Oddbean new post about login | logout What has the big money been doing for the past few years? Corporation Cash reserves: Berkshire Hathaway: $325B (record cash) Alphabet: $101B Amazon: $74B Microsoft: $78B Apple: $61B Meta: $58B Tesla: $34B Nvidia: $34B On top of this, the execs of these corporations have gradually been selling their shares over the past 2 years. Call me crazy, but I think this is painting quite the picture, but retail seems to largely be ignoring this. I would be (and have been) stacking fiat.
That's quite a contrary view (most people are expecting FIAT to lose value much faster), the money in the bank is not yours, you're holding cash I assume? I don't know where it's going to, when it's taken out of the market, I would assume it's not staying idle on their bank accounts. Could you elaborate? I love hearing different opinions and ideas!
Most people are usually wrong. That's not to say I'm right here, I definitely don't know what the future holds. If anything, the future is less certain and more confusing than it has been for a long time. I keep very little in the bank, just living expenses and I purposely live on credit paid off monthly. The rest of my cash is in 'stable' coins. I can't say for sure what the big boys are anticipating, but their actions suggest they're not terribly confident in the markets. Bitcoin should have slammed through the ATH easily, it barely and briefly broke through. The month's long ranging has me very skeptical of what will happen next. I think all the seemingly positive news of institutions arriving is potentially just there to sell hopium to the average person. The emotional manipulation is crazy when all people expect is up. I've tried to prepare for either outcome so I'm happy with where I'm at no matter what happens.
Are you implying a stock market crash?
Crypto too. I don't try and predict timelines or pretend to know, but I think it is very possible. These guys are clearly protecting their wealth.
Buffet is (supposedly) holding cash. He (supposedly) always does this before a crash, so he can execute his strategy of buying when there's blood in the street. And it would fit the pattern of crash and money printer coinciding with btc supply crunch. So... Its gonna pop!
I think people are mistaken if they think Bitcoin will be a safe haven in the even this does happen. There has been no indication of any decoupling.
event*
I'm skeptical that there'll ever be a decoupling. Anyways, I'm just relaying what I've heard, and I know this has happened many times already. 2020 was an example. Credit expsnsion -> yield curves inversion -> Deflationary event (the pop) -> printer go brr.
That is how most are looking at it and what is being anticipated, but there are factors we simply cannot account for as regular plebs. We don't have the same insights as the moneychangers. It is hard to ignore what the big money has been doing though.
Bold strategy. I always keep 6 months cash but holding cash really hasn’t been the ideal play vs holding Bitcoin. Past 5 years USD has ostensibly lost 50% of its purchasing power vs real goods. Whereas Bitcoin has seen > 600% spot price appreciation in the same timeframe.
Yeah, this is on top of any 'emergency' funds I keep on hand. I'm not selling my corn either way, but I haven't stacked since $20k. I allocated a little extra cash and sold that portion gradually as the price went back up.
You just missed out on a 3x in fiat terms. Not sure I understand your logic for stacking fiat.
Huh? No, I last bought at $20k and banked ~3x in fiat terms. I laid out my logic for holding fiat above.
Essentially, I don't think we'll be seeing $100k anytime soon. I'm still holding the cheap sats I acquired and I won't be selling those. But if the markets do crash, I have fresh fiat to buy more corn.
Good luck with that strategy. I think $100k isn't far off at all and wouldnt hold fiat no matter the price.
I’m way too scared to do that. I’m trying to be completely out of the fiat system by 2028. Need more corn. Feels like any day spot price is going to run away and my stacks will be multiples smaller in sats/usd.
Honestly, I HOPE I'm wrong. If this did happen, a lot of people would be in a bad situation due to overestimated the market as a whole.
If a year elapsed and there was no crash and Bitcoin was trading over 100k USD, fed funds rate at 4%, s&p over 6000, would you dump your fiat in?
Nope, I have enough. I can and do put money to work through my businesses. If I've learned one thing through trading, it's not to buy high, regardless of the asset. No one saw FTX coming, and there are plenty of snakes still hiding in this industry.
Bitcoin by many metrics (hash rate, network effects / adoption, s curve potential, TAM, novel utility) is quite cheap. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t dump but I will always take the other side of the bet with Bitcoin.
I mean, I am still mostly in Bitcoin, it was just accumulated at significantly lower prices so if things did dump, it's not a problem.
That’s fair I’m just offering my perspective.
It's totally understandable, for sure. There is plenty to be bullish about. I guess as long as people continue thinking long-term, they'll be fine regardless of how long it takes or how much it could potentially drop. I've seen too many people enter at the wrong time, not spend enough time on learning what it is they are getting into, only to be shaken out and burned.