Oddbean new post about login | logout Bitcoin will be scarce but it’s currently inflationary too
Because the entire future issuance is known it is not considered inflationary. You can simply assume 21 million supply, and with that, it's actually deflationary. Unlike gold which is an unlimited supply. See the difference?
No. Knowing something will be doesn’t mean it is right now. That’s sloppy reasoning. Bitcoin has a hard capped supply of 21M with a diminishing issuing rate. It will be deflationary long before its last halving but until then it is inflationary.
Inflation typically refers to the decrease in purchasing power of a currency over time due to an increase in the supply. When more money is printed or gold is mined, the value of each unit of currency decreases, leading to higher prices for goods and services. Since the supply of Bitcoin is fixed and cannot be increased, it does not suffer from inflation in the same way golds does. The inability to create more Bitcoin ensures that it remains scarce. What you are calling inflation is simply the issuance of an absolutely scarce commodity. It doesn't matter that it hasn't been issued yet, all that matters is that no more than 21 million can be created.
My fellow Bitcoiner, I’m happy you’re as bullish as I am on Bitcoin but what you’re saying is factually wrong. Additional 3.125 BTC block subsidy are being issued roughly every 10 minutes inflating current supply. That’s inflation. Future supply is irrelevant here. I get your point though. It will never be more than 21M and if that’s priced in, from a future me point of view it’s deflationary.
Supply is 21 million, impossible to inflate. What you are describing is issuance.
Let’s end it here. All the best to you 🫂
nooo, I'm curious now too.. isn't that issuance? the 21m already exists, they're just being issued according to a formula
That's correct, and this person's insistence on using the word "inflation" when he should be using "issuance" is only confusing to people who are just learning about bitcoin. This is why we make a clear distinction between the two, because the inflation of gold and fiat currencies and the issuance of bitcoin are completely different. Using the word inflation for the the issuance of bitcoin up to the 21 million cap is misleading and confusing.
Dude you’re wrong. Arrogance won’t change that. Just read the white paper. Satoshi himself said bitcoin would eventually become inflation free.
was there ever an Inflation bug and how did it get fixed, do you know?
That’s a different matter
ok nothing to do w inflation?
Inflation bug was about possible inflation of total *future* supply. When speaking about inflation we usually refer to *current* supply. Arguing with capped future supply to make the case bitcoin is deflationary now is bullocks for several reasons.
there's the thing maybe we need to update and specify the definition of inflation again to fit money with a capped supply 😂
i mean. not the first time 1941 https://image.nostr.build/071e0d4911620f9eadefef2e46d048accd52186ea493f3f3ac4758040133d294.jpg 1971 https://image.nostr.build/deffa2314840c10f31e50950653b18385316f6477379c5d65e6858065974017e.jpg
"paper money"
Gold has a capped supply. It’s just unknown. So it keeps inflating because inflation always refers to actual supply in the here and now and not to imaginary supply in the future. Bitcoin could have very well failed in its early years. Would it then have been inflationary or deflationary? If future capped supply makes a money deflationary, how do you measure or even call future increase in deflation by lost coinage? The definitions fit. They have to be applied correctly though.
I keep telling people Bitcoin has inflation too it’s just on a special schedule called the BLOCK REWARD 😬
Yeah. Bitcoin just feels deflationary in contrast to fiat and given how certain one can be on its fixed supply. Understandable mistake to think it’s already non-inflationary but realistically this will just a few halving before end of block subsidies be the case.
There was an issuance bug and it was fixed with an emergency hardfork.
Satoshi said a lot of things that were confusing and not designed for people who are not software engineers. You're wrong. Issuance is the correct term. Inflation is not correct.
Issuance inflates the supply, genius. But okay everyone including satoshi is wrong and you’re right. Lol
The supply is 21 million. Issuance increases the circulating supply and moves it toward the total supply. Satoshi was not wrong, he was imprecise.
And if you want to be even more precise and correct, there is no such thing as a bitcoin, that's just slang for 100 million satoshis, or bitcoin units. The total supply is 2,099,999,997,690,000 units.
You mean I don’t have to stack whole coins? 🤯
Yes, there is no such thing, at least in terms of the actual code and protocol, as a whole coin. There are no decimal places in the bitcoin protocol it's just integers. You can stack as many units as you want. What is colloquially referred to as a "whole bitcoin" is simply 100 million units... which themselves are colloquially referred to as Satoshi.
You’ll be dead in 100 years. Your corpse already exists, it’s just breathing a few last times according to biological predisposition.
😂 😂 😂
im not crazy goddanged what's your definition of inflation?
Increase of actual supply.
supply of money or non-monetary resources is kinda important in the definition otherwise it would be more correctly be called a "glut" or "bumper crop" or several other market segment specific terms for a decline in scarcity
The problem with the terms inflation and deflation is that they just indicate change of quantity (of monetary supply) but people interpret them as change in value, because after an complex interplay of different factors took place that’s the effect. However it remains just a change of quantities.
most people can't even compute second order consequences... the education system and media has made them this way
The world has become too abstract and complex for most of the IQ levels present in societies. It will get worse before it gets better
it harms me, in short term, materialistic ways to obey my intellect but when the herd is headed for the slaughterhouse the value of it becomes clear
Yes hopefully you understand now. Gold has an infinite supply, it's inflation is based on price. As the price of gold increases it's more cost effective to mine it, increasing inflation. Bitcoin is absolutely scarce. It has a fixed supply of 21 million, which is issued over the first 120 or so years. This fixed supply does not suffer from inflation because it is impossible to increase the supply of bitcoin. Hopefully this is clear to you now.
You’re still wrong. Read the white paper.
I read the white paper a long time ago. It's incredibly incomplete and also misleading in many ways. It was just a brief introduction to Bitcoin and it left out many important details about the protocol. The difference between inflation and issuance was not clearly understood at that time. Only later when bitcoin started to be explained to normies who are not software engineers, such as yourself, did people who were trying to help others understand begin to bifurcate the words and use them more accurately to facilitate learning and communication.
