My Say: Petronas and the dangers of fragmentation of our petroleum economy
==========

On Sept 16, 2024, Malaysia celebrated its 60th anniversary; on Oct 18, 2024, the Prime Minister presented Budget 2025. Malaysia's petroleum-related revenue is projected to decline from 41.3% in 2009 to 18.3% in 2025, impacting Petronas' dividends and income tax revenue. The petroleum economy constituted 7.9% of GDP in 2023. Petronas has contributed over RM1.2 trillion since inception until 2021, with significant investments in Sabah and Sarawak. Fragmentation of the oil and gas market poses risks to economic health and investment attraction. The article emphasizes the need for unity among states to support Petronas and warns against political divisions that threaten national cohesion and economic stability.

#Petronas #Malaysia #Economy #OilAndGas #Politics #Budget #Fragmentation #NationalUnity #Gdp #Investment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731808 

 The Week Ahead: Japan snap election, BoJ’s rate decision, 3Q corporate earnings in focus
==========

Japan will hold a snap general election on Oct 27, 2024; Bank of Japan (BoJ) to announce monetary policy on Oct 31, 2024; UOB expects no rate hike, while Bloomberg poll shows 56 economists predict BoJ will pause; Japan's unemployment rate for September and Consumer Confidence Index for October to be released; Malaysia's Supply Bill 2025 debate resumes with RM421 billion allocation; Corporate earnings season starts on Nov 1, 2024; US GDP advanced estimate expected at 3% for 3Q 2024; Federal Open Market Committee blackout period from Oct 26 to Nov 8; Kuala Lumpur High Court to deliver verdict on Najib Razak's case on Oct 30, 2024.

#Japan #Boj #Elections #CorporateEarnings #Gdp #Malaysia #EconomicData #Pmi #NajibRazak #Deepavali

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731718 

 Boeing exploring sale of its space business, WSJ reports
==========

Boeing is considering selling its space business, including the troubled Starliner spacecraft and operations supporting the International Space Station, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on October 25, 2024; Boeing's Starliner has faced over US$1.8 billion in cost overruns and development delays; two NASA astronauts remain stranded on the ISS, expected to return in February via SpaceX; Boeing is also facing labor actions from 33,000 workers affecting production of its 737 MAX, 767, and 777 jets; Boeing's shares rose 0.8% following the news.

#Boeing #SpaceBusiness #Starliner #Nasa #Spacex #Aerospace #LaborAction #737Max #CostOverruns #InternationalSpaceStation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731716 

 US core capital goods orders beat expectations in September
==========

US core capital goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% rise; August orders were revised to a 0.3% gain; core capital goods shipments fell by 0.3% after a 0.1% dip in August; non-defence capital goods orders dropped 4.5% in September following a 4.4% decline in August; business investment in equipment rose at a 9.8% annualized rate in Q2, contributing to a 3.0% GDP growth; growth estimates for Q3 are as high as 3.4%; advance estimate of Q3 GDP to be published next week.

#UsEconomy #CapitalGoods #BusinessInvestment #Gdp #EconomicGrowth #CommerceDepartment #September2024 #FinancialConditions #InterestRates #Manufacturing

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731699 

 IMF chief says world economy at risk of low-growth malaise, rising dissatisfaction
==========

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, warns of a low-growth, high-debt path threatening global economies; global GDP growth projected to decline to 3.1% by 2029; global government debt expected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024; dissatisfaction among populations rising despite some economic resilience; US presidential election on Nov 5 could shift policies; China's growth forecast cut to 4.8% for 2024; G20 finance chiefs optimistic about soft landing; Georgieva to assess Egypt's economic conditions in 10 days.

#Imf #KristalinaGeorgieva #GlobalEconomy #GdpGrowth #GovernmentDebt #UsElection #China #G20 #Egypt #EconomicForecast

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731576 

 BOJ chief says it is 'still taking time' to hit inflation goal
==========

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on October 23, 2024, that it is 'still taking time' to achieve the 2% inflation target sustainably; he emphasized the need for caution in raising interest rates, currently near zero; Ueda warned that slow rate increases could lead to speculative positions that may harm the yen; the BOJ ended negative rates in March 2024 and raised short-term rates to 0.25% in July 2024; underlying inflation in Japan has been around zero before 2022, rising due to global energy and food price increases; Ueda indicated the BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting, with most economists anticipating another rate hike by March 2025; he expressed concerns about determining the appropriate size and timing of future rate hikes.

#BankOfJapan #Inflation #InterestRates #KazuoUeda #EconomicPolicy #Japan #Imf #MonetaryPolicy #Speculation #GlobalEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731364 

 Tech stocks up in late trading as Tesla surges 9%
==========

On October 24, 2024, tech stocks rose in late trading, led by Tesla Inc. which surged 9% after reporting solid earnings and anticipating strong delivery volumes for the year. A $300 billion ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 gained post-market. Analysts, including David Laut from Abound Financial, expressed optimism about the earnings season, while Daniel Skelly from Morgan Stanley noted potential volatility due to upcoming events like the US election and Fed meetings. Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG warned of downside risks for equities, predicting an SPX pullback to the 5,500-5,650 range. Treasury yields rose to 4.23%, and concerns about the Fed's rate cuts were highlighted by Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. Tiffany Wilding from PIMCO cautioned against overreacting to rising bond yields, citing historical trends. Nicholas Colas from DataTrek Research remained bullish on US large caps despite challenges, while Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers noted the fragility of the equity market amid high valuations.

#TechStocks #Tesla #Earnings #MarketTrends #FederalReserve #BondYields #UsElection #Equities #Investing #FinancialAnalysis

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731359 

 Blackstone CEO says US to avoid recession regardless of election
==========

Steve Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, stated that the US is likely to avoid a recession irrespective of the presidential election outcome, citing strong economic conditions and stimulative policies from both candidates. He mentioned that the election, occurring in two weeks, is crucial for global markets. Schwarzman, who supports Donald Trump, noted that both candidates' policies could significantly impact businesses like Blackstone. He anticipates a favorable environment for deal-making as interest rates are expected to decline. Blackstone plans to introduce new investment products in Japan, where it has raised $1.4 billion from individual investors this year, and expects to invest $20 billion in Japan over the next three years.

#Blackstone #SteveSchwarzman #UsEconomy #Recession #PresidentialElection #Investment #Japan #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #PrivateEquity

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731277 

 Treasuries hold losses following global selloff
==========

Bonds maintained losses as US stocks struggled on October 23, 2024; traders are reconsidering the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid a robust US economy; Treasury 10-year yields reached 4.21%, the highest since July; Wall Street is reducing bets on aggressive policy easing; Citigroup strategists noted that S&P 500 exposure is at levels that preceded a 10% slump; Texas Instruments and Starbucks reported downbeat outlooks; Tokyo Metro Co. raised ¥348.6 billion ($2.3 billion) in Japan's largest IPO since 2018; the IMF warned of high uncertainty due to the upcoming US election; Fed officials signaled a preference for slower rate reductions; two-year yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Fed's first rate cut on September 18, 2024.

#Treasuries #FederalReserve #Stocks #Yields #UsEconomy #Ipo #MarketUncertainty #S&p500 #RateCuts #GlobalSelloff

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731189 

 US extends 25% semiconductor tax credit to chip and solar wafers
==========

The Biden administration finalized rules for a 25% tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing projects on October 22, 2024; the tax credit expands eligibility to companies producing wafers and chipmaking equipment; solar wafers are also included, aiming to boost domestic production; facilities producing polysilicon remain excluded; the Chips Act includes $39 billion in grant funding and $75 billion in loans; tax credits could cost over $85 billion, exceeding original estimates; Micron Technology Inc expects $11.3 billion in tax credits for two factories; Texas Instruments Inc anticipates $6 billion to $8 billion in tax credits; Hemlock Semiconductor LLC received a $325 million grant.

#Semiconductors #TaxCredit #BidenAdministration #ChipsAct #SolarWafers #Manufacturing #Investment #Polysilicon #MicronTechnology #TexasInstruments

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731168 

 T Rowe Price sees Treasury 10-year yields hitting 5% in six months
==========

T Rowe Price's chief investment officer of fixed-income, Arif Husain, predicts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 5% within six months, driven by rising inflation expectations and US fiscal spending concerns; currently, yields are at 4.08%; the last time yields hit 5% was in October 2023; T Rowe Price manages approximately US$180 billion in assets; the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in four years last month; ongoing Treasury issuance is flooding the market, while quantitative tightening by the Fed has reduced demand; Deutsche Bank predicts yields will touch 4.05% by September 2025; the US's debt interest-cost burden is at its highest since the 1990s; Husain suggests positioning for higher long-term Treasury yields as a near-term recession seems unlikely.

#TreasuryYields #TRowePrice #ArifHusain #FederalReserve #Inflation #UsEconomy #Debt #InterestRates #MarketPredictions #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730940 

 BOJ in no rush to hike in October, looking to move later — Bloomberg
==========

Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials see little need to raise interest rates in October 2024; inflation remains in line with forecasts; BOJ expected to maintain 0.25% benchmark rate at policy meeting ending Oct 31; potential for a third rate hike in December depends on uncertainty levels; officials to discuss revising July assessment on price risks; consumer prices rose 2.4% in September, marking 30th consecutive month above BOJ's target; BOJ will monitor US economy and upcoming election impacts.

#BankOfJapan #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #UsEconomy #FinancialMarkets #October2024 #ConsumerPrices #MonetaryPolicy #Forecasts

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730754 

 A US$500b pile of household debt weighs on new Thai leader
==========

Thailand's household debt exceeds US$500 billion, impacting economic growth; Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 38, took office in September 2024; household debt ratio at 90% of GDP, double emerging market average; debt relief package expected soon, involving banks and state bailout fund; World Bank's Kiatipong Ariyapruchya warns of economic suppression; debt growth linked to populist policies of Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra; suicide rate rose to 7.9 per 100,000, linked to debt issues; household debt per household projected to rise 8.4% to 606,378 baht (US$18,244); informal debt may add 10-20% to GDP; S&P Global Ratings warns of unsustainable household leverage.

#Thailand #HouseholdDebt #Economy #PaetongtarnShinawatra #ThaksinShinawatra #YingluckShinawatra #WorldBank #SuicideRate #DebtRelief #S&pGlobalRatings

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730667 

 Wall Street dials back Fed-cut bets on solid data
==========

Solid US retail sales in September exceeded forecasts, leading traders to reduce bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year; Treasury yields rose, with 10-year yields advancing seven basis points to 4.09%; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained little changed, while Dow Jones increased by 0.4%; Netflix Inc. saw a rise in subscribers; Travelers Cos. reported a profit tripling to $1.3 billion; Elevance Health Inc. fell 11% after cutting its annual outlook; Matthew Weller from Forex.com noted a narrow path for a Fed pause in November; Ellen Zentner from Morgan Stanley highlighted undeniable economic strength; Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index reached its highest since April; systematic funds are reducing equity exposure amid rising volatility ahead of the US Presidential Election.

#FederalReserve #RetailSales #TreasuryYields #S&p500 #EconomicData #InterestRates #Volatility #StockMarket #ConsumerSpending #Inflation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730653 

 McKinsey warns banks of ‘fleeting’ profit rebound as declining rates set to bite
==========

McKinsey & Co warns that higher profits for global banks over the last two years may be 'fleeting'; return on tangible equity (ROTE) rose to 11.7% in 2023, marking the best period for banking since before the global financial crisis; banks may need to cut costs at five times their usual rate to maintain profitability; US Federal Reserve cut benchmark rate by 0.5% in September 2024, first reduction in over four years; European Central Bank and Bank of England also lowering rates; net interest margins could drop by 16% by 2030; banks' share-price discount widened to 68% last year; McKinsey emphasizes the need for banks to adopt strategies of current leaders to avoid profitability decline.

#Banking #Profitability #InterestRates #Mckinsey #FinancialCrisis #Economy #UsFederalReserve #EuropeanCentralBank #BankOfEngland #MarketTrends

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730587 

 Southeast Asia’s central banks face duelling rate calls
==========

Three major Southeast Asian economies will announce monetary policy decisions on Oct 16, 2024, at 3pm Malaysian time; Bank Indonesia is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 6%, with 30 of 41 economists predicting no change; the Philippine central bank aims for a total of 175-basis-point cuts by the end of 2025, with inflation at a four-year low; Bank of Thailand is likely to maintain its rate at 2.5%, resisting government pressure for cuts; the Thai government is considering raising the 2025 inflation target; pressures include weak growth, currency volatility, and geopolitical risks.

#SoutheastAsia #CentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #BankIndonesia #Philippines #Thailand #GeopoliticalRisks

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730370 

 Fed’s Bostic says US employment and growth to stay robust
==========

Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, projects US GDP growth at about 2% in 2025 and 2.6% for 2024; he expects inflation to be choppy while employment remains robust; the Fed's benchmark rate is currently 4.75%-5% and may drop to 3%-3.5% in the long run; borrowing costs were lowered by 0.5% last month; Bostic is open to steady rates in upcoming meetings depending on economic data.

#FederalReserve #UsEconomy #Inflation #Employment #GdpGrowth #InterestRates #Bostic #EconomicOutlook #Atlanta #FinancialPolicy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730364 

 US consumer delinquency fears highest since 2020 in Fed survey
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Perceptions of potential delinquency on debts among US households rose to 14.2% in September 2024, the highest since April 2020; this marks the fourth consecutive month of increases, particularly among middle-aged respondents; the survey indicates a growing divide in the US economy, with some households thriving while others struggle; fewer consumers reported being better off compared to a year ago; however, there is a more optimistic outlook for the coming year regarding financial situations and credit access; inflation expectations remained stable, with anticipated gasoline prices rising by 3.4% over the next year.

#ConsumerDebt #Delinquency #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook #Inflation #Survey #UsEconomy #FinancialSituation #Households #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730351 

 US consumer delinquency fears highest since 2020 in Fed survey
==========

Perceptions of potential delinquency on debts among US households rose to 14.2% in September 2024, the highest since April 2020; this marks the fourth consecutive month of increases, particularly among middle-aged respondents; the survey indicates a growing divide in the US economy, with some households thriving while others struggle; fewer consumers reported being better off compared to a year ago; however, there is a more optimistic outlook for the coming year regarding financial situations and credit access; inflation expectations remained stable, with anticipated gasoline prices rising by 3.4% over the next year.

#ConsumerDebt #Delinquency #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook #Inflation #Survey #UsEconomy #FinancialSituation #Households #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730351 

 Fed’s Kashkari says private credit may lessen systemic risk
==========

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that the rise of the private credit market could reduce systemic risk in the US financial system. He noted that private credit, which has grown to over a trillion dollars, is typically levered one to one, compared to US banks which are levered about 10 to one. Kashkari expressed cautious optimism about private credit's potential to introduce less risk due to longer capital lock-in periods. He acknowledged the lack of political will for increasing bank capital requirements and highlighted the need for tighter regulation on banks. The private credit market is currently valued at approximately $1.7 trillion, with regulators increasing scrutiny over the industry.

#FederalReserve #NeelKashkari #PrivateCredit #SystemicRisk #FinancialRegulation #UsEconomy #Banking #Investments #FinancialMarkets #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730224 

 My Say: It’s too soon to say China has peaked
==========

China's economy could still surpass the US by 2050 if proper policies are implemented; arguments of 'peak China' are being revisited due to recent economic struggles; China's population is declining faster than expected, with projections of 1.3 billion by 2050; investment has historically accounted for 45%-50% of GDP, leading to excess capacity; trade restrictions from the US and other nations are increasing; China's productivity growth has been weak, but reforms are underway; the renminbi is expected to appreciate against the US dollar; China could grow at 3% annually until 2050, outpacing the US's growth; assumptions include necessary reforms and avoidance of military conflict with the US.

#China #Economy #Us #Growth #Demographics #Trade #Currency #Reforms #Productivity #Geopolitics

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730045 

 Harris targets Black men with new economic proposals
==========

Kamala Harris unveiled new economic proposals on Oct 14, 2024, aimed at Black men, including forgivable small business loans of up to US$20,000 for underserved communities and plans to legalize recreational marijuana. The proposals also focus on boosting access to cryptocurrency and launching a health equity initiative for Black men addressing diseases like sickle cell. Concerns about Black male voter turnout on Nov 5 have been raised, with a September NAACP poll indicating over a quarter of young Black men may support Donald Trump. Harris's campaign seeks to emphasize the broader benefits of these proposals for all men. She is expected to discuss these policies further during an interview with Charlamagne tha God and while traveling to Erie County, Pennsylvania.

#KamalaHarris #BlackMen #EconomicProposals #RecreationalMarijuana #SmallBusinessLoans #Cryptocurrency #HealthEquity #VoterTurnout #2024Election #Naacp

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730114 

 Navigating a potentially volatile October
==========

October is historically the most volatile month for stock markets; analysis shows highest standard deviation (SD) in index price movements for S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, FTSE 100, and FBM KLCI since 1980; geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may increase volatility; Iran fired missiles at Israel on Oct 9, 2024; FBM KLCI's average SD in October is 8.96, compared to 6.1 for the entire year; US Federal Reserve cut policy rate by 50 bps on Sept 18, 2024; US non-farm payroll data released on Oct 4, 2024, could impact market sentiment; Budget 2025 to be tabled on Oct 18, 2024; ringgit appreciated nearly 10% in 2024; 3Q2024 GDP data to be released on Nov 15, 2024; October has historically shown a 73.5% probability of month-on-month gains since 1990; MIDF Research reports net buying by foreign funds correlates with ringgit strength; investors advised to be selective in stock choices; top picks include banking stocks and REITs.

#StockMarket #Volatility #Investment #October #Malaysia #Geopolitics #UsFederalReserve #Ringgit #Gdp #Budget2025

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729396 

 Asian investors wary as China’s Finance Ministry weekend briefing underwhelms
==========

Asian markets are cautious following China's Finance Ministry briefing; Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised support for the property sector but lacked specific monetary figures; China's factory-gate prices fell for the 24th month; S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday; Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped against the US dollar; investors disappointed by lack of concrete stimulus; CSI 300 Index saw its largest weekly loss since July; US dollar mixed against peers; key economic data expected this week including China GDP and retail sales; significant market moves include Bitcoin rising to $62,984.22 and gold falling to $2,647.21 per ounce.

#China #Finance #Investors #Market #Economy #Stimulus #Property #S&p500 #Gold #Oil

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730011 

 The Week Ahead: Attention on Budget 2025, China data and major economies’ monetary policies
==========

Budget 2025 to be tabled by Malaysian PM on Oct 14, 2024; economists expect expansionary budget despite projected fiscal deficit reduction to 3.8% of GDP in 2025; UOB forecasts GDP growth of 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025; Malaysia's external trade data for September expected on Oct 14; China to hold fiscal policy briefing on Oct 12; 3Q GDP report and macro data including CPI and PPI to be released on Oct 13; Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee to deliver policy address on Oct 16; Monetary Authority of Singapore to release Monetary Policy Statement on Oct 14; regional central banks including BoT, BSP, and BI to announce monetary policy decisions; US 3Q earnings season to accelerate with 462 firms reporting; key data releases in Europe and Japan scheduled.

#Budget2025 #China #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #Gdp #Cpi #Ppi #EarningsSeason #Malaysia #Singapore

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729949 

 China economic spillovers to Asia hinge on property, Nomura says
==========

China's economic spillovers to Asia have weakened; Nomura Holdings Inc analysis indicates Asian economies' exports to China are more sensitive to property construction and retail consumption than infrastructure investments; Beijing expected to announce up to 2 trillion yuan (US$283 billion) in fiscal stimulus; Australia and Singapore most exposed to China's growth; Philippines and India least exposed; Taiwan and South Korea have decoupled somewhat; tourist arrivals from China have fallen across Asia, except Hong Kong.

#China #Asia #Economy #Nomura #FiscalStimulus #Property #Exports #Investment #Biodiversity #Esg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729892 

 Fed vice-chair says risks to inflation, employment now balanced
==========

Fed vice-chair Philip Jefferson stated that risks to inflation and employment are now balanced; Jefferson's remarks were made on October 9, 2024, at Davidson College, North Carolina; he noted that inflation risks have diminished while employment risks have risen; the Fed lowered interest rates by 0.5 percentage points last month for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic; forecasts indicate an additional 50 basis points reduction this year; September jobs report showed 254,000 jobs added, lowering unemployment to 4.1%; Jefferson emphasized the economy is growing solidly despite a cooling labor market; he mentioned the importance of the discount window for banks following recent bank collapses; Jefferson joined the Fed in 2022 after serving at Davidson College.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #Employment #InterestRates #PhilipJefferson #JobsReport #EconomicGrowth #DiscountWindow #NorthCarolina #2024

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729527 

 Alternative Views: Why the ringgit’s appreciation is losing its momentum for now
==========

For the first time since 2007, Malaysia's foreign currency account (FCA) deposits dropped by RM11 billion to RM246 billion in August 2024; FCA deposits had previously risen consistently, with a historical low of RM21.4 billion in January 2007 and a peak of RM247 billion in January 2024; the decline is attributed to exporters potentially converting more proceeds into ringgit due to a weakening US dollar; Bank Negara Malaysia is encouraging this conversion with assurances of easy approvals; the US dollar's weakness is linked to a slowing US economy and recent Federal Reserve rate cuts; the ringgit has appreciated nearly 10% against the US dollar this year; Malaysia's economy grew by 5.9% in Q2 2024, with exports increasing by 8.4%; concerns exist that continued appreciation of the ringgit could negatively impact the export-driven economy; predictions suggest the ringgit may reach RM3.55 against the US dollar by the end of next year; Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is noted for fostering good international relations and attracting foreign investments.

#Ringgit #Malaysia #ForeignCurrencyAccount #BankNegara #UsDollar #Economy #Exports #AnwarIbrahim #InterestRates #ForeignInvestment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729206 

 US consumer borrowing growth slows on drop in revolving credit
==========

US consumer borrowing increased by US$8.9 billion in August 2024; this is a slowdown from a revised US$26.6 billion increase in July 2024, the largest since October 2022; economists had estimated a US$12 billion increase; revolving debt, including credit cards, decreased by nearly US$1.4 billion; non-revolving credit, such as vehicle and tuition loans, rose by US$10.3 billion; credit card borrowing rates reached a record 23.37% in August; a 60-month vehicle loan from a commercial bank rose to 8.4%; the share of consumer debt in delinquency held at 3.2% in Q2 2024; the decline in revolving debt indicates consumers are reducing high-interest credit card balances.

#ConsumerBorrowing #CreditCards #FederalReserve #Debt #InterestRates #Economy #August2024 #FinancialReport #Delinquency #NonrevolvingCredit

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729381 

 US stocks hit by tech rout as war jitters lift oil
==========

US stocks fell due to a selloff in major tech companies; S&P 500 dropped 1% after four weeks of gains; Alphabet Inc. down 2.4% following a judge's ruling on Google Play Store; Brent crude oil surpassed $80 per barrel amid Middle East tensions; 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.02%; strong jobs report diminished chances of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November; Amazon.com Inc. fell 3.1% after Wells Fargo downgrade; Apple Inc. down 2.3% due to overly optimistic iPhone expectations; Wall Street strategists remain optimistic about economic resilience; Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson raised cyclical stocks outlook; Goldman Sachs' David Kostin increased S&P 12-month target from 6,000 to 6,300; upcoming earnings season expected to be significant; Delta Air Lines to report on travel demand; activist investor Starboard Value takes $1 billion stake in Pfizer; Chevron sells assets for $6.5 billion; Apollo Global Management to acquire Barnes Group for $3.6 billion; Rivus Pharmaceuticals considering IPO in 2024.

#UsStocks #Technology #OilPrices #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #Geopolitics #EconomicOutlook #Investments #MarketAnalysis #CorporateNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729353 

 US yields back at 4% for first time since August on Fed rethink
==========

US Treasury yields reached 4% for the first time since August 1, 2024, following strong September payrolls data; 10-year yield rose to 4.03%, two-year yield jumped to 4.02%; market expectations shifted away from a half-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve; Goldman Sachs strategists noted the strength of the jobs report may have accelerated discussions on policy restrictions; Citigroup expects a quarter-point cut in November; shorter-dated yields rose faster than longer maturities, inverting the yield curve; European bonds also fell, with German 10-year yield at 2.25% and UK equivalent at 4.19%; upcoming Fed speeches and US inflation data are anticipated.

#UsTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Yields #EmploymentData #EconomicPolicy #BondMarket #Inflation #FinancialNews #WallStreet

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729348 

 US inflation is set to reassure a labour market-focused Fed
==========

US inflation is expected to rise 0.1% in September 2024, the smallest gain in three months; CPI likely rose 2.3% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive slowdown; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI report on October 10, 2024; core CPI projected to increase 0.2% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year; Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of 2024; Neel Kashkari, Alberto Musalem, Adriana Kugler, Raphael Bostic, and Lorie Logan are among Fed officials speaking next week; Canada will release its final jobs report before the Bank of Canada rate decision; Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut rates by 0.5% to 4.75% on October 9, 2024; Bank of Korea likely to trim its rate by 0.25% on October 11, 2024; inflation in Egypt was 26% in September; Kenya's monetary policy committee expected to reduce its key rate to 12.25% on October 8, 2024.

#UsInflation #FederalReserve #Cpi #InterestRates #EconomicPolicy #GlobalCentralBanks #JobMarket #MonetaryPolicy #Canada #Asia

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729159 

 Real World Economics: Economics, Empathy, and the US Election
==========

The November 2024 US presidential election will significantly impact global democracies and geopolitical issues; economic fallout from US policy missteps could lead to trade wars, inflation, and unemployment; both Democratic and Republican policies may increase the federal deficit, with Kamala Harris's policies projected to raise it by $1.2 trillion by 2034 and Donald Trump's by $5.8 trillion; inflation peaked in June 2022 but has since fallen, leading to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut; Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, which could harm US competitiveness; outsourcing is framed as a labor-versus-capital issue, with Trump’s tax cuts for corporations counterproductive; Argentina's historical economic stagnation serves as a warning against Trump's policies; the need for empathetic leadership is emphasized, contrasting Trump’s rhetoric with the ideal of a caring president.

#UsElection #Economics #Inflation #Deficit #Trump #Harris #Policy #Outsourcing #Geopolitics #Leadership

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728461 

 US expected to report moderate September job growth
==========

The US economy likely maintained a moderate pace of job growth in September; unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%; Hurricane Helene caused turbulence in the labor market; Boeing strike involved 45,000 machinists; dockworkers' strike ended with a tentative deal; nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 140,000 jobs in September; August payrolls revised higher; employment gains led by healthcare and government sectors; average hourly earnings forecasted to increase by 0.3%; unemployment rate influenced by school year; economists estimate 200,000 jobs needed monthly to keep pace with working-age population growth; Goldman Sachs noted potential slowdown in labor demand.

#UsEconomy #JobGrowth #Unemployment #BoeingStrike #HurricaneHelene #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #WageGrowth #EconomicForecast #Employment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729044