Oddbean

TLDR; Japan fucked the market… Everyone was facing inflation but one country… JAPAN. This meant Japan was in stagflation, lowering rates, and actually had negative interest rates. When interest rates go up in the US, it becomes attractive to buy US treasuries especially the 10yr. People were getting loans in Japan at extremely low interest rates (call it in the 1%) and investing in Nvidia (example), making it an easy trade. Also to make it even juicier the Yen was going down in value so imagine this… You take out a $100,000 loan (of Yen) that you have to pay back w/ 1.5%, you go invest in tech stocks/treasuries. Let’s say you make 5%, that’s $5,000 profit, bringing you to a total of $105,000. You only have to pay back $101,000 in Yen, but also the Yen has gone down 20% in value, meaning you only have to pay back $80,000 (in Yen). And people keep on adding for YEARS to these loans because it’s getting cheaper and cheaper and free profits. Not to mention they are also using SOOO MUCH margin. So imagine this, they secure the 100k loan and get a 200k position, 100k margin in Nvidia. But wait… Japan decides to raise rates which increases the value of the Yen while everyone else is cutting rates (or about to) which decreases the value of said currency So Yen 📈 everyone else 📉, this makes paying off loans even more difficult and this doesn’t include the margin call. So now you have a 200k margin position on Nvidia, Nvidia is down 20%, so you’re down $40,000, on your position and get margin called. (More selling pressure) Now you have to pay back an extra $40,000. Meaning your $100k of equity is now $60,000, and now bank of Japan is margin calling you because you only have 60k of the 100k owed, but also the Yen is up 10%, so you really owe 110,000 of Yen. This is a super small example… it’s not 100,000, people think it’s 10trillion…

I think think replacing URLs with alternative front ends has some downsides for this bot. Sometimes they are unreliable and they are not so optimized on mobile (don't open the app if you have it installed). I think it would confuse some users. Otherwise I like the idea, but not sure how to integrate them without these downsides.

Too high for too long. Shit broke. Feds will convene to unbreak what they broke by bailing out their buddies and printing more money. They will say, without our intervention.... it would have been much worse. Of course we knew all along how this would end.

The majority of the population believes that inflation is due to climate change, not their lords deem "necessary quantitative easing". We are dealing with a keynesian stream in which logic flows like molasses.

tldr fiat doing fiat things ... But it started at the end of last week with the FED not dropping rates, jobs, unempr, and earnings doing poorly then Japan tried to raise their rates by .25% for the first time and everyone has been using the yen for tomfoolery... those trades began to unwind which caused mayhem all over that we are now feeling General sentiment is fed should have dropped rates by a lot and that they're late again

We always knew the Fed would be late. They've never ever pulled off a "soft landing", but all the mainstream economic pundits told us that this time it's different. So much hopium from the fiat ponzi promoters as usual.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25%. This made a bunch of people who had borrowed yen to gamble on stocks and other assets ( the "yen carry trade") unprofitible or nervous so they have been selling everything.

I just released a special episode on this topic breaking it down. IMHO there are four major events that are going to define the next few weeks. https://www.thisweekinbitcoin.show/episodepage/four-horseman-of-the-marketpocalypse

The market is mostly held up and has been inflated by passive index funds regularly funded by employers/employees 401ks that basically hold all the same stocks, once the inflows stop/reverse enough not to support the artificial valuations that’s the tipping point… and we’re getting close to that if not there now. Ponzi market

BOJ raising rates and using other interventions to defend the yen causing widespread panic among those leveraged long in the yen carry trade. Basically a gigantic margin call on a bunch of leveraged hedge fund degens.