T Rowe Price sees Treasury 10-year yields hitting 5% in six months
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T Rowe Price's chief investment officer of fixed-income, Arif Husain, predicts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 5% within six months, driven by rising inflation expectations and US fiscal spending concerns; currently, yields are at 4.08%; the last time yields hit 5% was in October 2023; T Rowe Price manages approximately US$180 billion in assets; the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in four years last month; ongoing Treasury issuance is flooding the market, while quantitative tightening by the Fed has reduced demand; Deutsche Bank predicts yields will touch 4.05% by September 2025; the US's debt interest-cost burden is at its highest since the 1990s; Husain suggests positioning for higher long-term Treasury yields as a near-term recession seems unlikely.

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