Oddbean new post about | logout
 I believe homo sapiens will become extinct sometime in the next 60 years.

Climate change doesn't matter. It's a longterm problem, and we don't have very good chance of long-term survival.

What is going to kill us? One of the hyper-dangerous things that we keep developing due to game-theory:  nuclear weapons, bioweapons, and AI weapons.  All of those things are hyper-dangerous, but if any country stops developing them they will lose to whatever country develops them anyways. So every country keeps on doing these things... gain of function research, weapons research, AI research. It can't be stopped, and eventually one of them will kill us all.

If we are lucky there will be survivors. Probably not on mars though.

So don't worry about climate change, live every day to the fullest, do something that feels meaningful, and enjoy the time you have.