Oddbean new post about login | logout I think bitcoin being a widely used medium of exchange is a dream, just as the idea that bitcoin would replace banks was a dream that I heard repeatedly when I first got into bitcoin.
How does using it as a medium of exchange, change anything? How does replacing banks help you if you already own bitcoin? None of it matters; there are going to be fiat bag holders, and there are those that won’t be. The exit isn’t big enough for everyone. The world where everyone is saved by Bitcoin and no one suffers the consequences of the century of central banking can’t exist.
My point is that bitcoiners might be living in a dream. They certainly believed & definitely hoped to see the banks be replaced by bitcoin & it's my suspicion that bitcoin will not be the widely used MoE that some think it will. It already failed that in El Salvador. There are stories/narratives that bitcoiners hold on to such as "gradually, then suddenly" and "we are so early" to encourage holders to keep their convictions but after seven years I am beginning to question the validity of it all because without further adoption it dies. I will add that I hope I my concerns are unwarrented on this which is why I asked Jeff for his thoughts.
Again, why are you focused on medium of exchange. It is only one function of money, and in today's world the least important. We have a medium of exchange that currently works, for most people; why would Bitcoin replace it already? I use Bitcoin when I need it, and it works. I needed ivermectin and antibiotics, and I wanted some watches from russia. Bitcoin was the only way I could get those things. Adoption is not something that needs to be pushed. People will recognize superior money and choose it over inferior money. Hard money will impoverish those with softer money. It has happened many times through history. Africans, Indians, Chinese, the Yapese... A world where Bitcoin does not impoverish the holders of all soft money and money substitutes seems extremely unlikely.
" The world where everyone is saved by Bitcoin and no one suffers the consequences of the century of central banking can’t exist." This is a perfect example of what I mean. This story has been told over & over for years, you are just repeating it without truly questioning whether it is even feasible. It's a dream that the hodler convinces himself but it cannot happen without adoption.