US small business sentiment ebbs in August amid rising uncertainty
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US small-business confidence fell in August 2024, with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reporting a 2.5 point drop in the Small Business Optimism Index to 91.2; this follows a surge in July to the highest level since February 2022. The Uncertainty Index rose two points to 92, the highest since October 2020, amid concerns over the upcoming Nov 5 presidential election and weak sales expectations. Economists noted that small business sentiment may be influenced by political factors, particularly with the tight contest between President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump. The net share of businesses expecting higher inflation-adjusted sales volumes fell nine points to -18%. Forty percent of owners reported unfilled job openings, primarily in skilled positions within transportation, construction, and manufacturing. Plans for job creation declined, while capital investment intentions increased. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, following a year of maintaining rates between 5.25%-5.50%.

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