Oddbean new post about login | logout * less than 140k as lower bound, less than 500k as upperbound
i think it's a sigma curve, which means that deceleration can be expected but will move to acceleration after that adoption curves are sigma curves https://rmi.org/insight/harnessing-the-power-of-s-curves/ https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/harness-s-curves-chart.png i think the fact that the new president of USA is talking up bitcoin means we are in the steepest part of the sigma, which means acceleration should start either this cycle or the next
and yeah, the reason for the deceleration is described in the 4th segment of that chart... it's because bitcoiners have been investing in rolling out the infrastructure to enable the adoption to take place, we are in the late half of that part of the cycle for sure... and not only that, it looks like the 4 year cycle may even be the exact match for the adoption phases in this case, partly because of the 10x each time
i would bet that if you look at a chart showing the estimate of number of active wallets over the life cycle of bitcoin we are coming to an acceleration point just like the sigma curve this is when the payoff really kicks in for the early adopters... this is when the tableflip starts
it also may require taking into account the disappearance of on chain transaction into lightning, which means you probably need to composit the on-chain wallet estimation with the growth of the number of lightning nodes and UTXOs creating channels and the advances in that tech are also concealing this userbase acceleration a bit as well i think, it may not even look much like acceleration on the basis of on-chain wallets, because of the necessity to shift more and more offchain
custodial lightning providers and ecash mints are the credit card payment and banks of the bitcoin ecosystem i think that as we see the ecash ecosystem mature, we will have a complete monetary system and from that basis we accelerate up the adoption curve's sigma pivot point to the moon... i think that's going to be this next cycle, and probably to continue at a slower pace next cycle i think the reason why it looks like the bitcoin price curve has decelerated has been because of early adopters spending their coins back into development of the system... once that has successfully built the infrastructure required to facilitate adoption it will sharply turn upwards again there is a very high chance that we are going to see a bigger price movement this current bull market than people expect because there is almost everything required for a massive amount of money to move into bitcoin and stay there nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqnyqqft6tz9g9pyaqjvp0s4a4tvcfvj6gkke7mddvmj86w68uwe0qyghwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpzamhxue69uhk6mr9dd6jumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyq9yt7f2pkp89en5cdajv5qhf42w89nm2uw90j3vuzxkq66f45v3665nx8x
100%, but maybe this could be a transition cycle, with the real a big "price surprise" to happen in the next. Ecash still early, more time is required to have average non-bitcoiners economical actors to adopt these tech. It will happens when products based on ecash and bitcoin-based-stack will be evidently better than the fiat counterpart (faster, cooler, no-taxation, no spying, stable) and we need more time to have that.
yeah, exactly, but ecash is already at an early stage, in late beta i would call it, i think this will help mitigate some of the continued costs of development overshadowing the increasing volume and yeah, considering not just the price itself but also the curve of the change in volume would be needed to make a prediction about whether we are on the brink of the vertical of the S curve we have full adoption by legacy finance now, we have the first "cash" format for the system, i would say we are in the early stages of acceleration now
maybe you are right, I expect to be surprised by things as always 😅
I strongly agree with you, but I expect that the acceleration phase will be triggered next cycle; I feel something still need his time to spread and stick in the social actors. I also think that the past cycle was weak in terms of price appreciation because of a peak-of-shitcoinery and various external factors, so this cycle expect a sligthly better performance over the past. My nostradamus 2 cents, I expect to be surprised as always happens...
