Oddbean

The only thing clear, is that Americans are stupid AF for electing a convicted felon, fraudster and insurrectionist. I knew people hated democrats I just didn’t think they were willing to go scorched earth to keep one out of the White House.

Of course. Any time someone speaks bad of the tangerine turd and backs it up with proof, somehow we’re the ones who are brainwashed. 🤦🏻‍♂️This is coming from a party that still thinks the 2020 election was rigged but can’t prove a damn thing to support it. Seriously, what is it you’re trying to say, he wasn’t actually convicted of multiple felonies, fraud and insurrection? He wasn’t impeached twice the last time he was in office? He didn’t actually gas his own citizens to have a photo op with a bible? He didn’t make his supporters wait for hours in the cold so that he could be on a podcast? Did he not sell NFT’s like a late night oxyclean salesman, all the while actually thinking that he’s a better president than a founding father and the man who ended slavery? Tell me when you want me to stop… TL;DR He has been convicted in a court of law, he has absolutely no proof to back up his conspiracy claims, yet we’re the ones being brainwashed... 🤦🏻‍♂️

The convictions are bogus bud. Don’t you think it’s a little weird that you care so much about a politician from a country you don’t live in? If that happened to me it would make me wonder if someone else had put that thought into my mind. Again wishing you luck on your journey of self reflection and meta cognitive unpacking.

Of course they are. 🤦🏻‍♂️The convictions from a court of law are bogus, but whatever the tangerine turd happens to spew, is gospel. And we’re the ones who are brainwashed? JFC As far as my residency, I am American, I’m not sure why you assumed I wasn’t. And even if I weren’t, what would be strange about having a strong opinion about who the leader of the free world is? If I lived in Germany, I would not be so ignorant as to think that whatever happens in America, will have no effect on myself, in Germany. You call it weird, I would call it common sense. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Not sure what the rest of that rambling is about. I tried giving you the benefit of the doubt because you have so many followers, but it turns out you’re not really any different from any other Trump fan that I have come across. Take care and save the projecting for someone dumb enough to go along with it…

Ok, now I know you’re a kid. I am not sure why you think this sounds like something I would do when you don’t even know me. Also, that’s how a conversation/argument/debate works. I make a statement and you are free to rebut any part of that statement. And since you only chose that one aspect of my comment to attack, it’s fair to assume that’s the only part of my statement that you take issue with.

Not for the adult it’s not. 🤷🏻‍♂️ We’re supposed to be brainwashed by the media, yet, when I state a fact, instead of a rebuttal, I get anecdotes. I mention that the tangerine turd is a convicted felon, which is a fact. And as a rebuttal, I get, “the charges are bogus”. Hmm, ok, do you plan on proving that or am I just supposed to take your word for it?

An elitist, douchebag, gatekeeper, congratulations on earning the trifecta. I have had the (mis)fortune of meeting people with all of these traits individually, but you’re the first one who covers the bases all by themselves. 🤣

You’re backing someone who has been pushing conspiracy theories for the past four years, with no proof and several court dismissal to show for it, and I’m the puppet? Polly want a cracker? 🤦🏻‍♂️

I really should stay clear of this thread but will just make one little comment. Do as you wish with it. One of the main thing to come out of this election for someone like me who spends life immersed in data is the numbers and not just totals but by states. I care not for lawyers or rhetoric from either side, it's distraction from an issue. The numbers demonstrate an extremely high probability of massive corruption in the previous election. If you'd believe that, drop the media or social media, download some data and have a play yourself. The last election was a total fraud. Any partisan position on this is infantile: For dems, if you don't admit to reality and assist in fixing this, it could be done in future by the other side. For reps, you might despise the idea that the last election was a cheat but you'd not benefit from it being done in future the other way around. Y'all need to get together, bury the hatchet, admit to some blunt numerical facts and work to fix this so you can all have a little more faith in each other, regardless which direction wins.

Better from people who know how to explain things. Am awful. I'll try to find some of the summary papers on looking at election stats. These an amazing guy frpm I think stanford who shows how to really do it properly. Should be easy to find as always trotted out when Putin gets elected and was cancelled on last us election. I honestly am not great at maths but I know how to download data and ask simple questions. First one is where do 19m people disappear to. Start looking through from there. I'll try to find one of the pubs on doing this stuff properly

Found it. Look up the finite mixture model. It's a question of trend analysis. To be honest, I didn't even bother. I just found data from both electionsand compared numbers. It's way to blatant so moved on. I saw couple of articles recently with finite mixture on Georgia elections. Did not look encouraging

If you haven’t seen it and are curious, look up Guatemala making elections more transparent and verifiable on the blockchain. No reason USA can’t simply do something like that. If there are questions on integrity, the lack thereof is possibly by design in any system.

For someone who immerses themselves in data, all I read are more assumptions and no actual facts. If it’s so clear to y’all that it was a fraud, why can’t anybody prove it? If I understand you correctly, you’re basing this statement on the fact that Trump had a commanding victory in the latest election and because he could do no wrong, it’s easier for yall to create a conspiracy theory to explain his loss in 2020 rather than accept the facts. And when I say facts, I mean what can actually be proven. This, as it stands, is anecdotal at best.

I think the disconnect is believing people voted for Trump. Many voted against the Democrats including many people that have voted Dem their whole lives. They gaslit their base saying there was nothing wrong with Joe Biden for several years, only to have a weekend rendezvous coup and install Kamala as the candidate over holding an open primary, and then they resumed the gaslighting by saying Trump was "the end of democracy" yet they literally just committed an equivalent act on their base. This was after nearly the last decade where they kneecapped Bernie, pushed multiple prominent young party members out (while doing some heinous shit to them) like Tulsi Gabbard, as well as vilified a portion of their wealthy donor class. Finally, the majority of America is relatively moderate/centrist. Pretty much every election was a candidate that was just slightly left or right of center but within the last decade the Dems also decided to crank the volume on that from a 7 to bat shit crazy. Extreme candidates pushing their narratives like the Squad. The DEI movements that saw many people lose promotions or jobs to someone that was not equally qualified just to hit a made up quota. The insane push for trans everything -- tell me how every celeb just happens to have multiple LGBTQ kids wanting to be the opposite sex when that would be a statistical anomaly? So on and so forth. People got fed the fuck up. They voted against the Democratic Party more so than voting for Donald Trump. Moreover, the fact that all of the discarded Democrats that joined the Republican party made it look more like what they were used to via what their party had become. All the party needs to do is return closer to the center and they'll be fine. That should start with burning down the co-opted DNC. So, if you actually care about the Democratic Party, that is where your hatred and vitriol should be placed, and you should mobilize fellow Dems to demand change from within. But hey... Orange Man Bad. Amirite?

The TL;DR of this seems to be, you feel like people voted for the lesser of two evils, not really having support for their party, but absolutely against the opposition. What this election has shown me is that people are willing to go to extremes or to make decisions they normally wouldn’t make, for the sole purpose of change. Everyone hates what the democrats have done in the past four years so much they are willing to forget about all of the dangers Trump brings with him to the job. That’s when I know Americans are finally fed up. And to be clear, I don’t box myself in with an affiliation, there are aspects of both parties I like and obviously aspects of both I dislike. Just getting that out of the way because that’s usually the first thing people think. If I am disparaging the Republicans, I must be a democrat. Uhm, no, I don’t, lol.

Yep, that's exactly how I see it. I help run our local Bitcoin meetup and we have multiple lifetime Dems that held their nose and voted Trump this cycle. I'm talking deeply entrenched from places like Chicago and New York and find their lifelong party nothing like what they grew up with. I will also say I heard both of those I'm referencing they believed Kamala was a bigger threat to democracy than Trump. Definitely wasn't a good look to be projecting Trump was the "End of Democracy" and then going on TV and talking about censoring social media. Lastly, I think the Dems could have put up multiple moderate candidates and beat Trump, especially if they didn't ostracize Tulsi, RFK. I fully believe that if they didn't go so extreme over this last decade and ran Tulsi this cycle, we'd see our first woman President in history. Now she is likely to be the first woman President as a Republican.