Yes. I'm way more concerned about this spiraling than Ukraine. The cultural and religious caché of the Israel-Palestine conflict creates serious destabilizing cleavages. The fact that Iran likely funded, trained and provided weapons for this. The fact Russia is an Iranian ally. The fact Erdogan in Turkey is Hamas-sympathetic. The fact that Israel was about to consummate a deal for normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, which probably is over now. The fact Hezbollah just fired rockets at Israeli settlements from Lebanon. The ways this conflict stressed the global security situation is ... deeply concerning.
I think this is has a higher risk of spiraling out of control than Ukraine *now*. When Russia first Ukraine that couldn’t be judged. There was an expectation that Russia would roll over Ukraine. Then there was the very real possibility Russia would have kept moving west into NATO countries and/or China became emboldened to invade Taiwan. While China invading Taiwan is still a possibility, it’s definitely less likely than it would have been if Russia just rolled right though Ukraine. If Russia had continued/continues into NATO countries or China invaded/invades Taiwan then the likelihood of WWIII is very very high.
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