Oddbean

I’m gonna put some direct numbers of this to let you decide. I think Bitcoin has a final price of around $5M a coin. Why? Total global wealth is currently $454T 21M coins at $5M a coin is around $100T about a quarter of that wealth. I think that is a realistic attribution. Yes, global wealth will increase over time, but in current value I think $5M is a fair estimate. That represents around a 100 fold increase in today’s price. What that means for you is for you to decide. nostr:note15ac5h056gsv0z4kqzhv0qs6l46uwy8k76hyh6wtfqgs5qk34gdhsn0n2rq

So global wealth can increase for 3 reasons. 1.inflation. That is just an increasing number with no increase in wealth. 2. Population increase. Population will increase to 11Bn until around the year 2050, when it will start to decline. More people generally means more wealth creation. 3. Productivity and technology wealth increase. This is real and increases the wealth per individual and will affect my price estimate in real terms.

It’s $900T not $454T. 50% is the most logical answer, half of every tx is money, half is not money. Personally, I think higher than 50% because of all the margin leverage (debt). Don’t forget to add in a multiplier effect to the price (really purchasing power), e.g. 50% means 2x, 66% means 3x, and so on. Disregard people who gotcha with printer go brr and global wealth increasing 🥴. I get them every time. The only metric that matters is % of total wealth. https://image.nostr.build/1f6e64bf6aff83c577ef3ee630abd79586ec469ea77897415ec2a2d6cf7f2cc7.jpg

Saylor agrees with $900T. This is not my first rodeo, I’ve had this exact exchange countless times. If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry. https://image.nostr.build/74fbb4763a6839e3f26140bed2c1d7dbdd5e9946d3fceaa87a2c4dda3fca8534.jpg

I have no interest in debating a moot point of global wealth, but I would urge you to avoid false prophets. DYOR was good advice which I chose to ignore. Telling me you’re right because somebody else said so is not good advice or a good philosophy to follow. Don’t follow my advice or listen to me, follow your own advice and DYOR and loose your ego. I don’t care if you’re right or wrong, neither should you.

the only target price in the long run for bitcoin in terms of fiat is mathematically infinite and cant be nothing different. Maybe 5 Million redenominated-$ (1 redenominanted-$ = 10000 $ , they will need to redenominate like shitcoiners to keep the price of bread at single digit prices) could be a medium/long target price for the next 4-5 cicle. For purchasing power I think we could reach some reasonable limit, but still noone is bullish enough and all are applying bad euristics based on giving too much credit today fiat prices and other fiat indicators. But seeing the past was always this the case: from Satoshi the goat himself that decided to define a "coin" at 100 million units because "based his my calculations when people will use it to buy things it will permit to express prices in single digit units like dollars" (something like that, I read it from recent-revealed email exchanges). Then on every cicle there are all the crowd that predicts bearish scenario like "it will double in price because my tech analisys bla bla" and some crazy dude that say it will reach 10000000000 millions, I feel it, if you sell thats fine, more sats for me. I decide to be that guy from this cicle. It will require time but will happen very fast, be prepared...