I think this is has a higher risk of spiraling out of control than Ukraine *now*. When Russia first Ukraine that couldn’t be judged. There was an expectation that Russia would roll over Ukraine. Then there was the very real possibility Russia would have kept moving west into NATO countries and/or China became emboldened to invade Taiwan. While China invading Taiwan is still a possibility, it’s definitely less likely than it would have been if Russia just rolled right though Ukraine. If Russia had continued/continues into NATO countries or China invaded/invades Taiwan then the likelihood of WWIII is very very high.