Can I please get a quick TLDR on why markets are on fire at the moment? Thanks.

(Yes, yes, I know, I normally say I don't care about macro, but I am curious what's causing the global panic.)


Retard monkey see retard monkey do


This is a great summary regarding the Yen carry trade:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1ekgnov/uh_guys_whats_happening_right_now_im_not_ok/lgki05o/


Japan crash, America recession possibility.
Triggered algo timed sells.


What happened in Japan?


Thank you.


Too many bananas in the banana bread!


people trading on borrowed money and price falling below margin calls, tends to slingshot like this


Unrest in the Middle East


I bought the dip. It dipped more, so I bought more. Then it dipped even more, so I bought even more. Then even more it dipped, alsa I'm out of power.  Lol 😂


Came to post this.


Japan screams cause their house of cards fall down. Other countries scream cause Japan holds US treasury bonds and expects to sell. Other countries sell in hopes to beat US market open.


I love banana bread... And so does my lab who ate half of the loaf the last time I made some 😂


Too high for too long. Shit broke. Feds will convene to unbreak what they broke by bailing out their buddies and printing more money.

They will say, without our intervention.... it would have been much worse.

Of course we knew all along how this would end.


Keep dipping 😂 I need to wait a month to buy more 🥹


This explains it perfectly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HcB6ZrCLEY


That's been the case for 2000 years. What's new?


tldr fiat doing fiat things ... But

it started at the end of last week with the FED not dropping rates, jobs, unempr, and earnings doing poorly

then Japan tried to raise their rates by .25% for the first time and everyone has been using the yen for tomfoolery... those trades began to unwind which caused mayhem all over that we are now feeling

General sentiment is fed should have dropped rates by a lot and that they're late again


you mean the real thing or the excuse?


Why would people sell assets if money printing is coming? That sounds dumb?


Okay this makes sense.


it is dumb in the long term but they are trying to avoid the drop until printing hits and because the impact of rates may not be felt for a year


True but Israel killing a Hamas leader in Iran has escalated the situation. Iran may start retaliating today.

Financially unemployment rose last month.


We haven’t sacrificed enough dollars at the altar of Mother Nature.

It’s actually climate change doing all this.


Ah. Honestly I've been so busy that last week I haven't read much news. I didn't know that happened.


Think it’s a combination of financial and political issues. Ton of uncertainty until November.


That sounds too logical … 😅


The majority of the population believes that inflation is due to climate change, not their lords deem "necessary quantitative easing". We are dealing with a keynesian stream in which logic flows like molasses.


Powder keg fuse is getting shorter https://image.nostr.build/7f493bf864822c02ca393ca26f33820afd7a0e17c968c5f5d5e7e433810080e8.jpg


The yen is tanking. Japan is the largest debt holder of the US treasuries. If they can't buy anymore, the money printer is going to slow down, which... Is doomsday for so many dumb gist things.


We always knew the Fed would be late. They've never ever pulled off a "soft landing", but all the mainstream economic pundits told us that this time it's different.  So much hopium from the fiat ponzi promoters as usual.


Japan cut rates; USDJPY price reacts; folks sell stocks to get USD so they can cover their USDJPY forex trades & unload those positions.


interesting thanks for sharing 🤗


War!!


Liquidity trap. Everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs & they have to sell assets to service their debt.


The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25%.  This made a bunch of people who had borrowed yen to gamble on stocks and other assets ( the "yen carry trade") unprofitible or nervous so they have been selling everything.


So we're seeing people "rob Peter to pay Paul" as the saying goes?


Can I please get a quick TLDR on why markets are on fire at the moment? Thanks.

(Yes, yes, I know, I normally say I don't care about macro, but I am curious what's causing the global panic.)


TLDR; Japan fucked the market…

Everyone was facing inflation but one country… JAPAN.

This meant Japan was in stagflation, lowering rates, and actually had negative interest rates.

When interest rates go up in the US, it becomes attractive to buy US treasuries especially the 10yr.

People were getting loans in Japan at extremely low interest rates (call it in the 1%) and investing in Nvidia (example), making it an easy trade. Also to make it even juicier the Yen was going down in value so imagine this…

You take out a $100,000 loan (of Yen) that you have to pay back w/ 1.5%, you go invest in tech stocks/treasuries. Let’s say you make 5%, that’s $5,000 profit, bringing you to a total of $105,000. You only have to pay back $101,000 in Yen, but also the Yen has gone down 20% in value, meaning you only have to pay back $80,000 (in Yen). And people keep on adding for YEARS to these loans because it’s getting cheaper and cheaper and free profits.

Not to mention they are also using SOOO MUCH margin. So imagine this, they secure the 100k loan and get a 200k position, 100k margin in Nvidia.

But wait… Japan decides to raise rates which increases the value of the Yen while everyone else is cutting rates (or about to) which decreases the value of said currency

So Yen 📈 everyone else 📉, this makes paying off loans even more difficult and this doesn’t include the margin call.

So now you have a 200k margin position on Nvidia, Nvidia is down 20%, so you’re down $40,000, on your position and get margin called. (More selling pressure)

Now you have to pay back an extra $40,000. Meaning your $100k of equity is now $60,000, and now bank of Japan is margin calling you because you only have 60k of the 100k owed, but also the Yen is up 10%, so you really owe 110,000 of Yen.

This is a super small example… it’s not 100,000, people think it’s 10trillion…


simple and most plausible conclusion


Bank of Japan said no more extra wasabi


Baked some yesterday, so I am fairly certain this was the black swan that caused today's dump.


which lead to two major banks retracting the wasabi leading to a cascading soy sauce fountain of fuckery


in other words, too much sodium not enough wasabi. 🍣


also, the Jews in the Middle East 🤣


You can get around this by replacing the www.reddit.com part with a redlib instance like redlib.vimmer.dev

https://wikifreedia.xyz/redlib


Thanks for that!

nostr:npub1c4vv0nrfh0drcfchs2mndw4uvjkd9k393v20x4kme2txev9hhz0qw4cqk7 what would it take for you to add this to your functionality?


Aaaaand that is why I do not watch the news. Thank you sir, I will not sleep well tonight.


it's all fucked
that's why


Middle East war


I'm so disconnected from the news I don't know anything that's happening there.


Yeah it’s getting heated with Lebanon getting involved now.


Oh. I'll need to play catch-up later tonight. Thanks.


Definetely NOT, its the japanese market japanese banks fucked up


You think lebanon has anything to do with it?? 😂


I just released a special episode on this topic breaking it down. IMHO there are four major events that are going to define the next few weeks.

https://www.thisweekinbitcoin.show/episodepage/four-horseman-of-the-marketpocalypse


The market is mostly held up and has been inflated by passive index funds regularly funded by employers/employees 401ks that basically hold all the same stocks, once the inflows stop/reverse enough not to support the artificial valuations that’s the tipping point… and we’re getting close to that if not there now. Ponzi market


Lol.


And in a thin passive-dominated market this has disproportionate effects


This I feel is true but the dominance of passive strategies has amplified the volatility and is the underlying structural issue why the markets are high and distorted in the first place


When there’s waaaay too much debt and leverage out there even what should be small issues blow everything everywhere tf up all at once


SOUNDS FAKE AND GHEY


I think think replacing URLs with alternative front ends has some downsides for this bot. Sometimes they are unreliable and they are not so optimized on mobile (don't open the app if you have it installed). I think it would confuse some users.
Otherwise I like the idea, but not sure how to integrate them without these downsides.


BOJ raising rates and using other interventions to defend the yen causing widespread panic among those leveraged long in the yen carry trade. Basically a gigantic margin call on a bunch of leveraged hedge fund degens.


Can’t go up forever


I assure you Japan is real


I just provide both links when I can, or I use a redirect.invidious.io link since they offer official YouTube as one of the redirect options


Not sure if there are services like redirect.invidious.io for other frontends like redlib