I’m not one to be swayed by grand macro-historical theories; I see them as akin to spotting random shapes in the clouds. My skepticism comes from observing the gritty details of present-day geopolitics and power dynamics. When an established order like the American-led rules-based system is in decline and there’s no clear, widely accepted successor on the horizon, it tends to usher in a period of volatility, not tranquility. Some might daydream about a more peaceful world without the supposed ‘antagonist’ of the current order, but the nuances of international relations suggest otherwise. Bottom line: a world in flux is rarely a peaceful one.