Oddbean new post about login | logout Up to this point I think Saylor has been smart. 1. popularized a good balance sheet strategy of holding BTC 2. used low interest rate debt to speculatively attack the dollar Now I think he's getting too greedy. Yield and games on top of Bitcoin are a dumb idea. For the sake of the corporations watching him I hope he goes back to the basics.
This yield business will not end well https://media1.tenor.com/m/6ty_TBuSZdUAAAAC/popcorn-eating.gif
He will learn. He thinks he is the smartest person because he started a strategy. But he gonna play with fire and get burned
This note has me thinking about wax wings for some reason 🤔 🪽
I think he is playing a chess game. He won't hurt himself. In his position to start saying that dollar will just collapse is way to risky. It will collapse either way.
I agree he can't say that. I don't have a problem with it from a us corporate or play. I didn't love his comments on yield from the last saif interview. It's more about custody risk or letting bankers play with your coins Outside of that their talk was great. Two world views guessing at what the Bitcoin world will look like.
He’s way more trusting of banks because in his position, his debt is their problem. Recommending that to plebs is where I draw a hard line of disagreement. Also, in his hypothetical situation, if you’re a future retiree on a nice stack, you’ve put some time into it and you don’t wake up at 65 and say, oh shit, I forgot about yield!? Where’s my yield!? This is Saylor also not being able to admit once again, medium of exchange. His banker daddies aren’t gonna like that talk.
I enjoyed the Saif Saylor interview but they were certainly talking past one another on a few points. Also, they were speaking hypothetically about what they think 10 years out looks like in the financial space. Saif was talking further out in hyperbitcoinization land, which didn’t help set the table correctly for the conversation.
Yeah, this is a good read on it. I think it lead to it being more rough then the normal podcast were used to. I actually think its healthy that they disagree. none of us know what the 10 years looks like. I lean more towards Saifs worldview but it's helpful to picture both.
He even said to Saif something like, “now you’re getting all Maxi on me.” I’d wear that one as a badge of honor.
In 10 years, social security will be close to bankruptcy. If the traditional finance & political world is going to embrace bitcoin as a financial asset, it probably happens in the next 10 years.
I think Mike was sent out by Larry as the bitcoin ambassador to keep people focused on the current system. Larry may think Bitcoin is the hedge against the financial collapse, but he doesn't want it to happen any time soon.
