US expected to report moderate September job growth
==========

The US economy likely maintained a moderate pace of job growth in September; unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%; Hurricane Helene caused turbulence in the labor market; Boeing strike involved 45,000 machinists; dockworkers' strike ended with a tentative deal; nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 140,000 jobs in September; August payrolls revised higher; employment gains led by healthcare and government sectors; average hourly earnings forecasted to increase by 0.3%; unemployment rate influenced by school year; economists estimate 200,000 jobs needed monthly to keep pace with working-age population growth; Goldman Sachs noted potential slowdown in labor demand.

#UsEconomy #JobGrowth #Unemployment #BoeingStrike #HurricaneHelene #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #WageGrowth #EconomicForecast #Employment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729044 

 Wall St opens mixed after economic data; Middle East tensions in focus
==========

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on October 3, 2024; S&P 500 service sector activity at 54.9 in September, above 51.7 estimate; Dow Jones fell 137.01 points to 42,059.51; S&P 500 gained 5.62 points to 5,716.01; Nasdaq Composite rose 83.86 points to 18,006.65; 64.9% odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve's November meeting; investors cautious due to Middle East tensions and upcoming unemployment data; oil stocks like Chevron and Exxon Mobil rose; Levi Strauss dropped 7.2% after Dockers brand sale consideration; Constellation Brands fell 2.1%; declining issues outnumbered advancers on NYSE and Nasdaq.

#WallStreet #S&p500 #EconomicData #MiddleEast #StockMarket #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve #OilStocks #LeviStrauss #ConstellationBrands

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729005 

 Cover Story: 4 factors investors should watch in 4Q
==========

Malaysian equities have performed well in 2024, with FBM KLCI and FBM Top 100 Index up 14.72% and 16.65% year-to-date, closing at 1,668.82 and 12,231.21 points respectively; Fund managers are focusing on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the impact on the dollar and ringgit, and domestic developments for investment strategies; The Fed's 50-bps cut on Sept 18 marks the end of an 18-month tightening cycle, benefiting emerging markets; The ringgit strengthened to 4.2 against the US dollar post-rate cut, becoming the world's top-performing currency; Budget 2025 to be tabled on Oct 18 is expected to influence domestic market trends; Foreign funds have significantly contributed to the local market's positive momentum, with net foreign purchases totaling RM2.4 billion from January to February and RM3.7 billion from April to May; Geopolitical risks and external factors remain challenges, but experts advise staying invested while managing risks; Rakuten Trade raised its year-end FBM KLCI target to 1,780 points.

#MalaysianEquities #Investment #UsFederalReserve #Ringgit #ForeignInflows #Budget2025 #GeopoliticalRisks #MarketTrends #FundManagers #EconomicOutlook

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727776 

 My Say: What Asia should expect from a volatile US
==========

Kamala Harris's potential victory could lead to continued American policies; US elections are less than six weeks away; Harris is dead even with Trump in national polling; Trump has an edge on economy and immigration issues; Harris raised more money and has enthusiastic volunteer support; abortion rights backlash may favor Democrats; Harris likely to win narrowly but may lose Senate control; divided government expected; Harris's presidency may continue Biden's policies; Trump would implement aggressive tariffs, risking world trade; US economy may slow but remain resilient; US fiscal position at risk with $28 trillion debt; Moody's predicts rising debt-to-GDP ratio; Fed unlikely to cut rates aggressively; US oil production expected to rise by 500,000 bpd in 2025; Asia must prepare for a volatile US political landscape.

#UsElections #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #Asia #Economy #Trade #OilProduction #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #Politics

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728449 

 Fed's Bostic open to another large rate cut if job market weakens
==========

Atlanta Federal Reserve president Raphael Bostic expressed openness to a half-percentage-point interest rate cut at the November meeting if job growth data shows significant weakness; Bostic's baseline outlook anticipates an 'orderly' easing over 15 months, targeting a policy rate of 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2025; inflation slowed to 2.2% in August, near the Fed's 2% target; Bostic emphasized the importance of job growth remaining above 100,000 positions monthly to absorb labor market entrants; he noted that business contacts in his district do not anticipate layoffs, indicating a still-strong labor market.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #JobMarket #Inflation #Bostic #EconomicPolicy #LaborMarket #PceIndex #EmploymentReport #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728583 

 Google to spend US$1 bil in Thailand to speed up Asia AI push
==========

Google plans to invest US$1 billion in Thailand to build data centres in Bangkok and Chonburi; investment could add US$4 billion to Thailand's economy by 2029 and support 14,000 jobs annually over the next five years; announcement made on September 30, 2024, by Google and Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra; investment aligns with Thailand's cloud policies; Google has trained over 3.6 million individuals in digital skills in the past five years; other tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft are also investing heavily in Southeast Asia.

#Google #Thailand #Ai #Investment #DataCentres #CloudInfrastructure #SoutheastAsia #PaetongtarnShinawatra #Economy #Jobs

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728529 

 Gold price poised for biggest quarterly gain since 2016
==========

Gold price is set for a 14% quarterly gain, the highest since January 2016; Spot gold down 0.3% to US$2,648.88 per ounce; US gold futures rose 0.1% to US$2,671.00; Record high of US$2,685.42 reached on September 26, 2024; Driven by US Fed's half-percentage-point rate cut, China's stimulus measures, and Middle East conflict; UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts gold could rise to US$2,900 per ounce in 12 months; Investors await US ADP employment and non-farm payrolls data; Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman to speak; Spot silver down 0.6% at US$31.43 per ounce; Silver set for 8% quarterly rise; Platinum down 1.3% to US$986.93; Palladium down 0.4% to US$1,006.94 but on track for quarterly gain.

#Gold #MarketAnalysis #UsFederalReserve #Geopolitics #Investment #Silver #Platinum #Palladium #Economy #China

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728525 

 The State of the Nation: Economists: Exports to stay moderately strong in 2025
==========

Malaysia's exports are projected to grow modestly in 2025 following a rebound in April 2024; total exports rose 12.1% y-o-y to RM129.16 billion in August 2024; growth driven by electrical and electronics products and increased shipments to the US; Industrial Production Index expanded by 5.3% in July 2024; economists predict industrial output growth of 4.8% and merchandise export growth of 9.7% for 2025; global economy expected to grow 3.3% in 2025; potential risks include US presidential election outcomes, China's economic recovery, and geopolitical conflicts; services exports rose to 17% of total exports in H1 2024; palm oil sector performance supports overall export growth; Malaysia's export sector faces vulnerabilities from geopolitical shocks and economic slowdowns.

#Malaysia #Exports #Economy #2025 #IndustrialProduction #Geopolitics #Trade #Electronics #Services #EconomicGrowth

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727726 

 S&P 500 notches fresh record ahead of PCE data
==========

On September 27, 2024, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, marking its 42nd closing record of the year; the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.7% after earlier rising 1.5%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell, while the 10-year US Treasury yield reached approximately 3.79%. Positive economic data and China's commitment to fiscal spending boosted market sentiment. Micron Technology Inc. provided a strong forecast driven by AI demand, while Super Micro Computer Inc. faced a Justice Department probe, causing its shares to decline. Costco Wholesale Corp. reported higher-than-expected profits after market close. Traders are anticipating key economic indicators, including the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and consumer demand data, set to release on September 28. Peter Tchir from Academy Securities expressed optimism about resilient economic data, particularly in the job market. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank and Mexico both cut interest rates, following similar actions by Hungary and the Czech Republic earlier in the week. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day amid reports of increased output from Saudi Arabia and Libya's new central bank governor.

#S&p500 #Nasdaq #UsEconomy #PceData #MicronTechnology #SuperMicroComputer #Costco #InterestRates #OilPrices #FederalReserve

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728193 

 Yellen says economy on 'soft landing' path, Fed's policy rate will fall to neutral level
==========

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on September 26, 2024, that the US economy is on a path to a 'soft landing' based on labor market and inflation data; she emphasized the importance of reducing housing costs as part of taming inflation; Yellen indicated that the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is expected to decline to a neutral level; she highlighted the necessity of US deficit reduction while continuing investments for future growth; Yellen reassured that banks are well-capitalized but acknowledged the need for improved liquidity access following 2023's deposit run issues.

#JanetYellen #UsEconomy #SoftLanding #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #HousingCosts #BankingStability #DeficitReduction

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728184 

 China mulling US$142b capital injection into top banks, Bloomberg reports
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China is considering a capital injection of up to one trillion yuan (US$142 billion) into its largest state banks to bolster their ability to support the struggling economy; this would be the first capital injection since the 2008 financial crisis; funding will primarily come from new special sovereign bonds; the top six banks, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC) and Bank of China Ltd (BOC), are facing record low margins and rising bad debt; Li Yunze, the top banking regulator, indicated a need to boost core Tier 1 capital; combined profits of commercial lenders rose only 0.4% in the first half of 2024; the average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for the six largest banks was 11.77% at the end of June; the government has previously intervened to support banks, including a US$60 billion recapitalization in the early 2000s and a US$19 billion bailout for Agricultural Bank in 2008.

#China #Banking #CapitalInjection #Economy #SovereignBonds #Icbc #Boc #FinancialCrisis #Regulation #Profits

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728057 

 US new-home sales fell in August after upward revision
==========

US new single-family home sales decreased 4.7% in August 2024 to an annualised rate of 716,000; this follows the fastest sales pace since early 2022. The median sales price fell 4.6% to US$420,600, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year price declines. Despite the sales drop, mortgage rates are at a two-year low, boosting market sentiment. The share of consumers planning to buy a home in the next six months reached a one-year high in September. Builders like Lennar Corp are using sales incentives to stimulate demand, impacting profit margins.

#HousingMarket #NewHomes #SalesDecline #MortgageRates #RealEstate #UsEconomy #ConsumerSentiment #Homebuilders #ConstructionStocks #PriceDecline

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/728012 

 Six weeks before election, Trump vows to take other countries’ jobs
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Donald Trump, on September 25, 2024, in Savannah, Georgia, pledged to bring foreign companies to the US using tax incentives and tariffs, stating, "Under my leadership, we are going to take other countries’ jobs." He aims to reduce corporate tax from 21% to 15% and impose tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China. Trump highlighted the need for American firms to ramp up domestic manufacturing, referencing past sales of GE Appliances and IBM's PC unit to foreign companies. His proposals could lead to a $1,350 annual increase for middle-income households, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Trump's previous term saw $358 billion in foreign investments, while Biden's administration reported $426 billion in three years. Economists warn that Trump's policies may trigger global protectionism and inflation, with potential impacts on world trade.

#Trump #Harris #UsElection #Economy #Jobs #Tariffs #Manufacturing #ForeignInvestment #TaxCuts #Protectionism

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727903 

 Fed's Bowman: Lingering inflation risks warrant more cautious cuts
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Fed governor Michelle Bowman stated on September 24, 2024, that key inflation measures remain 'uncomfortably above' the 2% target, necessitating caution in interest rate cuts. She dissented to a recent half-point rate reduction, advocating for a quarter-point cut due to ongoing inflation risks from global supply chain disruptions, aggressive fiscal policy, and housing supply-demand mismatches. Core inflation was estimated at 2.6% through August. The Fed cut the benchmark rate from 5.25%-5.5% to 4.75%-5% last week, with an 11 to 1 vote, marking Bowman's dissent as the first since 2005. She expressed concerns about rapid rate cuts potentially unleashing pent-up demand and emphasized the strength of the labor market with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Inflation data for August is set to be released soon.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #MichelleBowman #EconomicPolicy #LaborMarket #CoreInflation #Dissent #MonetaryPolicy #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727852 

 Fed paper sketches out slow slog to unload central bank's mortgage bonds
==========

Federal Reserve research indicates it may hold $600 billion in mortgage bonds by 2035; current mortgage bond holdings are $2.3 trillion, down from $2.7 trillion; Fed's balance sheet reduced from $9 trillion to $7.2 trillion since 2022; interest rates below 4% on most MBS holdings hinder refinancing; quantitative tightening (QT) aims to normalize monetary policy post-COVID-19; market expects QT to end in April; potential for active sales of mortgage bonds considered; analyst Derek Tang suggests Fed may need to sell bonds to avoid long-term holdings.

#FederalReserve #MortgageBonds #QuantitativeTightening #InterestRates #FinancialPolicy #EconomicResearch #DerekTang #Mbs #Treasuries #BalanceSheet

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727715 

 Stocks gain as traders weigh another big rate cut
==========

US equities gained as traders considered Federal Reserve commentary; S&P 500 rose 0.3%, nearing all-time high; equal-weighted benchmark increased 0.5%, closing at record; Dow Jones Industrial Average also reached record; Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%; Intel Corp. shares climbed 3.3% after Apollo Global Management's investment offer; Boeing Co. advanced 2% after improving deal terms for striking workers; US business activity showed robust growth despite moderation; flash PMIs indicated sound economic footing; traders expect nearly three-quarters of a point of policy easing by year-end; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested focus on labor market; Neel Kashkari supports half-point rate cut by year-end; Raphael Bostic advocates caution on rate cuts; upcoming data on Fed's preferred price metric and US personal spending due; US two-year yields fell to 3.58%; Ed Yardeni warned of inflation risks from aggressive rate cuts; European stocks gained despite weak PMI data; euro weakened 0.7% against dollar amid expectations for ECB rate cuts.

#Stocks #FederalReserve #InterestRates #S&p500 #EconomicData #Inflation #EuropeanCentralBank #MarketAnalysis #BusinessActivity #Investments

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727692 

 Malaysia's foreign reserves swell to largest in nearly a decade
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As of September 13, 2024, Malaysia's foreign reserves reached US$117.6 billion, the highest since December 15, 2014; this is an increase from US$116.8 billion at the end of August; reserves can finance 5.5 months of imports and equal one times the total short-term external debt; foreign currency reserves rose to US$105.4 billion; IMF reserves decreased to US$1.2 billion; special drawing rights remained at US$5.7 billion; gold reserves at US$2.9 billion; other reserve assets at US$2.4 billion; total assets of Bank Negara Malaysia stood at RM653.59 billion.

#Malaysia #ForeignReserves #BankNegaraMalaysia #Economy #Finance #Imports #Imf #Gold #Assets #Investment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727605 

 Harris to release new economic proposals this week on US wealth creation — Reuters
==========

US Vice President Kamala Harris plans to unveil new economic policies this week aimed at helping Americans build wealth and incentivizing businesses; expected announcement in Pittsburgh on September 25, 2024; comes as undecided voters seek economic clarity ahead of the November presidential election; Harris emphasizes investing in American aspirations while addressing economic challenges; previous proposals included pay hikes for teachers and measures to eliminate pay gaps; Harris' economic plans build on Biden's policies; recent polls show Harris gaining ground on economic issues against Trump; some advisers caution against releasing new policies so close to the election; Trump proposes tax eliminations and tariffs, blaming Democrats for inflation; Harris' proposals would require congressional approval.

#KamalaHarris #EconomicProposals #WealthCreation #2024Election #Pittsburgh #Trump #Inflation #VoterConcerns #Policy #Democrats

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727599 

 US Congress unveils stopgap spending deal to avert shutdown
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Congressional leaders unveiled a stopgap funding bill on Sept 23, 2024, to keep the US government open through Dec 20, aiming to prevent an Oct 1 shutdown; the bill maintains existing funding levels with exceptions for the US Secret Service, which receives US$231 million for presidential candidate protection; it excludes GOP's proof of citizenship voting requirement and additional funds for Navy submarines and disaster aid; House Speaker Mike Johnson described it as a 'narrow, bare-bones CR'; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer praised the bipartisan effort; the House Rules Committee will meet on Sept 24 to consider the bill.

#UsCongress #StopgapFunding #GovernmentShutdown #Budget #SecretService #Republicans #Democrats #Legislation #Bipartisan #Appropriations

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727545 

 My Say: Risks in the Chinese economy
==========

China's economy has not rebounded as hoped; economic activity is lacklustre with weak consumer and business confidence at multi-year lows; real estate sector shows no signs of recovery; inflation is low, raising fears of a deflationary trap similar to Japan; economic forecasts have been downgraded; however, China is excelling in new competitive areas like electric vehicles and biomedical industries; domestic demand is weak, with retail sales growth at 2.7% year-on-year; industrial production growth at 5% but demand for goods remains low; new-home sales fell 26.8% year-on-year; producer prices down 1.8% year-on-year; former central bank governor Yi Gang calls for quicker policy responses; macro leverage ratio at 294.8%; export growth at 8.7% in August; potential for policy shift due to deflationary risks and trade tensions; need for aggressive stimulus measures to prevent financial instability.

#China #Economy #Deflation #RealEstate #Exports #Policy #Inflation #EconomicGrowth #FinancialStability #ConsumerConfidence

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726909 

 Asian markets set to extend rally as global stocks soar to new highs
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Asian markets are expected to continue their rally following a surge in global stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 2.6%. US jobless claims dropped to their lowest since May, indicating a healthy labor market, which supports the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain its interest rate, while traders await inflation data. The S&P 500 achieved its 39th record in 2024, with a year-to-date increase of about 20%. A survey indicated that 75% of respondents expect a soft landing for the US economy post-rate cut, favoring value stocks over AI stocks. Key upcoming events include Japan's CPI and rate decision, and China's loan prime rates.

#AsianMarkets #GlobalStocks #FederalReserve #InterestRates #S&p500 #JoblessClaims #Japan #China #ValueStocks #Commodities

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727353 

 Yellen says US Fed cut ‘positive sign,’ policy still restrictive
==========

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut on September 18, 2024, as 'a very positive sign for where the US economy is,' indicating progress in reducing inflation and a focus on maintaining a strong job market; Yellen emphasized that the Fed's confidence reflects diminished inflation risks and a commitment to the 2% target; she noted that the stance of monetary policy remains restrictive, with expectations for further interest rate reductions into 2026; Yellen highlighted that the job market is 'normal, healthy,' contrasting it with the tighter labor conditions of 2022 and 2023.

#FederalReserve #JanetYellen #InterestRates #UsEconomy #Inflation #JobMarket #MonetaryPolicy #2024 #EconomicOutlook #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727345 

 US Fed rate cut fuels optimism for sustained Malaysian export recovery
==========

The US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, expected to boost US domestic consumption and support Malaysian exports; Malaysia's August trade data showed a 12.1% year-on-year increase in exports to RM129.16 billion, surpassing estimates; UOB Global Economics predicts ongoing recovery in electrical and electronics exports; year-to-date export growth stands at 6%, with a full-year target of 7.6%; imports rose 26.2% year-on-year to RM123.49 billion in August; trade surplus narrowed 67.3% year-on-year to RM5.67 billion; RHB Research forecasts GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 2024.

#UsFed #Malaysia #Exports #Economy #TradeData #Gdp #Uob #Rhb #August2024 #PolicyRate

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727324 

 Fed Bowman's dissent is first from US Fed governor since 2005
==========

On September 19, 2024, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman voted against an interest-rate decision for the first time since 2005, opposing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's consensus. The other 11 voting members supported a half-percentage-point rate cut, while Bowman preferred a quarter-point cut. Only 12 of the 19 policymakers voted, including eight permanent voters. Historically, dissents have been rare among Fed governors, with most dissenting votes coming from Fed presidents. Bowman's dissent marks a significant moment as it is the first in favor of tighter monetary policy in nearly 30 years. She has been a vocal advocate for a higher Fed policy rate to combat inflation.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Dissent #MonetaryPolicy #MichelleBowman #JeromePowell #Inflation #Economics #FinancialMarkets #PolicyDecisions

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727190 

 US mortgage rates drop to two-year low ahead of US Fed rate cut
==========

US mortgage rates fell to the lowest since September 2022, with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping 14 basis points to 6.15% as of Sept 13, 2024; the 15-year mortgage rate decreased 29 basis points to 5.42%; adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 5.66%; this marks seven consecutive weeks of decline, the longest since 2018-2019; home-purchase applications increased by 5.4%, reaching a three-month high; refinancing applications surged over 24%, the highest since April 2022; the decline in rates is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with a decision anticipated on Sept 18, 2024.

#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #InterestRates #HomePurchases #Refinancing #RealEstate #Economy #Finance #HousingMarket #Us

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727162 

 Dalio sees quarter-point Fed cut as ‘right thing’ for creditors
==========

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggests a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is appropriate for creditors, balancing their need for real returns against the burden on debtors. He stated this during an interview on September 18, 2024, at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. Dalio believes that while a 25 basis point cut is warranted, a 50 basis point cut may be necessary due to worsening mortgage conditions. He emphasized that the Fed's decision this week is not critical for the long term, as real interest rates must remain low to manage rising debts. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, echoed similar sentiments, stating that the rate cut's impact will be minor in the broader economic context.

#RayDalio #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy #Jpmorgan #JamieDimon #MilkenInstitute #Singapore #FinancialPolicy #Debt

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727053 

 US stocks hover near record-high as traders split over Fed rate cut
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US stocks are near record highs as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates; the S&P 500 closed near 5,635; retail sales increased; market-implied odds for a 50-basis-point cut are around 55%; investor reactions vary on potential cuts; a survey shows mixed expectations on market reactions; Treasury yields rose to 3.64%; historical performance indicates a drop of 0.56% in the week following a first rate cut; analysts suggest a 25 or 50 basis-point cut could impact market sentiment; comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are highly anticipated.

#UsStocks #FederalReserve #InterestRates #S&p500 #MarketAnalysis #RetailSales #TreasuryYields #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #JeromePowell

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/727038 

 Thailand to boost borrowing by 8% to US$78 bil to spur growth
==========

Thailand plans to increase government borrowing by 8% to US$78 billion for the fiscal year starting October 2024; approximately 1.1 trillion baht (RM141.57 billion) will be new borrowing for budget deficit financing; the remainder will refinance existing debt; Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra emphasizes urgent economic stimulus; Thailand's economy has averaged 1.9% growth over nearly a decade; government bond sales will raise about 1.3 trillion baht; budget deficit projected at 866 billion baht; government plans to auction 322 billion baht of bonds from October to December 2024.

#Thailand #Borrowing #Economy #Growth #GovernmentBonds #PaetongtarnShinawatra #BudgetDeficit #Finance #PublicDebt #SoutheastAsia

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726917 

 Apollo’s Kleinman says wage, housing inflation to limit Fed cuts
==========

Scott Kleinman, Co-President of Apollo Global Management, states that investors have unrealistic expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in the next year; futures traders are pricing in 10 quarter-point cuts, which Kleinman believes is unlikely without a recession; he notes that wage and housing inflation will restrict the Fed's ability to lower rates; Kleinman spoke at the Livewire Live investment conference in Sydney on September 17, 2024; he emphasizes that the economy is growing more slowly than earlier in the year and warns that markets are overly optimistic, conditioned by a prolonged economic expansion lasting over 14 years.

#FederalReserve #RateCuts #Inflation #Economy #ScottKleinman #ApolloGlobalManagement #Investors #MarketExpectations #Housing #Wages

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726900 

 Wall Street’s early read places debt-cap deadline in mid-2025
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Wall Street forecasts US debt ceiling exhaustion by mid-2025, with focus on July or August; Congress faces potential government shutdown by end of September 2024; current debt-ceiling suspension ends Jan. 1, 2025; Treasury to rely on extraordinary measures and cash reserves; Citigroup's Jason Williams predicts last-minute agreements; Bank of America estimates July deadline; Treasury expected to have over $1 trillion cash in 2025; Fed's quantitative tightening may be affected by Treasury's cash management; Fed Chair Jerome Powell to address rate policy in upcoming meeting.

#DebtCeiling #UsTreasury #Congress #FinancialMarkets #QuantitativeTightening #Citigroup #BankOfAmerica #GovernmentShutdown #CashReserves #EconomicPolicy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726892 

 Wall Street’s early read places debt-cap deadline in mid-2025
==========

Wall Street forecasts US debt ceiling exhaustion by mid-2025, with focus on July or August; Congress faces potential government shutdown by end of September 2024; current debt-ceiling suspension ends Jan. 1, 2025; Treasury to rely on extraordinary measures and cash reserves; Citigroup's Jason Williams predicts last-minute agreements; Bank of America estimates July deadline; Treasury expected to have over $1 trillion cash in 2025; Fed's quantitative tightening may be affected by Treasury's cash management; Fed Chair Jerome Powell to address rate policy in upcoming meeting.

#DebtCeiling #UsTreasury #Congress #FinancialMarkets #QuantitativeTightening #Citigroup #BankOfAmerica #GovernmentShutdown #CashReserves #EconomicPolicy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726892 

 Prioritise nation building, think of the rakyat
==========

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia, emphasizes the importance of nation building and the role of the private sector in economic growth during The Edge Billion Ringgit Club dinner on September 16, 2024; He highlights the challenges of managing fiscal balance due to inherited debt; Calls for innovation and collaboration between public and private sectors; Malaysia to chair ASEAN in 2025, promoting economic integration; Application to BRICS to enhance trade opportunities; Advocates for reforms to improve fiscal sustainability and combat corruption; Stresses the need for a dignified life for all Malaysians.

#Malaysia #AnwarIbrahim #Economy #Asean #Brics #Corruption #NationBuilding #PrivateSector #FiscalPolicy #Innovation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726396 

 US locks in steep China tariff hikes, many to start Sept 27
==========

The Biden administration announced steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, effective Sept 27, 2024; 100% duty on electric vehicles, 50% on solar cells, and 25% on steel, aluminum, EV batteries, and key minerals; 50% duty on semiconductors starting in 2025; minimal adjustments to tariffs on US$18 billion worth of goods; Lael Brainard emphasized the need for 'tough, targeted' tariffs to counter China's subsidies; China plans retaliation against the tariffs; Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are courting voters in key states; EU and Canada also announced new tariffs on Chinese EVs; temporary relief for US port operators regarding cranes; increased tariffs on medical supplies delayed to allow shift to non-Chinese suppliers.

#Tariffs #China #BidenAdministration #ElectricVehicles #Semiconductors #TradePolicy #Retaliation #Harris #Trump #EconomicStrategy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726737 

 Indonesia's Prabowo plans US$65b green fund from selling carbon credits
==========

Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto aims to create a green economy fund by selling carbon credits from projects like rainforest preservation, targeting US$65 billion by 2028; a new carbon emissions regulator will be established to oversee these efforts; the fund aims to reach 1,000 trillion rupiah by 2028; challenges include competition in global carbon markets and ensuring project credibility; Christina Ng from the Energy Shift Institute highlights ambitious financial and operational targets; the incoming government plans to provide seed capital and promote projects internationally; carbon credit prices range from US$5 to US$50 per metric tonne, complicating the fund's target; Indonesia's deforestation rate has declined, but forest fires remain a concern; road shows will be held to attract international investment.

#Indonesia #PrabowoSubianto #GreenFund #CarbonCredits #Emissions #ParisAgreement #Deforestation #ClimatePolicy #Investment #Sustainability

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726736 

 Wells Fargo drops as US seeks fixes to money-laundering controls
==========

Wells Fargo & Co shares fell after a deal with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on September 13, 2024, requiring the bank to improve money laundering detection and compliance with international sanctions; the stock dropped as much as 6.5% before recovering to a 4.3% decline by 2:16 PM in New York; the OCC's agreement does not impose a monetary penalty; Wells Fargo stated it is addressing the required corrective actions with urgency.

#WellsFargo #MoneyLaundering #Occ #StockMarket #FinancialRegulations #Compliance #Sanctions #Banking #Investments #FinancialCrimes

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726652 

 Private debt looks for growth as traditional capital flatlines
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Private debt industry valued at $1.7 trillion; fundraising for institutional investors expected to remain flat in 2024 compared to 2023; 59 traditional private debt funds closed in H1 2024, down from 68 in H1 2023; fundraising volume decreased from $98.9 billion to $90.9 billion; central banks likely to cut interest rates, reducing appeal of floating-rate private debt; private credit firms exploring retail and insurance company investments; notable firms include Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Carlyle Group; Blue Owl Capital acquired Kuvare Asset Management in July 2024, gaining $20 billion in assets; evergreen fund structures gaining popularity with lower fees and flexible capital contributions.

#PrivateDebt #Investment #Fundraising #InstitutionalInvestors #RetailInvestors #InsuranceCompanies #EvergreenFunds #Apollo #GoldmanSachs #Blackrock

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