Oddbean new post about login | logout What are the chances of Bitcoin being at $450k usd in 12 months from now? #asknostr
According to nostr:nprofile1qqsg2zqd8wkhpnxu6lm5c2dyfa2mhpwte57apjae2ldp6g2mmwf3ypqpz9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7v5unzt nostr:nprofile1qqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmgprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvq9n8wumn8ghj7enfd36x2u3wdehhxarj9emkjmn99ah8qatzx9e8gmr3vdsnsu3kv96hjcthx4hr26pnds6ngv3jv3kngumj0y6kg7nxv4jngd3exen8zefcwvm8zem4v34hxdmydf6xvuelvfex7ctyvdshxapaw3e82egpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejs5mzk3a and nostr:nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz4mhxue69uhhwmm59eek7anzd96zu6r0wd6qz9thwden5te0wahhgtnnd9sk6um5wghxxmmdqyf8wumn8ghj7am0wsh82arcduhx7mn9cea889 it's within the realm of possibility. Also according to me. But I'm just a random pleb.
Totally plausible. And then back to $215k
$420,069 or I delete this post. (Wait, I can’t.)
Why can you not delete it?
I can request to delete it, but that’s up to the relays. (Nothing can ever be truly deleted.)
Probably some stuff relays are legally obliged to delete.
Because it's nostr, lol. Not all relays honor deletion requests.
I do not know. I would rather not use such relays. Or why would one?
I’m not sure how many honor deletion. Not a lot.
Almost everything I requested to delete was always deleted. Why would one not honor it? Freeing up space is not bad for anyone.
Ever read that part in @Snowden’s book where he explains how data on storage devices isn’t really deleted? It’s kind of like that, but a more transparent way of illustrating how things you post on the internet are not guaranteed to be removed when you want them to be.
Yes. But one has to count the networkeffect. A person with 100mio followers can assume that every post is copied screenshotted or something. An account with only a million followers, can probably say that there is still the possibility any comment could be fotograpfed. But an account of 10k followers or less is probably very unlikely someone would care to screenshot every shitpost. And this with snowden has nothing to do with this. Snowden is concerned about state surveillance. So he talks there rather about technical implementations of deletion. But this does not matter, when the owner of the storage has no intrest in recovering the information.
My point is simply that delete is not delete and a malicious or otherwise uncooperative relay runner could choose to target an individual npub either on their own or at the request of law enforcement.
Ok. Yes this for sure is true.
0
Not even a small percentage chance? Interesting
Nope. Pure hopium
How can you be so sure for 0%
How many dollars you bet against?
Last bullrun was cut short. Ftx contributed to not hitting 100k last cycle. So we all afraid now to put such a high target. I think we could hit 450k. But I don't think the ETF holders will continue to hold when they see 3x or above. These are people who are used to 10% / year. 300% in one year, I just don't see them holding. So maybe we only make 200k. Too hard to say. To be totally honest I don't know, I can't say with confidence at all. If countries get involved, Argentina, Trump win - US start buying, then other big countries join in, then we could blast past 450k. Come on Trump... you can do it ✊✊✊
It's non zero. 10% would be my gut feel as it implies we reach & sustain that level. 25% chance we hit it in the next 18 months.
Probability wise the easiest way to determine this would be to use the Delta which incorporates current implied volatility. I’m on mobile so I don’t have my Options trading app up to go that far out in time. But basically the 20 Delta which is ~68% expected move proxy on the bell curve, or 1σ on the Puts and Calls of the BTC Futures contract (perpetual) would place BTC’s expected move to be ~ $83,150 to $155,750 If implied vol changes (which it does as it is not a constant) then the expected move will also change and could expand to a 2σ or 3σ move.
The above is based on current volatility and target date Oct 25
Thanks for sharing. I think that range you mention is much more achievable. What's interesting from the commentary I heard today, was that the China mining ban in 2021 seriously dampened that blow off top. If that's true, then a lot of the technical stuff is undershooting this bull run...
hard to tell, Bitcoin always does what people expect the least
I least expect $2M Bitcoin in 2 months.....
I want to say I am confident, but been in this space long enough to know that things often take longer than expected and then move faster than I ever thought possible. We will get there eventually though!
I think it’s possible, but I think it’s also possible that a Honda Civic will cost $450k 12 months from now. 😂