Oddbean new post about login | logout If you want to understand the threat of WW3 better, this video of a meeting of the International Peace Coalition by the Schiller Institute is very enlightening. Among other things: * Russia does not have launch detection satellites, they rely on ground radar to detect incoming ICBMs * Taking out their strategic defense radar has shortened their decision making time, perhaps to the level that they will turn on an automated response (no human decision necessary) * Politicians are almost completely focused on politics and don't know the technical details about what they are ordering. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrpXtDiJjgA
Neither you nor I "Know" what Russia does or doesn't have, militarily. I find it very very hard to believe that Russia doesn't have satellite technology to detect incoming ICBM's, I might, of course, be wrong though.
Anyone who says that the nation who invented space travel doesn't have equivalent or better technology than NATO makes me laugh.
That was my thinking my friend🤷🏻♂️. Back in the Cold War days, they almost certainly would have, so why not now🤔.
Now they reveal less. But even their outdated stuff is kicking ass now. I dont understand how people think that if the USA couldn't win in Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Vietnam, they think they can win in Ukraine?
It is bizzare mate. I follow geopolitics quite closely. Ultimately though, despite what we think we know, we know nothing. Nothing can be proved, everything is deniable. That is a consequence of the post truth era.
Agreed, but we can speculate intelligently and call out ridiculous speculation at the same time 😉
Indeed. @Magister Michael Dilger M.Sc. did elaborate on his initial post some moments ago with a concession or two. That's what I like about this space. Reasoned debate as opposed to outright abuse. Well done gentleman🫂.
I'm not saying it, I'm expressing what I heard in this video meeting. It was a suprise to me to hear that, and I certainly would have presumed otherwise, and that they would have had such systems at least since the 1980s. They shouldn't be hard to acquire or design/build and then launch. So like you I'm skeptical of that statement, and maybe the people in this meeting aren't vetting their sources well enough.
You're a very knowledgeable guy and I really like reading your notes, it's nice to have a reasoned debate as opposed to an argument. Refreshing🙏🏻.
Then there is this from CNN lol.... https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/11/politics/pentagon-russia-china-laser-threat/index.html
Yes and I've heard of (other? maybe the same) Russian satellite 'vehicles' launched into the orbit of a US government satellite and "tailing it"
Russians were first in space. Americans were so far behind they had to fake moon landings to save face. Before Elon Musk and Space X the International Space Station relied on Russian Soyuz to get astronauts to and from ISS. Still, i don't think these things matter and only people like you Mike even care about them. i doubt Russia will launch nukes at anybody, although it is always a good idea not to live next to any potential target of a nuclear attack. i remember after 911 working in Manhattan on relocating a bank datacenter out of NYC to secure it from nuclear attack and thinking - what about me ? i am still here LOL. i'm not in Manhattan now but i am within biking distance of a couple of air force bases that are legitimiate targets. i should move out of here LOL.
The Russian Nuclear Doctrine allows the use of strategic nuclear weapons to respond to any attack aimed at crippling Russia's nuclear forces. That requirement has already been fulfilled, via the strikes on it's strategic defense radar and strikes on the Engel's airbase hosting Russia's strategic nuclear bomber fleet, and destroying multiple bombers. According to their doctrine, Russia could launch nukes at any time. They aren't doing it presumably because they don't want to end the world. But this is encouraging the West to continue attacking Russia's nuclear infrastructure. I don't think this state of affairs can possibly last much longer. I think we will have a nuclear detonation within 30 days.
I agree with everything you've just said. I do ultimately agree with your last paragraph but not in that time frame. 12-18months for me, but we'll see eh. Either way, it ain't fucking good😕.
30 days bruh damn i'm livin it up this month
Ha ha, enjoy your June😬.
I don't think it will lead to all out nuclear war. I think that will be avoided. The reason I said "detonation" is to leave open various possibilities such as a nuclear test run by Russia in order to send a strong signal (in violation of a treaty), or a tactical nuke launched against Ukraine which also probably wouldn't escalate, at least not rapidly.