I had never looked at how futures traders estimated the probabilities of FED interest rate targets far in the future. This is basically a prediction market.
CME shows data from traders which suggests greater than 50% chance that target rates end up below 3% at Dec 10, 2025 meeting.
I have never followed this stuff closely. Anyone have more color to add on how to think about this?
https://image.nostr.build/6b068535c712f6489745b2f7145999130d28dd053f271e0fef3b3a4e6c9dc266.png
I just got punk'd.
I need to tell you about it.
I know, I know. Plenty of warning signs. I should've known better. I should know the history of music better.
But I was also intrigued. I knew *of* Jim Morrison as the lead singer of The Doors. But I didn't know the specifics of his career and life. I thought I recalled hearing there was a big drugs/alcohol angle to his story. (hint: there was)
I'd never heard him on a podcast before. So when I saw Rick Rubin was hosting him on his podcast Tetragrammaton I tapped "play".
And then I walked around tidying up my workspace listening intently on my Airpods. Morrison talked about growing up in the south and losing his accent, the new film projects he's working on, etc.
After 29 minutes of this I was intrigued to look up Jim Morrison's wikipedia entry only to find out that he died in 1971.
I listened to a half-hour podcast of Rick Rubin interviewing a dead guy. https://image.nostr.build/719abfa7eed7a3de306bcccb0b3914a47bf2f5466b696639818ff16b960267a1.jpg
@Alex Gleason 🐍 I originally wrote and tried to share the above note using Ditto, but right after I clicked “post” I got some error and I think it referenced the image I had uploaded. I think it mentioned something about the timing. I had composed a few hours ago and uploaded the image at that time and then I did some other text modifications right before finalizing the post.
Anyway, it looked like it kinda hung for a long time in the browser. I didn’t see any prompts requesting me to sign an event so I think I already had the correct permissions setup.
Eventually I tried viewing my profile with other clients and they didn’t see the note. I finally decided to refresh the browser (after copy-buffering what I wrote) assuming it was a failed post.
I ended up using the Damus MacOS app to finish publishing. Maybe I ran across an untested use-case? Just reporting a potential bug in case it’s helpful
wow, @Ditto is so good. well done, @Alex Gleason 🐍
I hadn’t tried it until this morning and it is buttery smooth.
(H/t to @melvincarvalho for the rec!)
true. it affects you. and if you have ideas for how to make an impact and make it better please do so. but if you pay attention and it just stresses you out, is it really helping anything?
quick look appears to be focused on self-hosting? magic of github is that it’s where everyone comes together to build software. does this have a global hub nature?
Oh yeah, I don’t expect GitHub to give up their user base. But if there’s a credible alternative hub-like way to gather around projects then people can choose to us an alternative system when it suits them. Especially useful in cases where they’re working on riskier projects. I don’t know microsoft/github’s history of censoring repositories, but I’d rather bitcoin’s source code not be dependent on their choices.
love the new push notifs from @damus! go team!
small bug, when i send someone a zap someone from Primal i get a Damus push notif that i received the zap
I shouldn’t be so shocked, but when a high-quality, venture-backable idea/team comes along in bitcoin there is no at-scale capital provider to serve them today. Some good angels/small-seed-funds, but no one around who can write a series A check.
idk if I can name names yet… I’ll ask the founder
I agree there’s not that many good equity investments yet which is, I think to your point, why there aren’t any funds that can do larger checks. It’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing. Maybe the market grows up and today’s seed funds have winners which let them grow AUM and write bigger checks, but it’s so extremely inefficient right now my eyes are bleeding. :P
Early stage equity investment from an illiquid captive-capital/blind-pool can’t typically allocate more than 20% to liquid assets at the manager’s discretion. So the actual hurdle would be alternative illiquid equity investments.
Maybe these LPs should just be all-in bitcoin, but if they’ve already decided to invest in a fund of illiquid technology ventures the hurdle is the alternatives from that asset class.
As an independent with your own portfolio you have more latitude so everything gets priced against bitcoin.
Yeah, I guess I’m talking more about existing funds. There are plenty of funds with a broader mandate than bitcoin which are not crypto funds, but might invest across technology… e.g., maybe generalists, but with a fin-tech focus. They should be salivating on this opportunity.
I agree that to raise a new btc-focused equity fund at substantial scale today would generally be a difficult proposition. Any LP would need to be educated enough about bitcoin and own enough already, but see value in building things which accelerate adoption of bitcoin compared to just owning more of the underlying asset. It’s not quite philanthropy, but it takes a certain disposition.
I believe there are individual opportunities that can beat a bitcoin hurdle (and I invest in them myself as a small angel), but I think this get much harder to do when the volatility gets dampened with a portfolio.
I guess if you want to solve for at-scale capital to invest in bitcoin companies that are breaking out there are probably two paths:
1) build deal-by-deal SPV syndicates for the rare occasions that these opportunities present themselves
2) build a more generalist technology venture fund with a close eye toward bitcoin when these opportunities do emerge
idk, wdyt?
yup, it’s gonna happen, just a matter of timing. I guess the higher the bitcoin price goes the lower the return hurdle rate will be relative to equity investments and the more prominent/top-of-mind the utility of the asset will be. Maybe we cross-over soon? 🤞
anyway, nostr on! we are so early
your math checks, but the experience on nostr feels about the same as the first 4 years of the web. while the web was technically invented in 1989 we didn’t even get Mosaic’s (Netscape) initial release until 1993. It was very slow going at the start.
Damus/Primal feel like Netscape quality browsers to me, but public messaging is not as underserved as web browsing was back then so history doesn’t exactly repeat.
I think there’s something yet undiscovered that will feel really different and will demonstrate the power of nostr.
I suspect it involves zaps and algorithms.
I think there is a reasonable framing of nostr as the glue to unify all public messages. I would get more value from nostr if I could read more of what I want with it even if those who create such messages are not yet on nostr natively.
In social media “zen mode” I can read diverse ideas from people that help me learn about the world
a service that runs a transparent algorithm that I can choose
it’s open source and transparent how it works. it optimizes for my goals
I find corporate algorithms too mind-controling
I find no algorithms too tedious
I don’t think it requires an ignorant approach. Could be open-source/transparent/auditable what the software is going. I use tons of open source software even though I haven’t personally read all the code. You have to figure out which layers you find most important to understand based on where you think problems might arise.
I think it’s similar to other layers of computing technology. Everything is a new layer of abstraction.
I’d prefer a future where each layer is transparent to inspect even if you don’t choose to regularly audit everything.
Codegen/AI are enabling a peak at this future, but it’s not fully here yet. Instead of downloading or building an app imagine you can just will it into existence to do the one workflow you need right now (and importantly it’s not built in a general way to do anything else so no extra features/learning/cruft).
I think it will jump in personalization which is a form of quality for any given person. And yes, it will also jump in quantity.
I don’t think people realize how much effort we invest today to understand how to use software for our specific purposes since it’s usually built in a very generalized way.
Notes by dk | export