Private debt looks for growth as traditional capital flatlines
==========

Private debt industry valued at $1.7 trillion; fundraising for institutional investors expected to remain flat in 2024 compared to 2023; 59 traditional private debt funds closed in H1 2024, down from 68 in H1 2023; fundraising volume decreased from $98.9 billion to $90.9 billion; central banks likely to cut interest rates, reducing appeal of floating-rate private debt; private credit firms exploring retail and insurance company investments; notable firms include Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Carlyle Group; Blue Owl Capital acquired Kuvare Asset Management in July 2024, gaining $20 billion in assets; evergreen fund structures gaining popularity with lower fees and flexible capital contributions.

#PrivateDebt #Investment #Fundraising #InstitutionalInvestors #RetailInvestors #InsuranceCompanies #EvergreenFunds #Apollo #GoldmanSachs #Blackrock

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726645 

 US producer prices pick up slightly after downward revisions
==========

US producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased 0.2% in August 2024 from July, which was revised to a flat reading; year-over-year PPI rose 1.7%, the least since early 2024; PPI excluding food and energy climbed 0.3% in August and 2.4% year-over-year; services costs rose 0.4%, driven by guestroom rentals; prices of goods remained unchanged; initial unemployment insurance filings rose slightly for the week ending Sept 7; Fed projected to cut rates amid concerns about labor market durability; August PCE price gauge data due later this month.

#UsEconomy #ProducerPrices #Inflation #FederalReserve #Ppi #EconomicData #InterestRates #Unemployment #ConsumerPrices #FinancialMarkets

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726616 

 Goldman Sachs to sell SRT tied to US$3b of leveraged loans
==========

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is selling significant risk transfer (SRT) tied to a portfolio of approximately US$3 billion of leveraged loans; the deal involves notes linked to revolving credit facilities and term loans; terms are under discussion with potential investors; Basel III Endgame rules are expected to increase regulatory capital requirements by 9% for the eight largest US banks; SRTs have gained popularity, particularly among European banks; investors typically receive a floating-rate coupon with yields often exceeding 10%; the announcement was made on September 12, 2024.

#GoldmanSachs #Srt #LeveragedLoans #BaselIii #FinancialRegulation #Investors #CreditRisk #CapitalRequirements #FloatingrateCoupon #UsBanks

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726547 

 Oil’s fall into US$60s widens runway for global economy to make soft landing
==========

Brent crude oil fell below US$70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021; forecasts suggest prices could drop to US$60 in 2025; Tim Drayson from Legal & General Investment Management states soft landing probabilities increase for the US and Europe; ECB expected to cut rates on September 14, 2024; US Federal Reserve likely to begin easing on September 18, 2024; Christof Ruehl from Columbia University highlights benefits for central banks; global oil production expected to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day; SHOK model predicts a US$60 oil price could reduce inflation by 0.4 percentage points in the US and Europe; Janet Yellen describes the US economy as experiencing a soft landing; TS Lombard's Freya Beamish notes lower crude prices could stimulate US consumer purchasing power.

#OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #BrentCrude #MonetaryPolicy #UsEconomy #Ecb #FederalReserve #Commodities

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726344 

 Oil’s fall into US$60s widens runway for global economy to make soft landing
==========

Brent crude oil fell below US$70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021; forecasts suggest prices could drop to US$60 in 2025; Tim Drayson from Legal & General Investment Management states soft landing probabilities increase for the US and Europe; ECB expected to cut rates on September 14, 2024; US Federal Reserve likely to begin easing on September 18, 2024; Christof Ruehl from Columbia University highlights benefits for central banks; global oil production expected to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day; SHOK model predicts a US$60 oil price could reduce inflation by 0.4 percentage points in the US and Europe; Janet Yellen describes the US economy as experiencing a soft landing; TS Lombard's Freya Beamish notes lower crude prices could stimulate US consumer purchasing power.

#OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #BrentCrude #MonetaryPolicy #UsEconomy #Ecb #FederalReserve #Commodities

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726344 

 Real US household income rose in 2023 for first time in four years
==========

Real US household income increased by 4% in 2023, the first annual gain since 2019; median income reached US$80,610 compared to US$77,540 in 2022; incomes remain US$600 lower than in 2019; White households saw income increases while Black, Asian, and Hispanic families saw no significant change; real median earnings for full-time working men rose twice as fast as women; official US poverty rate fell to 11.1%, while supplemental poverty measure rose to 12.9%; economic issues are central in the presidential election campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris proposing tax credits and lower prescription drug costs, while Donald Trump blames the Biden Administration for high living costs.

#UsEconomy #HouseholdIncome #PovertyRate #Inflation #2023 #PresidentialElection #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #CensusBureau #IncomeReport

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726266 

 US small business sentiment ebbs in August amid rising uncertainty
==========

US small-business confidence fell in August 2024, with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reporting a 2.5 point drop in the Small Business Optimism Index to 91.2; this follows a surge in July to the highest level since February 2022. The Uncertainty Index rose two points to 92, the highest since October 2020, amid concerns over the upcoming Nov 5 presidential election and weak sales expectations. Economists noted that small business sentiment may be influenced by political factors, particularly with the tight contest between President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump. The net share of businesses expecting higher inflation-adjusted sales volumes fell nine points to -18%. Forty percent of owners reported unfilled job openings, primarily in skilled positions within transportation, construction, and manufacturing. Plans for job creation declined, while capital investment intentions increased. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, following a year of maintaining rates between 5.25%-5.50%.

#SmallBusiness #OptimismIndex #EconomicOutlook #Inflation #JobOpenings #PresidentialElection #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CapitalInvestment #Uncertainty

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726257 

 BOJ said to see little need to hike key rate next week
==========

Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials see little need to raise the benchmark rate at 0.25% during the meeting on Sept 20, 2024; they are monitoring financial market volatility and the impact of the July rate hike; the Nikkei 225 experienced its largest plunge in history on Aug 5, 2024; most economists expect the BOJ to wait until December or January for another rate hike; second-quarter economic growth was slightly slower than initially estimated but remains strong; Deputy governor Shinichi Uchida stated rates won't rise during market instability; the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election on Sept 27, 2024, may influence future monetary policy; BOJ officials are also observing potential weaknesses in the US economy; the BOJ's policy board meeting coincides with expected US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

#Boj #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Japan #Economy #FinancialMarkets #Nikkei225 #UsEconomy #Politics #Inflation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726205 

 Coal India to spend US$8 bil on coal-fired plants near mines
==========

Coal India Ltd plans to invest about 670 billion rupees (US$8 billion) to build coal-fired power plants near its mines; approval for 4.7GW of generation secured for construction over the next six to seven years, primarily in Odisha; an additional 2GW under discussion; part of a broader plan to add 88GW of thermal generation capacity by 2032; electricity demand in India expected to surge, maintaining reliance on coal, which constitutes around 75% of the power mix; Coal India aims to also develop renewable energy and critical minerals; India targets net zero by 2070; environmentalists criticize the government for insufficient decarbonization efforts.

#CoalIndia #Investment #CoalfiredPlants #RenewableEnergy #India #ElectricityDemand #NetZero #Environment #ThermalGeneration #Odisha

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726203 

 Hedge funds flock to Japan as market heats up
==========

Japan's hedge fund sector sees a net increase of over 10 funds since 2023; at least five more funds are launching in Q3 and Q4 2024; hedge fund liquidations in Asia outpace launches due to China's market struggles; Japanese equity markets reached all-time highs in July 2024; Soichi Utsumi of Shinka Capital Management highlights positive changes in Japan's economy; ActusRayPartners plans to launch a new Japan strategy targeting US$100 million; Tetsuo Ochi of MCP Group notes rising interest rates benefit long-short strategies; Dai-ichi Life invests 10 billion yen (US$70 million) in a new fund to support emerging managers.

#HedgeFunds #Japan #Investment #MarketTrends #Finance #Equity #Economy #CapitalMarkets #FundLaunches #InterestRates

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726069 

 Risk-on momentum in stocks succumbs to mounting growth worries
==========

The stock market rally is faltering due to growth concerns; S&P 500 fell 4.25% last week; Nasdaq 100 experienced its largest drop since November 2022; US payrolls growth data indicates a cooling labor market; global growth worries include China and Germany; Federal Reserve interest-rate cut anticipated; S&P 500 up 13% in 2024; MSCI World Index up 10%; strategists predict only 1% gain for S&P by end of 2024; Nvidia Corp. significantly influences market sentiment; geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainties add to market risks; Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are key candidates; potential corporate tax changes could impact S&P 500 earnings; market sentiment expected to remain fragile.

#Stocks #Market #Economy #Growth #S&p500 #Nvidia #FederalReserve #UsElection #China #Germany

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725977 

 New Thai PM to push ahead with cash stimulus to revive economy
==========

Thailand's new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, sworn in on September 7, 2024, plans to implement a US$14 billion cash stimulus to combat low growth and household debt. The digital wallet program will provide 10,000 baht to 50 million adults, with 14.5 million expected to benefit in the first phase. Paetongtarn, the youngest leader at 38, aims to continue previous policies to boost tourism and agriculture. The Thai economy is projected to grow 2.5% this year, lagging behind neighbors. She is the third Shinawatra family member to lead Thailand and faces challenges in maintaining her coalition and attracting foreign investment.

#Thailand #Economy #Stimulus #PaetongtarnShinawatra #CashHandout #Tourism #ForeignInvestment #ShinawatraFamily #Politics #HouseholdDebt

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725948 

 My Say: Malaysia sees economic optimism through increased IPOs and GLIC investments
==========

Malaysia's economy shows resilience with a Q2 GDP of 5.9%; IPO proceeds for the first seven months of 2024 rose 15% year on year to US$674 million; Johor Plantations Group raised RM735 million, marking the largest IPO in over two years; Bursa Malaysia targets 42 IPOs in 2024; GLICs committed RM120 billion in domestic direct investment over five years; key sectors for investment include electrical and electronics, palm oil, sustainable energy, and pharmaceuticals; Bank Negara Malaysia projects GDP growth at the upper end of 4% to 5%; potential risks include global economic volatility and interest rate fluctuations.

#Malaysia #Economy #Ipos #Glics #Gdp #Investments #BursaMalaysia #FinancialMarkets #EconomicGrowth #Sectors

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725641 

 Musk dares the world to take on X as he scoffs at Brazil’s ban
==========

Brazil bans X amid disinformation concerns; Musk challenges global response; Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes leads inquiry into Musk's influence; Musk's support for Bolsonaro complicates matters; 51% oppose Moraes's ban; EU warns X over harmful content; US regulators lack authority due to Section 230; Musk's Starlink accounts frozen; local elections in Brazil test Bolsonaro's movement; potential for X's return depends on Musk's compliance.

#ElonMusk #Brazil #X #Disinformation #SocialMedia #SupremeCourt #Bolsonaro #FreedomOfExpression #Eu #Us

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725937 

 Oaktree’s Marks says Fed cuts won’t take US rates below 3%
==========

Howard Marks, co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, stated that US interest rates will settle between 3% and 4% after Federal Reserve cuts, which are expected to begin in September 2024. He believes rates will not return to zero or near-zero levels, emphasizing that the emergency over inflation has ended. The Fed's meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, 2024, with traders divided on the extent of cuts. Oaktree manages US$193 billion as of June 30, 2024, and Marks noted that economic growth may slow and profit margins could erode, indicating a return to a 'normal' economic state. He also expressed confidence that China will not isolate itself globally, needing global cooperation to achieve its growth targets.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #OaktreeCapital #HowardMarks #EconomicGrowth #China #Inflation #FinancialMarkets #Investment #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725608 

 Subway eyes $2.3 billion asset-backed debt sale
==========

Subway plans to borrow $2.3 billion through asset-backed securities; this is the second time in 2024 the company is tapping this market; Subway was purchased by Roark Capital Group in April 2024; in May 2024, it sold $3.35 billion in bonds backed by franchisee fees, marking the largest securitization of its kind; the latest sale is led by Barclays Plc and Morgan Stanley; it will refinance a term loan and includes restaurants worldwide; the deal would be the fourth largest whole business securitization; previous Subway bond offering saw nearly $20 billion in orders; overall ABS market issuance is up to $242 billion this year compared to $192 billion last year.

#Subway #DebtSale #AssetbackedSecurities #RoarkCapital #Bonds #Barclays #MorganStanley #Franchise #FinancialMarket #Securitization

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725451 

 Goldman sees US GDP hit if Trump wins, boost if Democrats sweep
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Goldman Sachs economists predict US GDP could decline by 0.5 percentage points in the second half of 2025 if Donald Trump wins the November election due to tariffs and tighter immigration policies; a 20-percentage-point increase in China tariffs and reduced immigration are expected; if Kamala Harris wins with Democratic control of Congress, GDP growth could see a slight boost due to new spending and expanded tax credits; in a divided government scenario with Harris, policy changes would have neutral effects; Trump's campaign argues forecasters underestimated growth post-2016; Goldman expects immigration under Harris to be 1.5 million annually, compared to 1.25 million under Trump; Trump's tariffs could lead to a 30-40 basis point inflation increase.

#GoldmanSachs #UsGdp #Trump #Harris #Election #Economy #Tariffs #Immigration #Inflation #Politics

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725443 

 Harris says US Steel should remain American owned and run
==========

Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden declared that US Steel Corp should remain American-owned, opposing its proposed sale to Japan's Nippon Steel Corp; Harris emphasized the importance of US Steel as a historic American company during a Labor Day event in Pittsburgh on September 3, 2024; Biden reiterated his stance, stating US Steel will remain an American company; the deal, valued at US$14.10 billion, faces opposition from the United Steelworkers union and local senators; Nippon Steel announced an additional US$1.3 billion investment in US Steel's unionized mills; the takeover is under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US; the political debate intensifies ahead of the November elections.

#UsSteel #KamalaHarris #JoeBiden #NipponSteel #LaborDay #UnitedSteelworkers #Pennsylvania #Takeover #Investment #Politics

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725281 

 Steel industry leaders in US have high hopes for revival in 2025
==========

American steel executives express optimism for a demand rebound in 2025; driven by an improving US economy and large infrastructure projects; Mike Barnett, president of Grand Steel Products, highlights consumer spending as a key factor; Nippon Steel Corp's proposed US$14.10 billion takeover of US Steel Corp faces political opposition; steel demand in H1 2024 was 50.9 million tons, down 0.4% from last year; US steel futures down 37% since January; Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts; Biden's Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act of 2021 allocates US$550 billion for steel projects; CRU analyst Alexandra Anderson warns of challenges with new steel capacity; US raw steel production rose 1.1% in 2023 to 89.7 million net tons; ongoing trade issues with cheap foreign steel and global price slumps; US presidential election could impact investor sentiment.

#SteelIndustry #UsEconomy #Infrastructure #NipponSteel #UsSteel #BidenAdministration #MarketOutlook #TradeIssues #PresidentialElection #ConsumerSpending

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725118 

 Hunt for Fed-pivot winners sparks a rush to Malaysia, Indonesia
==========

Global investors are increasing investments in Indonesia and Malaysia due to expectations of benefits from US Federal Reserve monetary easing; sound fiscal policies and emerging tech sectors like EVs and data centers are attracting funds; John Lin from AllianceBernstein highlights responsible fiscal behavior as a key factor; Indonesia saw US$1.80 billion in foreign stock purchases, the highest since April 2022; Malaysia's foreign stock buying reached US$491 million, the highest since March 2022; both countries are experiencing significant economic growth; risks include leadership transitions and potential volatility in AI investments; optimism is high with upgrades from Nomura and HSBC; the ringgit and rupiah are among the top gainers against the dollar; Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential rate cut in September.

#Investment #SoutheastAsia #Indonesia #Malaysia #FederalReserve #Economy #Stocks #Technology #PalmOil #ForeignInvestment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725074 

 The Week Ahead: Bank Negara OPR decision, implementation of US tariff on Chinese imports in focus
==========

Bank Negara Malaysia's monetary policy decision is expected on Sept 5, 2024, with a consensus to maintain the policy rate at 3%; US to finalize tariff increases on Chinese imports, including EVs and semiconductors, with tariffs rising from 25% to 100% for EVs by 2024; President Biden announced tariffs worth US$18 billion in May 2024; US and China to hold a work meeting on Sept 7, 2024, co-chaired by Wang Shouwen and Marisa Lago; Bank of Canada to announce a policy rate decision on Sept 4, 2024; US employment data for August to be released on Sept 6, 2024, with estimates of 165,000 non-farm payroll increase; Asian countries to release August CPI data starting Sept 2, 2024.

#BankNegara #UsTariffs #China #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #Cpi #Employment #Evs #Semiconductors #Biden

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725064 

 US fiscal profile unlikely to change much after elections, says Fitch
==========

Fitch Ratings affirmed the U.S. credit rating at 'AA+' on Aug 29, 2024; predicts U.S. fiscal profile remains unchanged post elections; highlights high fiscal deficits and debt burden; Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll; upcoming elections on Nov. 5, 2024, crucial for U.S. economic policies; tax cuts from 2017 likely to be extended; Fitch downgraded U.S. credit rating last year after debt ceiling agreement raised borrowing limit to $31.4 trillion; U.S. governance standards below 'AA' rated peers.

#FitchRatings #UsEconomy #CreditRating #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #FiscalPolicy #Debt #Elections #TaxCuts #Governance

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724929 

 Asian stocks set to rebound after upbeat US data
==========

Asian stocks are expected to rise following positive US growth data indicating a potential soft landing for the economy; US equity futures in Australia surged while Japan's edged higher; the S&P 500 closed near 5,590, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching an all-time high; the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 2.6%; the US economy showed stronger growth in Q2, with consumer spending revised upward; analysts suggest that as long as the tech sector remains stable, market gains could continue; traders are watching Tokyo inflation data for potential Bank of Japan rate hikes; Commonwealth Bank strategists predict another BOJ rate increase later this year; US Treasuries experienced slight losses, with a $44 billion seven-year note sale; the yield on 10-year bonds rose to 3.86%; oil prices increased due to strong economic data and supply issues in Libya.

#AsianStocks #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #Inflation #MarketTrends #Nikkei225 #S&p500 #OilPrices #Treasuries #BankOfJapan

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724902 

 Citigroup sticks to bullish dollar call as election draws near
==========

Citigroup Inc. maintains a bullish outlook on the US dollar ahead of the presidential election in November 2024, despite the dollar's potential steepest monthly drop since December 2023. The bank's foreign-exchange strategy team predicts a rally against various currencies, including the euro, Chinese yuan, and Mexican peso, influenced by the possibility of a Donald Trump victory. The dollar has fallen approximately 1.7% in August 2024, attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. The strategists note that the economy's performance and Fed pricing will likely be more significant for the dollar's direction than the election itself.

#Citigroup #UsDollar #PresidentialElection #DonaldTrump #FederalReserve #CurrencyStrategy #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724901 

 Saudi Arabia signals ambition to host Olympic Games
==========

Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is considering a bid to host the Olympic Games as part of its economic transformation agenda. Prince Faisal bin Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud stated that hosting the Olympics is a logical step for the country. The kingdom has invested heavily in sports, including a record US$60 million prize pot for the first Esports World Cup held in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has a 12-year deal with the International Olympic Committee to host the inaugural Esports Olympics in 2025 and will host the Asian Winter Games in 2029 and the FIFA World Cup in 2034. The Olympics will be hosted by Italy, the US, France, and Australia from 2026 to 2032, with Egypt and Qatar also considering bids for future events.

#SaudiArabia #Olympics #CrownPrince #Sports #Esports #EconomicTransformation #FifaWorldCup #AsianWinterGames #InternationalOlympicCommittee #PrinceFaisal

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724597 

 US consumer confidence rises in August
==========

US consumer confidence index increased to 103.3 in August 2024 from 101.9 in July; economists expected little change at 100.3; Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, noted weakening assessments of the current labour situation; share of consumers viewing jobs as 'plentiful' fell to 32.8% from 33.4%; 16.4% of consumers said jobs were 'hard to get', up from 16.3%; Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated imminent interest rate cuts; financial markets expect a 25-basis-point rate reduction next month; benchmark interest rate maintained at 5.25%-5.50% for over a year; consumers' 12-month inflation expectations dropped to 4.9%, lowest since March 2020.

#ConsumerConfidence #LabourMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #Us #August2024 #ConferenceBoard #DanaPeterson

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724524 

 Special Report: Data centres crucial to draw investments
==========

Minister of Digital Gobind Singh Deo emphasizes the importance of data centres for the digital economy; Malaysia saw a 23% year-on-year increase in approved investments to RM329.5 billion in 2023; digital economy contributed 23% to GDP from 2021 to 2023, with a target of 25.5% by 2025; Google invested US$2 billion in a data centre in Shah Alam, expected to support 26,500 jobs and generate RM15.04 billion in economic impact; criticism exists regarding data centres' value addition and resource consumption; Gobind advocates for embracing data centre investments to attract global investments and enhance economic performance.

#DataCentres #DigitalEconomy #Investments #Ai #Malaysia #GobindSinghDeo #Google #Gdp #EconomicImpact #Infrastructure

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/723476 

 Malaysia, India to upgrade bilateral FTA — Zafrul
==========

Malaysia and India aim to enhance their economic relationship through an upgraded Free Trade Agreement (FTA) following Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's visit to New Delhi; Anwar and Indian PM Narendra Modi discussed cooperation in digital economy, semiconductor manufacturing, AI, infrastructure, food security, and tourism; Investment Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz announced plans to upgrade the Malaysia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (Miceca) signed in 2011; Both prime ministers set a three-month timeframe to identify focus areas for the upgrade; Trade between Malaysia and India reached US$16.5 billion in 2023; Malaysia is the 11th largest destination for Indian exports and 12th largest source of imports; Malaysia's exports of electrical and electronics products to India have increased, while the share of primary commodities has decreased; Anwar highlighted the semiconductor sector's potential for cooperation, noting Malaysia's position as the sixth largest semiconductor exporter.

#Malaysia #India #Fta #Trade #Semiconductors #Economy #AnwarIbrahim #NarendraModi #Zafrul #Miceca

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724131 

 US Fed’s preferred price gauge to reinforce rate cuts
==========

US inflation figures expected to support imminent interest-rate cuts; core inflation projected to rise 0.2% in July, annualized rate at 2.1%; consumer spending forecasted to increase 0.5%, strongest in four months; Fed chair Jerome Powell acknowledges progress on inflation at Jackson Hole symposium; second-quarter GDP revision expected at 2.8% growth; Canadian GDP data suggests 2.2% growth ahead of rate cuts on September 4; eurozone inflation data due, expected slowdown from July's 2.6%; Brazil's inflation data may show easing from 4.45%; Mexico's central bank to release quarterly inflation report.

#UsFed #Inflation #InterestRates #Gdp #ConsumerSpending #Canada #Eurozone #Brazil #MonetaryPolicy #Economy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724129 

 US Fed mortgage bond holdings play 'central' policy rule, paper says
==========

Federal Reserve mortgage bond holdings are crucial for monetary policy; paper presented at Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Aug 25, 2024; Fed's bond purchases since spring 2020 increased holdings to around US$9 trillion by summer 2022; mortgage bond holdings rose from US$1.4 trillion in March 2022 to US$2.7 trillion; paper states banks and Fed each reduced mortgage spread by about 40 bps during 2020/21, leading to US$3 trillion increase in mortgage originations; current Fed holdings down to US$7.3 trillion, with mortgage holdings at US$2.3 trillion; QT process slower than expected due to housing market conditions.

#FederalReserve #MortgageBonds #MonetaryPolicy #QuantitativeEasing #QuantitativeTightening #HousingMarket #Economics #InterestRates #JacksonHole #FinancialMarkets

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724123 

 Market pricing in too many Fed rate cuts, El-Erian warns
==========

Mohamed El-Erian warns that traders are overestimating the number of US Federal Reserve rate cuts expected by year end; he suggests a more realistic easing of 75 basis points instead of the market's expectation of up to 100 basis points; Fed minutes indicated a case for cuts discussed in July; employment growth data supports the likelihood of cuts; traders are looking for insights during the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak on the economic outlook.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #MohamedElerian #MarketExpectations #EconomicOutlook #JacksonHole #Treasuries #EmploymentData #RateCuts #FinancialMarkets

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724024 

 Wall Street braces for ‘reality check’ from Powell
==========

Wall Street anticipates Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole; bond yields rise and stocks decline as traders expect less aggressive interest-rate cuts; Treasuries fall, particularly shorter maturities; S&P 500 drops 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 falls 1.7%; Powell likely to favor gradual rate cuts, with Fed officials suggesting a measured approach; Andrew Brenner notes Fed easing expected in September but not 50 basis points; Mohamed El-Erian warns market overestimates rate cuts; jobless claims indicate gradual labor market cooling; US manufacturing shrinks, existing-home sales rise.

#WallStreet #JeromePowell #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Stocks #Bonds #Economy #MarketAnalysis #JacksonHole #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/723951 

 Investors advised to stay invested after global rout
==========

Investors were unsettled by a global equity sell-off on August 12, 2024, with the Nikkei 225 dropping 12.4% due to the unwinding of Japanese yen carry trades and US growth concerns; the FBM KLCI fell 4.6% to 1,536.48 points, its worst day since March 2020, but recovered to 1,590.38 points by August 15, 2024; analysts recommend staying invested, citing potential in tech and blue-chip stocks; US GDP grew 2.8% in Q2 2024, but weak employment data raises recession fears; Bank of Japan's Kazuo Ueda defends rate hikes; expectations for US rate cuts next month; MIDF Research sets FBM KLCI year-end target at 1,750; foreign investors net bought RM299.6m in Malaysian equities last week.

#Investors #GlobalMarket #Equities #Nikkei225 #FbmKlci #BankOfJapan #UsEconomy #TechStocks #Bluechip #InvestmentStrategy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/722594 

 Alternative Views: Global market volatility — expect the unexpected
==========

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps in September 2024; current rate is between 5.25% and 5.5%; US inflation rate at 2.9%, lowest since 2021; US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July 2024; concerns about a possible recession; China’s Q2 2024 growth at 4.7%, below expectations; China’s economy still recovering from a property bubble; Japan raised interest rates from 0% to 0.25% on July 31, 2024; US$1 trillion in cross-border loans from Japan; yen currently at 148 against the US dollar; potential for market volatility if Fed does not cut rates; global capital markets recovering post-August 5 turmoil; Malaysia’s FBM KLCI index above 1,600 points; ringgit at RM4.42 against the dollar.

#UsFederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #ChinaEconomy #Japan #MarketVolatility #Recession #EconomicGrowth #YenCarryTrades #Malaysia

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/723273 

 Japan’s economy sees consumption-led rebound in tailwind for BOJ
==========

Japan's economy rebounded in Q2 with a 3.1% annualized growth, driven by an increase in private consumption; The rebound in personal spending is attributed to wage increases and a tax rebate; The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is looking for evidence that wage gains will spur personal spending and generate stable demand-led inflation; BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the board would continue hiking rates if economic data were in line with forecasts; The data create a supportive background for the government as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prepares to select a new prime minister; Private spending is expected to gain momentum with recent wage growth; Recent strengthening of the yen may soothe shoppers' concerns about price hikes; Japan's exports have increased for seven months through June, supported by demand for chip-making gear; Japan continues to benefit from inbound tourism; A record 17.8 million foreign visitors came to Japan in H1 2024, spending ¥2.1 trillion in Q2 2024; The yen has recently gained amid expectations of a narrowing US-Japan interest rate gap; The International Monetary Fund warns of a potential risk to global growth from interest rates staying higher for longer.

#Japan #Economy #BankOfJapan #Consumption #WageGains #Inflation #Government #LiberalDemocraticParty #Exports #Tourism #Yen #InterestRates #GlobalGrowth

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/722854