Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by camper | export

 All the excess votes were casted one way; what are the odds 🙃  
 onboarding is somehow getting way worse. we're stopping all new new feature dev to focus our onbo... 
 Leadership 
 Thanks for sharing the interesting stuff here. You're right, there was certainly quite some hubris stemming from misunderstanding how the betting markets work.

The ability to simply communicate the odds in real time while the MSM (& Kamala) are still hedging with "too early to tell" was a major win for the betting markets. 
  @NunyaBidness, check this out, it's raising fair points. 
 "They just don't work any more, those baseless accusations that anyone we disagree with is a racist, misogynist, fascist. After being invoked in en masse and in vain for the better part of the past decade, their power to shock and awe is finally gone. All that's left is a weak whimper. Good fucking riddance."

- DHH

https://world.hey.com/dhh/the-spells-are-spent-beaa675b 
 That was my first thought in the morning too. People are finally fed up with the righteous and super subjectivr argumentation about the speaker's character instead about the ideas.

All the -ist slurs & basement hiding instead of open dialogue has been a major drag on the sanity of this country.

Now that we can recognize that this thoughts firewall isn't working anymore on vast majority of the country, we can start focusing the energy on bettering all the ideas instead of fighting the firewalls.

nostr:nevent1qqswcavztc6u2356uzdt0l4sx7y24ue3eqgqgeesx8y3anex89wnk8spz3mhxw309ucnydewxqhrqt338g6rsd3e9upzpdly20m0m6meejsasmalp39jp6lw45w7nagxw53x8rgre60lpr5vqvzqqqqqqykvjqsk 
 Gm,

Today I think is a good day for me to finally checkout bluesky  
 Please, report back. 
 GM

If you need some free salt, NYT is running a solid deal today. https://www.nytimes.com/

4 years for retrospective might not be enough for them.

But since that's out of the way now, let's get back to hating and not trusting the governments. They'll need it as well.

☕🥂 
 GM, sir 🫡 
 So a shitcoin market is more accurate than the entire legacy media lol 
 The more 50:50 they project, the more eyeballs and ad money they could squeeze. Incentives... 
 i feel compassion for people who still believe, with the very best of intentions, that elections ... 
 Banana republic 
 MSM moderative authority is still too effectice for the international news. Fwiw, in CZ it's less balanced than average US TV channel. 
 It's natural and good that they have better  understanding and objectivity on the local issues, though. 
 Question to US guys - when will be this shit show over?
Thursday? Final results when?

It seems I... 
 The biggest surprise would be to see an end to this before we starve the beast. 
 Is that real?! 
 This site should be rebuilt on Nostr?

https://www.pnutsfreedomfarm.com/meet-our-animals

- You could zap the individual rescue animals
- I'm sure they would especially enjoy snacking on some ecash nuts

#peanut 
 How much is PayPal stealing from them?
And what are the odds that they will freeze their funds?

- non zero (!)

- "Generally, PayPal charges a fee for donations, which typically includes a percentage of the transaction amount plus a fixed fee. For U.S. charities, this is often around 2.89% + $0.49 per transaction, but it can"
- that's about 5% less nuts for the animals just because of the greedy and inefficient paypal

https://image.nostr.build/8873309fd567eca54c1a325ea28848340190f90ea377c8add788d0cd5d9c8fec.jpg



nostr:nevent1qqsvh25qhq7d6jhwnkd2w64txetdnaxdm30nxjdrctzxepknz6ws58qpz3mhxw309ucnydewxqhrqt338g6rsd3e9upzpdly20m0m6meejsasmalp39jp6lw45w7nagxw53x8rgre60lpr5vqvzqqqqqqyvx8nkp 
 just tried uber after a long time

wow they ruined that app 
 There already is. CEO & Product leadership. They screw up. 
 Aside from the options provided by startos, what technology pairs well with a bitcoin citadel? #a... 
 Guns & cows

And other self sufficiency/preparedness skills and tech for your citadel. For portability/bug out and ebjoyment add some 4x4 truck/camper and go practice your tech and skills in the middle of nowhere for few days. 
 The best multisig protection model is that physical time and distance requirements.

No duress PI... 
 Wipe/brick is best used on a post-it note on the back of the coldcard. 
 Oh, I didn't know there's the failed pin counter. That would be the main benefit imo.

In some scenario setups, it helps you relegate this semi-hot (easy to access) signer to the physically inaccessible seed sources (at different locations). 
 GM ☕

nostr:nevent1qqsx4473nayp8x04y896cx40sfu9u27mwxrkv4x3xlfhc9v0hzka8cqpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsygy8z2ekn6gx5wf97cqqps9fcyk720pzna4kpmngdyk5kuuyqcj6lypsgqqqqqqs0sptm0 
 Beautiful. 

Yesterday I was walking through the forest, a bit lost. I opened my phone (GrapheneO... 
 Homage to all the handyman dads and grandpas 🙌

nostr:nevent1qqsp277nrvqerq8mpuuqz99vmt0ulcxxxl98p85al2ccngu7h48tvdqpz9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7q3qm2mvvpjugwdehtaskrcl7ksvdqnnhnjur9v6g9v266nss504q7mqxpqqqqqqz9vw730 
 Gonna be with family for the election.

My 101 yr old Grandma and I are voting for Trump and the ... 
 Lean into satire and jokes and have fun with whole family. Single votes don't matter 🤷‍♂️ 
 Pristine nature always speaks so loud to you.


nostr:nevent1qqsdzdn72wjfvujw3gm6hu65z8mr98yc072dsyvwamancaqhzsvc7rcpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsygzsckdpev3n6zx458a5j06jp3446lmh52ay9erxdqq68cmxkzsz0cpsgqqqqqqsprzcgj 
 STOP! 

Reply to this note with a photo of a recent life moment that has brought you joy ♡ 
 What mountain is it? Looking great. 
 nostr:nprofile1qqsywt6ypu57lxtwj2scdwxnyrl3sry9typcstje65x7rw9a2e5nq8sprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwda... 
 Even if there is a greater shady play, the odds that the Dems wouldn't play on the same team are pretty minimal.

So the opportunity cost aren't too high.

If there's at least some nonzero level of honesty from the campaigns, then Trump seems better for my family 🤷‍♂️

Straightforward. 
 New grill test.

- Fan of the compact size & propane; obtained without paying the taxman
- Poor heat control; not tall enough for bigger pieces & scary blasting ignition

 https://image.nostr.build/6a726c436eb3e465bbbb2072c28690c3381794fb1065783461de648365f37a6a.jpg 
 I know I’ve gone really hard and deep on frustrations with the democrats. I’ve made my case t... 
 Is the America the Trump fans want actually a different America than yours, though? 
 If Kamala Harris wins the election, do you think they strong arm Biden into resigning/use the 25t... 
 There's gonna be plenty of other urgent heat to deal with if she gets proclaimed a winner. It wouldn't be a smooth sail to certify the results, taking Biden out in the middle of it wouldn't help anyone. 
 No point, IMO. Biden might be getting more and more senile and harder to deal with for them. But also offers a perfect cover for whatever they want to pass before the end of the term.

First Woman President title is more attractive to run for in a campaign, than it is to actually having one. 
 Ron Paul 👀
nostr:nevent1qqs0ldxws57kg2jw4h8ttyfmuhrfax7kkakt0tq7akhzq2686rp0xzqpz4mhxue69uhhye... 
 I'd rather see Thomas Massie getting some mandate. Ron Paul makes sense only as a hinoeary if they are actually committed to end the fed. 
 Přiznejte se, je tu někdo, kdo jste nechtěl být popelářem? 
Jen tedy mne podstatně více l... 
 Remember, remember.

nostr:nevent1qqsdlhjhqzuvzyrwzytk8jhfjaq5wmlgrykz0frkg48t058p9druu5qpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5hsyg866e2qere062sk5fwsmqkajhfm44ufp4p4695ssj9q5a7j3qaygupsgqqqqqqsvjx3cp 
 MSTR raising "More than all the money in the world" to buy few extra coin.

Luke Gromen already predicted this with the "need for repricing the hard assets higher"; usually talking about gold being repriced by BRICS. But who says that it can't happen this way 
 You set the price you want to see in the world. 
 He would fit right in on Nostr. 
 He will come.
In due course, he will come. 
 "More than all the money in the world"

- That's exactly what they said in the Weimar one day. And soon after, they paid it for a dozen of eggs.

nostr:nevent1qqsxvx9hm5gqnfrd7w0c4kq0uyeykte89uxzxe8twvm7nqaf2vlvuvcpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyq5eqnwpmscszkq6slxd9vhrthaq00ethtlzu8lw5wgfzml3xv53qqcyqqqqqqgthf38d 
 One week till the vote counting shitshow "surprisingly" reveals itself again.

Who's checking their prepping lists? 
 I will trust a random nostr internet fren's opinion or recommendation on any purchase before typi... 
 It is really hard to trust reviews on random items from random people (amazon, etc, ...). Most reviewers out there lack any incentive to provide honest (even negative) reviews.

Even at places where they have nothing to gain (google maps reviews), the average rating in the US is probably 4.7/5. Americans are much more hesitant to give negative reviews in general. 
 Won't they just censor you out of their playgrounds for coming from the unruly and unsafe nostr playground? 
 It’s starting 
 The daily election buzz provides a perfect cover.

Statists won't find out until at least the Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving 2025. 
 Re: Hunter's Laptop Story:
"The journalistic and editorial mistake that Twitter made in suppressing that story... was why the Russian propaganda was so effective in our country."

I would not expect such a bad take from any Bitcoiner. Disappointing.

Good for Peter for pushing back. But still, it was a waste of time, and I didn't finish listening to it. You either need to find better leftie advocates or admit that they are none... 
 Idk if exclusively, but he is for sure.

I guess it's naive to assume that it's a sufficient condition granting you some level of objectivity/empathy. I never really did, but I did assume that he's one able to have a conversation...

 
 The worst part of tech invading the car market? Now every review covers engine power, acceleratio... 
 Buses are more like cash in this metaphor.

We need to make the cars private, not revert to the buses.