Fed survey finds inflation fading as a risk next to debt, trade wars
==========

The Federal Reserve survey indicates that financial professionals are more concerned about rising US debt, potential recession, and global trade risks than inflation following Donald Trump's election on Nov 5, 2024. The survey highlights US fiscal debt sustainability as the top risk, with increased Treasury issuance potentially crowding out private investment. Bond market behavior shows rising yields on 10-year Treasury notes despite recent Fed rate cuts. Concerns about global trade barriers and their impact on inflation and economic activity have also increased. Inflation, previously the top risk, has fallen to sixth place in the current survey. The survey was conducted from August to October 2024 among financial sector participants. Trump's anticipated tax cuts and tariffs may exacerbate inflation and federal deficits. The financial system appears solid but faces pressures, with rising delinquency on some loans and concerns about elevated asset values and stablecoins.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #Debt #TradeWars #Trump #FinancialStability #BondMarket #Treasury #Economy #Survey

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/735148


Roads To Prosperity:  Middle powers will make a multipolar world
==========

China's rise challenges US hegemony; US enjoyed economic primacy since Soviet Union's collapse; middle powers include India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria; their combined GDP exceeds US GDP and projected to grow by 50% by 2029; middle powers reject alignment with US or China; driven closer to China due to US policies; leaders refuse to be pawns in a new cold war; Brazil proposes global wealth tax during G20 presidency; BRICS expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE; hegemonic stability theory suggests a supervening power is needed for global economy; current major economies fail to provide necessary global public goods; middle powers can demonstrate feasibility of multipolarity; Dani Rodrik is a Professor at Harvard Kennedy School.

#MiddlePowers #Multipolarity #GlobalEconomy #China #Us #Brics #Trade #Development #ClimateChange #PublicGoods

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734336


US weekly jobless claims hit seven-month low
==========

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to 213,000 for the week ended Nov 16, the lowest since April; unemployment rolls increased to levels last seen in late 2021; economists estimated strikes and storms subtracted 100,000 to 125,000 jobs from payrolls in October; nonfarm payrolls increased by only 12,000 jobs in October; the Federal Reserve may consider a third interest rate cut next month; Carl Weinberg stated there is no sign of recession; the Boeing strike ended early November; the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.50%-4.75%; the data covered the period for November's employment report.

#JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #EconomicData #BoeingStrike #Hurricanes #EmploymentReport #InterestRates #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734963


Trump administration plans to roll back Biden's stricter fuel-efficiency standards
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President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration plans to roll back fuel-efficiency standards set by President Joe Biden; this move aims to fulfill a campaign promise to 'end the EV mandate'; Biden's regulations require automakers to produce at least 35% electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032; Trump administration expected to direct the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to reconsider Biden's regulations; Trump's transition team plans to eliminate the US$7,500 consumer tax credit for EV purchases; during Trump's first term, it took nearly three years to overturn Obama-era regulations; automakers have lobbied for less stringent rules, claiming Biden's regulations are too onerous; Tesla, led by Elon Musk, could be negatively impacted as it profits from selling regulatory credits; analysts suggest Tesla's reliance on credit sales has decreased as the company has become profitable; the article was published on November 20, 2024.

#Trump #Biden #Fuelefficiency #ElectricVehicles #Tesla #Regulations #Automakers #Transition #Epa #Nhtsa

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734602


Copper inches higher as dollar rally pauses; China demand woes weigh on market
==========

Copper prices rose 0.5% to US$9,114.50 per metric tonne on the LME; December copper contract on SHFE increased 0.6% to 74,250 yuan; US dollar pulled back after reaching a one-year high; concerns over China's slowing economic growth and potential US tariffs weigh on market; Trump plans to impose tariffs over 60% on Chinese imports; Ed Meir predicts LME copper prices to range between US$8,900 and US$9,200 in the next six weeks; downside forecast for next year at US$8,000 and upside at US$10,500; China to reduce or cancel export tax rebates for aluminium and copper products.

#Copper #Market #China #UsTariffs #Economy #Lme #Shfe #Aluminium #Nickel #Zinc

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734451


Brookfield’s BofA Tower in LA sees 69% decline in appraised value
==========

Brookfield’s BofA Tower in LA appraised at US$188.9 million, down from US$605 million 10 years ago; represents a 69% decline; US office values fell 53% from March 2022 to September 2024; downtown LA office availability rate at 38% in Q3 2024; US office CMBS delinquency rate rose to 9.3% in October 2024; BofA Plaza has US$400 million in commercial mortgage-backed security debt; loan matured on Sept 1, 2024; 79% leased as of July 2024; Brookfield DTLA portfolio has defaulted on US$2.2 billion in debt; Gas Company Tower sold for up to US$200 million; Brookfield Corp president Nick Goodman noted US$30 billion in financings executed recently.

#Brookfield #BofaTower #AppraisedValue #CommercialRealEstate #LosAngeles #OfficeMarket #VacancyRates #Debt #FinancialNews #Msci

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734438


Musk's political ascendancy stirs hopes of redemption for X banks
==========

Elon Musk's political rise is raising hopes for Wall Street banks to offload US$13 billion of debt linked to his purchase of X (formerly Twitter); banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are optimistic that Musk's ties to President-elect Donald Trump could enhance X's prospects; Musk acquired X for US$44 billion in 2022; X's web traffic peaked at 46.5 million visits the day after the US elections; however, 115,000 users deactivated their accounts on Nov 6, 2024; banks have marked down the debt's value and are considering options after X reports its finances next month.

#ElonMusk #X #Debt #WallStreet #Trump #SocialMedia #Finance #Banks #Advertising #WebTraffic

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734212


US October industrial production falls on strike, hurricane disruptions
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US industrial production declined by 0.3% in October 2024; Boeing workers' 53-day strike reduced industrial production by 0.5 percentage points in September and October; manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in October after a 0.3% drop in September; aerospace equipment output plunged 5.8% in October following an 8% decline in September; Hurricanes Milton and Helene contributed to a 0.1 percentage point reduction in October production; Boeing delivered only 14 jetliners in October, the lowest in nearly four years; elevated borrowing costs and a pause in capital spending hinder US manufacturing growth.

#IndustrialProduction #Boeing #Hurricanes #Manufacturing #EconomicDecline #LaborStrike #Aerospace #FederalReserve #UsEconomy #October2024

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734194


Casinos may lead Philippines IPO revival in 2025, top bank says
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Philippine casinos Okada Manila and Hann Casino Resort may revive IPO plans in 2025, targeting to raise around US$200 million each; BDO Capital's Gabriel Lim and Eduardo Francisco discuss potential market recovery; Philippine shares in technical correction due to economic growth concerns and US election uncertainties; only three companies listed in 2024, missing IPO targets; BDO's stock index estimate revised amid global uncertainties; optimism remains for the consumption-driven economy despite challenges.

#Philippines #Ipo #Casinos #StockMarket #BdoCapital #OkadaManila #HannCasino #EconomicGrowth #Investments #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734085


Japan's economy slows in 3Q on tepid capex; consumption picks up
==========

Japan's economy expanded by an annualised 0.9% in Q3 2024, slowing from 2.2% in Q2; private consumption rose 0.9%, exceeding the 0.2% estimate; capital spending fell 0.2%; net external demand reduced growth by 0.4 points; economist Kengo Tanahashi noted the consumption increase was surprising; Bank of Japan maintains ultra-low rates; risks from US economy and potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump could impact exports.

#Japan #Economy #Gdp #Consumption #CapitalSpending #Exports #BankOfJapan #EconomicGrowth #KengoTanahashi #DonaldTrump

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734078


US mortgage rates rose again in week after Trump’s victory
==========

US mortgage rates increased following Donald Trump's presidential election victory; 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose five basis points to 6.86% for the week ending Nov 8, 2024; this marks a 72 basis point increase over six weeks, the largest in two years; mortgage rates are influenced by treasury yields, affecting Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions; MBA's refinancing gauge fell for the seventh consecutive week, while home purchase applications saw a slight increase; MBA survey covers over 75% of US retail residential mortgage applications.

#MortgageRates #Trump #Economy #Inflation #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #Refinancing #InterestRates #RealEstate #Usa

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733924


Senate GOP elects Thune as leader, rejecting Musk’s pick
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John Thune, 63, elected as Republican Senate majority leader on November 14, 2024; defeated Rick Scott, backed by Elon Musk, and John Cornyn; Mitch McConnell steps down after 18 years; Thune aims to reset relationship with President-elect Donald Trump; Thune supports free trade and Ukraine aid, opposing Trump's tariffs; Thune has served 20 years in the Senate since defeating Tom Daschle in 2004; he will preserve the Senate's filibuster rule; Thune is a leading advocate for repealing the estate tax; Trump expressed support for Thune on Truth Social.

#Senate #Republican #Thune #Trump #Musk #Leadership #Politics #FreeTrade #Ukraine #Filibuster

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733887


Republican sweep gives Trump power to slash taxes, may strain deficits
==========

Republicans' control in Washington allows President-elect Donald Trump to pursue tax cuts for businesses, workers, and retirees; Trump's early priorities include extending 2017 tax cuts, funding the U.S.-Mexico border wall, cutting unspent funds, eliminating the Department of Education, and curbing agency powers; U.S. national debt stands at $35 trillion with a deficit of $1.83 trillion in fiscal 2024; 62% of Americans believe Trump's policies will increase national debt; Republicans may use budget reconciliation to pass tax cuts; Trump's proposed tax cuts could add $7.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade; Senator Ron Johnson emphasizes the need for spending cuts to offset tax cuts; first test for Congress expected in January 2025; Mitch McConnell optimistic about narrow majority success.

#Trump #Republicans #TaxCuts #NationalDebt #Congress #BudgetReconciliation #FiscalPolicy #2024Election #GovernmentSpending #Senate

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733885


Bitcoin rally cools after more than 30% jump since Trump victory
==========

Bitcoin's price surged by approximately 31% following Donald Trump's election victory on November 5, 2024, reaching a record high of US$89,968 on November 12, 2024. As of November 13, 2024, it was trading at US$87,940. Trump has promised a supportive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and plans to establish the US as a global crypto hub. Despite the optimism, analysts caution that significant gains may already be priced in. Dogecoin, influenced by Elon Musk, also saw a price increase, doubling in value recently. Market analysts note that upcoming US inflation data could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, affecting riskier investments like crypto.

#Bitcoin #Trump #Cryptocurrency #Dogecoin #MarketAnalysis #UsElections #Inflation #Investments #CryptoRegulation #ElonMusk

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733783


Trump picks Musk, entrepreneur Ramaswamy for govt efficiency effort
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President-elect Donald Trump announced on November 13, 2024, that billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new Department of Government Efficiency. The department aims to dismantle bureaucracy, cut regulations, and restructure federal agencies, with a completion deadline of July 4, 2026. Musk claims he could cut at least US$2 trillion from the federal budget, which exceeds annual government agency spending. Last fiscal year, the government spent over US$6.75 trillion, with significant portions allocated to Social Security and healthcare. Ramaswamy, who previously ran for the GOP nomination, has been a strong supporter of Trump and shares similar policy views. Trump praised Ramaswamy's capabilities and considered him for a Cabinet position.

#Trump #Musk #Ramaswamy #GovernmentEfficiency #BudgetCuts #FederalAgencies #UsPolitics #2024Election #DepartmentOfGovernmentEfficiency #EntitlementPrograms

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733764


IMF holds unusual talks with Pakistan over US$7b bailout
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IMF mission chief Nathan Porter initiated talks with Pakistan on November 12, 2024, regarding a US$7 billion bailout approved in September. The discussions are considered unusual as they occur before the first review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) scheduled for Q1 2025. Key officials, including the heads of Pakistan's central bank and federal board of revenue, participated in the meeting. The agenda includes assessing Pakistan's fiscal deficit, which has a revenue shortfall of nearly 190 billion rupees (US$685 million) for the current fiscal year. An external financing gap of US$2.5 billion needed until June 30, 2025, and issues related to the privatization of state-owned enterprises were also on the table. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb confirmed that all rollovers of loans from friendly nations have been assured.

#Imf #Pakistan #Bailout #Finance #Economy #Loans #FiscalDeficit #Negotiations #ExtendedFundFacility #StateownedEnterprises

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733645


Gold hovers near one-month low ahead of US data, Fed speakers
==========

Gold prices are near a one-month low at US$2,622.89 per ounce as of Nov 12, 2024; US dollar is near a four-month high, impacting gold's attractiveness; Market awaits US economic data including October Consumer Price Index on Nov 13, Producer Price Index and jobless claims on Nov 14, and retail sales on Nov 15; Fed officials, including chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week; Trump's election victory has raised inflation concerns, affecting gold prices; Fed lowered benchmark rate by 25 bps on Nov 7, with a 66% chance of another cut in December.

#Gold #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #MarketAnalysis #PreciousMetals #EconomicData #DonaldTrump #Investors

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733583


China nears record US$1 tril trade surplus as Trump returns
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China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly US$1 trillion in 2024; surplus hit US$785 billion in first 10 months, up 16% from 2023; Brad Setser notes significant export volume growth; reliance on exports increases due to weak domestic demand; foreign direct investment liabilities dropped, risking first annual net outflow since 1990; US tariffs expected under Trump administration; surplus with US rose 4.4%, EU by 9.6%, and ASEAN by 36%; trade surplus with India reached US$85 billion, up 3% from 2023; currency war concerns as India may let rupee weaken.

#China #TradeSurplus #Trump #Economy #Exports #Imports #Fdi #Tariffs #CurrencyWar #Asean

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733471


UK's Reeves to tout benefits of free trade amid fears of US tariffs
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UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver a keynote speech on November 14, 2024, at the Mansion House, promoting free trade and economic growth while addressing concerns over potential US tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. Reeves emphasizes the importance of free and open trade for national wealth, warning against Trump's proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports. She aims to foster partnerships with the financial services sector and reform pensions to unlock investments. The UK-US trade relationship, valued at over £300 million (US$387 million) annually, is crucial, but Trump's protectionist policies may complicate it. Reeves faces pressure from over 200 hospitality sector leaders regarding tax increases, which they argue could lead to job cuts and business closures. She will advocate for long-term stability through tough tax choices despite forecasts of modest economic growth amid a £40 billion tax rise.

#Uk #FreeTrade #UsTariffs #RachelReeves #DonaldTrump #EconomicGrowth #LabourParty #TaxPolicy #FinancialServices #HospitalitySector

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733422


Alternative Views: Trump has won but it’s not all gloom and doom for Malaysia
==========

Malaysia's trade-to-GDP ratio historically exceeds 100%; US is more crucial to Malaysia's economy than China; Malaysia is a net exporter to the US, with E&E industry making up 40% of total exports; exports to the US rose from RM98 billion to RM156 billion (50% increase) post-COVID-19; exports to China increased from RM146 billion to RM198 billion (less than 35% increase); Trump plans to impose tariffs of 60% on China imports and 20% on others; potential trade war could impact Malaysia's exports; Fed cut rates to 4.5%-4.75% to stabilize the economy; Trump's policies may conflict with Fed's inflation goals; Malaysia must adapt to potential trade war dynamics.

#Trump #Malaysia #Economy #Trade #Exports #E&eIndustry #Tariffs #Fed #China #Gdp

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733404


America’s gig economy workforce holds steady around 10%
==========

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report published on November 8, 2024, shows that approximately 15.5 million people, or 10.2% of the American labor force, are employed in the gig economy. This percentage has remained stable since pre-pandemic levels, with the last report in May 2017 indicating a 10.1% share. The report is based on a special supplement to the Current Population Survey for July 2023. The largest category of gig workers are independent contractors, who tend to be older. Young Americans aged 16 to 24 are four times more likely to have contingent jobs than those aged 25 to 54, with 12.9% of younger workers in gig roles compared to 3.1% of prime-age workers. The preference for permanent jobs among contingent workers has decreased to 45% from over 50% since 2017. The BLS plans to release future estimates on digital platform employment.

#GigEconomy #LaborStatistics #BureauOfLaborStatistics #Employment #IndependentContractors #YouthEmployment #ContingentJobs #UsLaborForce #2023Survey #EconomicTrends

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733323


China unveils US$1.4 tril debt swap to help local govts
==========

China announced a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt on November 8, 2024; local governments' debt ceiling raised to 35.52 trillion yuan; six trillion yuan in additional special bonds to be issued over three years; four trillion yuan in new special local bond quota over five years; Finance Minister Lan Fo’an stated the swap could save 600 billion yuan in interest payments; outstanding hidden debt was 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023; China's economy grew 4.6% in Q3 2024, the weakest since March; policymakers pivoting towards supportive policies due to economic slowdown; initial signs of improvement in home sales and manufacturing sectors.

#China #DebtSwap #LocalGovernment #Economy #Finance #LanFo’an #SpecialBonds #HiddenDebt #EconomicGrowth #Trump

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733248


Fed to cut rates, but with a new landscape to decipher after Trump win
==========

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark policy rate by 0.25% on Nov 9, 2024, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%; Donald Trump won the US election on Nov 5, 2024, potentially leading to GOP control of Congress; Trump's policies may impact economic growth, inflation, and federal deficits; Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term runs through May 2026; market confidence in future rate cuts has weakened, with expectations of a rate ending between 3.75% and 4% by mid-2025; Fed officials state they do not set policy based on administration proposals but respond to economic outcomes.

#FederalReserve #Trump #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #Congress #Policy #2024Election #JeromePowell #EconomicGrowth

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733157


US mortgage rates rise again, with recent jump most in two years
==========

US mortgage rates increased by eight basis points to 6.81% for the week ending Nov 1, 2024; this is the highest rate since July 2024; rates have risen 67bps over the last five weeks, marking the largest increase in two years; the rise in mortgage rates is linked to increasing Treasury yields and speculation around Donald Trump's presidential election victory; MBA's refinancing gauge dropped for the sixth consecutive week, the longest streak since April 2022; the purchase index is at its lowest since August 2024; the MBA survey covers over 75% of US retail residential mortgage applications.

#MortgageRates #UsEconomy #Refinancing #Trump #InterestRates #Mba #TreasuryYields #Homebuying #EconomicData #RealEstate

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733004


Tech pushes stocks higher with vote in full swing
==========

On November 6, 2024, stocks rose with the S&P 500 up 1.2% and the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks climbing 1.8%; Palantir Technologies reported strong demand for AI, and Nvidia became the world's largest company, surpassing Apple; markets were calm ahead of the US presidential election, with polls indicating a dead heat; Goldman Sachs noted an 18% chance of a bear market in the next year; volatility is expected post-election, with a 1.8% potential move in the S&P 500 on November 7; the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision is awaited on November 8.

#Stocks #Election #Technology #MarketVolatility #Nvidia #Palantir #S&p500 #GoldmanSachs #FederalReserve #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732885


KPMG to lay off 4% of US audit workforce, source says
==========

KPMG will lay off 4% of its US audit workforce, approximately 330 employees, as reported on November 4, 2024; this decision is part of KPMG's strategy to align workforce size and skills with market demands; the firm has previously announced layoffs affecting 5% of US employees in June 2023 due to economic challenges; KPMG operates in over 143 countries with more than 273,000 employees.

#Kpmg #Layoffs #AuditWorkforce #Us #BigFour #Employment #EconomicChallenges #WorkforceStrategy #Attrition #JobCuts

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732734


Trump or Harris win will impact market differently, say analysts
==========

Equity analysts are divided on the impact of the US presidential election on markets; Trump proposes tariffs of up to 20% on imports and 60% on China goods, while Harris plans to raise corporate tax from 21% to 28% and capital gains tax for high earners; analysts believe a Trump win could boost markets, citing past performance post-2016 election; Harris' victory may lead to short-term market pullback; FBM KLCI was up 11.03% year-to-date at 1,615.06 points; analysts maintain year-end targets for FBMKLCI at 1,750 and 1,690; Rakuten Trade raised its target to 1,780; IMF projects global growth at 3.2% for 2024; market sentiment remains cautious ahead of election.

#UsElection #MarketImpact #Trump #Harris #EquityAnalysts #BursaMalaysia #CorporateTax #Imf #FbmKlci #Investors

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732567


Rock-steady rupee offers stability during US election uncertainty
==========

The Indian rupee is stable amid US election volatility; supported by RBI's strong foreign exchange reserves; no clear leader in US presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump; hedging costs at highest since early 2020; RBI sold US$10.8 billion to defend rupee; rupee hit record low of 84.1087; RBI governor Shaktikanta Das emphasizes importance of reserves; India's current account deficit manageable at slightly over 1% of GDP; dollar-rupee one-week implied volatility at 3.5250%.

#IndianRupee #UsElections #Rbi #CurrencyStability #ForeignExchange #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #Volatility #EconomicPolicy #EmergingMarkets

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732639


Finance in the 21st Century: Is China Facing a Deflationary Trap?
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China's economy faced a roadblock post-COVID-19 pandemic; household savings increased, businesses reduced investments; concerns arise over a self-reinforcing cycle of declining spending and prices; consumer price index near zero for 16 months, producer price index negative for 24 months; Japan's three-decade deflationary trap serves as a cautionary tale; China's GDP fell from 76% of US level in 2021-23 to 67%, GDP per capita at 15% of US level; central banks should manage money like equity issuance; People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered key policy rate from 1.7% to 1.5%, encouraging lower mortgage rates; stimulus package includes CN¥1 trillion liquidity, CN¥500 billion swap facility, and CN¥300 billion in loans; A-share market index rose over 20% post-stimulus; priorities include increasing fiscal spending, supporting the private sector, and job creation for vulnerable groups; experts Patrick Bolton and Haizhou Huang advocate for further measures to escape deflation.

#China #Deflation #Economy #Stimulus #Pboc #Gdp #MonetaryPolicy #Investment #PrivateSector #JobCreation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731854


Xi highlights China's employment woes in speech published before US vote
==========

Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the challenges in China's employment market in a speech published on November 1, 2024; He noted that China is facing a period of strategic opportunities alongside risks and challenges, particularly in light of tensions with the US; Xi's comments come ahead of the US elections, where Donald Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on China if re-elected; Xi stated that stabilizing growth and employment remains a persistent pressure; The speech, originally delivered in May, signals a shift in policy priorities towards addressing unemployment; Chief economist Zhiwei Zhang suggested that unemployment may become a more significant policy target, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit above 3% next year; The job market is suffering from a property crash and deflation, leading to salary cuts and layoffs across various sectors; Xi pledged to prioritize full employment and youth employment, with recent government measures including cash handouts and expanded scholarships for struggling groups; The State Council will also provide social security benefits to college graduates who remain unemployed two years after graduation.

#China #Employment #XiJinping #UsElections #Economy #Policy #Unemployment #Deflation #GovernmentMeasures #Tariffs

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732393


Global economy set to cruise at a solid 3% growth rate next year — Reuters poll
==========

Global economic growth projected at 3% for 2025; US economy shows resilience with 2.8% GDP growth; inflation falling sharply; 500 economists surveyed; US presidential election may impact trade rules; India fastest-growing economy; China to implement $1.4 trillion fiscal stimulus; majority of economists expect lower interest rates by end of 2025; Trump’s proposed tariffs could negatively affect US GDP by -1.4%; 39 out of 42 US economists believe Trump's policies more inflationary than Harris's.

#GlobalEconomy #GdpGrowth #UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #China #India #UsElection #Tariffs #Economists

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732390


US hiring in ADP data rises to fastest pace in more than a year
==========

US private payrolls increased by 233,000 in October 2024; September figures revised higher; manufacturing sector lost jobs; education and health services, trade and transportation sectors showed strong job gains; Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist, noted strong labor demand despite hurricane recovery; US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.8% in Q3 2024; wage growth slowed, with job changers seeing a 6.2% pay increase and stayers a 4.6% increase; job gains strongest in the South; large employers (500+ workers) added the most positions; ADP data based on payrolls of over 25 million private-sector employees.

#UsHiring #AdpData #JobGrowth #EconomicExpansion #WageGrowth #LaborMarket #EmploymentReport #Hurricanes #BoeingStrike #PrivatePayrolls

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732312


US mortgage rates increase to 6.73%, highest since late July
==========

US mortgage rates rose 21 basis points to 6.73% for the week ended Oct 25, 2024; this marks the highest rate since late July; rates have increased nearly 60 basis points in the last four weeks, the most since March 2023; refinancing applications fell 6.3% to the lowest level since July, marking the longest decline in over a year; the index of home purchases rose for the first time in four weeks; rising mortgage rates and high asking prices hinder housing market recovery; mortgage rates are influenced by US treasury yields, which have risen due to steady economic growth; the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey has been conducted weekly since 1990, covering over 75% of US retail residential mortgage applications.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Refinancing #UsEconomy #MortgageBankersAssociation #InterestRates #RealEstate #EconomicGrowth #HomePurchases #TreasuryYields

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732283


US stocks rise as traders map out election game plan
==========

US stocks rose on Oct 29, 2024, as traders prepared for the US election and corporate earnings; S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Dow Jones up 0.6%, Russell 2000 climbed 1.6%; Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged 22% after Donald Trump's event; 38% of Bloomberg survey respondents expect equities to perform better under Trump; Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley noted increased market activity; Callie Cox from Ritholtz Wealth Management highlighted lack of volatility in October; major tech earnings and jobs data expected to influence markets; investors await results from firms representing 42% of S&P 500; bond yields rose to 4.27%; analysts predict market performance will depend on election outcome; Ed Yardeni warned of potential bond vigilantes; Apple Inc. launched new AI features; Boeing Co. announced a $19 billion share sale; Volkswagen AG plans factory closures and job cuts.

#UsStocks #Election #CorporateEarnings #Trump #MarketTrends #BondYields #Apple #Boeing #Volkswagen #FinancialAnalysis

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731948


My Say: Petronas and the dangers of fragmentation of our petroleum economy
==========

On Sept 16, 2024, Malaysia celebrated its 60th anniversary; on Oct 18, 2024, the Prime Minister presented Budget 2025. Malaysia's petroleum-related revenue is projected to decline from 41.3% in 2009 to 18.3% in 2025, impacting Petronas' dividends and income tax revenue. The petroleum economy constituted 7.9% of GDP in 2023. Petronas has contributed over RM1.2 trillion since inception until 2021, with significant investments in Sabah and Sarawak. Fragmentation of the oil and gas market poses risks to economic health and investment attraction. The article emphasizes the need for unity among states to support Petronas and warns against political divisions that threaten national cohesion and economic stability.

#Petronas #Malaysia #Economy #OilAndGas #Politics #Budget #Fragmentation #NationalUnity #Gdp #Investment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731808


The Week Ahead: Japan snap election, BoJ’s rate decision, 3Q corporate earnings in focus
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Japan will hold a snap general election on Oct 27, 2024; Bank of Japan (BoJ) to announce monetary policy on Oct 31, 2024; UOB expects no rate hike, while Bloomberg poll shows 56 economists predict BoJ will pause; Japan's unemployment rate for September and Consumer Confidence Index for October to be released; Malaysia's Supply Bill 2025 debate resumes with RM421 billion allocation; Corporate earnings season starts on Nov 1, 2024; US GDP advanced estimate expected at 3% for 3Q 2024; Federal Open Market Committee blackout period from Oct 26 to Nov 8; Kuala Lumpur High Court to deliver verdict on Najib Razak's case on Oct 30, 2024.

#Japan #Boj #Elections #CorporateEarnings #Gdp #Malaysia #EconomicData #Pmi #NajibRazak #Deepavali

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731718


Boeing exploring sale of its space business, WSJ reports
==========

Boeing is considering selling its space business, including the troubled Starliner spacecraft and operations supporting the International Space Station, as reported by the Wall Street Journal on October 25, 2024; Boeing's Starliner has faced over US$1.8 billion in cost overruns and development delays; two NASA astronauts remain stranded on the ISS, expected to return in February via SpaceX; Boeing is also facing labor actions from 33,000 workers affecting production of its 737 MAX, 767, and 777 jets; Boeing's shares rose 0.8% following the news.

#Boeing #SpaceBusiness #Starliner #Nasa #Spacex #Aerospace #LaborAction #737Max #CostOverruns #InternationalSpaceStation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731716


US core capital goods orders beat expectations in September
==========

US core capital goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% rise; August orders were revised to a 0.3% gain; core capital goods shipments fell by 0.3% after a 0.1% dip in August; non-defence capital goods orders dropped 4.5% in September following a 4.4% decline in August; business investment in equipment rose at a 9.8% annualized rate in Q2, contributing to a 3.0% GDP growth; growth estimates for Q3 are as high as 3.4%; advance estimate of Q3 GDP to be published next week.

#UsEconomy #CapitalGoods #BusinessInvestment #Gdp #EconomicGrowth #CommerceDepartment #September2024 #FinancialConditions #InterestRates #Manufacturing

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731699


IMF chief says world economy at risk of low-growth malaise, rising dissatisfaction
==========

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, warns of a low-growth, high-debt path threatening global economies; global GDP growth projected to decline to 3.1% by 2029; global government debt expected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024; dissatisfaction among populations rising despite some economic resilience; US presidential election on Nov 5 could shift policies; China's growth forecast cut to 4.8% for 2024; G20 finance chiefs optimistic about soft landing; Georgieva to assess Egypt's economic conditions in 10 days.

#Imf #KristalinaGeorgieva #GlobalEconomy #GdpGrowth #GovernmentDebt #UsElection #China #G20 #Egypt #EconomicForecast

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731576


BOJ chief says it is 'still taking time' to hit inflation goal
==========

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on October 23, 2024, that it is 'still taking time' to achieve the 2% inflation target sustainably; he emphasized the need for caution in raising interest rates, currently near zero; Ueda warned that slow rate increases could lead to speculative positions that may harm the yen; the BOJ ended negative rates in March 2024 and raised short-term rates to 0.25% in July 2024; underlying inflation in Japan has been around zero before 2022, rising due to global energy and food price increases; Ueda indicated the BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting, with most economists anticipating another rate hike by March 2025; he expressed concerns about determining the appropriate size and timing of future rate hikes.

#BankOfJapan #Inflation #InterestRates #KazuoUeda #EconomicPolicy #Japan #Imf #MonetaryPolicy #Speculation #GlobalEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731364


Tech stocks up in late trading as Tesla surges 9%
==========

On October 24, 2024, tech stocks rose in late trading, led by Tesla Inc. which surged 9% after reporting solid earnings and anticipating strong delivery volumes for the year. A $300 billion ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 gained post-market. Analysts, including David Laut from Abound Financial, expressed optimism about the earnings season, while Daniel Skelly from Morgan Stanley noted potential volatility due to upcoming events like the US election and Fed meetings. Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG warned of downside risks for equities, predicting an SPX pullback to the 5,500-5,650 range. Treasury yields rose to 4.23%, and concerns about the Fed's rate cuts were highlighted by Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. Tiffany Wilding from PIMCO cautioned against overreacting to rising bond yields, citing historical trends. Nicholas Colas from DataTrek Research remained bullish on US large caps despite challenges, while Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers noted the fragility of the equity market amid high valuations.

#TechStocks #Tesla #Earnings #MarketTrends #FederalReserve #BondYields #UsElection #Equities #Investing #FinancialAnalysis

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731359


Blackstone CEO says US to avoid recession regardless of election
==========

Steve Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, stated that the US is likely to avoid a recession irrespective of the presidential election outcome, citing strong economic conditions and stimulative policies from both candidates. He mentioned that the election, occurring in two weeks, is crucial for global markets. Schwarzman, who supports Donald Trump, noted that both candidates' policies could significantly impact businesses like Blackstone. He anticipates a favorable environment for deal-making as interest rates are expected to decline. Blackstone plans to introduce new investment products in Japan, where it has raised $1.4 billion from individual investors this year, and expects to invest $20 billion in Japan over the next three years.

#Blackstone #SteveSchwarzman #UsEconomy #Recession #PresidentialElection #Investment #Japan #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #PrivateEquity

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731277


Treasuries hold losses following global selloff
==========

Bonds maintained losses as US stocks struggled on October 23, 2024; traders are reconsidering the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid a robust US economy; Treasury 10-year yields reached 4.21%, the highest since July; Wall Street is reducing bets on aggressive policy easing; Citigroup strategists noted that S&P 500 exposure is at levels that preceded a 10% slump; Texas Instruments and Starbucks reported downbeat outlooks; Tokyo Metro Co. raised ¥348.6 billion ($2.3 billion) in Japan's largest IPO since 2018; the IMF warned of high uncertainty due to the upcoming US election; Fed officials signaled a preference for slower rate reductions; two-year yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Fed's first rate cut on September 18, 2024.

#Treasuries #FederalReserve #Stocks #Yields #UsEconomy #Ipo #MarketUncertainty #S&p500 #RateCuts #GlobalSelloff

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731189


US extends 25% semiconductor tax credit to chip and solar wafers
==========

The Biden administration finalized rules for a 25% tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing projects on October 22, 2024; the tax credit expands eligibility to companies producing wafers and chipmaking equipment; solar wafers are also included, aiming to boost domestic production; facilities producing polysilicon remain excluded; the Chips Act includes $39 billion in grant funding and $75 billion in loans; tax credits could cost over $85 billion, exceeding original estimates; Micron Technology Inc expects $11.3 billion in tax credits for two factories; Texas Instruments Inc anticipates $6 billion to $8 billion in tax credits; Hemlock Semiconductor LLC received a $325 million grant.

#Semiconductors #TaxCredit #BidenAdministration #ChipsAct #SolarWafers #Manufacturing #Investment #Polysilicon #MicronTechnology #TexasInstruments

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731168


T Rowe Price sees Treasury 10-year yields hitting 5% in six months
==========

T Rowe Price's chief investment officer of fixed-income, Arif Husain, predicts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 5% within six months, driven by rising inflation expectations and US fiscal spending concerns; currently, yields are at 4.08%; the last time yields hit 5% was in October 2023; T Rowe Price manages approximately US$180 billion in assets; the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in four years last month; ongoing Treasury issuance is flooding the market, while quantitative tightening by the Fed has reduced demand; Deutsche Bank predicts yields will touch 4.05% by September 2025; the US's debt interest-cost burden is at its highest since the 1990s; Husain suggests positioning for higher long-term Treasury yields as a near-term recession seems unlikely.

#TreasuryYields #TRowePrice #ArifHusain #FederalReserve #Inflation #UsEconomy #Debt #InterestRates #MarketPredictions #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730940


BOJ in no rush to hike in October, looking to move later — Bloomberg
==========

Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials see little need to raise interest rates in October 2024; inflation remains in line with forecasts; BOJ expected to maintain 0.25% benchmark rate at policy meeting ending Oct 31; potential for a third rate hike in December depends on uncertainty levels; officials to discuss revising July assessment on price risks; consumer prices rose 2.4% in September, marking 30th consecutive month above BOJ's target; BOJ will monitor US economy and upcoming election impacts.

#BankOfJapan #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #UsEconomy #FinancialMarkets #October2024 #ConsumerPrices #MonetaryPolicy #Forecasts

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730754


A US$500b pile of household debt weighs on new Thai leader
==========

Thailand's household debt exceeds US$500 billion, impacting economic growth; Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 38, took office in September 2024; household debt ratio at 90% of GDP, double emerging market average; debt relief package expected soon, involving banks and state bailout fund; World Bank's Kiatipong Ariyapruchya warns of economic suppression; debt growth linked to populist policies of Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra; suicide rate rose to 7.9 per 100,000, linked to debt issues; household debt per household projected to rise 8.4% to 606,378 baht (US$18,244); informal debt may add 10-20% to GDP; S&P Global Ratings warns of unsustainable household leverage.

#Thailand #HouseholdDebt #Economy #PaetongtarnShinawatra #ThaksinShinawatra #YingluckShinawatra #WorldBank #SuicideRate #DebtRelief #S&pGlobalRatings

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730667


Wall Street dials back Fed-cut bets on solid data
==========

Solid US retail sales in September exceeded forecasts, leading traders to reduce bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year; Treasury yields rose, with 10-year yields advancing seven basis points to 4.09%; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained little changed, while Dow Jones increased by 0.4%; Netflix Inc. saw a rise in subscribers; Travelers Cos. reported a profit tripling to $1.3 billion; Elevance Health Inc. fell 11% after cutting its annual outlook; Matthew Weller from Forex.com noted a narrow path for a Fed pause in November; Ellen Zentner from Morgan Stanley highlighted undeniable economic strength; Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index reached its highest since April; systematic funds are reducing equity exposure amid rising volatility ahead of the US Presidential Election.

#FederalReserve #RetailSales #TreasuryYields #S&p500 #EconomicData #InterestRates #Volatility #StockMarket #ConsumerSpending #Inflation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730653


McKinsey warns banks of ‘fleeting’ profit rebound as declining rates set to bite
==========

McKinsey & Co warns that higher profits for global banks over the last two years may be 'fleeting'; return on tangible equity (ROTE) rose to 11.7% in 2023, marking the best period for banking since before the global financial crisis; banks may need to cut costs at five times their usual rate to maintain profitability; US Federal Reserve cut benchmark rate by 0.5% in September 2024, first reduction in over four years; European Central Bank and Bank of England also lowering rates; net interest margins could drop by 16% by 2030; banks' share-price discount widened to 68% last year; McKinsey emphasizes the need for banks to adopt strategies of current leaders to avoid profitability decline.

#Banking #Profitability #InterestRates #Mckinsey #FinancialCrisis #Economy #UsFederalReserve #EuropeanCentralBank #BankOfEngland #MarketTrends

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730587


Southeast Asia’s central banks face duelling rate calls
==========

Three major Southeast Asian economies will announce monetary policy decisions on Oct 16, 2024, at 3pm Malaysian time; Bank Indonesia is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 6%, with 30 of 41 economists predicting no change; the Philippine central bank aims for a total of 175-basis-point cuts by the end of 2025, with inflation at a four-year low; Bank of Thailand is likely to maintain its rate at 2.5%, resisting government pressure for cuts; the Thai government is considering raising the 2025 inflation target; pressures include weak growth, currency volatility, and geopolitical risks.

#SoutheastAsia #CentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #BankIndonesia #Philippines #Thailand #GeopoliticalRisks

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730370


Fed’s Bostic says US employment and growth to stay robust
==========

Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, projects US GDP growth at about 2% in 2025 and 2.6% for 2024; he expects inflation to be choppy while employment remains robust; the Fed's benchmark rate is currently 4.75%-5% and may drop to 3%-3.5% in the long run; borrowing costs were lowered by 0.5% last month; Bostic is open to steady rates in upcoming meetings depending on economic data.

#FederalReserve #UsEconomy #Inflation #Employment #GdpGrowth #InterestRates #Bostic #EconomicOutlook #Atlanta #FinancialPolicy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730364


US consumer delinquency fears highest since 2020 in Fed survey
==========

Perceptions of potential delinquency on debts among US households rose to 14.2% in September 2024, the highest since April 2020; this marks the fourth consecutive month of increases, particularly among middle-aged respondents; the survey indicates a growing divide in the US economy, with some households thriving while others struggle; fewer consumers reported being better off compared to a year ago; however, there is a more optimistic outlook for the coming year regarding financial situations and credit access; inflation expectations remained stable, with anticipated gasoline prices rising by 3.4% over the next year.

#ConsumerDebt #Delinquency #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook #Inflation #Survey #UsEconomy #FinancialSituation #Households #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730351


Fed’s Kashkari says private credit may lessen systemic risk
==========

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that the rise of the private credit market could reduce systemic risk in the US financial system. He noted that private credit, which has grown to over a trillion dollars, is typically levered one to one, compared to US banks which are levered about 10 to one. Kashkari expressed cautious optimism about private credit's potential to introduce less risk due to longer capital lock-in periods. He acknowledged the lack of political will for increasing bank capital requirements and highlighted the need for tighter regulation on banks. The private credit market is currently valued at approximately $1.7 trillion, with regulators increasing scrutiny over the industry.

#FederalReserve #NeelKashkari #PrivateCredit #SystemicRisk #FinancialRegulation #UsEconomy #Banking #Investments #FinancialMarkets #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730224


My Say: It’s too soon to say China has peaked
==========

China's economy could still surpass the US by 2050 if proper policies are implemented; arguments of 'peak China' are being revisited due to recent economic struggles; China's population is declining faster than expected, with projections of 1.3 billion by 2050; investment has historically accounted for 45%-50% of GDP, leading to excess capacity; trade restrictions from the US and other nations are increasing; China's productivity growth has been weak, but reforms are underway; the renminbi is expected to appreciate against the US dollar; China could grow at 3% annually until 2050, outpacing the US's growth; assumptions include necessary reforms and avoidance of military conflict with the US.

#China #Economy #Us #Growth #Demographics #Trade #Currency #Reforms #Productivity #Geopolitics

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730045


Harris targets Black men with new economic proposals
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Kamala Harris unveiled new economic proposals on Oct 14, 2024, aimed at Black men, including forgivable small business loans of up to US$20,000 for underserved communities and plans to legalize recreational marijuana. The proposals also focus on boosting access to cryptocurrency and launching a health equity initiative for Black men addressing diseases like sickle cell. Concerns about Black male voter turnout on Nov 5 have been raised, with a September NAACP poll indicating over a quarter of young Black men may support Donald Trump. Harris's campaign seeks to emphasize the broader benefits of these proposals for all men. She is expected to discuss these policies further during an interview with Charlamagne tha God and while traveling to Erie County, Pennsylvania.

#KamalaHarris #BlackMen #EconomicProposals #RecreationalMarijuana #SmallBusinessLoans #Cryptocurrency #HealthEquity #VoterTurnout #2024Election #Naacp

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730114


Navigating a potentially volatile October
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October is historically the most volatile month for stock markets; analysis shows highest standard deviation (SD) in index price movements for S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, FTSE 100, and FBM KLCI since 1980; geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may increase volatility; Iran fired missiles at Israel on Oct 9, 2024; FBM KLCI's average SD in October is 8.96, compared to 6.1 for the entire year; US Federal Reserve cut policy rate by 50 bps on Sept 18, 2024; US non-farm payroll data released on Oct 4, 2024, could impact market sentiment; Budget 2025 to be tabled on Oct 18, 2024; ringgit appreciated nearly 10% in 2024; 3Q2024 GDP data to be released on Nov 15, 2024; October has historically shown a 73.5% probability of month-on-month gains since 1990; MIDF Research reports net buying by foreign funds correlates with ringgit strength; investors advised to be selective in stock choices; top picks include banking stocks and REITs.

#StockMarket #Volatility #Investment #October #Malaysia #Geopolitics #UsFederalReserve #Ringgit #Gdp #Budget2025

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729396


Asian investors wary as China’s Finance Ministry weekend briefing underwhelms
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Asian markets are cautious following China's Finance Ministry briefing; Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised support for the property sector but lacked specific monetary figures; China's factory-gate prices fell for the 24th month; S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday; Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped against the US dollar; investors disappointed by lack of concrete stimulus; CSI 300 Index saw its largest weekly loss since July; US dollar mixed against peers; key economic data expected this week including China GDP and retail sales; significant market moves include Bitcoin rising to $62,984.22 and gold falling to $2,647.21 per ounce.

#China #Finance #Investors #Market #Economy #Stimulus #Property #S&p500 #Gold #Oil

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/730011


The Week Ahead: Attention on Budget 2025, China data and major economies’ monetary policies
==========

Budget 2025 to be tabled by Malaysian PM on Oct 14, 2024; economists expect expansionary budget despite projected fiscal deficit reduction to 3.8% of GDP in 2025; UOB forecasts GDP growth of 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025; Malaysia's external trade data for September expected on Oct 14; China to hold fiscal policy briefing on Oct 12; 3Q GDP report and macro data including CPI and PPI to be released on Oct 13; Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee to deliver policy address on Oct 16; Monetary Authority of Singapore to release Monetary Policy Statement on Oct 14; regional central banks including BoT, BSP, and BI to announce monetary policy decisions; US 3Q earnings season to accelerate with 462 firms reporting; key data releases in Europe and Japan scheduled.

#Budget2025 #China #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #Gdp #Cpi #Ppi #EarningsSeason #Malaysia #Singapore

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729949


China economic spillovers to Asia hinge on property, Nomura says
==========

China's economic spillovers to Asia have weakened; Nomura Holdings Inc analysis indicates Asian economies' exports to China are more sensitive to property construction and retail consumption than infrastructure investments; Beijing expected to announce up to 2 trillion yuan (US$283 billion) in fiscal stimulus; Australia and Singapore most exposed to China's growth; Philippines and India least exposed; Taiwan and South Korea have decoupled somewhat; tourist arrivals from China have fallen across Asia, except Hong Kong.

#China #Asia #Economy #Nomura #FiscalStimulus #Property #Exports #Investment #Biodiversity #Esg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729892


Fed vice-chair says risks to inflation, employment now balanced
==========

Fed vice-chair Philip Jefferson stated that risks to inflation and employment are now balanced; Jefferson's remarks were made on October 9, 2024, at Davidson College, North Carolina; he noted that inflation risks have diminished while employment risks have risen; the Fed lowered interest rates by 0.5 percentage points last month for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic; forecasts indicate an additional 50 basis points reduction this year; September jobs report showed 254,000 jobs added, lowering unemployment to 4.1%; Jefferson emphasized the economy is growing solidly despite a cooling labor market; he mentioned the importance of the discount window for banks following recent bank collapses; Jefferson joined the Fed in 2022 after serving at Davidson College.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #Employment #InterestRates #PhilipJefferson #JobsReport #EconomicGrowth #DiscountWindow #NorthCarolina #2024

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729527


Alternative Views: Why the ringgit’s appreciation is losing its momentum for now
==========

For the first time since 2007, Malaysia's foreign currency account (FCA) deposits dropped by RM11 billion to RM246 billion in August 2024; FCA deposits had previously risen consistently, with a historical low of RM21.4 billion in January 2007 and a peak of RM247 billion in January 2024; the decline is attributed to exporters potentially converting more proceeds into ringgit due to a weakening US dollar; Bank Negara Malaysia is encouraging this conversion with assurances of easy approvals; the US dollar's weakness is linked to a slowing US economy and recent Federal Reserve rate cuts; the ringgit has appreciated nearly 10% against the US dollar this year; Malaysia's economy grew by 5.9% in Q2 2024, with exports increasing by 8.4%; concerns exist that continued appreciation of the ringgit could negatively impact the export-driven economy; predictions suggest the ringgit may reach RM3.55 against the US dollar by the end of next year; Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is noted for fostering good international relations and attracting foreign investments.

#Ringgit #Malaysia #ForeignCurrencyAccount #BankNegara #UsDollar #Economy #Exports #AnwarIbrahim #InterestRates #ForeignInvestment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729206


US consumer borrowing growth slows on drop in revolving credit
==========

US consumer borrowing increased by US$8.9 billion in August 2024; this is a slowdown from a revised US$26.6 billion increase in July 2024, the largest since October 2022; economists had estimated a US$12 billion increase; revolving debt, including credit cards, decreased by nearly US$1.4 billion; non-revolving credit, such as vehicle and tuition loans, rose by US$10.3 billion; credit card borrowing rates reached a record 23.37% in August; a 60-month vehicle loan from a commercial bank rose to 8.4%; the share of consumer debt in delinquency held at 3.2% in Q2 2024; the decline in revolving debt indicates consumers are reducing high-interest credit card balances.

#ConsumerBorrowing #CreditCards #FederalReserve #Debt #InterestRates #Economy #August2024 #FinancialReport #Delinquency #NonrevolvingCredit

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729381


US stocks hit by tech rout as war jitters lift oil
==========

US stocks fell due to a selloff in major tech companies; S&P 500 dropped 1% after four weeks of gains; Alphabet Inc. down 2.4% following a judge's ruling on Google Play Store; Brent crude oil surpassed $80 per barrel amid Middle East tensions; 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.02%; strong jobs report diminished chances of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November; Amazon.com Inc. fell 3.1% after Wells Fargo downgrade; Apple Inc. down 2.3% due to overly optimistic iPhone expectations; Wall Street strategists remain optimistic about economic resilience; Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson raised cyclical stocks outlook; Goldman Sachs' David Kostin increased S&P 12-month target from 6,000 to 6,300; upcoming earnings season expected to be significant; Delta Air Lines to report on travel demand; activist investor Starboard Value takes $1 billion stake in Pfizer; Chevron sells assets for $6.5 billion; Apollo Global Management to acquire Barnes Group for $3.6 billion; Rivus Pharmaceuticals considering IPO in 2024.

#UsStocks #Technology #OilPrices #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #Geopolitics #EconomicOutlook #Investments #MarketAnalysis #CorporateNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729353


US yields back at 4% for first time since August on Fed rethink
==========

US Treasury yields reached 4% for the first time since August 1, 2024, following strong September payrolls data; 10-year yield rose to 4.03%, two-year yield jumped to 4.02%; market expectations shifted away from a half-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve; Goldman Sachs strategists noted the strength of the jobs report may have accelerated discussions on policy restrictions; Citigroup expects a quarter-point cut in November; shorter-dated yields rose faster than longer maturities, inverting the yield curve; European bonds also fell, with German 10-year yield at 2.25% and UK equivalent at 4.19%; upcoming Fed speeches and US inflation data are anticipated.

#UsTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Yields #EmploymentData #EconomicPolicy #BondMarket #Inflation #FinancialNews #WallStreet

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729348


US inflation is set to reassure a labour market-focused Fed
==========

US inflation is expected to rise 0.1% in September 2024, the smallest gain in three months; CPI likely rose 2.3% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive slowdown; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI report on October 10, 2024; core CPI projected to increase 0.2% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year; Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of 2024; Neel Kashkari, Alberto Musalem, Adriana Kugler, Raphael Bostic, and Lorie Logan are among Fed officials speaking next week; Canada will release its final jobs report before the Bank of Canada rate decision; Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected to cut rates by 0.5% to 4.75% on October 9, 2024; Bank of Korea likely to trim its rate by 0.25% on October 11, 2024; inflation in Egypt was 26% in September; Kenya's monetary policy committee expected to reduce its key rate to 12.25% on October 8, 2024.

#UsInflation #FederalReserve #Cpi #InterestRates #EconomicPolicy #GlobalCentralBanks #JobMarket #MonetaryPolicy #Canada #Asia

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729159


Real World Economics: Economics, Empathy, and the US Election
==========

The November 2024 US presidential election will significantly impact global democracies and geopolitical issues; economic fallout from US policy missteps could lead to trade wars, inflation, and unemployment; both Democratic and Republican policies may increase the federal deficit, with Kamala Harris's policies projected to raise it by $1.2 trillion by 2034 and Donald Trump's by $5.8 trillion; inflation peaked in June 2022 but has since fallen, leading to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut; Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, which could harm US competitiveness; outsourcing is framed as a labor-versus-capital issue, with Trump’s tax cuts for corporations counterproductive; Argentina's historical economic stagnation serves as a warning against Trump's policies; the need for empathetic leadership is emphasized, contrasting Trump’s rhetoric with the ideal of a caring president.

#UsElection #Economics #Inflation #Deficit #Trump #Harris #Policy #Outsourcing #Geopolitics #Leadership

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728461


US expected to report moderate September job growth
==========

The US economy likely maintained a moderate pace of job growth in September; unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%; Hurricane Helene caused turbulence in the labor market; Boeing strike involved 45,000 machinists; dockworkers' strike ended with a tentative deal; nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 140,000 jobs in September; August payrolls revised higher; employment gains led by healthcare and government sectors; average hourly earnings forecasted to increase by 0.3%; unemployment rate influenced by school year; economists estimate 200,000 jobs needed monthly to keep pace with working-age population growth; Goldman Sachs noted potential slowdown in labor demand.

#UsEconomy #JobGrowth #Unemployment #BoeingStrike #HurricaneHelene #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #WageGrowth #EconomicForecast #Employment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729044


Wall St opens mixed after economic data; Middle East tensions in focus
==========

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on October 3, 2024; S&P 500 service sector activity at 54.9 in September, above 51.7 estimate; Dow Jones fell 137.01 points to 42,059.51; S&P 500 gained 5.62 points to 5,716.01; Nasdaq Composite rose 83.86 points to 18,006.65; 64.9% odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve's November meeting; investors cautious due to Middle East tensions and upcoming unemployment data; oil stocks like Chevron and Exxon Mobil rose; Levi Strauss dropped 7.2% after Dockers brand sale consideration; Constellation Brands fell 2.1%; declining issues outnumbered advancers on NYSE and Nasdaq.

#WallStreet #S&p500 #EconomicData #MiddleEast #StockMarket #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve #OilStocks #LeviStrauss #ConstellationBrands

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729005


Cover Story: 4 factors investors should watch in 4Q
==========

Malaysian equities have performed well in 2024, with FBM KLCI and FBM Top 100 Index up 14.72% and 16.65% year-to-date, closing at 1,668.82 and 12,231.21 points respectively; Fund managers are focusing on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the impact on the dollar and ringgit, and domestic developments for investment strategies; The Fed's 50-bps cut on Sept 18 marks the end of an 18-month tightening cycle, benefiting emerging markets; The ringgit strengthened to 4.2 against the US dollar post-rate cut, becoming the world's top-performing currency; Budget 2025 to be tabled on Oct 18 is expected to influence domestic market trends; Foreign funds have significantly contributed to the local market's positive momentum, with net foreign purchases totaling RM2.4 billion from January to February and RM3.7 billion from April to May; Geopolitical risks and external factors remain challenges, but experts advise staying invested while managing risks; Rakuten Trade raised its year-end FBM KLCI target to 1,780 points.

#MalaysianEquities #Investment #UsFederalReserve #Ringgit #ForeignInflows #Budget2025 #GeopoliticalRisks #MarketTrends #FundManagers #EconomicOutlook

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727776


My Say: What Asia should expect from a volatile US
==========

Kamala Harris's potential victory could lead to continued American policies; US elections are less than six weeks away; Harris is dead even with Trump in national polling; Trump has an edge on economy and immigration issues; Harris raised more money and has enthusiastic volunteer support; abortion rights backlash may favor Democrats; Harris likely to win narrowly but may lose Senate control; divided government expected; Harris's presidency may continue Biden's policies; Trump would implement aggressive tariffs, risking world trade; US economy may slow but remain resilient; US fiscal position at risk with $28 trillion debt; Moody's predicts rising debt-to-GDP ratio; Fed unlikely to cut rates aggressively; US oil production expected to rise by 500,000 bpd in 2025; Asia must prepare for a volatile US political landscape.

#UsElections #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #Asia #Economy #Trade #OilProduction #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #Politics

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728449


Fed's Bostic open to another large rate cut if job market weakens
==========

Atlanta Federal Reserve president Raphael Bostic expressed openness to a half-percentage-point interest rate cut at the November meeting if job growth data shows significant weakness; Bostic's baseline outlook anticipates an 'orderly' easing over 15 months, targeting a policy rate of 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2025; inflation slowed to 2.2% in August, near the Fed's 2% target; Bostic emphasized the importance of job growth remaining above 100,000 positions monthly to absorb labor market entrants; he noted that business contacts in his district do not anticipate layoffs, indicating a still-strong labor market.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #JobMarket #Inflation #Bostic #EconomicPolicy #LaborMarket #PceIndex #EmploymentReport #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728583


Google to spend US$1 bil in Thailand to speed up Asia AI push
==========

Google plans to invest US$1 billion in Thailand to build data centres in Bangkok and Chonburi; investment could add US$4 billion to Thailand's economy by 2029 and support 14,000 jobs annually over the next five years; announcement made on September 30, 2024, by Google and Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra; investment aligns with Thailand's cloud policies; Google has trained over 3.6 million individuals in digital skills in the past five years; other tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft are also investing heavily in Southeast Asia.

#Google #Thailand #Ai #Investment #DataCentres #CloudInfrastructure #SoutheastAsia #PaetongtarnShinawatra #Economy #Jobs

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728529


Gold price poised for biggest quarterly gain since 2016
==========

Gold price is set for a 14% quarterly gain, the highest since January 2016; Spot gold down 0.3% to US$2,648.88 per ounce; US gold futures rose 0.1% to US$2,671.00; Record high of US$2,685.42 reached on September 26, 2024; Driven by US Fed's half-percentage-point rate cut, China's stimulus measures, and Middle East conflict; UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts gold could rise to US$2,900 per ounce in 12 months; Investors await US ADP employment and non-farm payrolls data; Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman to speak; Spot silver down 0.6% at US$31.43 per ounce; Silver set for 8% quarterly rise; Platinum down 1.3% to US$986.93; Palladium down 0.4% to US$1,006.94 but on track for quarterly gain.

#Gold #MarketAnalysis #UsFederalReserve #Geopolitics #Investment #Silver #Platinum #Palladium #Economy #China

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728525


The State of the Nation: Economists: Exports to stay moderately strong in 2025
==========

Malaysia's exports are projected to grow modestly in 2025 following a rebound in April 2024; total exports rose 12.1% y-o-y to RM129.16 billion in August 2024; growth driven by electrical and electronics products and increased shipments to the US; Industrial Production Index expanded by 5.3% in July 2024; economists predict industrial output growth of 4.8% and merchandise export growth of 9.7% for 2025; global economy expected to grow 3.3% in 2025; potential risks include US presidential election outcomes, China's economic recovery, and geopolitical conflicts; services exports rose to 17% of total exports in H1 2024; palm oil sector performance supports overall export growth; Malaysia's export sector faces vulnerabilities from geopolitical shocks and economic slowdowns.

#Malaysia #Exports #Economy #2025 #IndustrialProduction #Geopolitics #Trade #Electronics #Services #EconomicGrowth

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727726


S&P 500 notches fresh record ahead of PCE data
==========

On September 27, 2024, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, marking its 42nd closing record of the year; the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.7% after earlier rising 1.5%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell, while the 10-year US Treasury yield reached approximately 3.79%. Positive economic data and China's commitment to fiscal spending boosted market sentiment. Micron Technology Inc. provided a strong forecast driven by AI demand, while Super Micro Computer Inc. faced a Justice Department probe, causing its shares to decline. Costco Wholesale Corp. reported higher-than-expected profits after market close. Traders are anticipating key economic indicators, including the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and consumer demand data, set to release on September 28. Peter Tchir from Academy Securities expressed optimism about resilient economic data, particularly in the job market. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank and Mexico both cut interest rates, following similar actions by Hungary and the Czech Republic earlier in the week. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day amid reports of increased output from Saudi Arabia and Libya's new central bank governor.

#S&p500 #Nasdaq #UsEconomy #PceData #MicronTechnology #SuperMicroComputer #Costco #InterestRates #OilPrices #FederalReserve

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728193


Yellen says economy on 'soft landing' path, Fed's policy rate will fall to neutral level
==========

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on September 26, 2024, that the US economy is on a path to a 'soft landing' based on labor market and inflation data; she emphasized the importance of reducing housing costs as part of taming inflation; Yellen indicated that the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is expected to decline to a neutral level; she highlighted the necessity of US deficit reduction while continuing investments for future growth; Yellen reassured that banks are well-capitalized but acknowledged the need for improved liquidity access following 2023's deposit run issues.

#JanetYellen #UsEconomy #SoftLanding #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #HousingCosts #BankingStability #DeficitReduction

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728184


China mulling US$142b capital injection into top banks, Bloomberg reports
==========

China is considering a capital injection of up to one trillion yuan (US$142 billion) into its largest state banks to bolster their ability to support the struggling economy; this would be the first capital injection since the 2008 financial crisis; funding will primarily come from new special sovereign bonds; the top six banks, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC) and Bank of China Ltd (BOC), are facing record low margins and rising bad debt; Li Yunze, the top banking regulator, indicated a need to boost core Tier 1 capital; combined profits of commercial lenders rose only 0.4% in the first half of 2024; the average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for the six largest banks was 11.77% at the end of June; the government has previously intervened to support banks, including a US$60 billion recapitalization in the early 2000s and a US$19 billion bailout for Agricultural Bank in 2008.

#China #Banking #CapitalInjection #Economy #SovereignBonds #Icbc #Boc #FinancialCrisis #Regulation #Profits

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728057


US new-home sales fell in August after upward revision
==========

US new single-family home sales decreased 4.7% in August 2024 to an annualised rate of 716,000; this follows the fastest sales pace since early 2022. The median sales price fell 4.6% to US$420,600, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year price declines. Despite the sales drop, mortgage rates are at a two-year low, boosting market sentiment. The share of consumers planning to buy a home in the next six months reached a one-year high in September. Builders like Lennar Corp are using sales incentives to stimulate demand, impacting profit margins.

#HousingMarket #NewHomes #SalesDecline #MortgageRates #RealEstate #UsEconomy #ConsumerSentiment #Homebuilders #ConstructionStocks #PriceDecline

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728012


Six weeks before election, Trump vows to take other countries’ jobs
==========

Donald Trump, on September 25, 2024, in Savannah, Georgia, pledged to bring foreign companies to the US using tax incentives and tariffs, stating, "Under my leadership, we are going to take other countries’ jobs." He aims to reduce corporate tax from 21% to 15% and impose tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China. Trump highlighted the need for American firms to ramp up domestic manufacturing, referencing past sales of GE Appliances and IBM's PC unit to foreign companies. His proposals could lead to a $1,350 annual increase for middle-income households, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Trump's previous term saw $358 billion in foreign investments, while Biden's administration reported $426 billion in three years. Economists warn that Trump's policies may trigger global protectionism and inflation, with potential impacts on world trade.

#Trump #Harris #UsElection #Economy #Jobs #Tariffs #Manufacturing #ForeignInvestment #TaxCuts #Protectionism

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727903


Fed's Bowman: Lingering inflation risks warrant more cautious cuts
==========

Fed governor Michelle Bowman stated on September 24, 2024, that key inflation measures remain 'uncomfortably above' the 2% target, necessitating caution in interest rate cuts. She dissented to a recent half-point rate reduction, advocating for a quarter-point cut due to ongoing inflation risks from global supply chain disruptions, aggressive fiscal policy, and housing supply-demand mismatches. Core inflation was estimated at 2.6% through August. The Fed cut the benchmark rate from 5.25%-5.5% to 4.75%-5% last week, with an 11 to 1 vote, marking Bowman's dissent as the first since 2005. She expressed concerns about rapid rate cuts potentially unleashing pent-up demand and emphasized the strength of the labor market with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Inflation data for August is set to be released soon.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #MichelleBowman #EconomicPolicy #LaborMarket #CoreInflation #Dissent #MonetaryPolicy #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727852


Fed paper sketches out slow slog to unload central bank's mortgage bonds
==========

Federal Reserve research indicates it may hold $600 billion in mortgage bonds by 2035; current mortgage bond holdings are $2.3 trillion, down from $2.7 trillion; Fed's balance sheet reduced from $9 trillion to $7.2 trillion since 2022; interest rates below 4% on most MBS holdings hinder refinancing; quantitative tightening (QT) aims to normalize monetary policy post-COVID-19; market expects QT to end in April; potential for active sales of mortgage bonds considered; analyst Derek Tang suggests Fed may need to sell bonds to avoid long-term holdings.

#FederalReserve #MortgageBonds #QuantitativeTightening #InterestRates #FinancialPolicy #EconomicResearch #DerekTang #Mbs #Treasuries #BalanceSheet

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727715


Stocks gain as traders weigh another big rate cut
==========

US equities gained as traders considered Federal Reserve commentary; S&P 500 rose 0.3%, nearing all-time high; equal-weighted benchmark increased 0.5%, closing at record; Dow Jones Industrial Average also reached record; Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%; Intel Corp. shares climbed 3.3% after Apollo Global Management's investment offer; Boeing Co. advanced 2% after improving deal terms for striking workers; US business activity showed robust growth despite moderation; flash PMIs indicated sound economic footing; traders expect nearly three-quarters of a point of policy easing by year-end; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested focus on labor market; Neel Kashkari supports half-point rate cut by year-end; Raphael Bostic advocates caution on rate cuts; upcoming data on Fed's preferred price metric and US personal spending due; US two-year yields fell to 3.58%; Ed Yardeni warned of inflation risks from aggressive rate cuts; European stocks gained despite weak PMI data; euro weakened 0.7% against dollar amid expectations for ECB rate cuts.

#Stocks #FederalReserve #InterestRates #S&p500 #EconomicData #Inflation #EuropeanCentralBank #MarketAnalysis #BusinessActivity #Investments

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727692


Malaysia's foreign reserves swell to largest in nearly a decade
==========

As of September 13, 2024, Malaysia's foreign reserves reached US$117.6 billion, the highest since December 15, 2014; this is an increase from US$116.8 billion at the end of August; reserves can finance 5.5 months of imports and equal one times the total short-term external debt; foreign currency reserves rose to US$105.4 billion; IMF reserves decreased to US$1.2 billion; special drawing rights remained at US$5.7 billion; gold reserves at US$2.9 billion; other reserve assets at US$2.4 billion; total assets of Bank Negara Malaysia stood at RM653.59 billion.

#Malaysia #ForeignReserves #BankNegaraMalaysia #Economy #Finance #Imports #Imf #Gold #Assets #Investment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727605


Harris to release new economic proposals this week on US wealth creation — Reuters
==========

US Vice President Kamala Harris plans to unveil new economic policies this week aimed at helping Americans build wealth and incentivizing businesses; expected announcement in Pittsburgh on September 25, 2024; comes as undecided voters seek economic clarity ahead of the November presidential election; Harris emphasizes investing in American aspirations while addressing economic challenges; previous proposals included pay hikes for teachers and measures to eliminate pay gaps; Harris' economic plans build on Biden's policies; recent polls show Harris gaining ground on economic issues against Trump; some advisers caution against releasing new policies so close to the election; Trump proposes tax eliminations and tariffs, blaming Democrats for inflation; Harris' proposals would require congressional approval.

#KamalaHarris #EconomicProposals #WealthCreation #2024Election #Pittsburgh #Trump #Inflation #VoterConcerns #Policy #Democrats

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727599


US Congress unveils stopgap spending deal to avert shutdown
==========

Congressional leaders unveiled a stopgap funding bill on Sept 23, 2024, to keep the US government open through Dec 20, aiming to prevent an Oct 1 shutdown; the bill maintains existing funding levels with exceptions for the US Secret Service, which receives US$231 million for presidential candidate protection; it excludes GOP's proof of citizenship voting requirement and additional funds for Navy submarines and disaster aid; House Speaker Mike Johnson described it as a 'narrow, bare-bones CR'; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer praised the bipartisan effort; the House Rules Committee will meet on Sept 24 to consider the bill.

#UsCongress #StopgapFunding #GovernmentShutdown #Budget #SecretService #Republicans #Democrats #Legislation #Bipartisan #Appropriations

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727545


My Say: Risks in the Chinese economy
==========

China's economy has not rebounded as hoped; economic activity is lacklustre with weak consumer and business confidence at multi-year lows; real estate sector shows no signs of recovery; inflation is low, raising fears of a deflationary trap similar to Japan; economic forecasts have been downgraded; however, China is excelling in new competitive areas like electric vehicles and biomedical industries; domestic demand is weak, with retail sales growth at 2.7% year-on-year; industrial production growth at 5% but demand for goods remains low; new-home sales fell 26.8% year-on-year; producer prices down 1.8% year-on-year; former central bank governor Yi Gang calls for quicker policy responses; macro leverage ratio at 294.8%; export growth at 8.7% in August; potential for policy shift due to deflationary risks and trade tensions; need for aggressive stimulus measures to prevent financial instability.

#China #Economy #Deflation #RealEstate #Exports #Policy #Inflation #EconomicGrowth #FinancialStability #ConsumerConfidence

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726909


Asian markets set to extend rally as global stocks soar to new highs
==========

Asian markets are expected to continue their rally following a surge in global stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 2.6%. US jobless claims dropped to their lowest since May, indicating a healthy labor market, which supports the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain its interest rate, while traders await inflation data. The S&P 500 achieved its 39th record in 2024, with a year-to-date increase of about 20%. A survey indicated that 75% of respondents expect a soft landing for the US economy post-rate cut, favoring value stocks over AI stocks. Key upcoming events include Japan's CPI and rate decision, and China's loan prime rates.

#AsianMarkets #GlobalStocks #FederalReserve #InterestRates #S&p500 #JoblessClaims #Japan #China #ValueStocks #Commodities

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727353


Yellen says US Fed cut ‘positive sign,’ policy still restrictive
==========

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut on September 18, 2024, as 'a very positive sign for where the US economy is,' indicating progress in reducing inflation and a focus on maintaining a strong job market; Yellen emphasized that the Fed's confidence reflects diminished inflation risks and a commitment to the 2% target; she noted that the stance of monetary policy remains restrictive, with expectations for further interest rate reductions into 2026; Yellen highlighted that the job market is 'normal, healthy,' contrasting it with the tighter labor conditions of 2022 and 2023.

#FederalReserve #JanetYellen #InterestRates #UsEconomy #Inflation #JobMarket #MonetaryPolicy #2024 #EconomicOutlook #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727345


US Fed rate cut fuels optimism for sustained Malaysian export recovery
==========

The US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, expected to boost US domestic consumption and support Malaysian exports; Malaysia's August trade data showed a 12.1% year-on-year increase in exports to RM129.16 billion, surpassing estimates; UOB Global Economics predicts ongoing recovery in electrical and electronics exports; year-to-date export growth stands at 6%, with a full-year target of 7.6%; imports rose 26.2% year-on-year to RM123.49 billion in August; trade surplus narrowed 67.3% year-on-year to RM5.67 billion; RHB Research forecasts GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 2024.

#UsFed #Malaysia #Exports #Economy #TradeData #Gdp #Uob #Rhb #August2024 #PolicyRate

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727324


Fed Bowman's dissent is first from US Fed governor since 2005
==========

On September 19, 2024, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman voted against an interest-rate decision for the first time since 2005, opposing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's consensus. The other 11 voting members supported a half-percentage-point rate cut, while Bowman preferred a quarter-point cut. Only 12 of the 19 policymakers voted, including eight permanent voters. Historically, dissents have been rare among Fed governors, with most dissenting votes coming from Fed presidents. Bowman's dissent marks a significant moment as it is the first in favor of tighter monetary policy in nearly 30 years. She has been a vocal advocate for a higher Fed policy rate to combat inflation.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Dissent #MonetaryPolicy #MichelleBowman #JeromePowell #Inflation #Economics #FinancialMarkets #PolicyDecisions

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727190


US mortgage rates drop to two-year low ahead of US Fed rate cut
==========

US mortgage rates fell to the lowest since September 2022, with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping 14 basis points to 6.15% as of Sept 13, 2024; the 15-year mortgage rate decreased 29 basis points to 5.42%; adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 5.66%; this marks seven consecutive weeks of decline, the longest since 2018-2019; home-purchase applications increased by 5.4%, reaching a three-month high; refinancing applications surged over 24%, the highest since April 2022; the decline in rates is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with a decision anticipated on Sept 18, 2024.

#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #InterestRates #HomePurchases #Refinancing #RealEstate #Economy #Finance #HousingMarket #Us

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727162


Dalio sees quarter-point Fed cut as ‘right thing’ for creditors
==========

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggests a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is appropriate for creditors, balancing their need for real returns against the burden on debtors. He stated this during an interview on September 18, 2024, at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. Dalio believes that while a 25 basis point cut is warranted, a 50 basis point cut may be necessary due to worsening mortgage conditions. He emphasized that the Fed's decision this week is not critical for the long term, as real interest rates must remain low to manage rising debts. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, echoed similar sentiments, stating that the rate cut's impact will be minor in the broader economic context.

#RayDalio #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy #Jpmorgan #JamieDimon #MilkenInstitute #Singapore #FinancialPolicy #Debt

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727053


US stocks hover near record-high as traders split over Fed rate cut
==========

US stocks are near record highs as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates; the S&P 500 closed near 5,635; retail sales increased; market-implied odds for a 50-basis-point cut are around 55%; investor reactions vary on potential cuts; a survey shows mixed expectations on market reactions; Treasury yields rose to 3.64%; historical performance indicates a drop of 0.56% in the week following a first rate cut; analysts suggest a 25 or 50 basis-point cut could impact market sentiment; comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are highly anticipated.

#UsStocks #FederalReserve #InterestRates #S&p500 #MarketAnalysis #RetailSales #TreasuryYields #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #JeromePowell

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727038


Thailand to boost borrowing by 8% to US$78 bil to spur growth
==========

Thailand plans to increase government borrowing by 8% to US$78 billion for the fiscal year starting October 2024; approximately 1.1 trillion baht (RM141.57 billion) will be new borrowing for budget deficit financing; the remainder will refinance existing debt; Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra emphasizes urgent economic stimulus; Thailand's economy has averaged 1.9% growth over nearly a decade; government bond sales will raise about 1.3 trillion baht; budget deficit projected at 866 billion baht; government plans to auction 322 billion baht of bonds from October to December 2024.

#Thailand #Borrowing #Economy #Growth #GovernmentBonds #PaetongtarnShinawatra #BudgetDeficit #Finance #PublicDebt #SoutheastAsia

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726917


Apollo’s Kleinman says wage, housing inflation to limit Fed cuts
==========

Scott Kleinman, Co-President of Apollo Global Management, states that investors have unrealistic expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in the next year; futures traders are pricing in 10 quarter-point cuts, which Kleinman believes is unlikely without a recession; he notes that wage and housing inflation will restrict the Fed's ability to lower rates; Kleinman spoke at the Livewire Live investment conference in Sydney on September 17, 2024; he emphasizes that the economy is growing more slowly than earlier in the year and warns that markets are overly optimistic, conditioned by a prolonged economic expansion lasting over 14 years.

#FederalReserve #RateCuts #Inflation #Economy #ScottKleinman #ApolloGlobalManagement #Investors #MarketExpectations #Housing #Wages

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726900


Wall Street’s early read places debt-cap deadline in mid-2025
==========

Wall Street forecasts US debt ceiling exhaustion by mid-2025, with focus on July or August; Congress faces potential government shutdown by end of September 2024; current debt-ceiling suspension ends Jan. 1, 2025; Treasury to rely on extraordinary measures and cash reserves; Citigroup's Jason Williams predicts last-minute agreements; Bank of America estimates July deadline; Treasury expected to have over $1 trillion cash in 2025; Fed's quantitative tightening may be affected by Treasury's cash management; Fed Chair Jerome Powell to address rate policy in upcoming meeting.

#DebtCeiling #UsTreasury #Congress #FinancialMarkets #QuantitativeTightening #Citigroup #BankOfAmerica #GovernmentShutdown #CashReserves #EconomicPolicy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726892


Prioritise nation building, think of the rakyat
==========

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia, emphasizes the importance of nation building and the role of the private sector in economic growth during The Edge Billion Ringgit Club dinner on September 16, 2024; He highlights the challenges of managing fiscal balance due to inherited debt; Calls for innovation and collaboration between public and private sectors; Malaysia to chair ASEAN in 2025, promoting economic integration; Application to BRICS to enhance trade opportunities; Advocates for reforms to improve fiscal sustainability and combat corruption; Stresses the need for a dignified life for all Malaysians.

#Malaysia #AnwarIbrahim #Economy #Asean #Brics #Corruption #NationBuilding #PrivateSector #FiscalPolicy #Innovation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726396


US locks in steep China tariff hikes, many to start Sept 27
==========

The Biden administration announced steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, effective Sept 27, 2024; 100% duty on electric vehicles, 50% on solar cells, and 25% on steel, aluminum, EV batteries, and key minerals; 50% duty on semiconductors starting in 2025; minimal adjustments to tariffs on US$18 billion worth of goods; Lael Brainard emphasized the need for 'tough, targeted' tariffs to counter China's subsidies; China plans retaliation against the tariffs; Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are courting voters in key states; EU and Canada also announced new tariffs on Chinese EVs; temporary relief for US port operators regarding cranes; increased tariffs on medical supplies delayed to allow shift to non-Chinese suppliers.

#Tariffs #China #BidenAdministration #ElectricVehicles #Semiconductors #TradePolicy #Retaliation #Harris #Trump #EconomicStrategy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726737


Indonesia's Prabowo plans US$65b green fund from selling carbon credits
==========

Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto aims to create a green economy fund by selling carbon credits from projects like rainforest preservation, targeting US$65 billion by 2028; a new carbon emissions regulator will be established to oversee these efforts; the fund aims to reach 1,000 trillion rupiah by 2028; challenges include competition in global carbon markets and ensuring project credibility; Christina Ng from the Energy Shift Institute highlights ambitious financial and operational targets; the incoming government plans to provide seed capital and promote projects internationally; carbon credit prices range from US$5 to US$50 per metric tonne, complicating the fund's target; Indonesia's deforestation rate has declined, but forest fires remain a concern; road shows will be held to attract international investment.

#Indonesia #PrabowoSubianto #GreenFund #CarbonCredits #Emissions #ParisAgreement #Deforestation #ClimatePolicy #Investment #Sustainability

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726736


Wells Fargo drops as US seeks fixes to money-laundering controls
==========

Wells Fargo & Co shares fell after a deal with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on September 13, 2024, requiring the bank to improve money laundering detection and compliance with international sanctions; the stock dropped as much as 6.5% before recovering to a 4.3% decline by 2:16 PM in New York; the OCC's agreement does not impose a monetary penalty; Wells Fargo stated it is addressing the required corrective actions with urgency.

#WellsFargo #MoneyLaundering #Occ #StockMarket #FinancialRegulations #Compliance #Sanctions #Banking #Investments #FinancialCrimes

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726652


Private debt looks for growth as traditional capital flatlines
==========

Private debt industry valued at $1.7 trillion; fundraising for institutional investors expected to remain flat in 2024 compared to 2023; 59 traditional private debt funds closed in H1 2024, down from 68 in H1 2023; fundraising volume decreased from $98.9 billion to $90.9 billion; central banks likely to cut interest rates, reducing appeal of floating-rate private debt; private credit firms exploring retail and insurance company investments; notable firms include Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Carlyle Group; Blue Owl Capital acquired Kuvare Asset Management in July 2024, gaining $20 billion in assets; evergreen fund structures gaining popularity with lower fees and flexible capital contributions.

#PrivateDebt #Investment #Fundraising #InstitutionalInvestors #RetailInvestors #InsuranceCompanies #EvergreenFunds #Apollo #GoldmanSachs #Blackrock

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726645


US producer prices pick up slightly after downward revisions
==========

US producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased 0.2% in August 2024 from July, which was revised to a flat reading; year-over-year PPI rose 1.7%, the least since early 2024; PPI excluding food and energy climbed 0.3% in August and 2.4% year-over-year; services costs rose 0.4%, driven by guestroom rentals; prices of goods remained unchanged; initial unemployment insurance filings rose slightly for the week ending Sept 7; Fed projected to cut rates amid concerns about labor market durability; August PCE price gauge data due later this month.

#UsEconomy #ProducerPrices #Inflation #FederalReserve #Ppi #EconomicData #InterestRates #Unemployment #ConsumerPrices #FinancialMarkets

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726616


Goldman Sachs to sell SRT tied to US$3b of leveraged loans
==========

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is selling significant risk transfer (SRT) tied to a portfolio of approximately US$3 billion of leveraged loans; the deal involves notes linked to revolving credit facilities and term loans; terms are under discussion with potential investors; Basel III Endgame rules are expected to increase regulatory capital requirements by 9% for the eight largest US banks; SRTs have gained popularity, particularly among European banks; investors typically receive a floating-rate coupon with yields often exceeding 10%; the announcement was made on September 12, 2024.

#GoldmanSachs #Srt #LeveragedLoans #BaselIii #FinancialRegulation #Investors #CreditRisk #CapitalRequirements #FloatingrateCoupon #UsBanks

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726547


Oil’s fall into US$60s widens runway for global economy to make soft landing
==========

Brent crude oil fell below US$70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021; forecasts suggest prices could drop to US$60 in 2025; Tim Drayson from Legal & General Investment Management states soft landing probabilities increase for the US and Europe; ECB expected to cut rates on September 14, 2024; US Federal Reserve likely to begin easing on September 18, 2024; Christof Ruehl from Columbia University highlights benefits for central banks; global oil production expected to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day; SHOK model predicts a US$60 oil price could reduce inflation by 0.4 percentage points in the US and Europe; Janet Yellen describes the US economy as experiencing a soft landing; TS Lombard's Freya Beamish notes lower crude prices could stimulate US consumer purchasing power.

#OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #BrentCrude #MonetaryPolicy #UsEconomy #Ecb #FederalReserve #Commodities

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726344