Oddbean new post about login | logout I wonder with ETFs buying massive amounts and the halving to 3.125 whether the next bear market will have its 80% draw down as any big dips i would have thought will be bought up quickly by BlackRock / Fidelity and they’ll want to keep customers happy 🤷♂️
I think it'll be less this time, more like 50%
Yep, 50 makes sense and i doubt for long as bitcoin will be scarce and there’s money to be made from their products
What's your top of cycle prediction?
More sats 🤙
Don't know but from previous cycles the last ATH is usually the next cycles low (give or take some). So imo the current price would be future low IF we see a post-halving 80% correction. From this you can derive the approximate high of this cycle. Of course that's just game theory based on the past cycles.
ETFs will rebalance and might aggravate market swings. It will take them at least one cycle to learn to HODL if not more. Buckle up!
Also true. But I’d imagine the big players will harvest as they understand the scarcity. Unless of course they hedge on both sides and drive it down to harvest lower
The ETF buyers are just your average moron. Look at interviews with hedge fund managers and large investors on legacy media. They are idiots who went to the right schools and know the right people. They were assigned their station in life.
This is what I'm expecting. I think these ETFs guarantee the continuation of the cycles and big swings for a while longer, they're just a bigger version of retail.
Then cheap sats it is 🫡
it would take some unprecedented black swan to see those kind of drawdowns again imo.
I guess traders and fiat maxis will take profit and others will panic sell but yeah hard to imagine 80% down 🤷♂️
No body can predict a negative 80% Bitcoib vs USD nor a plus 800%, I think USD and all other fiat and crypto currencies are hyperinflating against #Bitcoin rightnow, in most currencies we already reach the inflection point of massive swings up such as Argentina Pesos, Turkish Lira, bitcoin cash, Monero, etc. I think it's going to be more volatile from here only people with enoug conviction won't get shake-out of their #Bitcoin position. The volatility will likely be from the wealthy people or big institutions who will make big purchases for a quick trade, since there won't be much bitcoins on exchanges to absorb the shocks the price will move violently up and down. We are on the verge of that inflection point with USD. USA is fighting multiple proxy-wars that they cannot afford, running massive deficits mainwhile the interest on their debt is exploding, interest that also need more money printing to be paid to avoid a default. The hyperinflation in Weimar Republic happens in the last few years of a long inflation process, it wasn't a slow rise of the gold price over a long period of time but sudden and quick up down but average price was still up in the end. Have a good weekend! https://image.nostr.build/c93a1f89719b54ee970a0901e18112fd8843c3a6ee3c2be37f4cbfe89afcfbc7.jpg
They have to buy Bitcoin as people buy their shares. If the cycle is over and Bitcoin corrects they'll have to sell Bitcoin as people sell their shares. So in short, we'll see if the paper hands will hold their paper Bitcoin.
In other words, massive sell off.
We will see but it's not up to the ETF issuer. not on a spot ETF.
I guess paper hands of the thinnest order. We’ve seen it countless times. Unless there’s a fiat collapse
So super cycle😆
Until it isn’t… again
Long term sure, but I don’t think this cycle. I think that volatility is still present. But who knows.
