This could be bad, real bad


So many people don't understand anything about economics. It's kinda fucking scary. People just go with whatever the popular narrative is.


This is the top. Half the country is going to start selling.


Hindsight is 20/20, but I prefer to know things in advance.


Bullish on the dollar, bearish on stocks


America won't get hyperinflation, they'll get debt deflation.


Trump was the bearish option. The democrats definitely would have caused stagflation.


A Trump win is so fucking bearish


The rise of populism and illiberalism is why we need #nostr. Freedom of speech is under attack from both sides.


I'm a liberal, but all of my friends are conservatives. We are all working class. I know exactly why so many people voted for Trump. The fact that so many liberals have no clue is a problem.


If Trump wins, it's because Americans are angry at the system. The fact that democrats don't understand is insane. They are so wealthy, they can't possibly understand how normal people feel.


Trump was already president once, how bad can the second time be? I feel like liberals are being a little dramatic.


It fucking sucks being a centrist. Both sides are illiberal populists who are fiscally irresponsible. Both sides ignore real issues and instead focuses on the culture war. It's disgusting. It's better to just get high and ignore politics.


I'm starting to think these perma bulls are right. Maybe stocks really do only go up.


Everyone is going to want dollars when the global recession starts


I'm so bullish on the dollar. Rates aren't going to come down soon, and people need dollars to pay debt. High rates makes debt more expensive. The US economy is still doing great, and that's also bullish for the dollar. I'm even more bullish if Trump wins.


There will be a recession. There is no such thing as soft landings. Or, there will be stagflation.


I'm worried that inflation won't come down, and rates will go up. Inflation could get quite bad if that happens, but it's unlikely.

I think what is more likely is taxes will go up, and there will be cuts to spending, which would allow rates to come down. It would also likely cause a recession, IMO.


Both parties want to raise taxes, and both parties will continue spending. They have almost identical economic policies.


Just surprised nobody is mentioning rates or inflation. The US can't handle higher rates with this much debt, so that's kind of a big problem. Either rates have to come down, likely through a recession, or there could be very bad inflation. The macro situation is kinda messed up.


Oh, I don't know much about anarchism, but punk is good. I'm more into economics, stuff like Mises and Marx.


I guess there aren't many people who are into macroeconomics on #nostr. It's mostly just bitcoin bulls.


I don't know what that is. I'm more of a thrash metal kinda guy


As a liberal, I'm terrified of Trump winning. But as a bear, I'm very excited.


Trump is going to take a chainsaw to the economy


Every single poor person voted for Trump after months of being gaslit by politicians and the media. Democrats are so fucking out of touch.


I hope Trump wins so this can finally crash


The democrats are so out of touch, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose


I'm pretty excited for tariffs, ngl


I can't believe people think the election matters. There is basically no difference between Trump and Harris on the economy. The only differences are cultural issues.


Trump is actually so bad for the price of crypto. Most of his policies are good for the dollar.


No matter who wins the election, the other half of the country will sell. Both sides think the other side is terrible.


Everyone is worried about the election when they should be worried about the economy


Why does reality look so different from the numbers? I know my eyes aren't lying to me.


Why are people so split on the economy? Half think it's great, and the other half think it's terrible. It's like people are living in different worlds.


Rates are never coming down. Everyone will want dollars.


America is going to end up like Argentina if the deficit keeps growing. Inflation will never come down, which means rates will stay high.


Printing money isn't a solution to debt. Just look at Japan.


Everything is fucked no matter who wins. Either there will be a crash, or more money printing. Either way there will be a recession.


Bonds are starting to become a pretty good deal


Rates are as low as they're ever going to go. The dollar can't be devalued anymore. If they keep printing money, everyone will ditch the dollar.


The US economy is dangerously distorted


Time is running out. High rates combined with higher taxes will bring this thing down.


People have been brainwashed into buying every dip. This crash is going to be huge


Warren Buffet is the GOAT


We will never see ATHs again


The global economy is in shambles


The US economy is rotten to the core. It only looks good on the outside


This crash is going to be fucking epic


Once the selling starts, it'll never stop


This shit is gonna crash no matter who wins. There is no bullish scenario.


The bubble is about to burst


Definitely not. AI isn't smart enough to make bitcoin


This is the top if you haven't noticed yet


There is no way bitcoin was made by 1 person. It was definitely a group of people. Finney came up with the name, Back came up with the genesis block. Multiple people were posting as satoshi, and multiple people made the software. I strongly suspect Szabo knew about it, and was involved. Craig Wright knows Finney was Satoshi. Kleiman and Dai were probably involved. There is no way 1 person could have made bitcoin.


I think Satoshi is a group of people, led by Hal Finney. I think Nick Szabo and Adam Back were in that group.


I'm pretty sure Szabo was the guy on the bus, and I'm pretty sure he was in Vancouver in January 2008. But it was so long ago, I can't be certain.


Szabo is satoshi


I'm pretty sure it was nick szabo


About tree fiddy


I can't wait for this election to be over. It's all americans are talking about. Nothing will change no matter who wins.


Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon


The US is the world's largest economy. Who wouldn't want dollars?


Decentralized technology combined with cryptography is pretty cool. I wonder what else it could do?


I'm so tired of all these fake satoshis. If satoshi is even still alive, why would he ever reveal himself? If satoshi is still alive, then he must already be rich, otherwise he would have sold his bitcoin.


There is no better tool for freedom of speech than #nostr. Nothing else is as resistant to censorship. Freedom tech is the future.


The data has been pretty good, so why are prices coming down? I haven't heard any bad news lately.


Is this still a bull market? Because it doesn't look like it.


I completely agree, but I think the boost from liquidity could run out. There are situations where liquidity fails to boost price levels, such as a liquidity trap.

But a meltup is a real possibility, one that I'm worried about. High rates and high debt could lead to runaway inflation. It appears people are betting on this scenario, judging by the price of bitcoin, gold, and silver. Bond yields keep going up, which also supports this hypothesis. But, the dollar hasn't gone down yet because the economy is strong, and bond yields are high. So there are some conflicting signals.


Don't stay out late and get drunk. Know when to cut yourself off


It doesn't look like the meltup is happening, but it's still early


And if he was satoshi, then I know for sure who isn't satoshi. But it happened so long ago that I can't say for certain who it was. Just a guy in his 20s. He might have had a name for it, but I don't remember. He told me it was going to be the future.


Rates will come down because they have to. There is too much debt for rates to stay high. They have to come down at some point.


Debt needs to be paid back in dollars


Why is everyone betting on inflation if it's coming down? If the government was printing too much money, wouldn't inflation go up?


Big tech will delay the green transition. They will consume as much energy as we can produce, which means we will need to use more fossil fuels. All of these nuclear plants will power these massive data centres, both of which require considerable amounts of carbon emissions to build. And all of these chips that are necessary. There is no way we can build and power all of these data centres without delaying the green transition.


AI is deflationary. If AI is as big as some people think, it should bring down prices significantly, in the future.


It happened so long ago, I didn't even think about it. But when I finally thought about the dates, it didn't make sense. It's been driving me crazy trying to figure out who that guy was. But it was so long ago, I can't remember that much about it. I just remember dating that girl, and thinking she would think I'm crazy if I even mentioned it. Imagine trying to explain bitcoin to someone back then, it sounded insane. I kinda thought that guy was on drugs


The US economy is being driven by deficit spending, and wealth inequality. That's why it seems unstoppable.


I refuse to believe Michael Saylor is smarter than Warren Buffet. Saylor is clearly buying the top, again.


It doesn't matter who wins the election, both parties have terrible economic policies


I'm not convinced this is just a dip


An epic bubble caused by the never-ending expansion of credit


The business cycle is almost over. Other countries are slowing down, and the US is next.


I don't think he told many people about it. Someone told me about bitcoin in early 2008, but they didn't use the name. He mentioned a distributed ledger, and mining for digital currency. He never said the words "bitcoin", "cryptocurrency", "blockchain", or "decentralization". But some guy in Vancouver knew about it, so who was he?


Why would the US destroy their own currency? It doesn't make sense


The global economy. The second possible outcome is fiat crashing.


This shit is going to crash. I don't know when, but it's going to be ugly. There are only 2 possible outcomes: a crash, or something much worse.


By concept, not by name


How many people would have known about bitcoin in 2008? There must have been more people than just satoshi


I'm pretty sure that guy on the bus was satoshi, but I'll never know. It was just a weird encounter I'll never forget.


Inflation isn't coming down because the government is printing money. And if rates rise, the government will have to print more money. This is why rates have to come down. The fed will keep rates high, or they will raise them, until inflation comes down.


If the US let stagflation happen, it would destroy the dollar. Stagflation will not happen.


I can't wait for this ridiculous bubble to pop. It's gotten completely insane. Everyone is drinking the kool-aid


No matter who wins the election, their policies will cause a recession. They can't kick the can forever. And a recession is the only way to get rates back down.


The US will end up like Japan. Look up the theory of debt deflation.


The stagflation hypothesis is flawed. Stagflation would almost certainly lead to hyperinflation. I think debt deflation is more likely. The government would have to really fuck up for stagflation to happen.


The craziest thing about that guy was that it happened in early 2008. I was 18, and he couldn't have been that much older than me. I wonder who he was.


In the late 2000s, I met someone on the bus who told me about bitcoin. I didn't know what the fuck he was talking about. Distributed ledger? Mining for digital currency by solving puzzles? I thought it might be legit, but there was no was I would be able to explain it to my girlfriend, so I should just forget about it.

Not listening to that crazy dude on the bus was the biggest mistake of my life. I still think about that day everytime I look at the price of bitcoin. He was young, and he definitely didn't look rich. I couldn't understand why anyone would want to do that. But he was right.


The US economy is strong, bond yields are high... why wouldn't anyone be bullish on the dollar?


People are ditching dollars because their money is becoming worthless. This is how a crackup boom starts.


Inflation is coming down, but everyone is still betting on inflation? Why? Bond yields keep going up. Do people really think there is going to be stagflation?


It's a crack-up boom. You don't think the government will stop it?


Saylor isn't a genius, he's just a regular bull.


Governments are increasing liquidity because their economies are slowing down. This is not bullish.


How can anyone resist buying US bonds at these prices? How much lower are they going to go?


Has anything ever happened to you that was so crazy, you can't believe it actually happened?


Deflation is more likely than runaway inflation. I don't know why everyone is betting on inflation.


anti-semitism


Bitcoin is going to 36k


Bitcoin, gold, and silver are all up. Bond yields are up. Everyone is betting on inflation. Nobody thinks the fed is going to cut until they hit the neutral rate, or they think the neutral rate is higher than previously estimated.

If people thought inflation was coming down, they would be buying bonds. If people thought rates were coming down, the dollar wouldn't be going up.


Just smoked a lollipop, think I'm gonna eat some soup


Been a while since I've been on nostr. I love how diverse it is, and I'm surprised at how well it works. It's just better than regular social media