Oddbean new post about login | logout Bold strategy. I always keep 6 months cash but holding cash really hasn’t been the ideal play vs holding Bitcoin. Past 5 years USD has ostensibly lost 50% of its purchasing power vs real goods. Whereas Bitcoin has seen > 600% spot price appreciation in the same timeframe.
Yeah, this is on top of any 'emergency' funds I keep on hand. I'm not selling my corn either way, but I haven't stacked since $20k. I allocated a little extra cash and sold that portion gradually as the price went back up.
You just missed out on a 3x in fiat terms. Not sure I understand your logic for stacking fiat.
Huh? No, I last bought at $20k and banked ~3x in fiat terms. I laid out my logic for holding fiat above.
Essentially, I don't think we'll be seeing $100k anytime soon. I'm still holding the cheap sats I acquired and I won't be selling those. But if the markets do crash, I have fresh fiat to buy more corn.
Good luck with that strategy. I think $100k isn't far off at all and wouldnt hold fiat no matter the price.
I’m way too scared to do that. I’m trying to be completely out of the fiat system by 2028. Need more corn. Feels like any day spot price is going to run away and my stacks will be multiples smaller in sats/usd.
Honestly, I HOPE I'm wrong. If this did happen, a lot of people would be in a bad situation due to overestimated the market as a whole.
If a year elapsed and there was no crash and Bitcoin was trading over 100k USD, fed funds rate at 4%, s&p over 6000, would you dump your fiat in?
Nope, I have enough. I can and do put money to work through my businesses. If I've learned one thing through trading, it's not to buy high, regardless of the asset. No one saw FTX coming, and there are plenty of snakes still hiding in this industry.
Bitcoin by many metrics (hash rate, network effects / adoption, s curve potential, TAM, novel utility) is quite cheap. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t dump but I will always take the other side of the bet with Bitcoin.
I mean, I am still mostly in Bitcoin, it was just accumulated at significantly lower prices so if things did dump, it's not a problem.
That’s fair I’m just offering my perspective.
It's totally understandable, for sure. There is plenty to be bullish about. I guess as long as people continue thinking long-term, they'll be fine regardless of how long it takes or how much it could potentially drop. I've seen too many people enter at the wrong time, not spend enough time on learning what it is they are getting into, only to be shaken out and burned.