Oddbean new post about login | logout I figured. I was curious if you would cash in on the BTC gains by shaving some MSTR and picking up IBIT or FBTC if the allocation to MSTR grew to a certain size.
I’ve been hodling MSTR for four years now and have done very well. Fuck the fud I think I’ll Hodl it forever.
The problem with MSTR is it's inherently impaired because it's stuck in the Tradfi system. Money buying MSTR and bitcoin ETFs is money that can never exit the system. It's harder to get wealth out of the system than to make money in it.
Huh? I can sell MSTR buy bitcoin and send it to a wallet in like 3 clicks. Are you in north korea or africa? I can see the struggle for people in those places
IRAs and Retirement accts are different than brokerage accts. The latter can't be liquidated until you're 65. If you have liquid assets in a brokerage account you should close that and buy corn.
Sure, you can. If you have a good enough excuse, you can even avoid penalties. But even then, you can sell assets in a retirement account and transfer the cash to Unchained and buy Bitcoin and still keep it in a retirement account. The bridges are there, and I expect them to get better.
MSTR is just exposing the money that is stuck in Tradfi. It will never leave or be transferred to the BTC ecosystem. It's permanently stuck there; at best you will have bitcoin proxies in the Tradfi system but never bitcoin. The only way the wealth gets transmuted into bitcoin is if the underlying currency gets backed by bitcoin. 20% cap gains and withdrawal penalties if you move it before 65. Unchained is an option. This is a game of getting capital out of the system (very hard to do). Best bet is a 401k loan. The numbers in your brokerage account are fake. The MSTR crowd still does not understand absolute scarcity.
Not everyone wants or needs to exit tradfi. Bitcoin is mot equity. People also want equities. Everyone is in bitcoin for different reasons. There will always be people that want to bet on companies (invest) to get a return. MSTR has done that in bitcoin terms. People sell stocks every day and buy home, cars, vacations, etc. Pretending the US is iran or somalia is delusional.
Who's pretending the US is Iran or Somalia lol? Hyperbolic much?
You keep acting as if tradfi is a blackhole or something. Capital can flow in the US unlike in those places.
The ops have never actually had their mantras challenged so they just crash out
It is a black hole dude. I operate at the core of it.
Idk what to tell you, bro. If you don’t think people are actively selling securities and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds as I have done many times, then there is no point in continuing this conversation.
That has never been my argument lol. I'm telling you it's prohibitively difficult to get your money out of the system and because of that people are forced into buying ibit mstr etc. in fact most retirement accounts will not even allow access to those products. Most advisors will be de-facto forced to buy those products in order to keep up with the street. A brokerage account, 401k, Roth, IRA are all different products and most of that money will never exit the system. It's permanently stuck. Your cash brokerage account has no problem moving money that represents like .01% of all assets in the system.
Not to mention tax liabilities.
There are tax liabilities when using or selling bitcoin.
Why would you ever sell bitcoin?
To acquire goods and services. The purpose of money
Nooo bro nooo you should burn your keys
Why would I trade it for goods and services when I just use fiat for that? The point is the wave of money going into MSTR or bitcoin ETFs is money that can never exit the system. It's permanently stuck and will never exit; it evaporates. Like all other hyperinflation in the past.
That’s you. Other people are all in and need to sell when merchants don’t accept Bitcoin. That’s not true. Anyone can sell shares of MSTR or IBIT and buy Bitcoin with the proceeds. It’s likely ETFs will allow for in-kind redemption in the future. Stop listening to the orange pillers; you’ll thank me later.
In kind redemptions are possible but I'd rather not count on blackrock to do that for me. I am an original orange piller dude lol. You still do not understand the difference between brokerage accounts and retirement accounts. The money in retirement accounts is permanently stuck, it will never get ported over. At best everyone holding the S&P will get some exposure when the companies buy some corn.
Again with the orange piller takes. I already told you one can take possession of retirement account funds by sending it to Unchained and buying bitcoin. You can also do it by sending it to Choice by Kingdom Trust and taking self custody through Casa. You can keep repeating these things, but they won’t magically come true. There are millions of retired people right now that can take tax free distributions from Roth IRAs and 401ks and buy bitcoin with it.