Oddbean new post about | logout
 Well said. This doesn't need to escalate. It probably will, but it doesn't need to.

Iran is a member of the SCO and part of the defence pact with Russia and China, if Israel escalates that's one thing, but if the US provides direct support they'll receive a much needed education. 
 The US says it will only assist in defense, it won't assist in attacking Iran.  The UK, France and Jordan also assisted in defense.

If Israel attacks Iran, it would be strategic of Russia to take that same position and assist in Iran's defense. Only it is not geared up to do so.  When Bush cancelled the ABM treaty, instead of developing anti-ballistic defenses like the US did, Russia decided to develop hypersonic missiles that evade such defenses. But that has left Russia unable to respond in kind in this current situation -- they can't shoot down Israel's attacks. They are optimized to go on the attack, but that would be a more severe escalation that I don't think they will do until they feel they must.

China will stay out of it for as long as possible. But they are ready in case WW3 really heats up.