Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by ponymontana | export

 90K kind of day 
 90k confirmed 
 Believing Anarchism is a serious way to structure society the most juvenile world view.  
 is this an "attack on bitcoin" !? 
 At $220 I told people bitcoin was going to 100k. 

You would think those same people would listen... 
 for some reason theres a giga bias on expecting things changes. Everyone is expecting a projection of what happened in the recent past projected indefinitly in the future. We call them poors. 
 "I know shitcoins are shit but I gamble on them cause bullmarket to make money and buy more bitcoin" is the new shitcoiner.

In this cicle there arent real shitcoiners and wont come new real shitcoiners like past cicle because of a new distributed awareness.
Everyone knows shitcoins are scams. For everyone I clearly dont intend literally everyone, but a great majority of all economic actors, even the normie that are external to bitcoin and crypto.
The only one credible narrative about shitcoins this cicle is that they are shit.

So if you, like a lot of "bitcoiners", feel smart and have decided to shitcoin just for gains, my prevision is that you will loose bitcoin, even during the bullmarket, in pretty every timeframe.
And you are not so smart in 2024, you are average retarded, the new shitcoiner.
Youa are the one that smart fiat people will dump on this cicle.

Just my 2 cents speculation. 
 Nostr is old school social media. Post a crafted 1500-word article, no one cares. Post some sceni... 
 maybe some of "social media sins" are just "how human behave exposed in digital age". 
 in the end read the post. Theres to be considered that "a long form post as a photo" is terrible ux, most people on phone cant practically read it.

Regarding the post I think that the tolerance is the best path for ourselves. I was wrong many times in my life, and I gained much from consider other perspective and see if there were better way to go. So, if they left other people alone, intolerance is a problem of the intolerants, they will be damaged by their choices.
When they "dont left people alone" starts real problems to be aware of... 
 agree, but I distinguish people who are irremediably lost and act maliciously to me, and people that are just confused and vaguely statists. 
From these last people, I try to get the best I can, maybe there are other fields where we can enrich each others. 
Lot of my friends and families are normies vaguely-statists, but they just elaborate the world they know with their competences, they are not bad people. And most of the time, I just feel bad for them and their "incapacity", so far from hate them.

When I was younger I was a lot of things and thinked a lot of things that now I consider bullshits. But I was just ignorant and confused, most people are. 
 adding my interaction, didnt read the long post😁 
 I might get a job just to quit😂🤣
nostr:nevent1qqs2s58tsc0a6zme2z24hhrdfm2459qvuveksjet4szu0... 
 I'm a too young class pleb, still need to manage at least a part time in the fiat mining 😓 
 89.7 today will be the day 🤙
nostr:nevent1qqsv6c6q0kk7phhjn73uywfh8qc0tj4mylqn8rn8urgjr8zxz8tx... 
 90k is a great resistance, I know many retarded normies that have bought at 70k and have set their sell at 90k under a crypto/stocks guru advice.  
 Stack envy - When it feels like everyone’s stack is bigger than yours 😆 
 I think we all feel like this, but is like what feels young girls on social media. Someone have large stacks, but statistically major part of us are plebs in the same stack-range. 
And we are so early, so even with what we feel is a little stack, in the right time, we will be rewarded more than we expect if we dont mess up things along the way. 
 yes and no, we are the next so envyed satoshis millionaires, lets just stack and dont mess up 😁 
 custodial lightning providers and ecash mints are the credit card payment and banks of the bitcoi... 
 100%, but maybe this could be a transition cycle, with the real a big "price surprise" to happen in the next. Ecash still early, more time is required to have average non-bitcoiners economical actors to adopt these tech. It will happens when products based on ecash and bitcoin-based-stack will be evidently better than the fiat counterpart (faster, cooler, no-taxation, no spying, stable) and we need more time to have that. 
 maybe you are right, I expect to be surprised by things as always 😅 
 not an inversal progression? (every cycle, less returns?) 
At this point we would expect something strictly inferior to 140k.  
 * less than 140k as lower bound, less than 500k as upperbound 
 I strongly agree with you, but I expect that the acceleration phase will be triggered next cycle; I feel something still need his time to spread and stick in the social actors. 
I also think that the past cycle was weak in terms of price appreciation because of a peak-of-shitcoinery and various external factors, so this cycle expect a sligthly better performance over the past. 
My nostradamus 2 cents, I expect to be surprised as always happens... 
 I think the difference from bitcoin and most of other people is that bitcoiners are lone wolfs that study indipendently the world and THEN decide to self identify in a social-group as "bitcoiners".
Bitcoiners are a pack of wolves, fascists/nazis/commies/climate-activists are a flock of sheep.

Maybe, with more prople joining, even bitcoiners will gradually become more like a flock of sheep for his major part. 
 If we want Nostr to win we need to up our game, the competition is not static. 
 this sound as an attack on nostr 😑 
 🙄🙄🙄 
 Finished Dune 2. 
My conclusion: overrated. Meh. 
 what you disliked?? 
 yeah, mostly agree, but I enjoyed it a lot. 
 BTC/GOLD graphic makes look this cycle patterns more similar to the previous cycle. 
It seems we are something like at "the 15k$" of the last cycle.
Just a bit of astrology and numerology today, enjoy😁
https://image.nostr.build/c56eff0174e9c44c0153f46e21b32d9d590dcb1318c37473b22844db5235fde0.jpg https://image.nostr.build/f47bf3b3040c4f5fadd92743dc80d8df7819615278cb98fab5af7dc4f5dd030f.jpg 
 mmm maybe more likely at "the 20k$" of past cycle... 
 on coingecko is possible to see the bitcoin price  and chart express in gold price 
 literally every shitcoin trying to cargo-culting reproduce bitcoin 
 Hello 80K gang; Price going up is a good reminder to always secure your #Bitcoin as if it was 10... 
 wow even the "👉" emoji, your marketing is becoming top-class  
 "so are you friends now!???"


*government*              *bitcoiners*

     👦🏾   "YES!"                    👦 "NO!"               
     /|\                                   /|\
       |                                      |
      /\                                   /\ 
 I would ask chatgpt to do the meme next time 
 We are at the part of the cycle where Bitcoin goes up, up, up and up, then you think it will go d... 
 and so you repost it and I see it and I think its still true so I reshare it 
 In last weeks it was like I was missing something, I woke now from a long sleep of consciousness.

I like bitcoin, thats ok. 

But MOST IMPORTANT, I'm what I am today only because I fucking hate fiat with every cell of my body. Every state employer needs to suck my balls, my children will be free from that shit.

I'm in war, I'm a soldier for human freedom, GFY. 
 fiat people are amxious to ask me "how is going my bitcoin investment" or "when I'll sell" they will receive all the same answer: fucking all gone in the boat accident. 
 my mum still crying, nevermind. 
 now people start saying orange coin good but they dont know... they will say they wouldnt buy the fake money of retarded in the next bear market in 2 years, at 110k$... dont forget, they are bad people and being attached to fiat system make/reveal them as bad people... dont hang out too much with people that consider your opinion only in the bull market, they want your money, they want your soul... 
 .... 
 In my opinion dune 1 has not been so great, dune 2 has been amazing 
 #zapathon can someone zap me a sat to test if this wallet works??? 
 works 100% thanks💜 
 dont rememberwhat typed to add a user to a new group it was useradd groupadd I need sudo OH NOOO I KICKED OUT ROOT FROM EVERY GROUP EXCEPT PRINT GOOOOGLEEE HOW TO FUCK WORKS THIS 80s SHIIITTT 
 lets grab this olive juice to put aboundantly on the beef😋

https://m.primal.net/Lxef.jpg
 
 Another important point.

nostr:nevent1qqsdl3ktkq2s983le786xeylgh2xltz4nuj3kp2tadpcmnhw7eqmducpzd... 
 def something needs to be addressed client side, showing a huge warning when something has been edited. Still, I think that the best simple way to edit something on nostr should be a replace-this-note-with-that like amethyst does, nothing more complex than that. 
 mum I'm not crazy see the news I ssaid orange coin is good see other real people loves it 
 mmm why not. Bitcoin and gold can economically coexist, even if the rise of bitcoin will steadly eat pretty all the monetary premium over the gold as hard-money. But will take decades to have eventually bitcoin mcap at something like 10x gold mcap. 
 traders putting their dick in and out the bottle NGMI  
 Hi, I have a problem with reedeming cashu tokens from chats. I think that was a problem with the mint being unresponsive, but the ux in 0xchat wasnt great. It started an "infinite loading" without telling me whats was wrong. Also, I wasnt able to copy the raw cashu token in my clipboard, so to verify what was the problem. 
 at 75k can confirm this is an accurate representation of me 
 The key to Nostr meme lord success 👇👇 nostr:note1zdfxqh8yzvankvj6yaqqme9varw8qmwnc2gy4n03au... 
 repost it till you make it 
 Cash-out refi to buy Bitcoin makes sense. 
 theres not so much limit to vertical scalability for real estate 
 remember this place at night, beautiful, too little adversarial 🙄 
 buuu just go fight in random forums for free in any language 
 dont agree, ecash mints are, in the worst case, on par with typical (database-based) custodial.
If things go well there are a lot of benefit added.
You can be locked in a mint with some of your liquidity, but your multi-mint wallet still works fine with most of your liquidity. And your payment are private. 
 and extra good features. 
 was cheating to not appear a groupie, obviously yellow remake is the best and theres no second best