Bitcoin White 3 is nearing completion.
White 4 should be similar in price and time to White 2, but a little more sideways. So roughly a $12k drop, retest-ish of old ATH into Christmas.
Then a January blowoff to the ultimate high.
The higher White 3 goes, the more likely the $130k target is in play. TBD yet. But this is not the place to chase.
https://m.primal.net/MBzH.png
Tesla appears to be in w4 OF White 3. I don't think this is White 4 yet. It's possible. But one more push to $385 (ish) this week may complete White 3.
I got banned on LinkedIn so charts will be posted here for now.
Get the word out to LI verse please.
https://m.primal.net/MBHS.png
Bitcoin $80k.
Completing White 3 soon. The 14yr top looks to target end of January. Right at inauguration. After that, run.
https://m.primal.net/Lynv.png
Breakout confirming.
Main Target: $100k
Overshoot: $130k
This is a SUCKER's RALLY, completing FIVE Elliott Wave degrees dating back to 2011 in Bitcoin. The end of a 14 year move.
It requires a 90% multi-year crash after topping.
Be. Fucking. Careful.
https://m.primal.net/LuFe.png
I wouldn't be holding Bitcoin right now.
This is just the A wave too. Show me low $50's and I'll make the ultimate call: $15k.
Shall I remind you I warned over 10 times that $74k was a possible top. The Bitcoin worshippers on here laughed. Nostr receipts are forever.
https://m.primal.net/LKCe.png
The count still very much valid. Only minor adjustments.
It's important to understand this is not a "call", per say. Yet. It's a risk warning. But downside acceleration to the low $50's will confirm this count for me and turn it into a call.
Just like a break above $74k confirms a target of $100k to $130k. But that also requires an 80% drop to follow.
The point is there is no confirmation EITHER direction in Bitcoin: up or down. But downside risk is very high. And upside potential is low. Thus, the place to be in this market is sidelines until a clear setup presents itself.
https://m.primal.net/LgLe.png
Yup, 100% Elliott Wave. As they say: "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news".
Important to caveat, this is not a prediction, yet. But it is a risk warning. Let me quantify the nuance like this:
High conviction bullish = Buy
Unclear charts = Sidelines
High downside risk = Sidelines
High conviction bearish = Short
So it's a risk warning to holders. Hopefully the nuanced logic tree makes sense.
It will definitely be over $150k at some point in the future.
But if it goes to $15k first, a smart player can own 4x more of it than they do now. 😉
Let's see if the macro picture clears up here.
I didn't say it's going to $15k. Read the nuance. There is risk of it going to $15k.
An 80% correction is required in Bitcoin. Since March we've just been determining if that correction starts from $74k to target $15k.
Or starting from $100-130k to target $20-25k.
No matter where it starts from, it's coming. Because a 5-wave move since 2018 is completing. So I reiterate again. Exercise extreme caution.
The bull alternate count FYI.
Only validates on break of $74k ATH, for a few "last breaths" before crashing. Best to wait for clarity.
https://m.primal.net/Lgkp.png
Need to exercise discipline. Only bullish above $74k.
Not $70k. Not $73k. Not even a touch of $74k. Only above. Markets are in a very eerie place right now ready to play tricks.
Doesn't really matter. El Salvador was the first to start buying Bitcoin in Sept 2021. Bitcoin topped 2 months later.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is a real thing.
Extremely interesting. But no Play Store links anywhere on their site. Or listed countries of operation.
I take it you can use as a payment processer, then convert back to fiat easily (non maxi's want this).
Mine is dynamic. Ever evolving.
You can be kicked off one branch but be re-entered by another. If the endorser believes you should be. Fully self-regulating by the userbase in real time.
Not Vitor's decision to make, it's the network's.
And if these idiot devs built an algo, we wouldn't have this issue.
Nostr has some of the most brain-dead development I've ever seen. If I was healthy and flush with cash I'd annihilate these clients. They're sitting ducks for disruption.
Elon's gaslighting is outrageous. Saving free speech, one limited visibility post at a time.
The dude is the king of narrative control.
He sued Jeremy Clarkson TWICE because he didn't like Clarkson's review of the Tesla Roadster on Top Gear. To suppress the bad press.
All of a sudden he's against lawfare, hush suits, censorship, and government subsidies.... Even though he rode each of these things all the way to the top. Insanity.
https://m.primal.net/KfdO.png
He's got a point actually. A decentralized protocol is pointless if clients are centralized.
It's like holding decentralized Bitcoin on a centralized exchange.
I have no idea how to decentralize clients though....
The owner of the client. For example, you, in relation to Damus.
Just like they did with Pavel Durov. They'll say, "Will, shut Damus down or we're putting you in a cage".
As a client operator, you need to prepare for that. Because eventually, it's a very likely scenario if Nostr takes off. This is a war.
You have services though, no? API's, your Relay, iOS versions.
Basically, can the app run forever without maintenance? If not, those fail points will be targeted.
Open source is good. If the app can live in a way that even you can't shut it down in any way, you've solved this problem.
Good. You're building robustly then.
On the iOS side, there's still App Store risk. Need good ways to sideload iOS apps without the store. Android is easy. I haven't see many non-jailbreak ways on Apple. Ideas?
No one is worried about the relays. They're quite decentralized. But you can't really use a relay without a client. Right now there's 3 main ones that work. That's why I raise the centralization point.
Open-source and forkable seems to be the most logical key to solving that. Looks like Will is doing that. Good.
Will check out Start9, looks interesting. Thx
Over the next 5yrs, Elon could own and control:
-The Social Graph (Twitter)
-The ISP (Starlink)
-The ISP Launcher (SpaceX)
-The Bank (X Bank)
-The Car (Tesla)
-The AI driving the car (Autopilot)
-Camera's on tens of millions of cars (God Mode like)
-A humanoid (Optimus)
The person claiming to "save free-speech" is usually the one who wants to control it the most.
Only Nostr people understand how insanely dangerous this is.
To fight censorship we must understand the attack points:
1) The app itself
2) The app stores it's distributed on
3) The ISP it's accessed over
Each problem needs solving
1) App: Solved via Nostr
2) Stores: Solved via APK distribution on Android
3) ISP: Solved via decentralized internet. Hardware. This is huge and its importance can't be stressed enough.
Only 3 months away from Nostr and I already got a possible LinkedIn ban. I still have access, but they may nuke me.
If they do. I'll be back here.
If not, on LI we stay. For now. (LI has been great other than this)
Drop any major Nostr developments I missed in the last 3 months.
https://m.primal.net/JkgN.png
Devs won't listen. So Nostr is only backup worthy until they do.
A social network only needs 2 functions:
-An Algo. (For Post distribution + Feed curation)
-Notifications.
Nostr has neither.
It doesn't need all this useless bullshit that Nostr devs seem distracted building. All while the 2 most critical functions remain unbuilt. So back to LI until devs wake up. Or get wiped out.
And this attitude is why Nostr is still under 20k DAU's after 2yr+.
Until it perishes, Nostr will remain smaller than a Reddit Sub. The nuts and bolts exist here to be mainstream though.
Laugh all you want. LinkedIn gets distribution.
Without distribution (an algo), you might as well be shadow-banned. Because the effect is the same.
https://m.primal.net/JxPe.png
I want Nostr to succeed. I'm not slamming it to shit on it. I'm pointing out critical issues preventing its mainstream adaptation. To fix them. So it can adopt quicker!
Nostr has the nuts and bolts to do so. And still may eventually.
I'd much rather move to Nostr now, rather than risk bans on LI.
But I'm also not going to post into the void while the growing pains are worked out. Especially when devs show no intention of fixing them.
Endorsement Lists are the solution to #Nostr Web Of Trust issues.
User 1 endorses User 2, bringing them into the WoT.
Only endorsed users are allowed to bring new users inside the WoT.
Here's the kicker, it's hierarchical.
If a bad actor sneaks into the WoT and brings a bunch of bots, any person above them can knock the whole branch off.
Not sure if this could be added to NIP 51, or if it needs a new NIP.
BITCOIN: Wave 3 of Wave 3 breakout IN PROGRESS. Target $50-55k within 6 weeks. Likely sooner.
Wave 3 is the most powerful Elliott Wave. It's the heart of the parabola. Social media euphoria and early crypto bro delusions confirm this. Enjoy the ride.
https://m.primal.net/HRoP.png
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Notes by CappyNate🍁 | export