I believe homo sapiens will become extinct sometime in the next 60 years. Climate change doesn't matter. It's a longterm problem, and we don't have very good chance of long-term survival. What is going to kill us? One of the hyper-dangerous things that we keep developing due to game-theory: nuclear weapons, bioweapons, and AI weapons. All of those things are hyper-dangerous, but if any country stops developing them they will lose to whatever country develops them anyways. So every country keeps on doing these things... gain of function research, weapons research, AI research. It can't be stopped, and eventually one of them will kill us all. If we are lucky there will be survivors. Probably not on mars though. So don't worry about climate change, live every day to the fullest, do something that feels meaningful, and enjoy the time you have.
Nuclear weapons are fake DYOR
Wut
This book https://libgen.is/book/index.php?md5=A703DF9D906A1A1E65D6B0BBC9503CA4 And this lecture https://youtu.be/Y9CrhZpFpZk?si=EsBrws1mzie019rj
https://youtu.be/fhnrrLxQEVQ?si=3NzmqumrCs2hpIVp Death objects are cute, but also very interesting when the argument is wrong. 🦖
Ok this is new and far out there but out of curiosity I’ll look into it. Thanks for providing the links
I thought it was too but these two pieces turned me fully around and they add up to the whitest of white pills
Watching the Galen Winsor video. His argument is that nuclear waste isn't that dangerous, and it is highly valuable and wasteful for us to be "disposing" of it. Many things he already said (I'm 30 minutes in) confirm the existence of nuclear weapons. I don't think this source shows what you think it shows. But I'll keep watching. It is interesting.
Galen didn’t do anything with nuclear weapons. His work is with nuclear energy. This lecture is about how the public has been lied to about nuclear material and radiation by “industry” so that they can write all their own rules about it. If you read Death Object, the argument is that the public has been lied to about the weapons potential about this technology for the exact same reason. Means + motive + opportunity Means = the Rockefellers were the richest family in America, and had bought up a lot of academia, including founding the University of Chicago for example, and they had mobilized war time spending to boot Motive = prevent nuclear energy from impacting the profits from their global cartel on petroleum Opportunity = during wartime, they could pull off the spending, the propaganda, everything, with impunity The Atomic Secrecy Act of 1946 made it so that, if I had smoking gun proof that nuclear weapons don’t work, if I had the math in my hand, it would be a classified government secret from the moment it was written down. Anyone could be arrested without trial for even studying through math and physics the possibility that nukes are a hoax.
My own research uncovered this: Marc Andressen whose comments appear to have started this conspiracy theory is heavily invested in nuclear power. He benefits from more commercial usage of Uranium, which means he benefits from less fear of nuclear weapons.
Marc Andressen had nothing to do with Galen Winsor giving his lecture and it would be surprising if he was secretly behind Death Object but it wouldn’t undermine any of the claims The myth of nuclear weapons is a hoax perpetrated by the Rockefellers to protect their global oil cartel from competition Listen to Galen - they got the laws written such that THEY get to refine and stockpile all the nuclear material for nearly a century. Then they just need to come out with a “new safe breakthrough” and they will have transitioned from oil monopoly to uranium monopoly without losing power (pun intended)
All the while getting to just say “Weapons of Mass Destruction” to justify any invasion of any country they want It’s honestly brilliant
The earth is flat too? Hiroshima and Nagasaki just a psyop I guess?
No the earth is not flat. That’s a NASA psyop to get people like yourself to just ask me if I’m a “flat-earther” when I bring you evidence that NASA is a fraud. It’s clearly working 🙄 Yes. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were fire-bombed like hundreds of other Japanese and German cities, but they were reported as these special new super bombs in the uncontested wartime press to a credulous public, probably to stop Soviet advancement on the Japanese (they had just declared war, and splitting up Europe was annoying enough, can you imagine a partitioned Japan?) Watch the nuclear test videos they made at Lookout Mountain. They are laughable.
Extinct? Lol no. The American cockroach, the Norway rat and Homo aSapiens will survive anything this side of Sol leaving the main sequence. Even ourselves. (Numbers may take a hit from time to time.) Industrial civilisation, now... that thing is fragile as cheap Chinese porcelain in a room full of fighting monkeys.
I hope you are right
Generalists survive rapid ecological change better than specialists. We three invasive species are generalists, opportunistic, and occupy a wide variety of biomes. We also CAUSE rapid ecological change that we then adapt to, quicker than older inhabitants. Our survival may not be a good thing from other species PoV...
In this case why Bitcoin? Cash out and pursue every hedonic pleasure you can imagine. There is no future, and you don't when it ends. Run up all the debt you can amass.
Run up debt and persue hedonic pleasure? I said 60 years, not 60 days.
"sometime in the next 60 years" i.e. any minute but maximum 60 years So what makes you think you're going to get early notice for when it's time to start the hedonism?
I don't think I'm going to get early notice. Also, I'm not interested in hedonism. If it were my last day I would not seek hedonistic pleasure. I don't really have any desires, except fleeting ones.
My current theory is that humans have lots of desire when they are young, and as they age they lose all their desire. In my 50s I don't really have a lot of desire. I have enough to program gossip, to get pissed off about innocent children being killed or about people lying to the public. But irrespective of the outcome I'm okay with it. I've become more stoic with age without trying to become stoic. But I couldn't work at a startup company at this point... I couldn't even do that in my 20s I was never cut out for that kind of thing. My mom in her 80s says she doesn't fear death, that she feared death a lot when she was young, but as she got older she just didn't care as much.
I’ll wager 50,000,000 sats that there are humans alive in 60 years. Want to bet?
Heh, by that time that will be all of the sats! (the rest of the private keys will have been lost) But also I will surely be dead by then. That's why I picked 60 years. Nobody can hold me to account. ;-)
I respect the honesty🫡 I don’t even disagree with your thesis that hard times will be ahead - I just think complete extinction is close to completely impossible, especially by our own hands. Maybe a giant meteor could do it, but aside from that, no matter how bad things get I speculate a few genius cockroaches of people will always make it through, somewhere in the world.
After I wrote it I backpedalled in my mind, but didn't bother to correct myself. I think that you are correct - it would be exceedingly hard to kill ALL of the humans on Earth. Hell, I don't even think they can kill all of the mosquitos with that gene drive trick they invented. But I do think that gain-of-function research will never stop, and as time goes on, we will suffer more and more from this kind of thing.
Yes, I agree. There is a lot of darkness in the world currently, and many of our values are out of whack. Some of our smartest people are also paid by the state mafia to do things which actively hurt humanity. We are going to come through it though friend 🫂 people like you and me, and many of the others here must restore some order and morality, first in our personal lives, and then in the world. We have some of the most powerful forces on our side. Hope, human ambition, creativity, strength, perseverance. I’d even go as far as to say that some higher power will guide us towards a better world. The ability to change the world and survive hard times starts with the belief that it can be done.
genetic stuff is becoming easier. 20y ago it took a lot of $$$ and equipment to just sequence a living being.. today there are DIY CRISP kits. soon GoF may be done in smaller labs (even easier if just replicating known previous results). Then, non-state actors, or state actors looking for plausible deniability, may do GoF, and then shit happens, on purpose or not. Even a ban would be hard to enforce.
Not disappear, but population will be reduced to a density where leaders don't bother to destroy other countries anymore. Imagine there's only Australia and Guatemala left. Why would they fight each other?
I think you are right. I lost my head.
I found it for you :)
I'll tell you an interesting personal story. My father was a stubborn man. He never admitted when he was wrong, he always defended his position even when it was hopeless. One day he was disagreeing with my little brother and my little brother just said "I was wrong. I lost my head." And my father laughed. He and my little brother laughed a long time. Ever after that day, my father had no problem backing away from something he said that later he realized was wrong. He would just say "I lost my head" and start laughing. It's funny how sometimes children teach parents.
I follow you thru many accounts. One day I'd like to meet you, as I am your fan! Ps: it would be great if Gossip could do searches only on an specific user, or on one specific list or set of lists
I'd be happy to meet you one day. Gossip searches could indeed be improved in a lot of ways. Those are good ideas.