Oddbean

Let me make my stance on Iran vs Israel explicit: 1. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are NOT Iran. They may be funded and supplied by Iran, they may get advice from Iran, but just like Ukraine is not the United States, these groups are not Iran and legally speaking, according to the UN Charter, the Geneva Conventions and other international law, Iran is not culpable for the actions of these groups. The groups themselves bear full responsibility for their own actions. 2. Iran recently attacked Israel. This was the first time Iran ever attacked Israel AFAIK. They were very careful about it. They followed Chapter VII Article 51 of the UN charter, and reported to the Security Council their exercise of their right to self-defense before they attacked. They compiled with the proportionality rules of the 1949 Geneva Convention, and furthermore limited their attack to military targets, and not even to people but things like airstrips where nobody died. They didn't have to be that careful, but clearly they are trying to only send a signal, rather than escalate. They clearly announced afterwards that their attack was over and there would be no further retaliation, that the matter is now resolved. 3. There is no right of self-defense for a strike that was itself fully legally compliant self-defense. Israel has no right to respond.

I have been patiently waiting for a situation where Israel was in the right. In such a case I will defend Israel. So far I haven't seen one. This sequence of events may lead people to believe I am biased.

it is not really possible for Israel to be in the right when they bomb women and children and then block food, water and medical supplies. if Israel doesn't respond to Iran that won't mean they did something right. it will simply mean they don't have US backing.

Well said. This doesn't need to escalate. It probably will, but it doesn't need to. Iran is a member of the SCO and part of the defence pact with Russia and China, if Israel escalates that's one thing, but if the US provides direct support they'll receive a much needed education.

The US says it will only assist in defense, it won't assist in attacking Iran. The UK, France and Jordan also assisted in defense. If Israel attacks Iran, it would be strategic of Russia to take that same position and assist in Iran's defense. Only it is not geared up to do so. When Bush cancelled the ABM treaty, instead of developing anti-ballistic defenses like the US did, Russia decided to develop hypersonic missiles that evade such defenses. But that has left Russia unable to respond in kind in this current situation -- they can't shoot down Israel's attacks. They are optimized to go on the attack, but that would be a more severe escalation that I don't think they will do until they feel they must. China will stay out of it for as long as possible. But they are ready in case WW3 really heats up.

In terms of the damage actually done it was trivial. Israel "won" that exchange and the US is trying to convince Israel to take the win and not respond. In terms of the number of mutitions fired it appeared that it could have been more than proportional if not defended against, and that is undoubtedly the reasoning Israel will use.

Good analysis in general. I’m not a fan of Israel, but I also have contempt for the sociopaths who run Iran. I doubt they were deliberately attempting proportionality and just underestimated that capabilities of the air defense alliance and its equipment. However, I do hope Israel will not respond!

i don't think the law matters here frankly. what matters is whether the American taxpayer can be suckered into another war for Israel or not. Iran's attack was indeed the opposite of October 7 attack by Hamas for which Iran has explicitly stated that it was not happy that Hamas did that. that's of course because Hamas wittingly or unwittingly was working for Israel when they handed Israel the ace Israel needed to launch the genocide in "retaliation" Iran on other hand was not about to give Israel such an ace but also they couldn't show themselves to be complete pushovers and thus they came up with this "attack" that will go down as the most diplomatic military attack in history LOL but again, none of this matters. what matters is how much ( or how little ) control over America Israel has at the moment. also with elections around the corner we need to have a statement from Trump about this. the problem Israel is facing is everybody knows exactly what they're doing. they are Genociding Palestinians in hope of provoking Iran but Iran is refusing to be provoked except for the most measured of responses ... what Israel needs is dead babies like they were able to conjure up with October 7th - absent that with the world sentiment on the side of Palestine it will be hard for them to drag US into a war with Iran that they so desperately want ... remember Israel had to do 9-11 to drag US into Iraq and Afghanistan ... and most people believe Israel has more than retaliated for October 7th already ... it's a tough situation for everybody right now ... both Jews and Arabs ...

International law is something that everybody is throwing under the bus. That's fine, but there are consequences. In the final analysis, strategy is what really matters. But support of international law is a good strategy that often goes unrecognized. I predict Israel will attack Iran directly soon. Iran promised to immediately respond to any further provocation, no delays and deliberation, they are wound tight and ready to spring. So when the next strike happens, expect an all out and very intense war.

Countries and groups are not working things out peacefully. In my opinion nuclear reactors, nuclear weapon development and weapon facilities will be the target, but no one knows tomorrow in certainty. I think people and countries are going to fight, best to live peacefully, there will be enough people seeking revenge. People need transformation... if this world is going to survive. Feel like most people are spectators on a stage, watching a horrible play.