Oddbean new post about login | logout To be clear here I only believe MSTR is suitable for retirement accounts and I do not believe you should ever sell Bitcoin for MSTR. If you have cash outside retirement you should be buying Bitcoin and holding it in cold storage. I have a 10% allocation to MSTR Anyone thinking about going 100% MSTR is farther out on the risk curve in my opinion. If you’re doing long calls on MSTR you are very far out on the risk curve. Caveat emptor. nostr:note1pg5wk6dwutxjt87ljqq9cegh29788lntyfaspvedjv03pnp0e3gqhrleww
My position is the same. While I am intrigued by Saylor's aggressive bitcoin strategy, I have had concerns from the beginning that he won't refer to bitcoin as money. While I do believe he will make a lot of people rich, I think he is a distraction from freedom money. I hold mstr in a family account for the purpose of breaking my father-in-law's traditional diversification model that he pushes on his kids and grandkids. While it is exciting that I am up 900-1,000% since buying it and benefited from the stock split, it only represents about 5% of my wealth, the rest of which is in #bitcoin. DESPITE THE GREAT MSTR GAINS, IT HASN'T BEEN MTSR THAT HAS FREED ME. #BITCOIN FREED ME DURING THE COVID YEARS. I'VE BEEN STACKING SINCE 2018. I HODL IT MYSELF. I REPLACE WHAT I SPEND. I KEEP AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE IN FIAT. THIS IS THE WAY.
💯 I found myself with a large MSTR position only because I had significant retirement savings before I found bitcoin, withdrawing to buy proper bitcoin would be a huge tax event, and ETFs weren’t available at the time. I have been gradually rebalancing my retirement portfolio towards ETFs while redirecting all new savings to real, self-custody bitcoin.
I completely agree @HODL. MSTR is great in a Roth. I like having BTC on “both sides of the fence” and getting the allocation right seems to be a combination of looking at your asset allocation percentages and straight up instinct and feel. Riding out a couple of bear markets gives you more confidence.
FWIW, this is what my portfolio looks like. I only trade in my retirement accounts and the only trading I do is between the bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin equities. At some point, I plan on taking some of the amounts in the retirement accounts fully off the table and rolling it into spot BTC in an IRA (likely with the Unchained). The amounts I will “take off the table” will come from the amounts in the ETFs. I do *not* trade outside of my tax advantaged accounts. These days, with my free cash flow, I basically only buy spot BTC outside of my retirement accounts. I’ve stopped contributing to my retirement accounts altogether & the reason it’s such a large share of my portfolio in both BTC & USD terms is it’s 1) where I had a lot of starting capital when I decided to go all in to bitcoin and 2) I’ve successfully traded it into both more USD and more BTC via proxies. (Note: for the call options, for the BTC calc, I’m treating it as if I sold them all and rolled them directly into BTC, not into MSTR. It would be smaller percentage if I treated as if I bought MSTR with it. In truth, I’ll probably split it between the two when I do sell them.) https://m.primal.net/MaGz.jpg
One other thing of note, the little bit of SMLR and MSTR I own outside of my retirement accounts I bought with free cash flow, not by selling spot BTC. I bought them when I thought they were relatively cheap vs the price of BTC at the time. But I’m not selling my spot BTC to try and acquire MSTR or SMLR or any other Bitcoin equity. I would not recommend any do that.
I agree, Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR are only good for that retirement money the government don’t let you have. Buy Bitcoin with your free money. 🫡
That’s just it. Use money that can’t access bitcoin. A pension pot (uk term) is ideal for MSTR.
As I understand it: the simplified version of why you would pay a premium for MSTR compared to the underlying BTC is the expectation that the company will continue to increase the BTC per MSTR share; thus, eventually turning the initial premium you paid into a discount for the increased amount of BTC it represents. That sounds like a great deal, but how does the company increase the BTC per MSTR share?: It issues new shares at the premium price so that it can buy even more BTC at the market price; thus increasing the BTC per share ratio. And/or the company sells convertible bonds that effectively accomplishes the same thing - just with leverage on a longer timescale. In other words, if the flow of investors to buy new shares were ever to dry up, the later investors who hadn't yet seen their initial premium price turn into a discount price never will. This sounds like a ponzi scheme that must eventually run out of the new investors necessary to keep it going. It just happens to be a legal ponzi scheme without any apparent fraud or deception. Just make sure to go in with your eyes wide open to these realities. "Buyer beware, Freaks"
I wouldn't call it a ponzi, but indeed at a certain point stock demand will dry up, bye bye expected yields, and the stock will be highly overpriced. Stonks are forward looking. Whoever can model the rate change of BTC yield best wins.
MSTR is trading at a premium to its current NAV but at a discount to its future NAV.
VanEck spaces 11/19 🌼 https://m.primal.net/McFY.mp4
If the flow of investors to buy new shares of any publicly traded company dries up that company is in trouble. If bitcoin keeps doing what it’s does (and it most likely will) it’s reasonable to expect that a company diligently executing a long corporate treasury strategy will also succeed and be handsomely rewarded. That said. If you own no corn and mostly or all MSTR, congratulations, you’ve chosen your stocks wisely, but you also own a publicly traded equity in layers of counterparty custodianship. You own no UTXOs, you can’t send it to family in another country, you can’t fight censorship with it, you can’t spin up a lightning channel with it or use it in a fedimint, or inscribe dick picks on it (would refrain from that one, but you do you) and you sure as shit cannot zap hilarious memes with it.
Absolutely agree. Though there is a limit to how long bitcoin can keep doing what it's doing. Some people think that limit is when it demonetizes gold. Some people - like Saylor - believe it will demonetize most other savings vehicles as well. For all anyone really knows, it will be sooner rather than later. I happen to believe it will be later rather than sooner. My point, though, is whenever that limit does get realized, there will be an awful lot of people who bought expensive MSTR too late to ever get rewarded for it; and would have been much better off just buying BTC at market place. (in addition to your point about them not owning UTXOs).
For sure, yes. Also, if bitcoin follows its historic cycles and dumps in 2026/2027 and you bought near or at the leveraged top of MSTR, it’s a more painful ride down, and you could have waited and potentially bought at a big discount versus a premium.
Will you rebalance if your MSTR position grows to 15% 20%?
Do I look like a big rebalancer? Lol I’m an all in kind of guy.
I figured. I was curious if you would cash in on the BTC gains by shaving some MSTR and picking up IBIT or FBTC if the allocation to MSTR grew to a certain size.
I’ve been hodling MSTR for four years now and have done very well. Fuck the fud I think I’ll Hodl it forever.
The problem with MSTR is it's inherently impaired because it's stuck in the Tradfi system. Money buying MSTR and bitcoin ETFs is money that can never exit the system. It's harder to get wealth out of the system than to make money in it.
Huh? I can sell MSTR buy bitcoin and send it to a wallet in like 3 clicks. Are you in north korea or africa? I can see the struggle for people in those places
IRAs and Retirement accts are different than brokerage accts. The latter can't be liquidated until you're 65. If you have liquid assets in a brokerage account you should close that and buy corn.
Sure, you can. If you have a good enough excuse, you can even avoid penalties. But even then, you can sell assets in a retirement account and transfer the cash to Unchained and buy Bitcoin and still keep it in a retirement account. The bridges are there, and I expect them to get better.
MSTR is just exposing the money that is stuck in Tradfi. It will never leave or be transferred to the BTC ecosystem. It's permanently stuck there; at best you will have bitcoin proxies in the Tradfi system but never bitcoin. The only way the wealth gets transmuted into bitcoin is if the underlying currency gets backed by bitcoin. 20% cap gains and withdrawal penalties if you move it before 65. Unchained is an option. This is a game of getting capital out of the system (very hard to do). Best bet is a 401k loan. The numbers in your brokerage account are fake. The MSTR crowd still does not understand absolute scarcity.
Not everyone wants or needs to exit tradfi. Bitcoin is mot equity. People also want equities. Everyone is in bitcoin for different reasons. There will always be people that want to bet on companies (invest) to get a return. MSTR has done that in bitcoin terms. People sell stocks every day and buy home, cars, vacations, etc. Pretending the US is iran or somalia is delusional.
Who's pretending the US is Iran or Somalia lol? Hyperbolic much?
You keep acting as if tradfi is a blackhole or something. Capital can flow in the US unlike in those places.
The ops have never actually had their mantras challenged so they just crash out
It is a black hole dude. I operate at the core of it.
Idk what to tell you, bro. If you don’t think people are actively selling securities and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds as I have done many times, then there is no point in continuing this conversation.
That has never been my argument lol. I'm telling you it's prohibitively difficult to get your money out of the system and because of that people are forced into buying ibit mstr etc. in fact most retirement accounts will not even allow access to those products. Most advisors will be de-facto forced to buy those products in order to keep up with the street. A brokerage account, 401k, Roth, IRA are all different products and most of that money will never exit the system. It's permanently stuck. Your cash brokerage account has no problem moving money that represents like .01% of all assets in the system.
Not to mention tax liabilities.
There are tax liabilities when using or selling bitcoin.
Why would you ever sell bitcoin?
To acquire goods and services. The purpose of money
Nooo bro nooo you should burn your keys
Why would I trade it for goods and services when I just use fiat for that? The point is the wave of money going into MSTR or bitcoin ETFs is money that can never exit the system. It's permanently stuck and will never exit; it evaporates. Like all other hyperinflation in the past.
That’s you. Other people are all in and need to sell when merchants don’t accept Bitcoin. That’s not true. Anyone can sell shares of MSTR or IBIT and buy Bitcoin with the proceeds. It’s likely ETFs will allow for in-kind redemption in the future. Stop listening to the orange pillers; you’ll thank me later.
In kind redemptions are possible but I'd rather not count on blackrock to do that for me. I am an original orange piller dude lol. You still do not understand the difference between brokerage accounts and retirement accounts. The money in retirement accounts is permanently stuck, it will never get ported over. At best everyone holding the S&P will get some exposure when the companies buy some corn.
Again with the orange piller takes. I already told you one can take possession of retirement account funds by sending it to Unchained and buying bitcoin. You can also do it by sending it to Choice by Kingdom Trust and taking self custody through Casa. You can keep repeating these things, but they won’t magically come true. There are millions of retired people right now that can take tax free distributions from Roth IRAs and 401ks and buy bitcoin with it.
what the point for you to have MTSR at all? almost no sense
https://m.primal.net/MagX.jpg
So they are just better than holding Bitcoin )
buying calls is stupid. selling puts is where its at. why be the junkie when you can be the dealer? buying 100 shares and selling calls not a bad idea either.
