Oddbean new post about login | logout Most of us won't become more or less wealthy because of Bitcoin, directly. We really are too late and/or too poor for that. At best, Bitcoin might keep us from poverty, as an effective savings vehicle. Which is not nothing.
With all due respect, I think you are incredibly wrong on that one.
Perhaps. 🤷♀️ I got to Bitcoin years after you have and I'm just relieved to break even and not get crushed by market capture by the institutional players. I think I'm playing a different game: trying to stack with fiat pennies, in a race against people like Michael Saylor and Jamie Dimon and Allianz.
Everyone missed the bus. Everyone. https://dergigi.com/assets/images/bitcoin/2022-11-19-dear-crypto-fiat-bros/missed-the-bus.jpg
I think you aren't adequately accounting for wider deflation caused by economic collapse and demographic decline. I actually think Bitcoin is the best money for our time because the supply will eventually shrink along with the economy, thereby maintaining its purchasing power indefinitely. But Bitcoin isn't the only monetary system that can deflate. Fiat can also deflate. Bitcoin is the only one that can deflate _painlessly_
I concur
All of the gazillionaires agree that Bitcoin will make us all gazillionaires. 😂 How many people stacking in €20 or €200 increments, starting last year or so, would agree with that? Doubt any of us expect that. We hardly have any and we're collecting small amounts.
Here’s the math. If a person starts stacking $200 a week every week for 10 years. At the end they will have 1.3 million dollars. This assumes the bitcoin price goes to 1.7 million. 40% cagr https://image.nostr.build/9368fd13740ce33eabe9936c47478c3827ba0fd4a0a13b0cea0379c1d774e59c.jpg
Who do you think can afford to stack $200/week? 😂 That's what I mean. That doesn't even sound like a lot of money to you, but that's a lot of money. Most people can barely afford groceries. Do the math with something more realistic, like $50/week or $10/week. It's a nice pot of cash, but nobody is buying a lambo-and-a-bimbo with that.
Imo 90% of working age people living in the west can find $200 a week easily.
But here’s the math for $50 a week over 21 years. This assumes a 13 million dollar bitcoin price by 2045. Which is Arks base case. https://image.nostr.build/f8c098ffb18b89250dff93d4097a94373cba9f284022abe8c4b2acf34b3910a8.jpg
Argentina entry lvl job here. I can stack 50 a week if i'm degen enough without cutting the food budged.
Crushing it bro. Your bloodline will remember your name.
He has not said that he has a bloodline.
He will with a stack like that lol
Bitcoiners don't like to spend Bitcoin; just like to acquire more of it. Families make it harder to stack.
Start selling off everything that’s not useful to you and your family. I’m not sure about your personal situation, but if you have time, take on a side gig or a second job and use all that money to buy as much Bitcoin as you possibly can. One man’s junk is another man’s potpourri ~The Grinch
Useless advice, but thanks.
Well, you need THINK and then take some action about how you’re going to acquire more bitcoin. With an attitude like that, you will likely remain poor. All the best
Allow me a moment to speak 🗣️ freely -. 1. Don’t assume everyone online is who they portray themselves to be 2. Speak your truth always and then no need to consider anything other than speaking your truth or however you spend your time. Kindred….
Where do you get the 40% and 29.3% interest rates?
I doubt ! Most people are locked in debt and live paycheck to paycheck ! https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/banks/articles/new-survey-shows-most-middle-class-americans-are-struggling-to-save-money-how-do-you-compare/
Good grief. Where do you live? Where I live, many people don't even earn $200/week as wage-earners and many other people are effectively broke.
In Germany?
Yes, of course.
In the West of where? Of the US? Spain, France, Italy are major Western European economies, and the amount of "working age people" who can save 800-1000 dollars a month is very far from 90%. It's probably not even 30%.
Why is everyone so poor in Europe?
Taxation, mainly. It prevents the economy from developing, preys on the gains made in the past until they're gone, and then it directly steals whatever is left for people to earn.
Socialism
yeah guess what, since coming to Germany, I've been used to choosing carefully which meat to buy in a grocery and which fruit juice can i afford. it's fucking hilarious because back in China i could order takeout of fine made restaurants every meal, i never worried the cost of dining. I'm still trying to figure out why everything in Germany is so expensive while the services are so awful.
You live in a fantasy world.
How so? Is Ireland really that poor?
I can speak for Italy since my dad/grandpa fled their socialism for the US. There are very limited jobs. Low pay. Locked out of the international economy largely bc they don’t speak English. Avg salary like $2000/month. I would probably be driving a taxi if he didn’t immigrate to the US. The US is the land of opportunity. Americans view Europe thru a Hollywood lens where it is romanticized. That only exists if you have money. So yeah saving $200 a week isn’t happening let alone putting it into btc.
Yep. I buy 10 a week. With occasional one time purchases. I suppose I could eat Ramen noodles and Vienna sausages every day to up that but between taxes, food, rent and utilities that 30 an hour I make goes pretty quick. Plus the big hitter of paying off the debt I ran up in my 20s of course. Haven’t added anything new to the debt in years. How many people just getting into bitcoin are also paying off at least 10-20,000 in debt? Whether it’s credit cards, student loans, a car. Whatever it might be.
The amount of Bitcoin I'm stacking will make me one of the wealthiest women around, but I'm _already_ one of the wealthiest. Doesn't take much. Some just seem wealthier because they've bought snazzier cars and taken out bigger mortgages, and have fancier titles, but they're effectively broke. They don't have any real money or anything they could quickly liquidate for money.
componies are more difficult to hide compared to individuals, big properties are more difficult to hide comoared to little properties, the same for big money flows compared to little mony flows. A company today is a fiat nightmare, you cant avoid taxation, arbitrary regulations of any kind. You will also suffer in big the cantillon effect with market competitors state-owned literally playing another sport killing every market. Today a company is really really really problematic and I would open one only if the business I want to do is impossible to do in a parallel-economy way (would sell item on nostr for bitcoin instead of become a "licensed vendor of something" for example...).
The impact is more indirect, by changing the way financial markets work, and by raising the cost of incompetent central banking or excessive credit dispersal. Also, the new business models opening up with the advent of Magic Internet Money are very interesting to entrepreneurs.
Most of us will simply have to continue to "make money" the old-fashioned way: providing goods and services.
Always has been. https://dergigi.com/threads/flows
"The Bitcoin Standard is coming, it just won't happen overnight. It will happen one by one, individual by individual, company by company. Balance sheet by balance sheet." I agree with this, which is why I think some people owning companies might end up with the biggest stack, as companies can recapitalize with Bitcoin. Some of us will simply be better at picking or building companies, and then holding equity and receiving Bitcoin dividends or salaries from those companies, than individual stacking from a fiat day job income.
I'm trying to do both, and it's looking like the company might pull ahead. A company simply generates more value, faster, and has larger inflows.
Yes, most people will have to work their normal jobs until retirement, but, if you keep in bitcoin you will be able to save enough for a down-payment for a house, or to have a good saving for your retirement (very important!) and pass along to your kids, all thing we currently can't with fiat, bitcoin is hope not because it will make you rich but because you can work, save, and benifit from that in the future, it allows you to think, plan, save and have hope for your future.
I recently bought a house after saving for the down payment in dollars. The savings came from avoiding debt and investing in my education and personal development to land a good job. Saying you can't save for a house in fiat is just not true.
Seems pessimistic. If less than 1% of the world is using BTC then surely wealth with be generated when the other 99% jump on board.
If it scales linearly then my $500-ish worth of BTC will be worth.. carry the 1.. $50,000! Nice I guess but not exactly retirement money. And no I can't just buy more Bitcoin, with 6 kids I have other priorities.
I can't buy more because I'm not the only one controlling the spending of my household income and I have to compromise on financial transactions. That's the way it is for most people, but it is largely ignored when people talk about stacking. Or they brag about how stacking large amounts of Bitcoin against their spouse's wishes got them a newer, hotter spouse. Not all of us want to trade in our spouse with our fiat.
People brag about trading their wives because of bitcoin? Really?
💯💯💯💯💯
That does make me ponder if we will realize a scarcity of the production of new humans in our own lives. We either invest upfront in kids, or you invest in bitcoin and leave the family behind. So even if you end up with a big stack, in a decreasing population-world paying a younger healthier Real Human to take care of us as we age may become very, very expensive. So I'm just not sure how dreams of wealth in a world with a decreasing population work out.
Investing in humans reduces the ability to invest in Bitcoin. Everyone who faces this choice is actually lucky. Many people can only invest in Bitcoin.
Stack children! My wife gave me 6, there's no trading up on that.
I'd say it largely depends on how much you have and how old you are.
I do not disagree with you, its kind of the outlook we SHOULD have, Bitcoin is primarily a savings tool, and that is how it should be treated I also do think it is a pessimistic outlook, given the fact that there are a very small number of bitcoiners out there still. However bitcoin is meant to protect you from poverty, it may get you your lambo, but that shouldn't be the point.
I wanna be able to retire in 9 years
I effectively retired at 22, when I got married.
My husband is actually the only reason I own any Bitcoin. He taught me about saving money and long-term investing, paid for me to stay home and sperg out about crypto, and it's his income I stack with. Before I met him, I was always broke. I'd probably still be broke.
I have no idea why I was always broke. Money just seemed to disappear. Poof! Like a magic trick. I sound all snooty, now, but he had to teach me really basic stuff. I'd never even filed a tax return, before. Just let the government keep the change, every year. 😂
I literally knew nothing. I was financially retarded. I just learned all this stuff to impress him, and now I know more than he does about it and I'm Mrs. Smarty Pants and he finds that friggin annoying.
Long thread to nowhere and nobody. So Nostr. 😂
What you're describing is why Dave Ramsey is so successful as a financial coach here in the US. The person who's already smart enough with money to be rich knows you should pay down the highest-interest loan first, to beat debt. Dave Ramsey tells people to pay off the smallest debt first, because the psychological impact of seeing that progress is more valuable for someone who is poor and just learning how to handle money than whatever matematically optimum strategy might exist. Same thing with credit cards. Smart rich people who pay down the card every month to avoid interest payments will do fine, and reap the cash back rewards. Poor people who aren't financially savvy need to stay away from credit cards so they feel the impact of each transaction on the bank account.
I got started with Dave Ramsey, actually. And envelope budgeting. He's great.
My mom would listen to his radio show while taking my brothers and I on errands when we were kids. I did his course for high schoolers, too. Most of my basic personal finance knowledge comes from him, and I use the EveryDollar budgeting app his team created.
