I had never looked at how futures traders estimated the probabilities of FED interest rate targets far in the future. This is basically a prediction market.

CME shows data from traders which suggests greater than 50% chance that target rates end up below 3% at Dec 10, 2025 meeting.

I have never followed this stuff closely. Anyone have more color to add on how to think about this?

https://image.nostr.build/6b068535c712f6489745b2f7145999130d28dd053f271e0fef3b3a4e6c9dc266.png 

 best is look n follow data INTEREST RATE SWAPS - futures options - which is hugely manipulated to paint a picture of yield curve control in bond markets. 
#finstr 

 got a link? 

 🔎 SOFR 

 🙏 

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr