Goldman sees US GDP hit if Trump wins, boost if Democrats sweep
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Goldman Sachs economists predict US GDP could decline by 0.5 percentage points in the second half of 2025 if Donald Trump wins the November election due to tariffs and tighter immigration policies; a 20-percentage-point increase in China tariffs and reduced immigration are expected; if Kamala Harris wins with Democratic control of Congress, GDP growth could see a slight boost due to new spending and expanded tax credits; in a divided government scenario with Harris, policy changes would have neutral effects; Trump's campaign argues forecasters underestimated growth post-2016; Goldman expects immigration under Harris to be 1.5 million annually, compared to 1.25 million under Trump; Trump's tariffs could lead to a 30-40 basis point inflation increase.
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https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725443
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