’s definitely less likely than it would have been if Russia just rolled right though Ukraine. If Russia had continued/continues into NATO countries or China invaded/invades Taiwan then the likelihood of WWIII is very very high. 

 *first invaded Ukraine 

 The way how Ukraine war is going opened this pandora box and allowed for this, wait more while prosperous peace keepers weighing is it too aggressive to protect yourself with weapon 

 Mike is right. It’s much worse now. 

 How? And why? Honest query as this was a statement without a perspective.

[811171] 

 It's the biggest attack in decades Hamas has managed to organize... 
It's big. But I don't think there's anything more to destabilize there...  

 The thing about the progression of history and the increased interconnectedness and complexity of the world is ... it's always different!

But I'll give more thoughts on why this is horrifying for global stability tomorrow. 

 I’ve seen the course of events for the past 30+ years, so it’s a feeling based on observation. This is a highly coordinated attack that has likely been supported by outside actors, and has the potential expand into a much wider conflict, especially after the Israeli government’s response. Many countries could become involved in this. This is a conflict that has spanned multiple generations, and if you’re familiar with the Strauss–Howe generational theory, it’s in line with the idea that we are now in the Crisis Stage, or “Fourth Turning.” 

 I’m not one to be swayed by grand macro-historical theories; I see them as akin to spotting random shapes in the clouds. My skepticism comes from observing the gritty details of present-day geopolitics and power dynamics. When an established order like the American-led rules-based system is in decline and there’s no clear, widely accepted successor on the horizon, it tends to usher in a period of volatility, not tranquility. Some might daydream about a more peaceful world without the supposed ‘antagonist’ of the current order, but the nuances of international relations suggest otherwise. Bottom line: a world in flux is rarely a peaceful one. 

 Deliberate killings of a bunch of civilians is dramatically escalatory. This also comes as part of a broader campaign by Iran to establish supremacy in the region. 

 This has always been the case. Nothing new apart from the fact that Israel was taken by surprise which is a dramatic mistake from their intelligence services and mainstream media loves this. Civilians are killed on both sides frequently but that never makes the news. 

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 You are underestimating the impact our improved communications will have with something as horrific as war.

We’ve seen & heard of these conflicts for decades, but never in real time like this. 

 I gave this a few moments today, in the states, the Europeans (now known as Americans) eased tensions with the tribal nations by giving monetary and ownership rights to certain resources but the US fought many wars with the native people before peace