Stellantis laying off about 400 US workers, citing 'unprecedented uncertainties'
==========

Chrysler parent Stellantis is laying off about 400 U.S. salaried workers, representing 2% of those jobs worldwide, effective March 31. The company aims to cut costs, boost efficiency, and ramp up electric-vehicle production plans. Stellantis offered buyouts to U.S. workers last year and plans to offer at least 25 battery-electric models in the United States by 2030. Both Ford Motor and General Motors have also cut costs and jobs recently. United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain criticized Stellantis for terminating 2,000 temporary workers, calling it 'corporate greed.'

#Stellantis #Layoffs #ElectricVehicles #Costcutting #Buyouts #Automakers #UnitedAutoWorkers

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/705709


Didi Global’s revenue jumps ahead of planned Hong Kong IPO
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Didi Global Inc’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 55% from a year earlier, reaching 49.4 billion yuan (RM32.36 billion). For the full year, revenue climbed 37% to 192.4 billion yuan. Didi is recovering from a setback in 2021 when regulators launched a probe into its data handling and forced it to delist from the NYSE. Didi plans to have a public listing in Hong Kong this year. As of Feb 29, Didi had repurchased approximately 14.9 million ADSs for approximately US$54.4 million under its US$1 billion share-buyback program.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/705703


Oil higher on strong US demand, Fed policy in focus
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Oil prices rose on expectations of strong global demand, including in the US. Brent futures for May delivery rose 0.6% to $82.38 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast of strong oil demand growth globally. US crude oil inventories and fuel inventories fell last week. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates in the summer despite rising US consumer prices. Capital Economics forecasts the Fed to start easing policy around June. Oil prices were under pressure in the previous session after the US Energy Information Administration raised domestic oil output forecast.

#OilPrices #UsDemand #FedPolicy #Opec #UsCrudeOilInventories #FuelInventories #FederalReserve #CapitalEconomics #UsEnergyInformationAdministration

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/704415


Biden’s budget expects cooling economy, stubborn inflation
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The White House expects the US economy to cool in 2024 with 1.7% growth, below economists' forecast of 2.1%. President Biden's proposed budget for fiscal year 2025 assumes higher growth due to pro-growth effects of policies. The budget includes increased child tax credit, tax credit for homebuyers, higher corporate taxes, and a minimum tax rate of 25% for billionaires. Inflation is expected to average 2.9% in 2024, and unemployment is projected to rise to 4% this year and next. The administration expects borrowing costs to average 5.1% for three-month Treasury bills and 4.4% for 10-year notes in 2024. The US will pay $4.7 trillion in real net interest from 2025 to 2034, squeezing other programs in the federal budget. The White House projects annual fiscal deficits above $1.5 trillion over the next decade, with a deficit as a share of GDP averaging 4.6% from 2025 to 2034.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/704278


The Week Ahead: Appeal verdict on Kevin Morais’ murder; Malaysia’s IPI, US CPI in the spotlight
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The local economic calendar turns light this week, with Malaysia’s industrial production figures for January due on Tuesday. Singapore’s 4Q2023 final labour market report will be released on Thursday. China is set to announce its February consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data on March 9. India’s February CPI figures are due on Tuesday, and its trade deficit is expected to worsen. Indonesia will unveil its trade data on Friday, and its trade surplus in February is likely to fall. The US CPI data for February will be released on Tuesday. The Court of Appeal’s verdict on the appeal by the six men sentenced to death for killing Deputy Public Prosecutor Datuk Anthony Kevin Morais eight years ago will be announced on Thursday. The hearing of SRC International Sdn Bhd’s US$1.18 billion civil suit against Datuk Seri Najib Razak continues on Monday. Petroliam Nasional Bhd will announce its 4Q and full year 2023 financial results.

#EconomicCalendar #IndustrialProduction #Cpi #Ppi #TradeData #CourtVerdict #CivilSuit #FinancialResults

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/704021


Analysts see ringgit strengthening against US dollar this year
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The ringgit is expected to strengthen this year, supported by the upbeat domestic economy and the readjustment of the US interest rate. MIDF Research highlights that as a net commodity exporter, the ringgit will benefit from supportive global commodity prices and sustained trade surplus. The US Federal Reserve and other major central banks shifting their monetary stance from hawkish to dovish will narrow interest differentials in 2024. MIDF expects the ringgit to average at 4.38 against the US dollar and reach 4.20 by year-end. AmBank Research also sees upside prospects for the currency, backed by increased coordination among authorities and statements that the ringgit is currently deemed 'undervalued'. Maybank Investment Bank emphasizes the importance of economic reforms and restructuring for the ringgit's long-term outlook.

#Ringgit #UsDollar #Economy #InterestRates #CommodityPrices #TradeSurplus #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicReforms

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/703865


Gold extends rally to record as Powell hints at rate cut in 2024
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Gold prices surged to a record high, reaching US$2,161.09 per ounce, as Powell indicated potential rate cuts in the coming months. The rally was also influenced by sluggish US economic data and falling inflation. Lower rates boost the appeal of non-yielding bullion. If labor market or inflation data shows weakness, US$2,300 would be the short-term target. Central bank buying is expected to continue due to geopolitical uncertainty, and gold is seen as a safe investment. Spot silver fell 0.4% to US$24.08, platinum dipped 0.3% to US$904.83 per ounce, and palladium slipped 1.5% to US$1,026.80 after a surge of over 12% in the last session.

#Gold #RateCut #RecordHigh #UsEconomicData #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #Inflation #InterestRates #Silver #Platinum #Palladium

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/703819


Miti sees 'golden opportunity' for second surge in Malaysian economy
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Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Liew Chin Tong sees a 'golden opportunity' for a second surge in Malaysia's economy. He attributes this opportunity to political stability, far-sighted economic policies, and the green transition. Liew believes that competition between China and the US has led to increased investments in Southeast Asia, and Malaysia is well-positioned to attract investors. He highlights Malaysia's good logistics, fair Common Law framework, multilingual workforce, and high level of education as advantages. Liew suggests that Malaysia should focus on vertical integration and cooperation with neighboring countries like Vietnam and Indonesia rather than competing with them. He made these comments during the Civil Discussion: Unity Aspiration Strengthening the Bumiputera Agenda at the Bumiputera Economic Congress 2024.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/703176


US consumer sentiment posts surprise drop from initial reading
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US consumer sentiment declined to 76.9 from a preliminary reading of 79.6 in late February, marking a reversal from earlier in the month that showed a pickup in optimism. The intramonth drop was the biggest since March 2020. The earlier February reading was the highest since July 2021. Gas prices climbed notably toward the end of the month, but the survey didn’t specify what led sentiment to deteriorate so much through Feb 26, when the final responses were collected. Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3% over the next year, up from the 2.9% expected in January. Despite the drop, sentiment has largely been improving in the last two years as inflation has retreated without much damage to the economy. Views among Republicans improved to the best level since mid-2021, while those for Democrats worsened by the most since June 2022 but remained elevated.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/703160


Boeing agrees to US$51m settlement for US export violations, including in China
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Boeing has reached a US$51 million settlement with the US State Department for export violations, including employees in China downloading documents related to US Defence Department programs. From 2013 to 2017, three Chinese employees at Boeing facilities in China downloaded technical data involving programs such as the F-18, F-15, and F-22 fighter jets, the E-3 airborne warning and control system, the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, and the AGM84E cruise missile. Unauthorized downloads of technical data also occurred at Boeing and partner facilities in 18 countries from 2013 to 2018. The settlement covers 199 violations of the Arms Export Control Act and International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Boeing voluntarily disclosed the violations, and the settlement includes a three-year consent agreement and a US$51 million civil penalty, with US$24 million suspended for remedial compliance measures. Boeing will engage an external special compliance officer and undergo two external audits for at least two years.

#Boeing #UsStateDepartment #ExportViolations #China #Settlement

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/703004


Experts have divergent views on investment outlook, general agreement on tech
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Global financial markets have started 2024 on a steady footing, with the US Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 hitting record highs. Taiwan's stock benchmark also surged to an all-time high. The FBM KLCI has risen 5% this year, making it the best performer in the region. Trading volume on Bursa Malaysia has increased. Experts have divergent views on the investment outlook for 2024, but there is general agreement on the positive outlook for the tech sector. Experts also discuss key investment themes, including the Johor theme and the Osat players in the tech sector. They discuss the attractiveness of Malaysia for foreign investors and the potential impact of a global economic slowdown. They also share their views on the soft landing in developed economies, weaknesses in China's economy, key risks in 2024, and opportunities in bonds. Overall, there is optimism about the tech sector and selective sectors in Malaysia and globally.

#InvestmentOutlook #TechSector #FinancialMarkets #FbmKlci #TradingVolume #JohorTheme #OsatPlayers #ForeignInvestors #GlobalEconomicSlowdown #SoftLanding #China'sEconomy #KeyRisks #Bonds

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/701393


Ringgit opens lower against greenback amid resilient US economic data
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The ringgit opened lower against the US dollar on Friday, as the greenback stayed firm, amid resilient US economic data. At 9am, the ringgit had eased to 4.7745/7800 versus the US dollar, compared with Thursday’s close at 4.7710/7800. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said US economic data continued to defy market expectations, which could lead to continuous support for the greenback. He noted that initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 201,000 last week, against consensus estimates of 217,000, while manufacturers’ sentiment improved to 51.5 points in February, the second consecutive month above the 50-point level indicating an expansion. SPI Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes said that on a positive note, the ringgit opened below this week's weakest level. On a negative note, the broader US dollar was stronger overnight after better-than-expected US data. Meanwhile, the ringgit was traded higher against a basket of major currencies.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/702044


Ringgit opens easier against US dollar
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The ringgit opened easier against the US dollar at 4.7995/8050 compared to the previous close at 4.7975/8000. The greenback remained steady despite slight retracement and subdued US yields. The Malaysian ringgit is expected to continue trading cautiously ahead of the release of the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and the announcement of the Malaysian consumer price index on Friday. The ringgit also traded lower against other major currencies, including the Japanese yen, British pound, and euro. It also slid against other ASEAN currencies such as the Thai baht and Singapore dollar.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/701679


Commercial-property loans coming due in US jump to $929 billion
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Nearly 20% of outstanding debt on US commercial and multifamily real estate, totaling $929 billion, will mature this year, requiring refinancing or property sales. The volume of loans coming due swelled 40% from an earlier estimate of $659 billion. The increase is attributed to loan extensions and other delays rather than new transactions. The Federal Reserve's decision to stop hiking interest rates is expected to facilitate more deals this year. About $4.7 trillion of debt from all sources is backed by US commercial real estate, raising concerns among regulators and investors. Commercial-property prices have fallen 21% from their peak in early 2022, with office prices experiencing the largest decline at 35%. Banks have $441 billion of commercial-property debt coming due this year, while $234 billion is securitized in CMBS, collateralized loan obligations, and asset-backed securities. Nonbank lenders have $168 billion in loans coming due. Approximately 25% of office loans are coming due in 2024, reflecting the impact of remote and hybrid work on office values and vacancies.

#Commercial-propertyLoans #UsRealEstate #Refinancing #PropertySales

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/700732


Real estate pain for US regional banks is piling up, say investors
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Investors are concerned about the exposure of US regional banks, particularly New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), to commercial real estate (CRE) loans. NYCB's recent earnings release, which revealed real estate losses, led to a 60% drop in its shares. Short-seller William C Martin of Raging Capital Ventures believes that as long as interest rates remain high, banks will continue to face problems with CRE loans. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 triggered a regional banking crisis, and investors fear that more pain is on the horizon for banks with office and multifamily property loans. The KBW Regional Banking index is down around 11% since NYCB's announcement. Delinquency rates on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are expected to rise in 2024, and roughly $1.2 trillion in commercial mortgages are set to mature this year and next. Some investors are shorting banks with high concentrations of real estate loans, including NYCB, OceanFirst, and Valley National. Fitch has warned that if prices decline by approximately 40%, losses in CRE portfolios could result in the failure of a moderate number of smaller banks.

#UsRegionalBanks #CommercialRealEstate #NewYorkCommunityBancorp #SiliconValleyBank #CreLoans #InterestRates #DelinquencyRates #CommercialMortgage-backedSecurities #Cmbs #LoanDelinquencies #Rent-stabilizedMultifamilyLoans

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/700702


Australian bonds fall ahead of US inflation data
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Australian and New Zealand bonds fell ahead of US inflation data this week. The two nations’ 10-year yields climbed three basis points. Australian stocks fell, while major currencies were broadly stable. US equity futures were little changed. The yen was slightly stronger on Monday. US inflation data due Tuesday will be crucial for the Fed. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday to cap a fresh record. Swaps market pricing shows investors anticipate the chance of a Fed cut in March at 15%. In commodities, oil prices fell after comments from Iran’s foreign minister. In Asia, data set for release includes inflation and industrial output reports for India.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/700622


Ringgit opens weaker against US dollar, rebound likely
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The ringgit opened lower against the US dollar at 4.7590/7625 compared to Tuesday's closing rate of 4.7570/7620. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid expects a rebound in the ringgit supported by an expected announcement from China on its economic boost. The ringgit also traded lower against a basket of major currencies, including the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound. However, it edged up against the Indonesian rupiah. The local note traded mostly lower against Asean currencies, including the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Philippine peso.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/700139


MIDF expects ringgit at 4.20 against US dollar by year end
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MIDF Research expects the ringgit to appreciate towards 4.20 against the US dollar by year end. The strengthening of the ringgit will be supported by the expected decline in interest rate differentials, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower its interest rates, while Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to maintain the overnight policy rate at 3%. Concerns about recession risk in the US and prolonged weakness in global trade and manufacturing activities could limit the ringgit's prospects. The ringgit outlook may be affected by continued strength in the US dollar if the Fed delays rate cuts to a later period given the resilience in the US economy and elevated inflation. The return of appetite for riskier assets and recovery in regional trade are expected to support emerging-market currencies.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699888


Treasuries decline as Powell adds to jobs blow
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Treasuries resumed a sell-off and most Asian equities fell after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said policymakers will likely wait beyond March before cutting interest rates. The US 10-year yield climbed as much as seven basis points as Powell spoke, extending its advance made Friday when the benchmark rose 14 basis points. The Treasury declines rippled across Asian bond markets, weighing on government debt in Australia and New Zealand, where yields rose around 10 basis points. Asian equities and US share futures trended lower, while Japanese equities rose. The dollar strengthened against most major peers. Investor bets for a rate cut in March by the Fed tumbled Friday to around 20% from almost 40% on Thursday. Oil was little changed as traders gauged the impact of US and UK strikes against Houthi targets over the weekend. Gold fell slightly. Former US president Donald Trump also signaled he may impose a tariff on Chinese goods of more than 60% if elected.

#Treasuries #AsianEquities #FederalReserve #InterestRates #UsJobsData

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699761


Scorching US economy throws off market's Fed cut narrative
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Robust US economic data is challenging the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, as evidence of stronger-than-expected growth raises concerns about inflation. The S&P 500 reached a record high in January on hopes of a Fed pivot to cutting rates, but recent data, including a strong jobs report, has diminished expectations of a near-term rate cut. The market had been pricing in six or seven rate cuts, but the probability of a March cut now stands at about 20%. The strong growth is seen as positive for stocks, but fears of an inflationary rebound and higher interest rates remain.

#UsEconomy #FederalReserve #StockMarket #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699686


MIDF Research expects Malaysia's economy to grow stronger at 4.7% in 2024
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MIDF Research projects Malaysia's economy to grow stronger at 4.7% in 2024, supported by external trade recovery and sustained growth in domestic spending. However, potential downside risks include geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, fluctuations in commodity and financial markets, and the possibility of a US economic recession. Malaysia's economy grew at a modest pace of 3.4% year-on-year in 4Q 2023, with growth expected to continue based on rising domestic spending and recovery in external demand. The full-year 2023 GDP growth was 3.8%, driven by sustained domestic demand.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699634