I’ve seen the course of events for the past 30+ years, so it’s a feeling based on observation. This is a highly coordinated attack that has likely been supported by outside actors, and has the potential expand into a much wider conflict, especially after the Israeli government’s response. Many countries could become involved in this. This is a conflict that has spanned multiple generations, and if you’re familiar with the Strauss–Howe generational theory, it’s in line with the idea that we are now in the Crisis Stage, or “Fourth Turning.”
I’m not one to be swayed by grand macro-historical theories; I see them as akin to spotting random shapes in the clouds. My skepticism comes from observing the gritty details of present-day geopolitics and power dynamics. When an established order like the American-led rules-based system is in decline and there’s no clear, widely accepted successor on the horizon, it tends to usher in a period of volatility, not tranquility. Some might daydream about a more peaceful world without the supposed ‘antagonist’ of the current order, but the nuances of international relations suggest otherwise. Bottom line: a world in flux is rarely a peaceful one.
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