Oddbean

You’re backing someone who has been pushing conspiracy theories for the past four years, with no proof and several court dismissal to show for it, and I’m the puppet? Polly want a cracker? 🤦🏻‍♂️

I really should stay clear of this thread but will just make one little comment. Do as you wish with it. One of the main thing to come out of this election for someone like me who spends life immersed in data is the numbers and not just totals but by states. I care not for lawyers or rhetoric from either side, it's distraction from an issue. The numbers demonstrate an extremely high probability of massive corruption in the previous election. If you'd believe that, drop the media or social media, download some data and have a play yourself. The last election was a total fraud. Any partisan position on this is infantile: For dems, if you don't admit to reality and assist in fixing this, it could be done in future by the other side. For reps, you might despise the idea that the last election was a cheat but you'd not benefit from it being done in future the other way around. Y'all need to get together, bury the hatchet, admit to some blunt numerical facts and work to fix this so you can all have a little more faith in each other, regardless which direction wins.

Better from people who know how to explain things. Am awful. I'll try to find some of the summary papers on looking at election stats. These an amazing guy frpm I think stanford who shows how to really do it properly. Should be easy to find as always trotted out when Putin gets elected and was cancelled on last us election. I honestly am not great at maths but I know how to download data and ask simple questions. First one is where do 19m people disappear to. Start looking through from there. I'll try to find one of the pubs on doing this stuff properly

Found it. Look up the finite mixture model. It's a question of trend analysis. To be honest, I didn't even bother. I just found data from both electionsand compared numbers. It's way to blatant so moved on. I saw couple of articles recently with finite mixture on Georgia elections. Did not look encouraging

If you haven’t seen it and are curious, look up Guatemala making elections more transparent and verifiable on the blockchain. No reason USA can’t simply do something like that. If there are questions on integrity, the lack thereof is possibly by design in any system.

For someone who immerses themselves in data, all I read are more assumptions and no actual facts. If it’s so clear to y’all that it was a fraud, why can’t anybody prove it? If I understand you correctly, you’re basing this statement on the fact that Trump had a commanding victory in the latest election and because he could do no wrong, it’s easier for yall to create a conspiracy theory to explain his loss in 2020 rather than accept the facts. And when I say facts, I mean what can actually be proven. This, as it stands, is anecdotal at best.