The global liquidity argument is so fucking stupid. Banks are increasing global liquidity because they're worried about a recession. Some places, like China, are dealing with deflation, which is bearish for bitcoin. And liquidity doesn't mean shit if there is a liquidity trap.
And the US is actually draining liquidity. Rates have stopped coming down, and the fed is doing QT. These bitcoiners make no fucking sense.
They say the government is causing inflation, but inflation has come down. It's like they live in a different reality.
Alrighty then, picture this, if you will.
10 to 2 a.m., X, Yogi DMT and a box of Krispy Kremes, in my need-to-know post just outside of Area 51. Contemplating the whole "Chosen People" thingy, when just a flaming stealth banana split the sky, like one would hope, but never really expect to see in a place like this.
Cutting right angle donuts on a dime and stopping right on my Birkenstocks, and me yelping, "Holy fucking shit!"
https://youtu.be/qnlhVVwBfew
Bond yields keep rising, the dollar keeps going up, and inflation isn't coming down. This is bearish. Low rates boosts asset prices, and high rates have the opposite effect. Rates will stay higher for longer.
It's already starting. Rich people are taking profits, which means this is the top. Buffet hoarding cash is a good sign the top is near. And Saylor always buys the top, so that's another signal.
I'm just going to buy short term bonds or something. It's fucking impossible to make money in this market. Or maybe I'll finally buy bitcoin seeing how my money is worthless.
It's just fucking impossible. I've been trying to save for years, and my savings just got wiped out by the pandemic and inflation. Gambling on stocks isn't working. Wages aren't enough. I basically have to take on as much debt as humanly possible.
Here's something I wrote in 2022. Maybe some of you can relate to it.
Euphoria
Like the pills I used take, or the cocaine up my nose
Like heroin and oxycontin running through my veins
Or a bottle of whiskey, and portfolio gains
Like the weed that I smoke, I'm as high as a kite
And I'm euphoric as fuck
I'm a liberal, but all of my friends are conservatives. We are all working class. I know exactly why so many people voted for Trump. The fact that so many liberals have no clue is a problem.
If Trump wins, it's because Americans are angry at the system. The fact that democrats don't understand is insane. They are so wealthy, they can't possibly understand how normal people feel.
It fucking sucks being a centrist. Both sides are illiberal populists who are fiscally irresponsible. Both sides ignore real issues and instead focuses on the culture war. It's disgusting. It's better to just get high and ignore politics.
I'm so bullish on the dollar. Rates aren't going to come down soon, and people need dollars to pay debt. High rates makes debt more expensive. The US economy is still doing great, and that's also bullish for the dollar. I'm even more bullish if Trump wins.
Just surprised nobody is mentioning rates or inflation. The US can't handle higher rates with this much debt, so that's kind of a big problem. Either rates have to come down, likely through a recession, or there could be very bad inflation. The macro situation is kinda messed up.
I'm worried that inflation won't come down, and rates will go up. Inflation could get quite bad if that happens, but it's unlikely.
I think what is more likely is taxes will go up, and there will be cuts to spending, which would allow rates to come down. It would also likely cause a recession, IMO.
I can't believe people think the election matters. There is basically no difference between Trump and Harris on the economy. The only differences are cultural issues.
Why are people so split on the economy? Half think it's great, and the other half think it's terrible. It's like people are living in different worlds.
It'll crash when this bubble finally pops. Or the dollar will become worthless. I've given up betting on a crash, and I'm starting to think stagflation is more likely.
Everything is historically expensive right now. People only talk about forward P/E ratios, and everything is priced for perfection. There is unreasonable optimism among investors, even as the rest of the world is dealing with economic problems. There is a record amount of debt, globally. There are many similarities, but also some big differences, to the 1920s. I think this is a massive global bubble in asset prices.
It also looks like a crack up boom. There are signs this could end in hyperinflation. I think a soft landing is very unlikely.
America is also very similar to Japan in the 80s. When there is this much debt, it is very difficult to avoid a recession. And a recession leads to debt deflation. Then, a liquidity trap follows. This is what happened in the 1930s, and it happened in Japan.
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